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5 flags in 9 years is underachieving? You greedy bastard. St Kilda supporters read this you know
Most underachieving teams?
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Randall Stevens
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Essendon defeated Carlton by 39 and 76 points in their two h&a meetings in ‘99. Having choked in the Prelim it has always struck me as very rich for Essendon to assume they would have beaten North - clearly a superior team to Carlton as they proved the next week - in a theoretical Grand Final.
For mine, Essendon across the three year period of 1999 - 2001 is either a very good side which is overrated based on one exceptional season, or they are massive under achievers.
boncer34
Formerly "Dos23"
You think after surviving a massive scare by being arrogant and cocky against Carlton that Essendon would be arrogant and cocky against North a week later?
2000 showed how that Essendon playing group responded to being exposed for their arrogance.
Is it a guarantee they'd win?
No.
But it's incredibly likely.
- Nov 1, 2021
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The current Melbourne team.
Carlton. Have the afl hanging tongue first off the end of their knob, given every chance to build a proper side and year after year they’ve failed.
Current melb side is heading that way. Got a cup, but damn, the afl literally picked them up and walked them to the podium. They’ve underperformed a lot considering.
Like at least 2000-2004 port faced arguably the most stacked side in history built from a historic merger. Melbourne are floundering up against no one. There’s no dominant team right now.
Port has underperformed under Hinkley not too the same level of these other teams but yeah.
Current melb side is heading that way. Got a cup, but damn, the afl literally picked them up and walked them to the podium. They’ve underperformed a lot considering.
Like at least 2000-2004 port faced arguably the most stacked side in history built from a historic merger. Melbourne are floundering up against no one. There’s no dominant team right now.
Port has underperformed under Hinkley not too the same level of these other teams but yeah.
Randall Stevens
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North were a very good team in ‘99. They were in their sixth consecutive prelim or better, and were seeking to avenge their own blown GF from the year before. They finished only one game behind Essendon in the h&a season ‘99.
I’ll concede that Essendon would have been favourite in a grand final that didn’t happen because they didn’t make it, but it would have been a long way from a certainty and North may well have won totally on merit.
That said, I would much rather believe that Essendon drastically under achieved in ‘99, because it is a notion which I greatly enjoy!
- Mar 25, 2003
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I find it hard to criticise a squad for underachieving if they did win a flag. It's a bloody tough thing to do.
The one people drift towards is Essendon 1999-2001 but that's only because they were so dominant in 2000 yet when you look at that year in isolation you do miss a bit of context - Eagles were done as a force, North had one last flick of the tail in 1999 that succeeded (largely driven on by themselves butchering the 98 grand final) and were entering the same phase the Eagles did about 3 years earlier (still good but the aura diminishing) and Brisbane had yet to fully emerge.
Yes, it was the most dominant individual season in history but I find it hard to believe the best team to grace an AFL field has a starting midfield of Joe Misit, Justin Blumfield and Jason Johnson. James Hird adds a lot of class but he was a forward/midfield utility more than pure midfielder.
Adelaide winning back to back from the middle of the eight meant other clubs are going to get squeezed out through that period.
From modern times, the biggest underachiever has got to be Geelong 89-95 with four grand final losses and no flags. St Kilda in the late 00's had more than enough to win a flag and came within a bee's dick of doing just so. Western Bulldogs will probably rue the late 90's and late 00's but not sure you'd call them underachieving as they had some pretty good teams in front of them, particularly during the latter period.
The one people drift towards is Essendon 1999-2001 but that's only because they were so dominant in 2000 yet when you look at that year in isolation you do miss a bit of context - Eagles were done as a force, North had one last flick of the tail in 1999 that succeeded (largely driven on by themselves butchering the 98 grand final) and were entering the same phase the Eagles did about 3 years earlier (still good but the aura diminishing) and Brisbane had yet to fully emerge.
Yes, it was the most dominant individual season in history but I find it hard to believe the best team to grace an AFL field has a starting midfield of Joe Misit, Justin Blumfield and Jason Johnson. James Hird adds a lot of class but he was a forward/midfield utility more than pure midfielder.
Adelaide winning back to back from the middle of the eight meant other clubs are going to get squeezed out through that period.
From modern times, the biggest underachiever has got to be Geelong 89-95 with four grand final losses and no flags. St Kilda in the late 00's had more than enough to win a flag and came within a bee's dick of doing just so. Western Bulldogs will probably rue the late 90's and late 00's but not sure you'd call them underachieving as they had some pretty good teams in front of them, particularly during the latter period.
Crankyhawk
Brownlow Medallist
You didn’t consider the known umpiring bias in favor of 2016 dogs - just ask any Sydney supporter…No my disturbed friend, I love the consideration of opponents. Love it.
That is why i think:
- a team, ie Bulldogs 2016, who beat 4 opponents in finals by an average margin of 25 points, with those opponents having an average of 17 home and away wins and average percentage of 139%,
- and lost to no teams in finals
- and won 1 Preliminary Final, 1 Grand Final & 1 Premiership
is better than a team, ie Bulldogs 08-10 who
- beat 3 teams in finals by an average margin of 31 points, with those teams winning an average of 13 home and away wins and average percentage of 109%,
- and lost to 6 teams in finals by an average margin of 31 points, with those teams averaging 18 home and away wins with an average percentage of 140%
- and won no Preliminary Finals, Grand Finals or Premierships
But this is the elegant beauty of fagic. It can side-step these rather inconvenient facts by the simple expedient of stating the person who noticed them is a stat sheet analysing liar. And some irrelevant idiotic diatribe about Fadge playing golf against:
a) his 95 yo grand-mother, and
b) Tiger Woods, and
c) Fadge shooting 85 & 90 in the process.
None of that ever happened, but under fagic, it did.
Given the 79 frees for 48 frees against free kick score line in favour of the Bulldogs that finals series, represented a roughly 8 free kick swing per final towards the Bulldogs when compared to their home and away free kick average, it does raise certain red flags with me.
Free kick counts on their own are not a safe way to judge umpire bias. Collingwood in 2023 had a 40-54 free kick count in the finals, but few neutral observers who watched the games would be in any doubt the umpiring fell heavily Collingwood's way.
I can't recall all the 4 finals played by the Dogs well enough to comment on the umpiring overall. I have watched replays of certain parts of the Grand Final, and it is probably undeniable the Bulldogs got some favourable umpiring in that match. Did the umpires make the difference in them winning in all or any of the finals in 2016? My answer is I simply don't know. Their 8 free kicks per match surplus looks very unusual. What are 8 free kicks worth? I personally think a free kick is on average worth about 1 x inside 50, given free kicks are on average awarded in the centre of the ground and from there the recipient team would normally get inside 50 before the opposition team touches the ball. What is an inside 50 worth? The Dogs had 234 inside 50's for 56 goals 48 behinds that finals series. So 384 points total from 234 inside 50's. So an inside 50 to them looks to have been worth 1.64 points on average. If for example you neutralised their 31 free kick surplus, you would likely be reducing their scoring surplus by about 31 x 1.64 points across the finals series. 51 points on the scoreboard. They won their 4 finals by a combined 97 points.
The Grand Final free kick surplus was 12. 12 x 1.64 = 20 points. The Bulldogs won by 21 points. Would pure neutral umpiring have changed the result of the match?
The trouble with this kind of analysis is it is purely speculative. But based on the unsafe assumption that a neutral free kick count = neutral umpiring across the 4 finals, we could still say the Bulldogs played well enough to accumulate a 48 point scoring surplus across 4 finals, 3 of which were played on the opponent's home ground, none of which were played on the Bulldogs home ground, and the weakest performance of any of those 4 opponents in the home and away season had been 16w-6l 143%. So they were all strongly performed teams.
So you should be satisfied I have now considered the question of "known umpiring bias."
Love this.
A negative 14 free kick count across the finals series, and the umpiring still HEAVILY fell in Collingwood's favour.
There are no neutrals when Collingwood play finals.
You either support Collingwood and want them to win, or don't support Collingwood and want them to lose.
That comes with being the biggest and best AFL club in the world.
The trouble is if you put it to your normal test of what neutrals would say Fadge, we are all saying the same thing, Collingwood were heavily favoured by the umpires in the 2023 finals series. Their players seemed to somehow understand they could infringe at one rate and be penalised at a much lesser rate. Nick Daicos had a total green light. He could take opponent's heads off without penalty then lower his own head into tackles and shrug his way to incorrect free kicks.
This and your 12 point total surplus in scoring across 3 finals combined made this the biggest gimp flag ever.
Thank you for giving me the opportunity to share my thoughts on that with everyone here.
Trouble is Richmond were competing v 17 other clubs on largely unfavourable terms to Richmond, more away games and finals, 2nd worst free kick differential in the League, more best 22 games lost to Covid related issues, shortened games, shortened season, finals free-kick count stacked against them, and still won the 3 finals they had to win to take the flag by a combined 68 points. Adjusted to normal game time this is 85 points. Over 7 times the amount by which Collingwood won their 3 finals to take their gimp flag in 2023.
Collingwood got fellated by umpires all season, with some g-spot stimulation added in finals, never left their home ground during finals, playing 2 interstate teams, had a key player let off by the tribunal for concussing an opponent well AFTER he had disposed of the ball, and won their 3 finals by a combined 12 points. Less than 14% of the margin Richmond held over their 3 vanquished opponents in the finals in 2020. Biggest gimp flag in history by the length of the Flemington straight Fadge. No actually, the length of the whole Flemington racecourse.
But once again, thank you for giving me the opportunity to explain this.
Nice try again, for you.Trouble is Richmond were competing v 17 other clubs on largely unfavourable terms to Richmond, more away games and finals, 2nd worst free kick differential in the League, more best 22 games lost to Covid related issues, shortened games, shortened season, finals free-kick count stacked against them, and still won the 3 finals they had to win to take the flag by a combined 68 points. Adjusted to normal game time this is 85 points. Over 7 times the amount by which Collingwood won their 3 finals to take their gimp flag in 2023.
Collingwood got fellated by umpires all season, with some g-spot stimulation added in finals, never left their home ground during finals, playing 2 interstate teams, had a key player let off by the tribunal for concussing an opponent well AFTER he had disposed of the ball, and won their 3 finals by a combined 12 points. Less than 14% of the margin Richmond held over their 3 vanquished opponents in the finals in 2020. Biggest gimp flag in history by the length of the Flemington straight Fadge. No actually, the length of the whole Flemington racecourse.
But once again, thank you for giving me the opportunity to explain this.
But we all know 2020* will always have an asterisk against it.
Apologies to the brainchilds of AFLX for my earlier comparison to COVID2020 - in retrospect it was quite the insult to AFLX.
Lesson for Richmond supporters - if your team finishes top 2 and wins all of their finals games, as an MCG tenant you will not have to leave the MCG. Appreciate you're likely not aware of this arrangement.
- Sep 30, 2015
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St Kilda to me is the most underachieved of all time from the 2004 to 2010 period. I think St Kilda would have won the 2004 premiership had they beat Port in that prelim, since Brisbane were playing injured in that Grand final. The pitch invasion ultimately cost The Saints a second premiership, lol. Adelaide were not the best team of 2005-06, they barely nabbed the minor premiership in 2005 and then fell a part in finals against the top 4 sides. 2017 is the year they were probably the best team, though, and they blew their shot at a premiership. Western Bulldogs weren't the best during the 2008-2010 period, either.
Crankyhawk
Brownlow Medallist
I recall the game they beat us (week 2) we had 100 tackles and no frees for holding the ball
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Essendon and Port Adelaide are very comparable in that era, 3 minor premierships in a row but only 1 premiership, literally happening both within a 6 year period from 1999-2004, all involving Damien Hardwick.
By bringing the totally irrelevant AFLX into the conversation, you are fantasising your points to try to denigrate a hard won and well deserved Richmond flag that was won by a very solid margin, over 7 x the margin of Collingwood's 3 winning finals.
On the other hand I am merely relying on objective facts to show that Collingwood's 2023 flag won with huge umpire and tribunal assistance by a combined total of 12 points across 3 home finals was a gimp flag. Possibly the only one in history that I would rate that low.
But thank you once again Fadge for allowing me to explain this, it is a wonderful opportunity you have generously given me.
PowerfulPies2023
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In the 90's - West Coast. MCG rule destroyed them big time that decade. As it did the Lions in 2004. Absolutely pathetic stuff. Stuff of the Pittman mould. The Pittman! ( Pittman Material )
Arguably North. Not arguably. Factual. Kicked themselves out of the game in that 94 Prelim. Injuries were their undoing in 93. 1997 Pagan was livid at Archer and Schwass they were huge losses but I still fancy the Sainters who were rampant with Heatley up forward. 16 goals in two games vs North that season. 98 GF 6.15 was their score at half time. Made up for it the next year though as the Bombers suffered the same fate vs the Blues in that epic Prelim. Bombers themselves deserved more in 96 and the season mentioned.
The 90's really was a decade that delivered. But also consisted of Teams that failed to deliver. The good old Navy Blues really faded away badly in seasons 92 and 94, thank God for 95. That 92 season was a lot like 2022 where they lost their last couple of games falling out of the finals places.
And what about The Western Bulldogs? Another 90's team that promised so much. Displayed so much. But returned so little. Prelims in 92, 97, 98, 99 lost to an Eagles team that was diabolical after the half way mark. 1994 lost after the siren to the cats then were humiliated by Gary Lyon and The Dees a week later. 97 was the one that got away though man that Liberatore kick looked good imo. Failed prelims would bite the dogs again in the latter 2000's so thank god for 2016.
Port and Adelaide had their fair share of squandered opportunities in the 2000's. Port made amends in 2004 but the Crows weren't so lucky.
Adelaide - 2002, Prelim. 2003, semis. 2005&6, prelims. 2007 - Buddy Stile the show. 2008&9 - We got em twice. 2017 belted.
Port - 2001,02,03 they were known as the great chokers. Revisited those times again somewhat of late.
We've lost our fair share of Grannies too but were second best in 2003, 2011 and 2018. Chance blown in 2019 vs The Giants but Richmond would have beaten us comfortably anyway.
Geelong, well their record speaks for itself.
Swans - Lost a lot of grannies too. 2006, 2014, 2016, 2022 - I reckon they were lucky in 2005. Sampi was held. Phil Matera and Lynch didn't play who were their two leading goal scorers. Lynch was in bad form but Worsfold made two shocking decisions that day selecting Gaspar and was it Jaxon Crabb or someone? Lucky free kick to Hall for that hold on Cox. Very lucky.
To be fair the umpiring in 2016 was nothing short of shambolic.
Arguably North. Not arguably. Factual. Kicked themselves out of the game in that 94 Prelim. Injuries were their undoing in 93. 1997 Pagan was livid at Archer and Schwass they were huge losses but I still fancy the Sainters who were rampant with Heatley up forward. 16 goals in two games vs North that season. 98 GF 6.15 was their score at half time. Made up for it the next year though as the Bombers suffered the same fate vs the Blues in that epic Prelim. Bombers themselves deserved more in 96 and the season mentioned.
The 90's really was a decade that delivered. But also consisted of Teams that failed to deliver. The good old Navy Blues really faded away badly in seasons 92 and 94, thank God for 95. That 92 season was a lot like 2022 where they lost their last couple of games falling out of the finals places.
And what about The Western Bulldogs? Another 90's team that promised so much. Displayed so much. But returned so little. Prelims in 92, 97, 98, 99 lost to an Eagles team that was diabolical after the half way mark. 1994 lost after the siren to the cats then were humiliated by Gary Lyon and The Dees a week later. 97 was the one that got away though man that Liberatore kick looked good imo. Failed prelims would bite the dogs again in the latter 2000's so thank god for 2016.
Port and Adelaide had their fair share of squandered opportunities in the 2000's. Port made amends in 2004 but the Crows weren't so lucky.
Adelaide - 2002, Prelim. 2003, semis. 2005&6, prelims. 2007 - Buddy Stile the show. 2008&9 - We got em twice. 2017 belted.
Port - 2001,02,03 they were known as the great chokers. Revisited those times again somewhat of late.
We've lost our fair share of Grannies too but were second best in 2003, 2011 and 2018. Chance blown in 2019 vs The Giants but Richmond would have beaten us comfortably anyway.
Geelong, well their record speaks for itself.
Swans - Lost a lot of grannies too. 2006, 2014, 2016, 2022 - I reckon they were lucky in 2005. Sampi was held. Phil Matera and Lynch didn't play who were their two leading goal scorers. Lynch was in bad form but Worsfold made two shocking decisions that day selecting Gaspar and was it Jaxon Crabb or someone? Lucky free kick to Hall for that hold on Cox. Very lucky.
To be fair the umpiring in 2016 was nothing short of shambolic.
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- Sep 30, 2015
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I do wish they had played 2020 out with the full 20 minute quarters, even if they had to take that season into December, or add more subs.
- Oct 29, 2017
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Richmond have won 8 of their last 10. Hardly a stretch. So have Hawthorn. Carlton 8 of their last 11.
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We’ve won 1 of of our last 1. 100%.
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