Prediction Changes for round 5 v Freo

[bobby2]

Big question is, is Boyd actually available? I’m a little sceptical if he’s battling mental illness that it won’t still be quite a few weeks away before he becomes available irrespective of VFL form. Hard to tell from the lack of information coming from the club (understandably). I know the club is saying it’s just form but I do wonder if there’s a longer term recovery/management plan going on.

With Dickson playing well I’d consider playing one of the young forwards in place of Gowers. It would seem a low risk and potential good upside change.

If Hunter is suspended (I think he’ll get a week because Papley looked affected) do you just increase midfield rotations to cover so you don’t lose much run and could just swap Cordy in for Hunter?

I'm confident he's available. If his mental health was holding him back from playing football at the moment, he wouldn't be playing vfl.

There isn't a lack of information from the club. Multiple sources have repeatedly said he'll be picked when he shows good form.

I really think this is Tom's next big moment. He's put it together at vfl level. It may have been a weak opposition, but 5 goals in a half is a great effort against anyone. From all reports, he played with intensity, which is the most important thing. If he brings that at AFL level, he'll do enough as a key forward/second ruck.

We need a key forward. We need a good set shot kicker. We need a second ruckman.

Tom provides all of this in a way nobody else on our list can. Roughy and English both aren't as good in the forward line, and would become liabilities for half the game if they ruck 50/50. If English and Boyd ruck 70/30, the team is much better off.

We could get away with Dunkley and bont in the ruck against Sinclair and bellchambers, but this is sandilands.

I couldn't give a toss that the game is interstate. There's nothing stopping Tom from getting on a plane.

 

[Dogsman16]

English just has to get some support this week. Unfair to play him on his lonesome against Sandilands.

Tom Boyd to come back in.

 

[adsum]

It's pretty hard to kick goals when you spend virtually a whole quarter (3rd) playing loose man in defence or warming the pine. I know Franklin was starting to get on top but the use of Redpath in that quarter was odd. Several times we entered the forward line being outnumbered and undersized.

Agree. And I'm pretty sure he started the game in the backline. What's the point of selecting him if he's not used where he's best suited?

 

[StringyDog]

Dont understand the need for Roughead to come in for ruck support just because its sandilands, he wouldnt win a tap if sandilands was cut off at knee anyway. Trengove is much better option as English/Trengove will lose the ruck battle but can work sandilands around the ground, Roughead would lose ruck battle anyway and offers little around ground.

In lipinski, Cordy, Trengove
Out Honeychurch, Hunter, Redpath

 

[Doggies_13]

Would go with
Out: Biggs Honeychurch
In: lipinski cordy

If hunter gets suspended would bring in one of boyd/Roughead/Trengove

 

[bobby2]

Dont understand the need for Roughead to come in for ruck support just because its sandilands, he wouldnt win a tap if sandilands was cut off at knee anyway. Trengove is much better option as English/Trengove will lose the ruck battle but can work sandilands around the ground, Roughead would lose ruck battle anyway and offers little around ground.

In lipinski, Cordy, Trengove
Out Honeychurch, Hunter, Redpath

Agree that trengove is the best once the ball hits the deck, but what do you do with English when trengove is rucking (and vice versa). Neither looks like a forward. Boyd is the best fit alongside English, because he can play mostly forward and allow English to ruck most of the day.

 

[hatescaptcha]

OUT: Hunter (Suspended), Biggs
IN: Lipinski, Cordy

Boyd to have another good hit out and come in vs Carlton.


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[BRWB]

It will be a soft landing for Boyd against Freo as no one pays attention to Freo games outside of a small segment of WA. I am enjoying our increased run after beong too top heavy with rucks in rd 1. So

IN: Lipinski, Boyd and Cordy
OUT: Honey, Red and Hunter (susp)

We just cant play Red and Boyd fwd together I think - too slow. Bont and Gowers really need to lead up hard to replace Red leading which is kind of vital. Gowers must only kick down the line or handball.

Can't see Rough being picked until English tires, as dont think we should play two primary rucks in the same team.

 

[Struggle]

Agree. And I'm pretty sure he started the game in the backline. What's the point of selecting him if he's not used where he's best suited?

He went down there to protect jj at the start. Was back forward almost immediately

 

[DelRe]

I'm confident he's available. If his mental health was holding him back from playing football at the moment, he wouldn't be playing vfl.

There isn't a lack of information from the club. Multiple sources have repeatedly said he'll be picked when he shows.

My view is that playing VFL only indicates they think he can play AFL at some point, not necessarily that he’s ready when form warrants. The club has been a little opaque on injuries and availability generally so I guess we’ll see how it plays out. I sincerely hope he is right to go form permitting but I’m not sure I’d be surprised if we’re still waiting for him to play next month.

 

[SCRAY72]

Going to need two rucks vs Sandi

 

[Bald]

Do we really want Boyd in against Alex Pearce who has been the dominant defender in the competition thus far this year?

Bring him in against Carlton.

Redpath and Hunter out.
Lipinski and Trengove in.

 

[bobby2]

My view is that playing VFL only indicates they think he can play AFL at some point, not necessarily that he’s ready when form warrants. The club has been a little opaque on injuries and availability generally so I guess we’ll see how it plays out. I sincerely hope he is right to go form permitting but I’m not sure I’d be surprised if we’re still waiting for him to play next month.

I think you've come to that view without considering the situation first though. If Tom is mentally fit enough to run out onto whitten oval in shitty weather for four quarters and play with the intensity he showed, why wouldn't he be mentally fit enough to run out onto an AFL ground? It just wouldn't make any sense.

The club is often opaque with availability information, but they rarely lie straight up. For example, they may not have revealed Clay's knee injury for a while, but they didn't come out and say "clay is fine. He is fit to play senior football when he shows the right form". In boyd's case, they have openly addressed reasons he hasn't been selected.

The fact that the "he'll play when he shows good form" line has been expressed by multiple people also makes it more likely to be true. It's not just bevo's spin. Wood has said the same thing. We've also heard several times that he's in a good headspace.

When assessing whether people are being truthful, it's also worth asking what benefit they would get from lying. The club doesn't benefit from Tom getting media pressure about his form at vfl level. It would put less pressure on Tom to come out and temper expectations by saying "Tom is still working through his depression and we expect that to take a while" if that was actually the case.

At the moment, all evidence really suggests that he'll get selected when he shows good form. It's possible that he may need to show a few weeks of good form before his promotion, which would be understandable, but I personally hope they pick him this week.

 

[DelRe]

I think you've come to that view without considering the situation first though. If Tom is mentally fit enough to run out onto whitten oval in shitty weather for four quarters and play with the intensity he showed, why wouldn't he be mentally fit enough to run out onto an AFL ground? It just wouldn't make any sense.

A rebuttal to that though might be that Boyd and Cloke both took time out in VFL last year for that very reason (Fasolo as well?). I assume there are benefits to playing at that level than AFL but I’m no expert in the area.

I’m not suggesting the club is outright lying just open to the possibility of them being strategic in communication for any number of reasons.

As I say, I sincerely hope he’s ready and raring to go and look forward to if/when he is.

 

[Doggy]

Beveridge has already said Trengove will be back so that is one change, as will Cordy

 

[bobby2]

A rebuttal to that though might be that Boyd and Cloke both took time out in VFL last year for that very reason (Fasolo as well?). I assume there are benefits to playing at that level than AFL but I’m no expert in the area.

I’m not suggesting the club is outright lying just open to the possibility of them being strategic in communication for any number of reasons.

As I say, I sincerely hope he’s ready and raring to go and look forward to if/when he is.

Boyd and Cloke both took time off because they were unable to play. They then returned through the vfl because you don't just walk into the seniors after taking time off. Once you show form and fitness in the vfl though, you get picked.

The club has said that he'll get a game when he has good form. They've also said he's in a good headspace at the moment. They are either telling the truth or outright lying. There isn't really a middle ground there when they've made definitive statements.

We can definitely all agree that it'd be great to see him out there though.

 

[DelRe]

Boyd and Cloke both took time off because they were unable to play. They then returned through the vfl because you don't just walk into the seniors after taking time off. Once you show form and fitness in the vfl though, you get picked.

The club has said that he'll get a game when he has good form. They've also said he's in a good headspace at the moment. They are either telling the truth or outright lying. There isn't really a middle ground there when they've made definitive statements.

We can definitely all agree that it'd be great to see him out there though.

Reasonably sure Boyd and Cloke both held back from AFL for that reason. Fairly widely reported. I don’t see it as black and white in the way clubs communicate that it’s lie or truth either. Think we’ll have to agree to disagree on some of those points.

 

[Next Waiting]

OUT: Hunter (susp), Honeychurch, Biggs
IN: Cordy, Lipinski, Boyd

Biggest concern with those changes is the amount of run we lose. Could maybe leave Biggs in and drop Redpath.
Boyd and English to split the ruck 50/50 and rest up forward.

If Hunter survives the MRP then I'd either leave Lipinski out or drop Gowers.

In the gun:
Richards will need to show a bit more next week to keep his spot (much as I love him), especially with Crozier due back soon.
Need a more consistent contribution from Daniel too.
Gowers was quiet today. Despite a nice goal he was one of our weaker players.

I'd go Roughy over Boyd as my only variation. Cordy a straight swap for Biggs (Bevo in his presser was a little critical of the help Wood didn't get at times - Biggs and perhaps Suckling seemed the likely offenders) and Lipinski for Hunter. Roughie/Boyd for Honeychurch. Perhaps a couple more forward targets in Boyd/Roughie and Lipinski allows Bont a bit more midfield time to offset/mitigate Hunters loss (hard to see him getting off that one).

 

[Hard Ball Get]

In: Cordy, out: Biggs
In: Lipinski, out: Hunter (If suspended) Honeychurch if not

Also wouldn't be surprised if Richards comes out. He's been awesome thus far, but being a long season the chat may have been that he'd play a few and then go back to the VFL to work on a few thibgs. Made a couple of errors yesterday which would be identified and he could go away and work on them in the 2s and then cone back in after 1-2.
Boyd and Rough in the mix to come in too.

 

[DognBones]

Assuming Hunter is suspended based on our recent history with the MRP:
Out: Hunter, Biggs (seems to have lost confidence), Honey
In: Cordy, Lipinski, one of Boyd or Trengove ??

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Assuming Hunter is suspended based on our recent history with the MRP:

Recent history or not he should go for that imo.

 

[bobby2]

Recent history or not he should go for that imo.

Maybe he should, but I'll bet that the incident where naughton got punched in the eye doesn't even get looked at.

 

[Hard Ball Get]

Maybe he should, but I'll bet that the incident where naughton got punched in the eye doesn't even get looked at.

Nor should it

 

[TimlinOfficial]

English will obviously lose the hitouts to Sandi but fully expect him to be the better player around the ground, would only be bringing in ruck support if we feel the hitouts will be a significant factor in the contest - whether this week or next, I'd love to see Boyd in primarily as a forward who can provide that relief to English when necessary

 

[_M_16_]

IN: Lipinski, Boyd, Cordy

OUT: Hunter (suspended), Honeychurch, Jong