Autopsy Round 7, 2023 : Hawks go down to Dogs

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[FB19]

We won’t finish last it’s clear west coast and norf again are really bad. After a slow start we are competitive and last night we just seemed to run out of juice which led to some bad turnovers and poor defensive efforts. that will change with more games into the squad. Good signs and we have to be some real shot against freo next week.

 

[SammyC]

I reckon we’ll win this week and finish with 5-6 wins for the year. That will give us pick 3-4 plus McCabe which is fine by me.

We are on the right path. Hit the draft again plus a free agent or two in the future when we start to show more immediate promise. Def some more fwd quality required but I reckon the core mids are at the club now.

 

[seysearles]

We’ll get a top 5 pick this year, so what’s your hand-wringing about exactly? I support the rebuild and don’t mind being around the lower end of the ladder to do it - I just don’t want the spoon because it’s slightly pathetic to cheer on finishing last.

I get this but there is also a part of me that thinks we could look like fools in a few years time if Reid fulfils his potential. I don’t watch enough lower grade football to know exactly how good he is or if he’s any different from the hype that was put on players like Swallow, Patton, Boyd, Gibbs, Headland (insert any run of the mill #1 pick name here). I definitely don’t want the spoon for someone like that.

Luke Hodge, Nick Riewoldt, Sam Walsh on the other hand I think I would spoon for any of them.

Can anyone with a better grip of recruiting and the under age system testify if it’s just the standard fanfare or the kid is a genuine unicorn? Who else has had that sort of hype pre-getting drafted as a comparison?

 

[SammyC]

Reid might be a generational player but bont, dusty, neale, cripps, jezza, etc weren’t the number 1 pick and are pretty handy. I’m happy to win what we win and see how we go.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I get this but there is also a part of me that thinks we could look like fools in a few years time if Reid fulfils his potential. I don’t watch enough lower grade football to know exactly how good he is or if he’s any different from the hype that was put on players like Swallow, Patton, Boyd, Gibbs, Headland (insert any run of the mill #1 pick name here). I definitely don’t want the spoon for someone like that.

Luke Hodge, Nick Riewoldt, Sam Walsh on the other hand I think I would spoon for any of them.

Can anyone with a better grip of recruiting and the under age system testify if it’s just the standard fanfare or the kid is a genuine unicorn? Who else has had that sort of hype pre-getting drafted as a comparison?

Jaeger was touted as the next big thing when Gold Coast got him in the mini-draft - then he won the Rising Star and the expectations were mental. Two knees later and we all know what happened. This is why I’d prefer a winning culture over finishing last for a gamble on a player who mightn’t live up to the potential.

 

[HedgeFund]

I feel for Sicily, that's Cameron and now Naughton that have been best on against him this year. Even Tex beat him last week.

To be fair, Sicily has played on all three for only the majority of each game, not the entirety.

There has been handovers, shifting up / down, etc. - basically he and Frost together have been responsible for the best opposition key forward across the game.

 

[HedgeFund]

Jaeger was touted as the next big thing when Gold Coast got him in the mini-draft - then he won the Rising Star and the expectations were mental. Two knees later and we all know what happened. This is why I’d prefer a winning culture over finishing last for a gamble on a player who mightn’t live up to the potential.

Same with Walsh, then Rowell, it happens almost every year.

Yep - they’re excellent players, but neither are the best player at their club (yet) and may never be.

Culture is key, not pinning your hopes an a very talented 18 year old.

 

[grumbleguts]

Funny but VFL umpiring standards seem higher

Not after today's game. (and I know you acknowledged this in the BH thread.)

That non advantage call took the wind out of Box Hill's sails and the umpires stood around like a rabble not knowing what the hell was going on.

 

[grumbleguts]

The number 33 prior, who you speak off, stuck his tackles, it is why he became the master. Brocky just needs to add this to his repertoire. Becoming serious about his footy (as he now is) is a big step in the right direction.

I remain very confident he has the ability to become a very good player, I hope he will really benefit from the 50 game milestone. Time will tell.

I didn't know Matthew Walker was seen as a tackling guru. Interesting.

 

[Mojo]

Reid might be a generational player but bont, dusty, neale, cripps, jezza, etc weren’t the number 1 pick and are pretty handy. I’m happy to win what we win and see how we go.

Been thinking about this, and Reid might be a generational player but I don't think the rest of the draft crop are demonstrating their ability to chase him down just atm. Hopefully in several months time, these guys have developed to a point where there's contention for the remainder of the top 10 prospects.

 

[Topiary]

I didn't know Matthew Walker was seen as a tackling guru. Interesting.

Grumble, you know who I am talking about !

 

[tl92]

Been thinking about this, and Reid might be a generational player but I don't think the rest of the draft crop are demonstrating their ability to chase him down just atm. Hopefully in several months time, these guys have developed to a point where there's contention for the remainder of the top 10 prospects.

I think once the championships start a few more players will bob up in the top 5 range that will get people excited. At the moment it feels like Reid and Watson or bust but I think that’s more down to exposure at this stage, as not many have the chance to watch the u18s games. Not suggesting Reid won’t be a clear stand out though, just that other exciting prospects will emerge.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

To be fair, Sicily has played on all three for only the majority of each game, not the entirety.

There has been handovers, shifting up / down, etc. - basically he and Frost together have been responsible for the best opposition key forward across the game.

Literally, bloke says Tex killed him when he didn't even play on him for most of the game HAHA

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Do people watch the post game press conference each week?

I’m interested to know, because it seems that lots of people don’t, which I find a bit dumbfounding.

 

[Rocket72]

Do people watch the post game press conference each week?

I’m interested to know, because it seems that lots of people don’t, which I find a bit dumbfounding.

I always watch it, just not necessarily straight after the game.

 

[extractasam]

I’ve been looking through Oppo boards last couple of weeks after our last 3 losses and the general consensus has been the same every week.

“Wins a win”
“Sometimes you have to win ugly”

We’ve turned a bit of a corner in terms of being quite hard to play against, all 3 teams have played brands of footy they really never set up to play. The offensive aspect looks a while off but the first half yesterday I felt like I could finally sort of see what’s being built for the first time.

The midfield turnaround this year has been chefs kiss and it’s been a lot more enjoyable to watch than the last couple of years. They’re gonna win some games of footy these boys

 

[extractasam]

Do people watch the post game press conference each week?

I’m interested to know, because it seems that lots of people don’t, which I find a bit dumbfounding.

Yeah routinely for me - it’s amazing how much more you realise journos don’t even watch them themselves

 

[Rocket72]

Literally, bloke says Tex killed him when he didn't even play on him for most of the game HAHA

Frosty played on Tex as much as a defender plays on a forward these days. I always find it amusing when players who play on each other each score votes, but that week was rediculous with even the coaches awarding votes to players who played on each other, almost exclusively:

7 Taylor Walker (ADEL)
6 Rory Laird (ADEL)
5 Rory Sloane (ADEL)
5 Conor Nash (HAW)
3 Jai Newcombe (HAW)
2 James Sicily (HAW)
2 Sam Frost (HAW)

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I’ve been looking through Oppo boards last couple of weeks after our last 3 losses and the general consensus has been the same every week.

“Wins a win”
“Sometimes you have to win ugly”

We’ve turned a bit of a corner in terms of being quite hard to play against, all 3 teams have played brands of footy they really never set up to play. The offensive aspect looks a while off but the first half yesterday I felt like I could finally sort of see what’s being built for the first time.

The midfield turnaround this year has been chefs kiss and it’s been a lot more enjoyable to watch than the last couple of years. They’re gonna win some games of footy these boys

Yeah, I’m fully on board with the “these young kids need 20-40 games together” mantra that Rob McCartney ran with over summer when interviewed on SEN and other media outlets, because I’ve seen what we’ve been able to do in the middle in under 10 games when every man and their dog said we’d get wiped off the park in the midfield every week.

 

[Topiary]

I’ve been looking through Oppo boards last couple of weeks after our last 3 losses and the general consensus has been the same every week.

“Wins a win”
“Sometimes you have to win ugly”

We’ve turned a bit of a corner in terms of being quite hard to play against, all 3 teams have played brands of footy they really never set up to play. The offensive aspect looks a while off but the first half yesterday I felt like I could finally sort of see what’s being built for the first time.

The midfield turnaround this year has been chefs kiss and it’s been a lot more enjoyable to watch than the last couple of years. They’re gonna win some games of footy these boys

As long as we maintain effort.

 

[Rocket72]

Looks like we will finish in the bottom 3, which is around where I thought we'd finish. What I've been surprised by is how promising our list looks already. I reckon we might only need one more strong draft to play finals again, not the two or three I thought...

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Frosty played on Tex as much as a defender plays on a forward these days. I always find it amusing when players who play on each other each score votes, but that week was rediculous with even the coaches awarding votes to players who played on each other, almost exclusively:

7 Taylor Walker (ADEL)
6 Rory Laird (ADEL)
5 Rory Sloane (ADEL)
5 Conor Nash (HAW)
3 Jai Newcombe (HAW)
2 James Sicily (HAW)
2 Sam Frost (HAW)

Frosty had a great game offensively, but he was out of position a fair few times playing on Tex.

Sicily's year defensively has been better than 2022.

It's just that our defensive 50 has been worse as a unit.

His defensive loss % and 1on1s for 2022 were:
4 1on1s per game (above average)
25.8 contested defensive loss % (average)

But as we know he was so good offensively in every facet and the fact is that he played KPD every single week, and it was his first time doing it.

Offensively:
24 disposals, 19 kicks at 80%
2 inside 50s, 8 rebound 50s
7 contested, 8.5 intercepts
3 score involvements (good for a defender)
6.6 spoils
8.6 marks (1.5 contested) (2.6 intercept marks)
600 metres gained

In 2023 his defensive game has improved a lot, his averages are:
3 1on1s per game (1 less than last year)
14.3 contested defensive loss % (elite)

Offensively:
24 disposals, 17 kicks at 79%
2 inside 50s, 7.6 rebound 50s
7 contested, 7.7 intercepts
0.3 goals (0.7 shots on goal per game)
4 score involvements (really good)
9.6 marks (1.4 contested) (2.7 intercept marks)
465 metres gained

The offensive drop-off is that he hasn't been backing himself in as much, and he has looked a little too calm at times which has caused turnovers which haven't been needed, although I felt like this has had a lot to do with our forward structure and Lewis.

Against the Dogs:
26 disposals, 18 kicks at 85%
2 inside 50s, 10 rebound 50s
7 contested, 8 intercepts
1 goal, 6 score involvements
6 marks (1 contested)
9 spoils
550 metres gained (this is the big thing, backing himself in and with our structure i felt helped massively.)

Defensively he had 4 1on1 contests (most on the ground double the next person) and didn't lose a single one.
4 1on1s and 0%.

He's still elite, and it shows how high his standards are that people have really "Trashed" him as much as they have.

 

[tommyk72]

Frosty had a great game offensively, but he was out of position a fair few times playing on Tex.

Sicily's year defensively has been better than 2022.

It's just that our defensive 50 has been worse as a unit.

His defensive loss % and 1on1s for 2022 were:
4 1on1s per game (above average)
25.8 contested defensive loss % (average)

But as we know he was so good offensively in every facet and the fact is that he played KPD every single week, and it was his first time doing it.

Offensively:
24 disposals, 19 kicks at 80%
2 inside 50s, 8 rebound 50s
7 contested, 8.5 intercepts
3 score involvements (good for a defender)
6.6 spoils
8.6 marks (1.5 contested) (2.6 intercept marks)
600 metres gained

In 2023 his defensive game has improved a lot, his averages are:
3 1on1s per game (1 less than last year)
14.3 contested defensive loss % (elite)

Offensively:
24 disposals, 17 kicks at 79%
2 inside 50s, 7.6 rebound 50s
7 contested, 7.7 intercepts
0.3 goals (0.7 shots on goal per game)
4 score involvements (really good)
9.6 marks (1.4 contested) (2.7 intercept marks)
465 metres gained

The offensive drop-off is that he hasn't been backing himself in as much, and he has looked a little too calm at times which has caused turnovers which haven't been needed, although I felt like this has had a lot to do with our forward structure and Lewis.

Against the Dogs:
26 disposals, 18 kicks at 85%
2 inside 50s, 10 rebound 50s
7 contested, 8 intercepts
1 goal, 6 score involvements
6 marks (1 contested)
9 spoils
550 metres gained (this is the big thing, backing himself in and with our structure i felt helped massively.)

Defensively he had 4 1on1 contests (most on the ground double the next person) and didn't lose a single one.
4 1on1s and 0%.

He's still elite, and it shows how high his standards are that people have really "Trashed" him as much as they have.

Interesting. Thanks for sharing the stats. My ‘eye test’ had me thinking he was playing 10-15% worse than last year. Clearly not the case.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Interesting. Thanks for sharing the stats. My ‘eye test’ had me thinking he was playing 10-15% worse than last year. Clearly not the case.

Stats aren't always the 100% full story, so your eyes aren't lying, i have noticed that he is handballing more (ever so slightly as shown by the stats) and that's where he gets into his most trouble, because our other defenders are just not as cool as he is, and his metres gained are down by a fair way (150 metres gained is alot) and that shows aswell, but i do think people go over the top with his "fall off" or that he "hasn't been a good captain" and nitpick moments (even if they aren't there).

And people don't look at the stats where Sicily is actually directly playing on someone or responsible for a goal, they just look at the best key forward and blame it on him, which is atrocious considering Frost takes them most weeks and when Sicily goes to them he does a ******* good job, because he is an elite defender and can defend all sizes. AFL footy nowadays relies on alot of turnover and player switching during games, it's uncommon and very rare to find someone who follows someone around.

 

[H00t]

Stats aren't always the 100% full story, so your eyes aren't lying, i have noticed that he is handballing more (ever so slightly as shown by the stats) and that's where he gets into his most trouble, because our other defenders are just not as cool as he is, and his metres gained are down by a fair way (150 metres gained is alot) and that shows aswell, but i do think people go over the top with his "fall off" or that he "hasn't been a good captain" and nitpick moments (even if they aren't there).

And people don't look at the stats where Sicily is actually directly playing on someone or responsible for a goal, they just look at the best key forward and blame it on him, which is atrocious considering Frost takes them most weeks and when Sicily goes to them he does a ******* good job, because he is an elite defender and can defend all sizes. AFL footy nowadays relies on alot of turnover and player switching during games, it's uncommon and very rare to find someone who follows someone around.

I think the two things for mine where he has not really been up to his usual for mine is using his kicking to open the game up for us. He’s an absolute elite kick but he has hardly used it this year instead chipping the ball around.

I also feel his intercept marking is down. Partially because he’s played a more lockdown role out of necessity.

But those are his two biggest strengths and he hasn’t quite been able to utilise them this year.

Not that he’s been poor just not quite to his usual standard.