JakeNeadeFan
Premiership Player
- Nov 25, 2019
- 4,386
- 8,692
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
Adelaide Oval is the best venue in Australia and arguably is one of the greatest in world sport. The atmosphere at Port games is electric and is the envy of many other clubs in the comp. But the actual football….
Since 2015 I have found attending AO to witness a Port game a harrowing experience. I am always expecting to lose and the club often delivers. It is truly the field of disappointment. But is this feeling of despair justified? And if so, why are we so bad at the Oval?
The Stats Don't Lie
I am going to limit this analysis to home and away games since 2015. 2014 was a magical season at the former Portress but has been proven over the past few years to be the exception and not the rule.
In this time, Port has an overall 65W/52L record across all grounds, for a winning percentage of 55.6% overall. At AO, we have a 34W/27L record, for a winning percentage of 55.7%. Playing at AO means we win 0.1% more games. So effectively, our performance at home is the same as away. We would be no worse off playing all our games away.
An old adage in football is you want to play the best teams at home. You want to maximise every advantage that you get. So what is our performance like against top teams at AO? At AO, we have a 9W/20L record against top 8 teams for a 31% winning percentage. This is horrendous. Comparatively, away from home we have a 5W/14L record at 26.3%. So effectively we get a ~5% boost playing at home against top 8 teams, but off a very low base.
To summarise, since 2015 we have been dreadful at AO. But we all knew that. The real question is why.
But Why?
To me, there are several possible reasons for our under performance at AO.
At AO we average 89 points for and away we average 87.5 points, for a 2.5 points advantage at home. At AO we average 76.6 points against and away we average 80.7 points against, for an advantage of about 4 points at home. Offensively the advantage is minimal and defensively the advantage is minimal. To me this shows that we really do not play AO well at all. This is quite the indictment on the current coaching administration that they have not developed a game plan which suits where we play most of our games.
Now moving onto mental fortitude.
Obviously, this is a difficult attribute to gauge without having an intimate understanding of the players thoughts. However, for me a good measure of mental fortitude is goal kicking, as measured by goals as a percentage of scoring shots. Mentally strong players kick straight under pressure. At home our goal kicking accuracy is 53% and away it is 51.5%. We are more accurate home. Maybe our players are mentally strong!
Well, another good way to measure mental fortitude is how we perform in close games. How do the players respond to the crowd willing them over the line? The stats say not fantastically. In games decided under 18 points at AO, we have won 10 games and lost 12. To me this is a sign of mental fragility.
So mental fragility or a poorly suited game plan? Why not both!
The Crowval
Our shocking performance at Adelaide Oval suggests something much more nefarious at work. Perhaps Max Basheer has put a curse the hallowed grass, or maybe the stadium is built on Leigh Whicker’s burial site.
If this was the case then Adelaide Oval would be just as cruel to the Adelaide Crows. But is this the case?
The Crows have a 41W/21L record at the AO (for a 65% winning percentage), compared to an overall 66W/50L record (for a 57% winning percentage). What’s more, the crows average 5 more points at AO than away games and on average concede 11 less points at AO than away games. They have a 16W/14L record against top 8 teams. In close games decided by less than 18 points, the crows have a 9W/8L record
The Crows historically have played AO well. They have a game plan which allows them to restrict scoring, and the mental fortitude to feed off the crowd in big games.
It’s not you Adelaide Oval, it’s us. We simply need to be better.
Since 2015 I have found attending AO to witness a Port game a harrowing experience. I am always expecting to lose and the club often delivers. It is truly the field of disappointment. But is this feeling of despair justified? And if so, why are we so bad at the Oval?
The Stats Don't Lie
I am going to limit this analysis to home and away games since 2015. 2014 was a magical season at the former Portress but has been proven over the past few years to be the exception and not the rule.
In this time, Port has an overall 65W/52L record across all grounds, for a winning percentage of 55.6% overall. At AO, we have a 34W/27L record, for a winning percentage of 55.7%. Playing at AO means we win 0.1% more games. So effectively, our performance at home is the same as away. We would be no worse off playing all our games away.
An old adage in football is you want to play the best teams at home. You want to maximise every advantage that you get. So what is our performance like against top teams at AO? At AO, we have a 9W/20L record against top 8 teams for a 31% winning percentage. This is horrendous. Comparatively, away from home we have a 5W/14L record at 26.3%. So effectively we get a ~5% boost playing at home against top 8 teams, but off a very low base.
To summarise, since 2015 we have been dreadful at AO. But we all knew that. The real question is why.
But Why?
To me, there are several possible reasons for our under performance at AO.
- Our game plan does not suit AO
- Our players are mentally fragile and cannot handle the pressure of expectation
- Umpires (to be investigated in another instalment...)
At AO we average 89 points for and away we average 87.5 points, for a 2.5 points advantage at home. At AO we average 76.6 points against and away we average 80.7 points against, for an advantage of about 4 points at home. Offensively the advantage is minimal and defensively the advantage is minimal. To me this shows that we really do not play AO well at all. This is quite the indictment on the current coaching administration that they have not developed a game plan which suits where we play most of our games.
Now moving onto mental fortitude.
Obviously, this is a difficult attribute to gauge without having an intimate understanding of the players thoughts. However, for me a good measure of mental fortitude is goal kicking, as measured by goals as a percentage of scoring shots. Mentally strong players kick straight under pressure. At home our goal kicking accuracy is 53% and away it is 51.5%. We are more accurate home. Maybe our players are mentally strong!
Well, another good way to measure mental fortitude is how we perform in close games. How do the players respond to the crowd willing them over the line? The stats say not fantastically. In games decided under 18 points at AO, we have won 10 games and lost 12. To me this is a sign of mental fragility.
So mental fragility or a poorly suited game plan? Why not both!
The Crowval
Our shocking performance at Adelaide Oval suggests something much more nefarious at work. Perhaps Max Basheer has put a curse the hallowed grass, or maybe the stadium is built on Leigh Whicker’s burial site.
If this was the case then Adelaide Oval would be just as cruel to the Adelaide Crows. But is this the case?
The Crows have a 41W/21L record at the AO (for a 65% winning percentage), compared to an overall 66W/50L record (for a 57% winning percentage). What’s more, the crows average 5 more points at AO than away games and on average concede 11 less points at AO than away games. They have a 16W/14L record against top 8 teams. In close games decided by less than 18 points, the crows have a 9W/8L record
The Crows historically have played AO well. They have a game plan which allows them to restrict scoring, and the mental fortitude to feed off the crowd in big games.
It’s not you Adelaide Oval, it’s us. We simply need to be better.
