Society/Culture Do people actually think society will collapse due to climate change?

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ferball

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And yet there are no wheat, lamb or beef shortages let alone shortages of food in general. Why is that?
We imported wheat for the first time in over a decade and half last year didn't we?

Have you seen lamb prices? Meanwhile steers are $6 a kilo live weight. That's heaps.
 

HairyO

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We imported wheat for the first time in over a decade and half last year didn't we?

Have you seen lamb prices? Meanwhile steers are $6 a kilo live weight. That's heaps.
We export simply huge amounts. Many times what we need to survive as a nation. With or without drought.

If it really became a risk the govt would restrict exports. And we would still be a fat, over-eating country.
 

Present Not Past

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We export simply huge amounts. Many times what we need to survive as a nation. With or without drought.

If it really became a risk the govt would restrict exports. And we would still be a fat, over-eating country.
If a country starts reducing it's exports it has to start reducing it's imports as well, in order to survive.
 

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Seeds

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We imported wheat for the first time in over a decade and half last year didn't we?

Have you seen lamb prices? Meanwhile steers are $6 a kilo live weight. That's heaps.
Yes imports. We can import from the the other side fo the planet now. plus we are no longer reliant on eating from 5 or so crops as in the past. We have 100s of options now.
 

Seeds

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If a country starts reducing it's exports it has to start reducing it's imports as well, in order to survive.
thats not true. Trade balances dont have to be balanced except in the very very long run. Like 50 years. and have you heard of dutch diesease? If we lose agriculture exports then we get the reverse of dutch disease. i.e. Our exchange rate would fall leading to tourism and education exports to boom Which woukd offset the loss. The magic of floating exchange rates.
 

sorted

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Society can collapse due to many forms of human stupidity.

Irrational fear is a great driver.
I'm reading reports by UK academics that to achieve zero 'carbon' emissions by 2050 we need to
  • ban all petrol and diesel vehicles
  • end all flights and close all airports
  • end all shipping
  • beef and lamb agriculture prohibited
  • cement and new steel production prohibited
These are huge changes and significant downgrades to our way of life. They would have more negative impact on society than those brought by climate change.
 

Seeds

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I'm reading reports by UK academics that to achieve zero 'carbon' emissions by 2050 we need to
  • ban all petrol and diesel vehicles
  • end all flights and close all airports
  • end all shipping
  • beef and lamb agriculture prohibited
  • cement and new steel production prohibited
These are huge changes and significant downgrades to our way of life. They would have more negative impact on society than those brought by climate change.
There is a way around it. create negative emissions through carbon capture of biofuels. That way you can still have some of the other emissions and reach net zero. And with peak crop land reached we can now return more agriculture land to forests to suck up extra carbon.

electric and hydrogen cars can completely replace petrol and will do so without regulation before 2050 cos these cars will be cheaper over their lifecycle.

beef and lamb can be replaced by cell based meat. This is also a better option for many reasons not just climate. No livestock deaths and the meat can be more nutritious for those who want it to be.

there are ways to make new steel and cement much lower emission intensive.

the other forms of emissions you mention are pretty insignificant and can Be covered through negative emissions created by biofuel ccs And forest replanting.
 
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M Malice

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I'm reading reports by UK academics that to achieve zero 'carbon' emissions by 2050 we need to
  • ban all petrol and diesel vehicles
  • end all flights and close all airports
  • end all shipping
  • beef and lamb agriculture prohibited
  • cement and new steel production prohibited
These are huge changes and significant downgrades to our way of life. They would have more negative impact on society than those brought by climate change.
Maybe we should all just move back into caves.
1583445603289.png
 

This Is Anfield

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I'm reading reports by UK academics that to achieve zero 'carbon' emissions by 2050 we need to
  • ban all petrol and diesel vehicles
  • end all flights and close all airports
  • end all shipping
  • beef and lamb agriculture prohibited
  • cement and new steel production prohibited
These are huge changes and significant downgrades to our way of life. They would have more negative impact on society than those brought by climate change.
No, man... we'll be cool
1583560019730.png
 

sorted

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There is a way around it. create negative emissions through carbon capture of biofuels. That way you can still have some of the other emissions and reach net zero. And with peak crop land reached we can now return more agriculture land to forests to suck up extra carbon.

the other forms of emissions you mention are pretty insignificant and can Be covered through negative emissions created by biofuel ccs And forest replanting.
The numbers I have seen make carbon capture and storage completely unviable as a means for achieving emissions reduction. This article in Nature estimates the total amount of emissions that need to be avoided between now and 2050 to stay under 2 degrees — at 800 gigatons. And of course, we’ll have to bury hundreds of gigatons more in the years after 2050.
We would need to be compressing, transporting, and burying an amount of CO2, by volume, that is two to four times the amount of fluids that the global oil and gas industry deals with today. And of course any such a scheme would come at an enormous, world economic level cost. Burying CO2 has no short-term economic benefits.

Either way you look at it the cost of the cure for climate change is worse than the supposed illness.
 

ferball

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The numbers I have seen make carbon capture and storage completely unviable as a means for achieving emissions reduction. This article in Nature estimates the total amount of emissions that need to be avoided between now and 2050 to stay under 2 degrees — at 800 gigatons. And of course, we’ll have to bury hundreds of gigatons more in the years after 2050.
We would need to be compressing, transporting, and burying an amount of CO2, by volume, that is two to four times the amount of fluids that the global oil and gas industry deals with today. And of course any such a scheme would come at an enormous, world economic level cost. Burying CO2 has no short-term economic benefits.

Either way you look at it the cost of the cure for climate change is worse than the supposed illness.
The temp rise won't stop at 4 deg or at the end of the century. It will continue to happen afterward. At that point your bolded comment will be shown to be false.

The fact people don't want to face in all this is that even without co2 or greenhouse gases human economic activity will drive global warming and if growth continues unhindered for say another three to five hundred years at some point the surface of the planet will boil as a runaway greenhouse effect kicks in.

This isn't Greenie alarmism either.

It's basic physics. The size of every economy is proportional to the amount of energy it uses or expends as economic activity happens.

All energy use generates waste heat.

The earth dumps heat into space at a rate that lags it's absorption of the Suns heat, otherwise we'd be all frozen solid.

At some point there will be a tipping point where the immediate heat generated isn't emitted fast enough to stop a runaway temperature rise.
 

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sorted

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The fact people don't want to face in all this is that even without co2 or greenhouse gases human economic activity will drive global warming and if growth continues unhindered for say another three to five hundred years at some point the surface of the planet will boil as a runaway greenhouse effect kicks in.
LOL
 

Seeds

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The temp rise won't stop at 4 deg or at the end of the century. It will continue to happen afterward. At that point your bolded comment will be shown to be false.

The fact people don't want to face in all this is that even without co2 or greenhouse gases human economic activity will drive global warming and if growth continues unhindered for say another three to five hundred years at some point the surface of the planet will boil as a runaway greenhouse effect kicks in.

This isn't Greenie alarmism either.

It's basic physics. The size of every economy is proportional to the amount of energy it uses or expends as economic activity happens.

All energy use generates waste heat.

The earth dumps heat into space at a rate that lags it's absorption of the Suns heat, otherwise we'd be all frozen solid.

At some point there will be a tipping point where the immediate heat generated isn't emitted fast enough to stop a runaway temperature rise.
Um but what if all human produced energy is solar energy?
 

Deliverance

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Some suggestions here of mass migrations. Is there enough room for a billion Indians in Australia?



"1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today."
 

HardcoreGeelongFan

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This article is bizarre. I dont get it. What are people basing the idea of society collapse due to climate change on? Sure it will have economic consequences but they are a slow burn in most cases and will not even get close to offsetting per capita economic growth overtime. Some rural areas will become deserted, some pacific islands and coastal regions will flood and become uninhabital. But other areas will flourish. Weather events will create costs and added living burdens but thats all it will do. All managable.



Are we dropping the ball on the main threat to society collapse? I.e.
1) the collapse of the western liberal order and the resultant wars it will lead to (and the rise of authoritarians that terrorise their citizens)

2) too many rogue nations getting nuclear technology which will ultimately lead to a major nuclear accident or deliberate use of nuclear booms.

3) major virus outbreak

All of these seem much much bigger concerns than climate change.
Yes seeds climate change is a joke and this virus is just the flu
 

Sinjin Smith

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This will certainly cause the collapse of several societies, and yet you brush it off so easily. Which country is going to take in all the Pacific Islanders when their homes sink beneath the waves? And which one will take in Maldivians? The Dutch when the sea rises higher than their dikes? The Bangladeshis who have 100 million people living on low-lying coastal land? Other areas might flourish, but it won't be easy, economically, socially or politically.
The majority of the peoples you have mentioned will gradually perish as they move further inland rather than cause a mass refugee intake.
 

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