Society/Culture Do people actually think society will collapse due to climate change?

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Seeds

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This article is bizarre. I dont get it. What are people basing the idea of society collapse due to climate change on? Sure it will have economic consequences but they are a slow burn in most cases and will not even get close to offsetting per capita economic growth overtime. Some rural areas will become deserted, some pacific islands and coastal regions will flood and become uninhabital. But other areas will flourish. Weather events will create costs and added living burdens but thats all it will do. All managable.



Are we dropping the ball on the main threat to society collapse? I.e.
1) the collapse of the western liberal order and the resultant wars it will lead to (and the rise of authoritarians that terrorise their citizens)

2) too many rogue nations getting nuclear technology which will ultimately lead to a major nuclear accident or deliberate use of nuclear booms.

3) major virus outbreak

All of these seem much much bigger concerns than climate change.
 

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This article is bizarre. I dont get it. What are people basing the idea of society collapse due to climate change on? Sure it will have economic consequences but they are a slow burn in most cases and will not even get close to offsetting per capita economic growth overtime. Some rural areas will become deserted, some pacific islands and coastal regions will flood and become uninhabital. But other areas will flourish. Weather events will create costs and added living burdens but thats all it will do. All managable.



Are we dropping the ball on the main threat to society collapse? I.e.
1) the collapse of the western liberal order and the resultant wars it will lead to (and the rise of authoritarians that terrorise their citizens)

2) too many rogue nations getting nuclear technology which will ultimately lead to a major nuclear accident or deliberate use of nuclear booms.

3) major virus outbreak

All of these seem much much bigger concerns than climate change.
Climate change will eventually lead to the Earth becoming unliveable.
There's no past lessons of this from history that we can learn from.
 

Seeds

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Climate change will eventually lead to the Earth becoming unliveable.
There's no past lessons of this from history that we can learn from.
But how will that happen with 2-4 degrees of average temperature change? This isnt unliveable. Some areas will actually become more liveable. Modern humans are capable of dealing with extreme heat and cold now. If eskimos can survive in lapland without heating or modern farming methods then why would we struggle? Mongolians lived through winters of -30 degrees celcius with no modern heating systems and could raise armies to take over the world. How does human society collapse with 2-4 degrees of tempersture change? Seriously can someone explain how?
 
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But how will that happen with 2-4 degrees of average temperature change? This isnt unliveable. Some areas will actually become more liveable. Modern humans are capable of dealing with extreme heat and cold now. If eskimos can survive in lapland without heating or modern farming methods then why would we struggle?
Who says the tempreture change will be restricted to a rise 4 degrees?
As greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere who knows what long term affect that will have. Will it trigger a runaway effect as what they predicted happened on Venus? It's thought that Venus once had an earth-like atmosphere.
 

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For both Dark Age collapses it seems to have been caused by mass migration after a climate change / plague event. The Sea Peoples of the Late Bronze Age, and the Germanic tribes of Late Antiquity.
Mass Famines and plagues no doubt contributed to wars and civilisation change in the past. Although usually not on their own. If roman breeding rates matched the migrating barbarians rates they would of more easily countered their impact. Plus romes turn towards dictatorship and the creation of an environment that didnt encourage new techology adoption also was a major driver.

And its hard to see climate change causing mass famines in the modern age on their own. The world hasnt had a mass climate related famine in a century (ignoring small famines caused by natural disasters). Trade combined with high agriculture productivity and the ability to process food means we no longer get mass famines except during times of war or gross economic negligence (i.e. great leap forward). Further adoption of GM food also will help deal with climate. We would need war and mass economic negligence to happen first before climate change could drive mass famine and further civilisational change.
 

Seeds

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Who says the tempreture change will be restricted to a rise 4 degrees?
As greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere who knows what long term affect that will have. Will it trigger a runaway effect as what they predicted happened on Venus? It's thought that Venus once had an earth-like atmosphere.
That wont happen though. We already have the technology to reduce emissions to near zero. They just cost a bit more. There costs will fall and renewables will eventually replace all fossil fuels because they will be more profitable. We will also switch to cell based meat which reduces methane emissions from livestock. Its whether all this adoption happens within the next decade due to regulation or three decades from now due to cost improvements. The downside climate cases of 10 degree temperature change are off the table. Wont happen. They assume no technology change which is inevitable now. 6 degrees will be the upper limit i would think but 2-4 far more likely.
 

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That wont happen though. We already have the technology to reduce emissions to near zero. They just cost a bit more. There costs will fall and renewables will eventually replace all fossil fuels because they will be more profitable. We will also switch to cell based meat which reduces methane emissions from livestock. Its whether all this adoption happens within the next decade due to regulation or three decades from now due to cost improvements. The downside climate cases of 10 degree temperature change are off the table. Wont happen. They assume no technology change which is inevitable now. 6 degrees will be the upper limit i would think but 2-4 far more likely.
The longer we delay reducing emissions the more likley we are to reach the point of no return where emission reductions have no further benefit.
 

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Mass Famines and plagues no doubt contributed to wars and civilisation change in the past. Although usually not on their own. If roman breeding rates matched the migrating barbarians rates they would of more easily countered their impact. Plus romes turn towards dictatorship and the creation of an environment that didnt encourage new techology adoption also was a major driver.

And its hard to see climate change causing mass famines in the modern age on their own. The world hasnt had a mass climate related famine in a century (ignoring small famines caused by natural disasters). Trade combined with high agriculture productivity and the ability to process food means we no longer get mass famines except during times of war or gross economic negligence (i.e. great leap forward). Further adoption of GM food also will help deal with climate. We would need war and mass economic negligence to happen first before climate change could drive mass famine and further civilisational change.
You really struggle to put a coherent thought together don’t you?
 

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Who says the tempreture change will be restricted to a rise 4 degrees?
As greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere who knows what long term affect that will have. Will it trigger a runaway effect as what they predicted happened on Venus? It's thought that Venus once had an earth-like atmosphere.
Venus might have once had an earth-like atmosphere. 4 billion years ago. I'm curious about who 'predicted' what happened back then.

Just like on the Earth the CO2 levels on Venus would have lagged the long term temperature changes.
 

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Venus might have once had an earth-like atmosphere. 4 billion years ago. I'm curious about who 'predicted' what happened back then.

Just like on the Earth the CO2 levels on Venus would have lagged the long term temperature changes.
 

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No it wont collapse, we will adapt.

Humans seem to thrive on doomsday scenarios and the media feed it with endless exaggerated, sensationalised clickbait commentary, it's like the coronavirus IMO, there is a problem but the hysteria generated is beyond proportion to the threat.
Human nature for guilt complex and doomsday scenarios combined with the current media focus on sensationalised stories is the perfect storm.

But despite the climate change alarmism I am still waiting for the great Australian migration from Queensland to Tasmania.
 

Seeds

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Venus might have once had an earth-like atmosphere. 4 billion years ago. I'm curious about who 'predicted' what happened back then.

Just like on the Earth the CO2 levels on Venus would have lagged the long term temperature changes.
Pretty sure venus problem wasnt due to aliens burning fossil fuels even though though had clean technologies available at slightly hgher cost.
 

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Some rural areas will become deserted, some pacific islands and coastal regions will flood and become uninhabital. But other areas will flourish.
This will certainly cause the collapse of several societies, and yet you brush it off so easily. Which country is going to take in all the Pacific Islanders when their homes sink beneath the waves? And which one will take in Maldivians? The Dutch when the sea rises higher than their dikes? The Bangladeshis who have 100 million people living on low-lying coastal land? Other areas might flourish, but it won't be easy, economically, socially or politically.
 

HairyO

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Climate change will eventually lead to the Earth becoming unliveable.
There's no past lessons of this from history that we can learn from.
10 times the CO2 when dinosaurs ruled and the world was covered in forests.

Maybe us cutting down all the trees makes it unlivable. Not the weather.
 

ferball

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Pretty sure venus problem wasnt due to aliens burning fossil fuels even though though had clean technologies available at slightly hgher cost.
On the basis of what?

It happened millions of years ago on another planet.

On that basis alone aliens is the most logical explanation.
 

M Malice

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This will certainly cause the collapse of several societies, and yet you brush it off so easily. Which country is going to take in all the Pacific Islanders when their homes sink beneath the waves? And which one will take in Maldivians? The Dutch when the sea rises higher than their dikes? The Bangladeshis who have 100 million people living on low-lying coastal land? Other areas might flourish, but it won't be easy, economically, socially or politically.
Hi JB, the Maldive government doesn't seem too concerned about being swallowed up by the ocean.

https://maldives.net.mv/31166/maldives-to-open-five-new-airports-in-2019/

Five new airports will come into operation by the end of the year, Maldives government announced Sunday.

Transport minister Aishath Nahula told local media that construction of airports on the islands of Kulhudhuffushi in Haa Dhaal atoll, Funadhoo in Shaviyani atoll, Maafaru in Noonu atoll, Madivaru in Lhaviyani atoll and Maavarulu in Gaaf Dhaal atoll is nearing completion. Kulhudhuffushi airport will come into operation first, followed by Funadhoo and Maafaru airport in August, she said.

Also. Paywall so I can't access the whole article from 2017.

We need development': Maldives switches focus from climate threat to mass tourism
The new government plans to relocate residents to larger atolls – leaving small islands ripe for development. It says these super resorts, not solar power, will create the money needed to adapt to climate change
 

Seeds

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This will certainly cause the collapse of several societies, and yet you brush it off so easily. Which country is going to take in all the Pacific Islanders when their homes sink beneath the waves? And which one will take in Maldivians? The Dutch when the sea rises higher than their dikes? The Bangladeshis who have 100 million people living on low-lying coastal land? Other areas might flourish, but it won't be easy, economically, socially or politically.
I dont brush it off. Its not civilisational collapse though. Communities and broader western civilisation are very very different orders of magnitude. And none of the people this article is refering to are islanders at risk of flooding. These are western people living in cities with all the wealth and access to air conditioing and heating and solid brick homes. Communities will perish, mostly due to forced relocation then death. And this is terrible for these people. But its not the end of civilisation. Its ridiculous to claim it is.
 

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No it wont collapse, we will adapt.

Humans seem to thrive on doomsday scenarios and the media feed it with endless exaggerated, sensationalised clickbait commentary, it's like the coronavirus IMO, there is a problem but the hysteria generated is beyond proportion to the threat.
Adaptation has taken many forms in the past, such as rapid depopulation and the loss of techniques for a thousand years. Europe literally forgot how to do many things twice in its history, between the Mycenaean Greeks and the Classical Greeks, and between the Roman Empire and the Renaissance.

The ability to write was completely lost in most parts of the Western world during the Bronze Age collapse.

This is a good video

 

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