Pick 1 2023 Trade value - What would it take?

[naysayer]

Honestly lots of people are suggesting all those things...

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

They're all BS.

But equally stupid is the assertion the Dan Curtin is not an attractive player for the Eagles in this draft.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Putting all of the posturing and fake negotiations aside, what do people see as the actual pick value difference between Reid and McKercher?

Pick 7 for me. Anything after and you might end up with a player who is abit meh plus if McKercher is any good he will become the most overpaid player in the league when Tassie come in.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

How long do you have to go back for pick 1 to be the best player of his draft?

2 and 3 is just much more value imo.

 

[bzparkes]

Oscar Allen and Harley Reid now following each other on instagram

 

[Caligo]

How long do you have to go back for pick 1 to be the best player of his draft?

2 and 3 is just much more value imo.

Nick Reiwoldt, Luke Hodge and Brendon Goddard are your choices. So probably Goddard in 2002.

2002 was an awful draft all round. The next best player was probably Jobe Watson then Malceski and Wells.

 

[JackOutback]

They're all BS.

But equally stupid is the assertion the Dan Curtin is not an attractive player for the Eagles in this draft.

Dan Curtin would be a great get. But Harley Reid would be a better get.

 

[bluebaggerjuls]

pick 2+3. If north dont wanna do that take Reid 1 and offer the house for Curtain in 2 years time

 

[Jupes]

How long do you have to go back for pick 1 to be the best player of his draft?

2 and 3 is just much more value imo.

the best player from every draft ever was available at pick 1

 

[eaglevision]

the best player from every draft ever was available at pick 1

A lot of peanuts on here that don’t understand this basic concept.

 

[Kangas_11]

Fair play to WCE, ask for overs (2+3) and then see what happens.

I think North walk away though. We have too many holes in our list to sell the farm for Reid. Much better off focusing on trading up our late 1sts to #7 or #10 to pick up Caddy/O'Sullivan, who fill a much bigger need for North right now.

 

[Mich0]

Fair play to WCE, ask for overs (2+3) and then see what happens.

I think North walk away though. We have too many holes in our list to sell the farm for Reid. Much better off focusing on trading up our late 1sts to #7 or #10 to pick up Caddy/O'Sullivan, who fill a much bigger need for North right now.

If Dees get pick 11 (GC) which is seeming likely, would 3 + 16 for 6+11 work.

Let you lads take O,Sullivan and Murphy. Backline sorted.

 

[Ura]

Pick 7 for me. Anything after and you might end up with a player who is abit meh plus if McKercher is any good he will become the most overpaid player in the league

If Dees get pick 11 (GC) which is seeming likely, would 3 + 16 for 6+11 work.

Let you lads take O,Sullivan and Murphy. Backline sorted.

I like that trade for North. Melbourne to make play at Dursma? Or mckertcher?
I have Reid, Mckertcher, Curtin, Dursma, Watson, Saunders, Caddy then Sully… maybe Wilson as slight separated.

 

[Kangas_11]

If Dees get pick 11 (GC) which is seeming likely, would 3 + 16 for 6+11 work.

Let you lads take O,Sullivan and Murphy. Backline sorted.

Probably not the thread to discuss it, but the value doesn't really line up. It's essentially a 5 pick upgrade from 16 >>11 for a 3 pick upgrade from 6 >> 3. If it was just 6 + 11 for 3 with some later pick swaps in Melbournes favour, that would make it a bit more realistic.

Having said that, there's much more incentive for North to trade up rather than down for more picks, considering we have a ton of early-ish picks over the next couple of drafts.

Probably a discussion for the North thread though, unless Melbourne would use it to try and move up to pick 1.

 

[Mich0]

Probably not the thread to discuss it, but the value doesn't really line up. It's essentially a 5 pick upgrade from 16 >>11 for a 3 pick upgrade from 6 >> 3. If it was just 6 + 11 for 3 with some later pick swaps in Melbournes favour, that would make it a bit more realistic.

Having said that, there's much more incentive for North to trade up rather than down for more picks, considering we have a ton of early-ish picks over the next couple of drafts.

Probably a discussion for the North thread though, unless Melbourne would use it to try and move up to pick 1.

You need sellers to trade up. Think they will be running thin soon. But yes agree will pick it up in other thread if Dees get GC pick.

 

[naysayer]

Dan Curtin would be a great get. But Harley Reid would be a better get.

Bigfooty is the only place where you can get this kind of in-depth analysis.

 

[Suma Magic]

How long do you have to go back for pick 1 to be the best player of his draft?

2 and 3 is just much more value imo.

It’s not every year that there is a large perceived gap between pick 1 and 2.

In the last 10 years, there has been a clear no. 1 four times. Of those 4, the number 1 pick was better once, once it was 2 and 3, and the other two years it’s debatable.

2022 - Cadman not a clear number 1

2021 - lots had Daicos as best

2020 - JUH clear no. 1. JUH much better than phillips and thilthorpe.

2019 - Rowell clear no. 1. Anderson and Jackson much better in hindsight.

2018 - Walsh clear no. 1. Hard to say what would be better out of Walsh and luko/Rankine.

2017 - Rayner not standout

2016 - McGrath rated 3 by most

2015 - Weitering clear no. 1. Weitering probably better than Mills and Schache?

2014 - Petracca higher rated than McCartin

 

[chaddy22]

They're all BS.

But equally stupid is the assertion the Dan Curtin is not an attractive player for the Eagles in this draft.

Curtin is attractive but not at pick one.If we are desperate we could pick him at 1 but that isn't gonna happen.
We either get Reid at 1 or if we get 2&3 then it could be whoever we think is second best available and maybe Curtin.
If we were desperate we might take norths 2,15,21 to get Curtin (rated 6) ,Hardeman (rated 17) , and Tholstrup (rated 19).
Thar would be a admission that we are scared of trading best available talent and trading down to just get W.A.. boys and that would be a bad precedent.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Bigfooty is the only place where you can get this kind of in-depth analysis.

I guess West Coast posters are getting a bit tired responding to the same thing ad nauseam.
In fairness to JackOutback his one line response is at a much higher level than the vast majority of professional football commentators and journalists who simply can't get their heads around the fact that Curtin may not be our no. 1 target this off-season.

However, for the sake of certitude I will clarify for you one more time.
West Coast have demonstrably a number of weaknesses in their team, coupled with historically bad injuries for much of the season resulted in very poor results from us this year.

Despite West Coast needing to bolster every line of their team the clear no. 1 deficiency that West Coast have lacked (both in 2022 and 2023) are midfielders who can win the ball at the coalface. Last year we ranked 18th in clearances per game. This has meant that much of the time we have needed to rely upon our rebounding and transition game to generate scoring opportunities and, clearly, we do not have the personnel to do that effectively (we do not have any elite running backs or users by foot). Further, this has meant that it doesn't matter who we put down back as the opposition has so many forward 50 opportunities that they are going to kick a winning score (and typically a massive score) on us. This is again exemplified by the fact that we were 18th in opposition inside 50s per game in 2023.

Hence, our priority must be to inject a damaging clearance midfielder (or two) who will enable us to generate forward thrusts from stoppages, thus relieving pressure on our backs. Furthermore, we lack midfielders who are able to hit the scoreboard. As examples of our midfielders this year Chesser and Hough kicked no goals, Edwards, Yeo and Ginbey kicked 1 goal, Gaff kicked 3 goals, Hewett kicked 4 goals, Sheed kicked 5 goals, Hunt kicked 7 goals and only Kelly kicked 10 goals for the season. This makes for pretty stark reading and reinforces how little scoreboard pressure is generated by our midfielders.

So we also need a midfielder who can consistently kick goals.
Amazingly, this year Harley Reid ticks both boxes as he is both the best clearance player at U18s level as well as an extremely competent forward (and probably the best contested mark of the midfielders available).
Now you could argue that McKercher and Sanders are better pure midfielders and you could argue that Duursma is the better forward/part time mid, but neither of these options are as effective as Reid as a whole. He is on another level when strength in the contest is required, be it at a clearance or in a forward 50 marking contest.

Now none of this should diminish Curtin's offering as he has demonstrated to be a reliable defender (I thought he had the better of his contest with Walter in the U18 champs) and did transition to an effective midfielder. He does, however, fall behind Reid in a number of ways but principally he doesn't make things happen in the midfield the same way that Reid (or McKercher/Sanders for that matter) makes things happen. Reid just creates play but pushing past opponents, accelerating away from clearances or simply by drawing two opponents to him. Perhaps this could be learned, however, given our needs I don't think we should recruit Curtin as a project player.

So, yes, we could use Curtin. And, yes, he is a WA boy.
However, we do not have a history of selecting key backs until late second round and beyond and we have no concerns about selecting an interstate talent, even if there are local talents available to us.

So, outside of Curtin being a WA boy, why should West Coast be looking at him as our primary option to draft this year?
I hope that this analysis has been sufficiently in-depth enough for you.

 

[briztoon]

Correct. Nobody is suggesting that you'll take Curtin at pick one. Nobody is suggesting the Eagles should be afraid to take Reid. Nobody is suggesting that local talent can't leave.

What I'm suggesting it that every club would prefer to invest in local players. The Eagles would prefer it if Harley had grown up in Perth. That's why the value of pick 1 is higher for North and Hawthorn than it is for WC. That's why they will pay through the nose.

Obviously haven’t read the North board.

 

[Farang83150]

I guess West Coast posters are getting a bit tired responding to the same thing ad nauseam.
In fairness to JackOutback his one line response is at a much higher level than the vast majority of professional football commentators and journalists who simply can't get their heads around the fact that Curtin may not be our no. 1 target this off-season.

However, for the sake of certitude I will clarify for you one more time.
West Coast have demonstrably a number of weaknesses in their team, coupled with historically bad injuries for much of the season resulted in very poor results from us this year.

Despite West Coast needing to bolster every line of their team the clear no. 1 deficiency that West Coast have lacked (both in 2022 and 2023) are midfielders who can win the ball at the coalface. Last year we ranked 18th in clearances per game. This has meant that much of the time we have needed to rely upon our rebounding and transition game to generate scoring opportunities and, clearly, we do not have the personnel to do that effectively (we do not have any elite running backs or users by foot). Further, this has meant that it doesn't matter who we put down back as the opposition has so many forward 50 opportunities that they are going to kick a winning score (and typically a massive score) on us. This is again exemplified by the fact that we were 18th in opposition inside 50s per game in 2023.

Hence, our priority must be to inject a damaging clearance midfielder (or two) who will enable us to generate forward thrusts from stoppages, thus relieving pressure on our backs. Furthermore, we lack midfielders who are able to hit the scoreboard. As examples of our midfielders this year Chesser and Hough kicked no goals, Edwards, Yeo and Ginbey kicked 1 goal, Gaff kicked 3 goals, Hewett kicked 4 goals, Sheed kicked 5 goals, Hunt kicked 7 goals and only Kelly kicked 10 goals for the season. This makes for pretty stark reading and reinforces how little scoreboard pressure is generated by our midfielders.

So we also need a midfielder who can consistently kick goals.
Amazingly, this year Harley Reid ticks both boxes as he is both the best clearance player at U18s level as well as an extremely competent forward (and probably the best contested mark of the midfielders available).
Now you could argue that McKercher and Sanders are better pure midfielders and you could argue that Duursma is the better forward/part time mid, but neither of these options are as effective as Reid as a whole. He is on another level when strength in the contest is required, be it at a clearance or in a forward 50 marking contest.

Now none of this should diminish Curtin's offering as he has demonstrated to be a reliable defender (I thought he had the better of his contest with Walter in the U18 champs) and did transition to an effective midfielder. He does, however, fall behind Reid in a number of ways but principally he doesn't make things happen in the midfield the same way that Reid (or McKercher/Sanders for that matter) makes things happen. Reid just creates play but pushing past opponents, accelerating away from clearances or simply by drawing two opponents to him. Perhaps this could be learned, however, given our needs I don't think we should recruit Curtin as a project player.

So, yes, we could use Curtin. And, yes, he is a WA boy.
However, we do not have a history of selecting key backs until late second round and beyond and we have no concerns about selecting an interstate talent, even if there are local talents available to us.

So, outside of Curtin being a WA boy, why should West Coast be looking at him as our primary option to draft this year?
I hope that this analysis has been in-depth enough for you.

Very well written.... unfortunately you know what still going to continually be said by the Nth crew!

 

[briztoon]

You just said that the difference between Reid and McKercher is pick 3, so pot meet kettle.

North are really in a good position, either way. They aren't desperate for Reid. They just want him if a worthwhile deal is possible.

I did.

Because McKercher is not guaranteed to stay beyond Tassie entering the league.

So WC need to maximise any trade they make of pick 1.

Pick 2 draft McKercher.

Pick 3, trade back to Essendon and draft Curtin there, if they really want a WA kid. And pick up an extra draft asset while there at it.

Personally I believe Curtin is being overhyped because of the WA link.

He’s not even the best key defender in the draft. He’s not actually a true key defender.

Much closer to a Ridley type defender, but not as good a mark.

Connor O’Sullivan is a much better key defender.

 

[Kangas_11]

Obviously haven’t read the North board.

Very few North fans think WCE will pick Curtin with pick 1. Every board has posters with overly biased opinions.

The WCE board has multiple posters saying that they wouldn't take 2+3 for 1, which is ridiculous. Kinda stupid to paint an entire fanbase with the same brush as the most insane posters.

 

[kangaanth]

If Dees get pick 11 (GC) which is seeming likely, would 3 + 16 for 6+11 work.

Let you lads take O,Sullivan and Murphy. Backline sorted.

I would do this 1000 times over any of the Reid scenarios posted.

 

[Sphynx]

Spent 15 minutes reading the North board.

Farkin delusional on there.

Posters there thinking they are negotiating from a position of strength.

Believe WC are desperate for Curtin, etc.

Obviously haven’t read the North board.

Is this the point we have to put up with the next month of briztoon reading one or two posts on a club board and passing it off as gospel on here?

I also read suggestions Pick 1 was worth Pick 2,3,15,F1 and a player at one point.

You don't need to come on here every time you read something stupid on a club board, they exist on every teams board.


Imagine the timing, McClure confirmed as a North board bot....by the way, I think he's completely wrong...

 

[Psicosis]

Is this the point we have to put up with the next month of briztoon reading one or two posts on a club board and passing it off as gospel on here?

I also read suggestions Pick 1 was worth Pick 2,3,15,F1 and a player at one point.

You don't need to come on here every time you read something stupid on a club board, they exist on every teams board.


Imagine the timing, McClure confirmed as a North board bot....by the way, I think he's completely wrong...

Straight from Connors