That's because most footy pundits don't have a clue. Adelaide were favourites this year; yet it was obvious to anyone with with any footy nous that Richmond would win easily. Interstate teams get way too much advantage during the season (and finals) and then, lo and behold, come GHF day it is revealed that they're not nearly as good as they appeared on home soil.
So what you are saying is Richmond got lucky playing a dud interstate team? Now if only they could get that lucky 3 years in a row instead of once every 30 years, they'd be less of a laughing stock.