Prediction 2023 - Best 23

[Gaspard]

Seems to be three key differences in posters predictions: One or both of Cox/Cameron, the turnover of older players and which of the youth will make the grade.

In terms of the ruck, whilst one true ruck and McStay chopping out is the most common prediction, I have yet to read a detailed analysis of the impact this change will bring besides the argument, more run or flexibility. I am a big believer you are going to get what you have always got, outside of some improvement in youth and some reduction in the capacity of the aged. AFL is full of exceptions to this "rule" but generally these exceptions are hard to predict. In short, I think the rucks last year delivered a product - in terms of ruck work and marking around the ground - that suited our style and will not look the same with a single ruck. I'm not ruling it out but I believe the single ruck will require a stepping up from either Cox or Cameron, it will need some tweaks in game plan - less marks around the ground - and will be a more fragile arrangement. I'd be surpirsed if this is the direction we take from the season start, especially with Kruegar out, but may eventuate depending on the form of either of the two rucks. Horses for courses may also apply.

In terms of turnover, many have WHE out, with quite a few believing Howe and Sidey are cooked. To me there was no indication Sidey was cooked, certainly not the last picked in any game last year. Howe looked fragile in body, didn't take mark of the year and made a couple of really notable mistakes. Still, body right and more tall support in the backline might free him up: he has high footy IQ and uses it. WHE is one of those players that supporters love to blame but runs all day, threatens all day and certainly was not the last picked in 2022. The point for me is all three players were not close to being dropped in 2022 and need to be passed by the youth in 2023, outside of Howe whose body might be the issue.

That said, we have a bunch of older players in the current best 23. We don't want to meander into a mass change in personnel but, same time, we are contenders at this stage so have to play best 23 at all times. It will be really interesting how the McCrae team deal with this. Win big this year covers all sins but realistically this is a long shot. So the McCrae period might be defined how well they redevel0p over the next 2-3 years to have a tilt beyond that.

I have no idea of the youth. Training reports, etc, always sound really exciting. I am a cynic, players that haven't made an impact by their second year rarely become that significant. I'm not convinced we have a heap of budding champions on the list.

This is a very sensible post except for the last point. We have one Josh Daicos in our team who didn't show much in his first two years but is shaping as a star wingman now. Dane Swan was a very average player for quite a while before he exploded. There are so many examples of players who have taken several years to show their ability to us as spectators. The club usually knows, and that is why it keeps them until it is certain one way or another. I agree with just about everything else you had to say.

 

[neilk]

A fractured thumb is nothing?

Not if you're Darren Millane.

 

[Obese Arachnid]

Yes. I thought of Pants.

Me too but decided against it.

 

[Fat Jesus]

A fractured thumb is nothing?

At least he can keep his fitness up and the thumb should be right in a few weeks. Fracture is normally 5 or 6 weeks to heal.
Should be right by end of February.

 

[Gone Critical]

This is a very sensible post except for the last point. We have one Josh Daicos in our team who didn't show much in his first two years but is shaping as a star wingman now. Dane Swan was a very average player for quite a while before he exploded. There are so many examples of players who have taken several years to show their ability to us as spectators. The club usually knows, and that is why it keeps them until it is certain one way or another. I agree with just about everything else you had to say.

I have to say I agree with noideaatall take on this. Players who turn into good solid AFL players and even moreso those who rise higher than this almost always play senior footy in season one and more in season 2. If you havent made a mark by end of season 2 and have had a good run at it you are in trouble. Of course there are exceptions like you have noted but the exceptions often prove the rule.

 

[KinderSmock]

I don’t for a number of reasons.

1. Frampton has height and body strength
2. Dean has barely played much footy since drafted
3. Dean has a broken thumb


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Frampton will prove a shrewd acquisition.

Dean will play in 2023 but he needs to put together a few games before debuting. The thumb is another unfortunate set back and I hope he's able to string together some consistent performances.

 

[live fast pieyoung]

I have to say I agree with noideaatall take on this. Players who turn into good solid AFL players and even moreso those who rise higher than this almost always play senior footy in season one and more in season 2. If you havent made a mark by end of season 2 and have had a good run at it you are in trouble. Of course there are exceptions like you have noted but the exceptions often prove the rule.

I'd say its got as much to do with how the senior team is performing as it does the player

 

[Jen2310]

Frampton will prove a shrewd acquisition.

Dean will play in 2023 but he needs to put together a few games before debuting. The thumb is another unfortunate set back and I hope he's able to string together some consistent performances.

Can they both play? I’m not sure. Maybe dean can replace Howe eventually or Frampton can


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[Gone Critical]

I'd say its got as much to do with how the senior team is performing as it does the player

No doubt a factor

 

[noideaatall]

Name one poster that has asserted Sidey is cooked?

There is a bit of a conversation around this that starts at post #1417 I think.

This is a very sensible post except for the last point. We have one Josh Daicos in our team who didn't show much in his first two years but is shaping as a star wingman now. Dane Swan was a very average player for quite a while before he exploded. There are so many examples of players who have taken several years to show their ability to us as spectators. The club usually knows, and that is why it keeps them until it is certain one way or another. I agree with just about everything else you had to say.

I hope you are right. Certainly nowadays the requirements in terms of tank and physical size mean development is likely later.

 

[KinderSmock]

Can they both play? I’m not sure. Maybe dean can replace Howe eventually or Frampton can


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Perhaps Dean on the bench? But how do we fit Murphy in?

FB: Jeremy Howe, Billy Frampton, Brayden Maynard
HB: Nick Daicos, Darcy Moore, Isaac Quaynor

INT: Dean?

But how do we fit Murphy in?

Shuffle the magnets more and have Daicos in the guts. However, if that happens I'd imagine Pendlebury will move into the defensive line. And John Noble has effectively lost his place as well.

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C: Josh Daicos, Jack Crisp, Patrick Lipinski

Lipinski doesn't play on the wing.

HF: Jamie Elliott, Daniel McStay, Steele Sidebottom
FF: Bobby Hill, Brody Mihocek, Jack Ginnivan

Sidey and Lippa to swap; otherwise agree. I have a feeling we'll select Hill. However, no AJ.

FOL: Darcy Cameron, Tom Mitchell, Jordan De Goey
INT: Beau McCreery, Taylor Adams, Scott Pendlebury, Nathan Murphy

Agree with all but maybe Murphy? No Cox could make things interesting as well given I'm not entirely convinced Cameron can ruck for the full time. McStay has the potential to but that increases his workload.

Sub: Josh Carmichael - he's unlucky but the sub position is now tactical which means we have free choice when we use it.

EDIT: Current lineup doesn't allow for any players who are running hot in pre-season to get a shot, either.

 

[Bianconeri]

This is a very sensible post except for the last point. We have one Josh Daicos in our team who didn't show much in his first two years but is shaping as a star wingman now. Dane Swan was a very average player for quite a while before he exploded. There are so many examples of players who have taken several years to show their ability to us as spectators. The club usually knows, and that is why it keeps them until it is certain one way or another. I agree with just about everything else you had to say.

I think Josh Daicos’s talent was always on display in those early years it was just a question of whether or not he could improve his ranks and bulk up to the required strength.

 

[noideaatall]

Perhaps Dean on the bench? But how do we fit Murphy in?

FB: Jeremy Howe, Billy Frampton, Brayden Maynard
HB: Nick Daicos, Darcy Moore, Isaac Quaynor

INT: Dean?

But how do we fit Murphy in?

Shuffle the magnets more and have Daicos in the guts. However, if that happens I'd imagine Pendlebury will move into the defensive line. And John Noble has effectively lost his place as well.

More on ZeroHanger

C: Josh Daicos, Jack Crisp, Patrick Lipinski

Lipinski doesn't play on the wing.

HF: Jamie Elliott, Daniel McStay, Steele Sidebottom
FF: Bobby Hill, Brody Mihocek, Jack Ginnivan

Sidey and Lippa to swap; otherwise agree. I have a feeling we'll select Hill. However, no AJ.

FOL: Darcy Cameron, Tom Mitchell, Jordan De Goey
INT: Beau McCreery, Taylor Adams, Scott Pendlebury, Nathan Murphy

Agree with all but maybe Murphy? No Cox could make things interesting as well given I'm not entirely convinced Cameron can ruck for the full time. McStay has the potential to but that increases his workload.

Sub: Josh Carmichael - he's unlucky but the sub position is now tactical which means we have free choice when we use it.

EDIT: Current lineup doesn't allow for any players who are running hot in pre-season to get a shot, either.

Have to fit WHE in the backline as well. Wonder if he takes ndaics spot as daics moves into middle/forward. I see Murphy taking Howe's spot.

 

[KinderSmock]

Have to fit WHE in the backline as well. Wonder if he takes ndaics spot as daics moves into middle/forward. I see Murphy taking Howe's spot.

If that happens, where does Howe play?

 

[legendstatus]

I think Mitchell, McStay, Hill and Carmichael will be in our best 22 this year. The forward line is a bit of a quandary. On one hand you'd like three talls but on the other you want Elliott and Ginnivan close to goal as much as possible. So the question is do you go for the preferred structure or the superior talent?

Frampton will be best 22 round 1, no doubt whatsoever


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[Mollythedolly]

Frampton will be best 22 round 1, no doubt whatsoever


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Frampton may well end up being named R1 but I think he’s got some work to do to justify a best 22 tag in the more conventional sense. Henry Schade a case in point. Played the 1st 5-6 games after joining the club. Career ended with a total of 7-8 games for the Pies.

 

[neilk]

Can they both play? I’m not sure. Maybe dean can replace Howe eventually or Frampton can


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Cue the calls for Moore to move forward.

 

[Anzacday]

Cue the calls for Moore to move forward.

Dean was a forward prior to his switch to defence (2021?).
Would make more sense for him to be tried there, (in need).

 

[Fat Jesus]

Dean was a forward prior to his switch to defence (2021?).
Would make more sense for him to be tried there, (in need).

Moore was a premiership CHF for the Chargers. Kicked 4 in the GF.
I'm also hearing his father Peter would like to see him playing there.
If Dean and Frampton come on, you just never know.

 

[Fat Jesus]

Last time Moore started forward was against Wezt Coast in WA. He we were going well, but then we copped a couple of injuries in the backline. The floodgates opened and we had to throw him down back to try to stem the flow. After that game people were saying Moore should never play forward again and I was completely baffled by it.

Yep he needs to settle back into the position.
I remember what you're saying.
Doubting he will get many opportunities now.

Remember Barassi bringing Croswell from FB to FF in a GF.
He won them the game.

 

[Fat Jesus]

If Frampton and Dean both come on that'd give us the flexibility to play him forward.

Re that WA game I mentioned it was bad enough that supporters didn't think Moore should play forward again but why the club thought it as well was even more bizarre.

If the Fly is afforded this luxury of a good defence then you just never know.
Mihocek was also a good defender in his day.
I trust Fly will make the right decisions either way.

 

[Bianconeri]

If Frampton and Dean both come on that'd give us the flexibility to play him forward.

Re that WA game I mentioned it was bad enough that supporters didn't think Moore should play forward again but why the club thought it as well was even more bizarre.

The club played him forward for two or three more games, Moore got * all delivery and eventually went back.

 

[Bianconeri]

Did he start forward in those games or just get thrown down there during the games? Because that WA game was the last time I recall him starting forward.

I recall him starting forward for the Essendon game afterward and was switched back at half time for Will Kelly. Fair sure he started forward against Gold Coast as well but my meme key is a bit iffy here. Against North he was played back and the experiment ended. I recall us being fairly crap but North being a winnable game so we reverted to the moves that worked.

 

[Fat Jesus]

I recall him starting forward for the Essendon game afterward and was switched back at half time for Will Kelly. Fair sure he started forward against Gold Coast as well but my meme key is a bit iffy here. Against North he was played back and the experiment ended. I recall us being fairly crap but North being a winnable game so we reverted to the moves that worked.

With horrible forward entry. Nick and a couple of others will improve this Bigly for our forwards this year.

 

[Jen2310]

Given the way we play now, we don't lack F50 entries, like we did in 2021, so don't think Moore will be needed forward.