Prediction 2022 ladder after 23 rounds

[Billy ray]

i got this doing my tips for remaining 80+ games



this would suit my wildcard idea whereby top 7 is set and next two best percentages play off for final 8th position (9th GC at 115% v 11th WB at 109%)

 

[Falcon3518]

Last night was crucial for us.

Looking at our fixture, I can fairly confidently say with respect that Eagles, North Melbourne and Essendon in the final game should all be fairly comfortable wins and potentially percentage boosters.
That would take Richmond to 11 wins for the season.

Based on a reasonable percentage, I think 13 wins could get us into finals, which means we still need to win 2 out of:
Geelong (MCG)
Suns (Metricon)
Freo (Marvel)
Brisbane (MCG)
Port Adealide (AO)
Hawthorn (MCG)

None of those are given, and some of them are quite tough, but I think out of Suns, Port and Hawks, we can pinch at least 2 of them.

Likely losses are Cats, Freo and Brisbane, but again none are unbeatable.

The only way we make top 4 is by beating cats, Gold Coast and port. And at least 1 of lions or Freo. Tough ask but all the other games are guaranteed wins.

 

[WaywardSonSon]

The only way we make top 4 is by beating cats, Gold Coast and port. And at least 1 of lions or Freo. Tough ask but all the other games are guaranteed wins.

Essendon aren't a guaranteed win...

 

[blueiris]

Essendon aren't a guaranteed win...

They should let Tim Watson give them a speech every week

 

[Falcon3518]

Essendon aren't a guaranteed win...

They will be in round 23. Teams that can’t make finals drop off and stop trying in the last 1/4 of the season. Bottom 6 teams start getting absolutely smashed. Finals contenders get harder as they have something to play for.

 

[terrybull]

So many wrong predictions.

I think I’ll wait to my ladder prediction after Round 23.

 

[Obzerva]

They will be in round 23. Teams that can’t make finals drop off and stop trying in the last 1/4 of the season. Bottom 6 teams start getting absolutely smashed. Finals contenders get harder as they have something to play for.

I’m just imagining the scores when the Eagles and NM start to get smashed in the last 1/4 of the season!

 

[dean33]

Essendon aren't a guaranteed win...

Considering we’ve won our last dozen against them, I’m fairly confident we take care of them again.

 

[footyfan1978]

So many wrong predictions.

I think I’ll wait to my ladder prediction after Round 23.

I just had a look at some of the fixtures for teams and looks very volatile for teams in top half of ladder.
A lot of teams play each other in top half so exact positions in top 8 are anything but fixed.

Bottom two of North and Eagles looks only thing close to a sure thing at this point and anyone in bottom six is totally out of finals race already.

 

[Worm4]

i got this doing my tips for remaining 80+ games

View attachment 1426134

this would suit my wildcard idea whereby top 7 is set and next two best percentages play off for final 8th position (9th GC at 115% v 11th WB at 109%)

Swans not to lose a game for the remaining rounds I don't think so

 

[Wolfgang West]

Swans not to lose a game for the remaining rounds I don't think so

Swans could lose to ****ing Quambatook such is there
Jekyll and Hyde s**t.

 

[Falcon3518]

I’m just imagining the scores when the Eagles and NM start to get smashed in the last 1/4 of the season!

Oh yeah bad, WC might be ok if they get personnel back. They did so well against the cats. I’m not sure if the cats are s**t or Eagles are somewhat competitive now.

 

[Macca180]

Brisbane
Freo
Geelong
Melbourne
Ricmond
Sydney

Then last 2 spots down to percentage out of....

Carlton
Bulldogs
Pies
Gold Coast

 

[kaiserchief13]

Brisbane
Freo
Geelong
Melbourne
Ricmond
Sydney

Then last 2 spots down to percentage out of....

Carlton
Bulldogs
Pies
Gold Coast

Don't think Sydney or Richmond are locked. 1 unexpected loss by either and they are outside the top 8

 

[Purple Suit]

Massive round coming up. 4 games involving two top 8 teams and they are at most just 2 spots away from each other. A whole round of the old 8 point game.

Even the bottom of the table are playing each other.

 

[WCE_phil]

Oh yeah bad, WC might be ok if they get personnel back. They did so well against the cats. I’m not sure if the cats are s**t or Eagles are somewhat competitive now.

While the game against Geelong was a huge positive our structure particularly moving Yeo back probably works best against geelong. Against fast running teams I still think West Coast will lose pretty much every game for the season. We can probably pinch the game against adelaide at Optus but I have that down as our only win.

I think north will come out and beat Adelaide in Tasmania.

North highly likely for 18th now.

 

[lewdogs]

Brisbane
Freo
Geelong
Melbourne
Ricmond
Sydney

Then last 2 spots down to percentage out of....

Carlton
Bulldogs
Pies
Gold Coast

So we are completely out of the picture?

 

[Macca180]

So we are completely out of the picture?

Yes.

 

[Freomaniac]

That moment I realise a random list generator makes some good calls. Though, there's a few bad ones (North Melbourne, Geelong)
But overall. Not bad.

I guess your team didn't tank hard enough lol

 

[Gavin Excell]

That was a big win by Carlton
I wondered whether they'd fall away second half season but they look safe now

St Kilda look gone

 

[Freomaniac]

After 2 rounds, we need to reconsider expectations on:

Swans (could make an argument for being flag favourite)
Carlton
Collingwood
Hawthorn
Gold Coast
Port

I would like to give Dogs and Dons more time as I can see in their games some really good footy.

Today's match against Tigers v GWS will tell us about those two teams only if Tigers win.

Nothing changes re Melb and Brisbane. Expectation still very high. Cats moderately high.

Equally Kangas, Crows and Eagles expectation are low.

Saints and Freo are the two that could find themselves in no man's land.

Loving how even the comp is and loving how well the new coaches are doing!

Redrawing the ladder:

Swans
Dees
Lions
Blues
Dogs
Cats
Suns
Giants

Pies
Hawks
Tigers
Port
Dons
Freo
Saints
Kangas
Eagles
Crows

Freo didn't look like on no man's land from rounds 3 to 8.

Saying that, the worst thing any team can do is finish 9th or 10th.

I rather get 8th spot and lost by 60-90 points in an elimination final than 9th

 

[Freomaniac]

View attachment 1391515

Wow Freo in a preliminary final

 

[Freomaniac]

My last attempt at a ladder before the season starts. If u asked me to make a ladder without using squiggle it wouldn’t look anything like this.

		W	L	D	%
1.	Brisbane Lions	18	4	0	118.4%
2.	Sydney	18	4	0	115.4%
3.	Melbourne	17	5	0	116.8%
4.	Western Bulldogs	17	5	0	115.1%
5.	Port Adelaide	17	5	0	114.9%
6.	Geelong	17	5	0	114.5%
7.	Essendon	15	7	0	108.7%
8.	Carlton	15	7	0	106.0%
9.	GWS	13	9	0	105.4%
10.	Gold Coast	12	10	0	99.1%
11.	Richmond	11	11	0	99.3%
12.	Fremantle	7	15	0	91.1%
13.	St Kilda	4	18	0	87.6%
14.	Hawthorn	4	18	0	87.5%
15.	Adelaide	4	18	0	85.1%
16.	Collingwood	3	19	0	84.9%
17.	West Coast	3	19	0	83.9%
18.	North Melbourne	3	19	0	83.1%

QF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Western Bulldogs
QF2: Sydney v MELBOURNE
EF1: PORT ADELAIDE v Carlton
EF2: Geelong v ESSENDON

SF1: WESTERN BULLDOGS v Port Adelaide
SF2: SYDNEY v Essendon

PF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Sydney
PF2: MELBOURNE v Western Bulldogs

That ladder is amazing

 

[Pure_Ownage]

This is the hardest year in years to predict the ladder but ive gone:
1. Melb 17-5
2. Geelong 17-5
3. Syd 16-6
4. Brisbane 16-6
5. Carlton 16-6
6. Richmond 14-8
7. Freo 14-8
8. Gold Coast 13-9
9. Coll 13-9
10. Bulldogs 12-10

I think geelong will win most of our remaining games but i doubt we catch melbournes %. As i have multiple teams on the same points % will be crucial and i think carltons poor %might cost them top 4 but that could change. I had the suns and coll separated by 3 % (and the dogs only one game behind)so whether the suns can beat us richmond and collingwood at home and win on the road against ess hawks and north (they should win the last 3) will determine if they get 7th or 8th. Likewise collingwood might need to win at metricon plus adelaide (i expect they beat essendon and north easily as well as port) and then beat carlton in round 23 to get in. That game will be huge as carlton will be playing for top 4 and collingwood top 8 and both will likely need to win. Cant wait as a neutral fan.

 

[Macca180]

Brisbane
Melbourne
Geelong
Sydney

Richmond
Carlton
Fremantle

Then these 3 fighting it out for the last spot:

Collingwood
Bulldogs
Gold Coast