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Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
213
AFL Club
Collingwood
2nd T20 Kiwis v the Pommies (3.11.2019)

My lad Jonny Bairstow cashed the first game for a market that was mispriced by the layers. This lad has changed his game over the last few years, to be a real goer in the white ball game. Kind of like me hitting the dancefloor with water in my belly and pulling in the first 15 mins of hitting the clubs...the perks of being handsome and 6 foot 2. Dont hate lads.

Anyway, last 4 years this lad has cleared the pickets 9/11 occasions in T20....odds have been shortened in by the layers but @ $1.85 with TopSport....this bet still offers good value.

Jonny 'the lad' Bairstow >0.5 sixes @ $1.85 (ToppySport)

Get on it.

Martin Guptill to hit a 4 and a 6 @ $2.23 (ToppySport)

This lad is a good player, esp at home, where he cashes this market 67% of the time. These odds have blown out as the layers react to the first game. Keep taking the value. Relentlessly. Kind of like me never passing up at opportunity at meeting on a bird....and yes, I have picked up in the morning and then picked up at night. Im not proud of it. But they were glorious days. Always take the opportunity.
 
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ash_1050

Club Legend
Nov 21, 2009
2,705
4,419
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory and Arsenal
Curious as to why Warner under 10.5 runs at $3.70 kept getting a run when his last 18 T20 innings are as follows: 61*, 63, 19, 95, 69, 100*, 10, 15, 70*, 51, 50, 67, 57, 37, 81, 100*, 60* and 57* at a strike rate of 144.50.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
213
AFL Club
Collingwood
Curious as to why Warner under 10.5 runs at $3.70 kept getting a run when his last 18 T20 innings are as follows: 61*, 63, 19, 95, 69, 100*, 10, 15, 70*, 51, 50, 67, 57, 37, 81, 100*, 60* and 57* at a strike rate of 144.50.
As I said earlier.....I am here to teach the uneducmacated how the intelligenstia bet on sport.

I am happy to do this task....As onerous and formidable as it may be.

In t20....Warner scores under 10 runs ~38% of the time. This % isn't anything out of the ordinary compared other international players of comparable ability.

However, the odds offered by the relevant bookie is what makes this bet attractive.

Fair odds would be ~$2.60ish.... but bookies routinely get these markets wrong.

Lesson over.

Rookie.
 

ash_1050

Club Legend
Nov 21, 2009
2,705
4,419
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory and Arsenal
But you're using whole career stats, surely recent form is a better indicator? Otherwise you'd be backing Carlton for next year's AFL Grand Final having won 16 in the past. If it was Dave Warner under 10.5 runs in the most recent Ashes series then yeah I'd absolutely see the value in that as his recent form indicated he wouldn't make it past 10.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
213
AFL Club
Collingwood
But you're using whole career stats, surely recent form is a better indicator? Otherwise you'd be backing Carlton for next year's AFL Grand Final having won 16 in the past. If it was Dave Warner under 10.5 runs in the most recent Ashes series then yeah I'd absolutely see the value in that as his recent form indicated he wouldn't make it past 10.
You are quite welcome to take the overs mate.

This is the beauty of the marketplace.....
 

iluvparis

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 1, 2005
29,905
21,769
AFL Club
Carlton
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Calgary Flames, Man Utd
But you're using whole career stats, surely recent form is a better indicator? Otherwise you'd be backing Carlton for next year's AFL Grand Final having won 16 in the past. If it was Dave Warner under 10.5 runs in the most recent Ashes series then yeah I'd absolutely see the value in that as his recent form indicated he wouldn't make it past 10.
Carlton flag looks a sneaky value bet next year just quietly.
 

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Red Dog Styles

All Australian
Feb 13, 2017
855
484
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Some interesting matches coming up (all odds from TAB):

- India 1.15 v Bangladesh 5.50 t20 at midnight (no Kohli, Bangas won 1st match)

- Nz 1.70 v Poms 2.15 t20 (flip a coin)

- Aus 1.23 v Pakistan t20 4.20 (prop bet potential)

- Windies 1.55 v Afghanistan 2.40 ODI (WI should win but definitely no guarantee, Afghanistan home match)

Time for austtoraisetheurn to fill up the bank accounts for all the lads and ladettes.
Time for Father Burge to take out his seer stones and foresee a revelation.
Time for me to stfu....

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
213
AFL Club
Collingwood
Sorry for the break lads....been cleaning up at the bookies and have been cleaning up getting the numbers from the ladies.

The perks of being 6 foot 2 with great hair and eyes. Don't hate lads.

Got a ripper bet for the lads.

The bookies is pointsbet.

The market is "Player Sixes Bands"

The player is Colin De Grandhomme.

The bet is "to hit exactly 0 sixes"

The odds are $3.95

This market cashes ~50% of the time.

Either the bookies are drunk or high....or the work experience kid needs to redo year 12 maths before hitting schoolies week.

Hit the market because these odds don't come around often.

Pile in
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
213
AFL Club
Collingwood
Took 2 balls for him to hit a 6. Got out next ball.

Hit and giggle cricket isnt to be bet on, save it for the real stuff
I cleaned up last night on bets on Rohit Sharma and Pant.....there is heaps of value to be had in limited overs cricketer.....once again....it is easy to find. The hard thing is to stick to the process even if you take bad beats such as the bet you alude to there.

Even though that bet was a loser, it was still a great bet as the odds were clearly wrong.

I shouldnt have to sit here and explain this.....but I understand....get around the lads so we can call bankrupt some bookies.

This game is not rocket science. It is taking value bets time and time again.

Winners are grinners.

Lets grin.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
213
AFL Club
Collingwood
Got some ripper bets for the lads or ladettes.

WI v Afghanistan

SD Hope - WI high bat:
This lad has been in some ripping form for the Windies over the last 12 months, during which the Windies have played a lot of ODI cricket. Has been winning around 36% of the time in this market.....so odds of this lad going off again @ $4.00 (ToppySport) definitely gets me enticed.

The same sort of feeling as hooking a decent sort on POF or tinder....sweet talking her....then asking if you can hook up and she replies in the affirmative.. and quickly follows with her address (if she is extra keen). Those feelings are what we are after. It is why we gamble or look to pick up. I have been there on several occasions....those feels lads. It is easier for me....Im 6 foot 2 with great hair and a slim body in my early 30s. You lads might have to work a little harder but you can also follow me.

Get on this.

I even have a shorter bet for you soft lads who like to take the sure thing.

Roston Chase Under 0.5 sixes @ $1.60 (ToppySport)

Cashed 13/15 occasions.

Value comes in all sorts....this is value. Hit it like you lads hit your mattress after striking out again on Saturday night.
 

NonPhixion

Outlaw Immortalz
Mar 27, 2018
1,423
1,422
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Got some ripper bets for the lads or ladettes.

WI v Afghanistan

SD Hope - WI high bat:
This lad has been in some ripping form for the Windies over the last 12 months, during which the Windies have played a lot of ODI cricket. Has been winning around 36% of the time in this market.....so odds of this lad going off again @ $4.00 (ToppySport) definitely gets me enticed.

The same sort of feeling as hooking a decent sort on POF or tinder....sweet talking her....then asking if you can hook up and she replies in the affirmative.. and quickly follows with her address (if she is extra keen). Those feelings are what we are after. It is why we gamble or look to pick up. I have been there on several occasions....those feels lads. It is easier for me....Im 6 foot 2 with great hair and a slim body in my early 30s. You lads might have to work a little harder but you can also follow me.

Get on this.

I even have a shorter bet for you soft lads who like to take the sure thing.

Roston Chase Under 0.5 sixes @ $1.60 (ToppySport)

Cashed 13/15 occasions.

Value comes in all sorts....this is value. Hit it like you lads hit your mattress after striking out again on Saturday night.
I’ll show some support by tailing the chase bet for 1.5U.
Let’s get it!
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
213
AFL Club
Collingwood
Between the number of mentions of "lads" in here and some of the results, I'm not sure if this thread is being run by Henry Blofield or Nick Leeson.
The collapse of barings will look like a cake walk after my tips bankrupt the bookies this summer.

Pakistan shaping up to be some pretty decent competition....could well be a heal of juicy value alone.

Time to fire up the tinder app.
 

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