Preview 2021 Qualifying Final vs Geelong

[Granny Duurs is Lovely]

Stewart was their best player this year and is out with injury. He was also their best player when we played them in rd 13 - this gives us a huge advantage compared to the game earlier in the year which was already a massive outlier.

We lost that game with a score of 91 - normally if we kick 80+ we win this year. The Geelong game was the one time we got baited into a shootout that we lost. Play it on our terms and we'll win.

 

[TeeKray]

Statement of the obvious but the key to beating Geelong is finding a way to limit the impact of Hawkins and Cameron who are probably the two best key forwards in the league. Hawkins has kicked 54 in 22 games and Cameron 34 in 12 games.

Last time out Cameron kicked 5 and Hawkins 4 - a big fat F for FAIL from us on that count. If we can limit them to 4 or 5 between them then we should be at least in the game.

 

[afl2004]

Statement of the obvious but the key to beating Geelong is finding a way to limit the impact of Hawkins and Cameron who are probably the two best key forwards in the league. Hawkins has kicked 54 in 22 games and Cameron 34 in 12 games.

Last time out Cameron kicked 5 and Hawkins 4 - a big fat F for FAIL from us on that count. If we can limit them to 4 or 5 between them then we should be at least in the game.

Did the cannon play that night ??

 

[TeeKray]

Did the cannon play that night ??

Yep.

 

[afl2004]

Yep.

Must of been low on gun powder, no false this time

 

[philreich]

Never mind their goal kicking - what about ours? We were 1:8 at half time last night: do that again, and we'll be playing a home semi final.

 

[Papa G]

We are winning this flag. Called it a month ago.

 

[Incarnate]

Watch these pricks target our outsiders, usual suspects, no finger pointing required.

 

[TeeKray]

I reckon if you got the 18 coaches to do an IQ test this match up would pit the one with the highest IQ against the one with the lowest IQ. Let's see if our superior talent can overcome that handicap.

 

[afl2004]

I reckon if you got the 18 coaches to do an IQ test this match up would pit the one with the highest IQ against the one with the lowest IQ. Let's see if our superior talent can overcome that handicap.

Always said only way can win the flag if we have too much talent for hinkley to even ruin

 

[Pickett4GOAT]

On the Geelong forum they are rationalising their sad capitulation by assuring themselves that the situation hasn’t changed for them. They seem to think facing us at home with 30k Port supporters will be no more difficult than the neutral final they would have played against Brisbane at Adelaide Oval had they finished top. This is going to be fun.

 

[Visenfest]

I want us to absolutely maul them.

 

[Chewy316]

I was hoping Melbourne would win because I wanted nothing to do with them next week. They move the ball as quick as any in the competition, have an elite ruck/midfield group, and 3 of the best intercept tall defenders in the league. Matchup wise it would hard pressed to pick any other personnel to play against us.

Geelong on the other hand - they're old, real old. Old and slow - they're not beating anyone in a foot race. Their #1 intercept defender is out, Duncan and Tuohy are under big injury clouds. Selwood and Dangerfield are not the same players they were in previous years - and they don't have a true #1 ruck to give silver service to their on-ballers at stoppage.

Where they are incredibly strong, is their forward line. Hawkins and Cameron are the best tall forward duo in the competition. And as much as I can't stand Gary Rohan

23

Gary Rohan

Age

32

Ht

189cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.6

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

4star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.8

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

4.2

5star

G

1.2

4star

, he has a habit of popping up in big moments against us.

Last time we played Geelong, it was a shootout. We were cruising early in the 2nd quarter up 4 goals and then went to sleep. We then turned it on early in the last quarter, got up by 9 points, and went to sleep again. It was a really poor end to a game whereby I felt like we probably should have won. Hawkins kicked 4.4, Cameron 5 straight and Rohan 3.2. That's 12 out of 17 goals kicked by just 3 players. If those 3 get of the leash again, we aren't going to win.

What pissed me off most about our most recent matchup was they were able to kick 6 goals from just 12 inside 50 entries in the last quarter. That simply can't happen again in a final. And I don't expect to happen on Friday - finals always tend to be a much harder, grittier affair where goals are a premium.

How to stop Hawkins and Cameron? The Hawkins plan is fairly established. He's going to have his chances. Force him extremely wide - give him those chances 50m out right on the boundary where his backside is hanging into the first row of the crowd. If he makes that kick, good on him, nothing we can do about it. But don't give him anything within 30 metres. He will nail them.

As for Cameron, our plan against him last time simply did not work. It was probably Aliir's worst game of the season - was truly given a bath. Do we go back to that well? Aliir spent a ton of time on Naughton on Friday, and outside of one time where the ball was delivered low and quick in the first quarter, Aliir kept him in check. Do we give Aliir another chance against Cameron? I personally wouldn't. Cameron is not one to be a high-flier going up for a screamer in the packs. He is someone who loves getting it lace out chest height on the lead. That is precisely what is Aliir's kryptonite. From my perspective, I'm giving this job to our captain TJ. Has enough pace to keep up with Cameron - and Jonas also has a solid history of handling bigger key forwards and doing well in those matchups. This would allow Aliir to drop off to limit Hawkins' space on leads. I would also be putting Burton on Rohan. Perfect matchup for us there imo.

Is this game going to be easy? Definitely not. But I think we have enough players hitting form at the right time of the season to give Geelong significant problems. Last time we met, we had Farrell, SPP, Georgiades, Jones and Woodcock that will likely not be playing this time round. In place of those are Fantasia, Lycett, Butters, Duursma and (most likely) Mayes as the sub. Furthermore, our midfield is a lot stronger now than it was earlier in the season, our trio of Wines, Boak and Robbie couldn't be playing much better at this point. I don't think we will get a better opportunity to get a home prelim than the opportunity presented this Friday night. Time to grab it with both hands and give our players a solid week off.

 

[The Hobo]

Must of been low on gun powder, no false this time

Love him, but he's undersized against Hawk.. His strength means he can usually over power the taller opponents, but Hawkins is a beast.

Aliir ran out of gas after Cameron ran him up and down the ground.

I really think Clurey needs to come in to give us a plan B. He is also super fit so can go with Cameron. (well, he used to be, I'm assuming he still is)

 

[The Hobo]

I know Geelong just gave up a 44 point lead, but that is extremely uncharacteristic of them.

We have given up decent leads in the last 4 weeks before coming back - we can't afford to let the game slip early against them.

 

[PowerBaz]

We are winning this flag. Called it a month ago.

Schnitty on Papa G.

 

[Astronema]

I reckon if you got the 18 coaches to do an IQ test this match up would pit the one with the highest IQ against the one with the lowest IQ. Let's see if our superior talent can overcome that handicap.

IQ is literally a worthless pseudoscience, so if this were true it would be essentially meaningless :3

 

[Dark24]

I reckon if you got the 18 coaches to do an IQ test this match up would pit the one with the highest IQ against the one with the lowest IQ. Let's see if our superior talent can overcome that handicap.

Same could be said if you measured EQ but you’d flip the results. Which is more important?

 

[TeeKray]

Same could be said if you measured EQ but you’d flip the results. Which is more important?

1 premiership, 2 grand finals, 6 prelim finals, 10 finals series

v

0 premierships, 0 grand finals, 2 prelim finals, 5 finals series

You tell me lol.

 

[Young Gun #6]

A lot are confident they’ll beat us over on the Geelong board.

I’m very confident we’re a better side than them let alone it being at home in front of our fans. However, in saying that still don’t trust us one bit.

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

Based on history our home ground/home fans don't give us any advantage at all

 

[EskimoPAFC]

The ultimate battle between good and evil.

 

[backtozero]

A lot are confident they’ll beat us over on the Geelong board.

I’m very confident we’re a better side than them let alone it being at home in front of our fans. However, in saying that still don’t trust us one bit.

They have every right to be confident. Doesn't mean they'll win though.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

A lot are confident they’ll beat us over on the Geelong board.

I’m very confident we’re a better side than them let alone it being at home in front of our fans. However, in saying that still don’t trust us one bit.

I think a lot of people put a line through port early on when we lost to all the top sides. Not many have realised how different our current side is to that one.

That said I reckon this goes either way. Think we might have just enough to get it done.

 

[FishingRick04]

A lot are confident they’ll beat us over on the Geelong board.

I’m very confident we’re a better side than them let alone it being at home in front of our fans. However, in saying that still don’t trust us one bit.

I think they are entitled to be