Boom or Bust for 2017 - List Demographic

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lunacy

Premiership Player
Jul 25, 2006
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Adelaide
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We are definitely not boom or bust for 2017. I think our injury free year possibly gave many a false read of where our list is really at. We think we have nice 'potential' depth, but up to now it hasn't yet been proven (ie Menzel Hampton Wigg Milera Doedee Dear Keath etc.

Plus our upper end 28+ years old on our list is very poor compared to other top 6 sides.
Thompson, Betts, Douglas, Jacobs, Henderson, Mackay.
In that group there is 1 star, 1 very good ruckman who could be on the decline, and the others are club whipping boys who will either be delisted or fighting to get afl games.

Compare that to the top 6 over 28yr olds:
Bulldogs
Murphy Boyd Morris Picken Cloke Dickson Suckling Crameri
(Easton Wood almost fits in, he's 27yrs)

Sydney
McVeigh Grundy Buddy Tippett Jack Smith Kennedy

Geelong
Longergan Mackie Taylor Selwood Hawkins (this year had Enright & Bartel too)

GWS
S.Johnson H.Shaw Mumford Griffen Deledio Mohr

Hawks
Burgoyne Gibson Hodge Roughead Spangher Puopolo Birchall Frawley
(This year they had Mitchell & Lewis)

These guys still play huge roles in their team and provide great leadership.

Our older guys (apart from Betts) just aren't good enough and don't provide tha quality, experience & leadership that the other sides have.
Everyone says Bulldogs & GWS are young but they both have a quality senior core of players. We don't.

Yes we could have snagged a premiership this year and if we added Gibbs we would have been stronger in that age demographic next year, but I think when our core senior group is Tex Sloane Talia Lynch, Smith who are all currently 25-26 yrs old, rather than our current senior players, we'll be very strong.

In the mean time our bottom end (in terms of age) needs 1 more year of bolstering by bringing in 1-3 more players plus Edwards next year.
During that time the rest of the squad will get another year of development & experience and we'll be in a far better position to start adding to our older demographic to really push for a premiership.

We weren't tested by injury. Imagine if Tex, Talia, Sloane, JJ went down. Yes any team would struggle to cover players of that quality, but we didn't really have anyone ready this year to cover them at all. In another 1-2 years we'll more adequately be able to replace them.

We are definitely not boom or bust for 2017. We are just approaching our genuine window and hopefully it will be sustained success.
 
Plus our upper end 28+ years old on our list is very poor compared to other top 6 sides.
Thompson, Betts, Douglas, Jacobs, Henderson, Mackay.
In that group there is 1 star, 1 very good ruckman who could be on the decline, and the others are club whipping boys who will either be delisted or fighting to get afl games.

This is the hole we had in our list from 6 years ago, when we drafted poorly and kept Edwards / McLeod etc on, expecting them to take all the load. It's nearly worked its way out of our list (thankfully FA can address the new draft sanction hold we made a few years ago)

In the mean time our bottom end (in terms of age) needs 1 more year of bolstering by bringing in 1-3 more players plus Edwards next year.

We are definitely not boom or bust for 2017. We are just approaching our genuine window and hopefully it will be sustained success.

I agree, but our list isn't complete for 2017 yet, let's see what we've got to work with
 
Of the senior players that we've developed only Thommo has been a good player on average. Mackay has at best been borderline best 22, Dougie has been very good in patches but poor on others and certainly hasn't maintained anything resembling his b&f year. Our most recent highly valued guys that retired, VB and Reilly, were bog average. Betts has been astounding and Sauce has had 2-3 good/very good seasons, but intermixed with poor ones.

I've said it many times, we've valued games played ahead of actual on field performance for ages. I'm quietly confident that a certain number of games played needed to fit into a certain persons template before a team could be successful. I'm not convinced that person took any qualitative factors into account.
 

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This is an interesting thread which has been the root of all our problems. Our senior players since the golden era have been poor except for a couple of exceptions.

Doughty, Reilly, VB and Mackay would have to be the most underwhelming senior players a club could ever have. If Mackay gets to join them with 200 games our club is truly ****ed.

Having Tex and co as senior players will be a welcome relief and make us true contenders if we have another bunch of Tex and co's coming in underneath them. The problem is we will need to wait another 3 years to see if that's the case.

And the way we favour senior players like the players mentioned means we won't see Milera, Knight, Doedee and Menzel get enough games in together to see if we can bridge the gap.
 
We are definitely not boom or bust for 2017. I think our injury free year possibly gave many a false read of where our list is really at. We think we have nice 'potential' depth, but up to now it hasn't yet been proven (ie Menzel Hampton Wigg Milera Doedee Dear Keath etc.

Plus our upper end 28+ years old on our list is very poor compared to other top 6 sides.
Thompson, Betts, Douglas, Jacobs, Henderson, Mackay.
In that group there is 1 star, 1 very good ruckman who could be on the decline, and the others are club whipping boys who will either be delisted or fighting to get afl games.

Compare that to the top 6 over 28yr olds:
Bulldogs
Murphy Boyd Morris Picken Cloke Dickson Suckling Crameri
(Easton Wood almost fits in, he's 27yrs)

Sydney
McVeigh Grundy Buddy Tippett Jack Smith Kennedy

Geelong
Longergan Mackie Taylor Selwood Hawkins (this year had Enright & Bartel too)

GWS
S.Johnson H.Shaw Mumford Griffen Deledio Mohr

Hawks
Burgoyne Gibson Hodge Roughead Spangher Puopolo Birchall Frawley
(This year they had Mitchell & Lewis)

These guys still play huge roles in their team and provide great leadership.

Our older guys (apart from Betts) just aren't good enough and don't provide tha quality, experience & leadership that the other sides have.
Everyone says Bulldogs & GWS are young but they both have a quality senior core of players. We don't.

Yes we could have snagged a premiership this year and if we added Gibbs we would have been stronger in that age demographic next year, but I think when our core senior group is Tex Sloane Talia Lynch, Smith who are all currently 25-26 yrs old, rather than our current senior players, we'll be very strong.

In the mean time our bottom end (in terms of age) needs 1 more year of bolstering by bringing in 1-3 more players plus Edwards next year.
During that time the rest of the squad will get another year of development & experience and we'll be in a far better position to start adding to our older demographic to really push for a premiership.

We weren't tested by injury. Imagine if Tex, Talia, Sloane, JJ went down. Yes any team would struggle to cover players of that quality, but we didn't really have anyone ready this year to cover them at all. In another 1-2 years we'll more adequately be able to replace them.

We are definitely not boom or bust for 2017. We are just approaching our genuine window and hopefully it will be sustained success.

I must have been living under a rock for the past 10 years but that Picken guy in the bulldogs he was epic in the final series. I had never heard of him or taken notice.
Think WADA need to take a good look at that team, came from nowhere the last couple of years.
 
We are no chance next year. More likely 2018 onwards. But we seem to say that every year. "In 2 years we'll challenge". Sick of it.

After the WB premiership success I won't be one that says no chance

As what happened in 97 and 98 this year highlighted that not always the best list wins the comp and with the pre finals bye here to stay if you can win enough games to make the 8 will come down to who plays the best month of footy in Sept
 
After the WB premiership success I won't be one that says no chance

As what happened in 97 and 98 this year highlighted that not always the best list wins the comp and with the pre finals bye here to stay if you can win enough games to make the 8 will come down to who plays the best month of footy in Sept
Wasn't it Blight who said there are 3 seasons in football.
1. Round 1-23
2. Finals
3. Grand Final

Season 1 is about positioning yourself for Round 2 and Round 2 is positioning for Round 3.

I do think the OP brings up some good points and it was why I was confident players like Mackay and Thompson and Douglas would get games, and maybe why I am now sad that they will in 2017. I actually think it is our next-gen who are the Leaders and it doesn't matter as much. ( well I would say this;) ) Its not so much the age profile its the Leadership profile and I think we are well served by Walker , Sloane , Betts etc.
 
FWIW

Joining Rowey and Bicks on FIVEaa, Phil Walsh spoke about the games played/age profile of the last 10 AFL premiership teams.

“It’s about 138 average (games) and about 28 years of age,” Walsh said. “We’re not near that.”

“Reality says, if you look at our age demographic, we’re going to get closer to those numbers in about season 2017.”

http://www.fiveaa.com.au/show/phil-walsh-eyes-2017-premiership-window



I agree with this. Does not mean we are real contenders next year, but our age demographic is starting to look like the traditional contender tracking into the positive for 2018 and beyond.

Walshy did say it would take 50 games to see the potential of Hartigan. He was correct about that.


Is interesting to note that early last year the midfield was seen as a strength. We built up or defence and it is among the best in the league. Yet with Paddy gone a fair size hole has been created in the middle.
 
We are definitely not boom or bust for 2017. I think our injury free year possibly gave many a false read of where our list is really at. We think we have nice 'potential' depth, but up to now it hasn't yet been proven (ie Menzel Hampton Wigg Milera Doedee Dear Keath etc.

Plus our upper end 28+ years old on our list is very poor compared to other top 6 sides.
Thompson, Betts, Douglas, Jacobs, Henderson, Mackay.
In that group there is 1 star, 1 very good ruckman who could be on the decline, and the others are club whipping boys who will either be delisted or fighting to get afl games.

Compare that to the top 6 over 28yr olds:
Bulldogs
Murphy Boyd Morris Picken Cloke Dickson Suckling Crameri
(Easton Wood almost fits in, he's 27yrs)

Sydney
McVeigh Grundy Buddy Tippett Jack Smith Kennedy

Geelong
Longergan Mackie Taylor Selwood Hawkins (this year had Enright & Bartel too)

GWS
S.Johnson H.Shaw Mumford Griffen Deledio Mohr

Hawks
Burgoyne Gibson Hodge Roughead Spangher Puopolo Birchall Frawley
(This year they had Mitchell & Lewis)

These guys still play huge roles in their team and provide great leadership.

Our older guys (apart from Betts) just aren't good enough and don't provide tha quality, experience & leadership that the other sides have.
Everyone says Bulldogs & GWS are young but they both have a quality senior core of players. We don't.

Yes we could have snagged a premiership this year and if we added Gibbs we would have been stronger in that age demographic next year, but I think when our core senior group is Tex Sloane Talia Lynch, Smith who are all currently 25-26 yrs old, rather than our current senior players, we'll be very strong.

In the mean time our bottom end (in terms of age) needs 1 more year of bolstering by bringing in 1-3 more players plus Edwards next year.
During that time the rest of the squad will get another year of development & experience and we'll be in a far better position to start adding to our older demographic to really push for a premiership.

We weren't tested by injury. Imagine if Tex, Talia, Sloane, JJ went down. Yes any team would struggle to cover players of that quality, but we didn't really have anyone ready this year to cover them at all. In another 1-2 years we'll more adequately be able to replace them.

We are definitely not boom or bust for 2017. We are just approaching our genuine window and hopefully it will be sustained success.

Fair assessment. We were tested when Sloane was rubbed out and look how that turned out.
I am agreeing more with those that said we should have put more time into the young players in 2016. If we had put a half dozen games each into a few of those players you mention (Menzel Hampton Wigg Milera Doedee Dear Keath etc.) we would be better positioned for 2017. Our window is likely out to 2018/19, timed very well to when GWS hit their peak. Lean times ahead.
 
Now or never for the crows, we have such a talented list but just lacking what midfield depth that could take us to the next step. In saying that though, I would love to see them prove everyone wrong in 2017 and take it out.
 

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I must have been living under a rock for the past 10 years but that Picken guy in the bulldogs he was epic in the final series. I had never heard of him or taken notice.
Think WADA need to take a good look at that team, came from nowhere the last couple of years.

One in a million chance that GF win was legit.

I have erased the 2016 year of AFL from memory. I'm glad we weren't good at the end of the season, there's no way we would have won it this year. Between the AFL's help of Geelong / Kangaroos / Bulldogs from an admin point of view and then the bullies players playing too well to be natural, we had no chance.
 
Fair assessment. We were tested when Sloane was rubbed out and look how that turned out.
I am agreeing more with those that said we should have put more time into the young players in 2016. If we had put a half dozen games each into a few of those players you mention (Menzel Hampton Wigg Milera Doedee Dear Keath etc.) we would be better positioned for 2017. Our window is likely out to 2018/19, timed very well to when GWS hit their peak. Lean times ahead.

Have to disagree, winning premierships is about taking ones chances - Bulldogs did it this year. We did it in 1997 and 1998.

We didn't change our team due to lack of injuries and trying to make top 4 and gain as much % as possible (remember how tight the 8 was or have people conveniently forgotten). You want to debut these kids against good teams, not rabble like Brisbane and Essendon were this year.

We won't see Thompson, Douglas or Mackay as much in 2017 and we will have those others in given having had another preseason under their belt.
 
Have to disagree, winning premierships is about taking ones chances - Bulldogs did it this year. We did it in 1997 and 1998.

We didn't change our team due to lack of injuries and trying to make top 4 and gain as much % as possible (remember how tight the 8 was or have people conveniently forgotten). You want to debut these kids against good teams, not rabble like Brisbane and Essendon were this year.

We won't see Thompson, Douglas or Mackay as much in 2017 and we will have those others in given having had another preseason under their belt.
the assumption I really hate is the idea that replacing Thommo, Mackay or Douglas with others wouldn't have made us better.

we easily could have brought someone like Milera back for a second crack in the back end of the season for Mackay, or Knight who found touch very quickly back from his injury late in the season. Wigg probably could have played for Thommo or Douglas at various stages and CEY definitely didn't embarrass himself when Thommo finally did get a rest. Then you've got ROB who came in and did a job only to get replaced by a clearly still injured Jacobs.

now again the assumption by many and obviously the selection panel is that making these changes immediately makes us a worse side, which I think given the horrendous form of Thommo, Mackay and Douglas throughout much of the season is absolute bullshit.

we found ourselves in a better than expected position and bottled it. Top 2 was well and truly in reach and we wasted the opportunity through lack of daring/fear of failure.
 
A lot of people in here have the end of the season in mind when rating how good we were. At the end of the season we had two injured and out of form key forwards, a badly out of form ruckman (normally one of the top 5 in the comp) and two midfielders (Sloaney and a 3rd year-er).

It is not surprising to me we went so badly at the end of the year.

That is not reflective of the whole year. Across the whole year I would say we were the best team in the comp. Well some might argue that we didn't finish top. To that I would say if you change the hawks game to a win - and don't tell me that is an unrealistic thing to do - #freekickhawthorn didn't come to be a league wide phenomenon for nothing and it was at its peak against us. Now we're equal top. Add the bulldogs game due to being another game where the influence of the umpires was significant enough to determine the outcome. That was another pinnacle of cheating by the CorruptFL, after that, the umpires pulled back on the free kicks the dogs were getting as it was just blatant. If we add that game, we are a game clear on top. Add in our tough draw. Plenty to suggest we were, if not the best team in the comp across the year, that we were a lot better than what we showed at the end of the season.
We were also caught in a bit of a no-mans land as well on a couple of things that won't happen next season.

1)Management of Thommo. People have forgotten how good he was early in the year last year. It was always a management issue with him. He tailed off badly at the end of the year. Probably played too early and not enough games off. But if you don't play him early, maybe we don't get off to the start we needed, then the whole year turns out differently. This year, hopefully the club see him playing about 15 games and if it were me, I'd delay him starting everything, pre season, the season in SANFL and then try to get him in to the seniors about mid year, peaking at the end.

2)Management of Ruckmen. ROB was a bit of an unknown quantity this year. Not anymore. If Sauce needs a rest next year we should have no qualms about it. Better for Sauce, so he's not cooked and more at his peak (though admittedly he does thrive on a high workload - probably better running two ruckmen some weeks rather than giving him games off)

3)Brad Crouch, late in the year he faded too. Still was best 22 so you had to play him, but wasn't anywhere near what we would expect from him. Fingers crossed he'll get thru preseason for once with maybe worst case a soft tissue that keeps him out for a week or 3. Then into the main season, where he will just go from strength to strength with consistently playing, he'll be the sort of player that work hardens to a great degree.

Few other random comments:

It was a pity last year that although a lot of things went well for us, that our recruitment really didn't net us the speed gain that we wanted. It was the correct plan, but a lot of our speed spent the year injured - Seedsman, Hampton and Menzel the obvious ones here. Menz probably wouldn't have got a game anyway and Seedsman did get some, but both Seedsman and Hampton being available all year would have been a help. Even Hendo playing more games would have been an advantage. Milera did as well as could be expected. What I like is that straight away next season we should have a tonne of heat on Dougy and Mackay from those speedy guys. Would love Greenwood to come on also. Extremely agile and good acceleration for a 192cm player. Cameron getting more midfield time would be a help as well.

Our defence. Still not certain it serves us well. Would love us to change our style. Will be curious to see if Pyke does change it. Even if kept the same, it will be a help for us having a faster midfield.

Having a bit of stability has got to help. No new person coming in as coach, settled in to our routines now with seconds, settled in to Adelaide oval. The changes are more off - field this year. Reasonably fit list at the end of last season. A lot of the guys that will form the core of our team next year have been playing together for a bit. Our inexperienced defenders in Lever/Hartigan/Cheney/Seedsman (yes even Cheney) were a lot more comfortable by the seasons end than what they were at the start, so we bring that in to this year.

There was a bit of pressure on the ones from the seconds guys last year and most showed in patches some AFL level form, that pressure should go from being a "bit" of pressure to "widespread serious heat" as there is, if everyone's fit, a heap of players with claims to getting a game on our list. From young players like Wiggy, Gore, Milera, ROB and Doedee to injured experience in Shaw, Otten, Menzel, Hampton to getting back into the groove in Greenwood and Keath plus our pick 13, if a mid, will also be a chance to press for selection hopefully. There are others not mentioned that were in good form in SANFL last year not even mentioned (Kelly and Dear spring to mind) I like that we have 1/3rd to half a team of serious heat on the ones, covering all spots on the ground too, except maybe inside mid.

Yes our older 28+ year players dont give us much, but the positive flipside of that is we don't depend on them much, meaning we lose very little if their form drops away. Translation: we should be there or thereabouts for sometime yet, key injuries not withstanding.

Seriously difficult to see us not finishing in the top couple next year.
 
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...k=f44b5f9e95f7720c39eb34087b89a032-1477730959

Champion Data rates Western Bulldogs’ list as best in the AFL, Brisbane Lions rated worst

SAM LANDSBERGER, Herald Sun
an hour ago
Subscriber only
WESTERN Bulldogs supporters can start dreaming of back-to-back premierships — if Champion Data is any guide.

The AFL’s official number cruncher believes the premiers will enter 2017 with the strongest list after an in-depth analysis of every club.

The Dogs’ glut of young talent runs deeper than the hyped Greater Western Sydney and even has the great Hawthorn teams of the past five years covered.

Champion Data rates the Bulldogs’ list as the best in the league, meaning it’s well-placed for back-to-back premierships. Picture: Michel Klein
And North Melbourne will enter light on for star power, with just one player rated elite.

But coach Brad Scott can’t be blamed for his cull of veterans, given the Kangas only entered this season with two.

Four clubs — the Dogs, Giants, West Coast and Sydney — boast an AFL-high six elite superstars.

Last-minute signing Brett Deledio delivered the Giants their sixth, alongside Zac Williams, Devon Smith, Nick Haynes and All-Australians Heath Shaw and Toby Greene.



GWS trumped Dogs coach Luke Beveridge’s 11th-hour bid to snare Deledio, who walked out on Richmond.

Players rated in the top 10 per cent for their position are regarded as elite by Champion.

But it is the Bulldogs’ base which leaves the league in their wake.

Beneath their A-graders, Champion Data rates another 13 Dogs “above average” — No. 1 in the AFL.

The total of 19 men in the top two brackets beats Hawthorn’s 15, 15 and 16 from their golden 2013-2015 run.

And in an ominous sign for the premiership defence, six of Beveridge’s talented 19 did not feature in the historic premiership, but are all set to return in 2017.

They are captain Bob Murphy, Mitch Wallis, Marcus Adams, Lin Jong, Matthew Suckling and Stewart Crameri.

St Kilda great Nathan Burke lashed the Dogs’ list during the finals as “devoid of stars and marquee players”.



“They’ve (Hawthorn) got their four or five outright stars, the Bulldogs don’t have that, they are just playing very well as a team,” Burke said.

“For me, to have that dynasty you need four or five stars to build around.”

But Champion’s examination smashes that theory and delivers another tick to the shrewd drafting under chief recruiter Simon Dalrymple, completed off a shoestring budget, and the development program led by Chris Maple.

Brownlow Medallist Gerard Healy this year rated the Dogs’ four-year recruiting block the most successful he has seen, and Dalrymple called 12 of the names put up in lights by Champion.

Essendon and Brisbane Lions are the only clubs without an elite player. But the Bombers were hindered by the formula, which is calculated with a 75 per cent weighting to 2016.

Players must have played 10 games over the past two seasons to qualify and the Dons had their batch of superstars serving drug suspensions this season.



Elite players: Mitch Wallis, Marcus Bontempelli, Bob Murphy, Matthew Boyd, Jake Stringer, Luke Dahlhaus.

Above-average players: Tom Liberatore, Jason Johannisen, Easton Wood, Jack Macrae, Stewart Crameri, Dale Morris, Lin Jong, Tory Dickson, Liam Picken, Caleb Daniel, Marcus Adams, Clay Smith, Matthew Suckling.

Ratings by: CHAMPION DATA

Pre-order Champion Data’s 2017 AFL Prospectus for $39.95

CHAMPION DATA 2017 LIST ANALYSIS

CLUB ELITE ABOVE AVERAGE TOTAL
Western Bulldogs 6 13 19
GWS Giants 6 11 17
West Coast 6 8 14
Adelaide 4 10 14
Sydney 6 7 13
St Kilda 1 11 12
Collingwood 2 10 12
Port Adelaide 3 7 10
Melbourne 2 8 10
Hawthorn 5 5 10
Geelong 5 4 9
Fremantle 3 6 9
Richmond 3 6 9
Gold Coast 3 5 8
North Melbourne 1 6 7
Essendon 0 7 7
Carlton 2 3 5
Brisbane Lions 0 3 3
 
[QUOTE="Bicks, post: 47619631, member:
CLUB ELITE ABOVE AVERAGE TOTAL
Western Bulldogs 6 13 19
GWS Giants 6 11 17
West Coast 6 8 14
Adelaide 4 10 14
Sydney 6 7 13
St Kilda 1 11 12
Collingwood 2 10 12
Port Adelaide 3 7 10
Melbourne 2 8 10
Hawthorn 5 5 10
Geelong 5 4 9
Fremantle 3 6 9
Richmond 3 6 9
Gold Coast 3 5 8
North Melbourne 1 6 7
Essendon 0 7 7
Carlton 2 3 5
Brisbane Lions 0 3 3
[/QUOTE]
?????
 
CLUB ELITE ABOVE AVERAGE TOTAL
Western Bulldogs 6 13 19
GWS Giants 6 11 17
West Coast 6 8 14
Adelaide 4 10 14
Sydney 6 7 13
St Kilda 1 11 12
Collingwood 2 10 12
Port Adelaide 3 7 10
Melbourne 2 8 10
Hawthorn 5 5 10
Geelong 5 4 9
Fremantle 3 6 9
Richmond 3 6 9
Gold Coast 3 5 8
North Melbourne 1 6 7
Essendon 0 7 7
Carlton 2 3 5
Brisbane Lions 0 3 3

This is not so far off my premiership ladder prediction.

Say we give 1.2 for elite, 1.1 for above average & 1 for the remaining top 22. My prediction in brackets - looks like I'm biased against port lol.

1 Western bulldogs 7.2 14.3 3 24.5 (2)
2 GWS 7.2 12.1 5 24.3 (1)
3 West Coast 7.2 8.8 8 24.0 (5)
4 Sydney 7.2 7.7 9 23.9 (3)
5 Adelaide 4.8 11 8 23.8 (4)
6 Hawthorn 6 5.5 12 23.5 (7)
7 Geelong 6 4.4 13 23.4 (9)
7 Collingwood 2.4 11 10 23.4 (10)
9 St Kilda 1.2 12.1 10 23.3 (6)
9 Port 3.6 7.7 12 23.3 (14)
11 Melbourne 2.4 8.8 12 23.2 (8)
11 Fremantle 3.6 6.6 13 23.2 (11)
11 Richmond 3.6 6.6 13 23.2 (13)
14 Gold Coast 3.6 5.5 14 23.1 (12)
15 North 1.2 6.6 15 22.8 (15)
16 Essendon 0 7.7 15 22.7 (16)
16 Carlton 2.4 3.3 17 22.7 (17)
18 Brisbane 0 3.3 19 22.3 (18)
 
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