Prediction Walking the tightrope - The Run Home

[Kirkswan]

If JPK is out for several weeks along with numerous other players getting banged up this could all end very quickly

Well, you're just a little ray of sunshine this morning!

If JPK is out for even a week, then I would think that Dawson will get his chance. Lets hope he does a Melican and grabs it with both hands... If either Sinkers or Naismith is out, then Tippett will be in with a few weeks in the Reserves under his belt. If Lloyd is out, then I'll cry.... If Rohan is out then Robinson stays, and will better for the run.

But even if all of these players are out, I won't be writing us off this year (or any other for that matter!) until it is mathematically impossible for us to make it.

 

[PVF]

Alright here is the top 4 scenario after doing the ladder predictor.

Top 4
- Have to win out but need two teams out of Giants, Tigers and Port to lose two games on the run home. They play as follows:

Giants - Melbourne (H), Bulldogs (A), West Coast (H), Geelong (A)
Tigers - Hawks (H), Geelong (A), Fremantle (A), St.Kilda (H)
Power - Adelaide (A), Collingwood (H), Bulldogs (A), Gold Coast (H)

So still possible.

 

[Kirkswan]

Alright here is the top 4 scenario after doing the ladder predictor.

Top 4
- Have to win out but need two teams out of Giants, Tigers and Port to lose two games on the run home. They play as follows:

Giants - Melbourne (H), Bulldogs (A), West Coast (H), Geelong (A)
Tigers - Hawks (H), Geelong (A), Fremantle (A), St.Kilda (H)
Power - Adelaide (A), Collingwood (H), Bulldogs (A), Gold Coast (H)

So still possible.

Sounds good, but... Giants have their two hardest games in the last two weeks and should have a number of their injured players back by then. So I'm thinking we need them to lose their both their away games which seems unlikely really. Tigers could easily lose to Hawks and Geelong, or failing that to Geelong and St Kilda. Power is where I think this scenario will fall over... unless they completely lose the plot, I can only see them losing to Adelaide.

It would be excellent if it came off, but I am hoping for 5th or 6th and home final...

 

[mtooler]

Ran the predictor after last round and if we lose to crows and geelong we're finishing 7th which is fine. No pressure from there. We'll play saints, then probably gws in sydney, then crows away and cats in GF.

 

[plastic_swan]

Some pretty handy results with Melbourne and StKilda losing. To drop our game but stay in 6th is a good result for the weekend (well, as good as possible with losing!)

The two home matches are of course must-wins, and then 1 from 2 on the road does the trick.

 

[Neverwas]

Resting Hanners if JPK is out is a joke right? Next youll suggest we just call the Cats and say "we're not coming next weekend because Josh is out and we cant win so we're not bothering

Not such a silly idea if you really watched how slowly Hanners was running the other night. If we are already going to be missing JPK and Naismith we can probably give a good show with 22 fit players rather than about 16, regardles of whether Hanners is playing.We might them win the last 3 without giving away much %..

 

[mikey_san]

Resting Hanners if JPK is out is a joke right? Next youll suggest we just call the Cats and say "we're not coming next weekend because Josh is out and we cant win so we're not bothering

Swing the NEAFL team into action this week. The lot of them.
I reckon Dawson in for Kennedy and Ronke in for Hanners will still see us do ok. though it would decimate my Supercoach plans for next year for sure.

What use is Hanners at the moment? They guy can hardly make it past a jog. A total gun when fit - we need him firing more than we need to claim 5th spot rather than 7th. Give him a rest now, and another the week before finals and he might actually be ready to win us a flag.

 

[Kirkswan]

Lot of games that will impact our ladder position this weekend...

Geelong v Sydney - An absolute must win
GWS v Melbourne - I think we need GWS to get up to give us a one game buffer on Melbourne
Essendon v Carlton - Can't see any reason Essendon don't win
Lions v Bulldogs - Bulldogs should win, but would be better for us if they would lose!
St Kilda v West Coast - St Kilda at home and playing for their season, I think they might get up
Richmond v Hawthorn - Let's hope Richmond crush them
Adelaide v Port - Adelaide should win I think

I'm absolutely hopeless at tipping, but this is how I think we 'need/want' it to play out. Anyone think different scenarios would be better for us?

 

[DST]

Unfortunately the loss to the Hawks put us back into the bucket of needing other results to go our way if we drop the games to Cats and Crows away.

We might be very unlucky and miss the 8 while winning 12 games and having a decent %.

There are two crucial games coming up, we need the Crows to beat Essendon so they don't go 4 and zero and if that doesn't happen then we will need the Dogs to lose two of their remaining games (Port and GWS the hopes) to stay in front of them and inside the 8.

I am not seeing Eagles, Saints or Hawthorn getting past us and equally we are not likely to get in front of either the Demons or Power if we only win two games from here/

Of course we can take the pressure off and win this week and we are almost a shoe in

 

[dopesayo]

The way I'm looking at things:

Win 1/4 - Miss finals
Win 2/4 - May miss finals, may sneak in 7th/8th
Win 3/4 - Confirmed finals, probably finish 5th/6th with a home final
Win 4/4 - Confirmed 5th/6th, small chance of sneaking in 4th for double chance

 

[scaryness]

Adelaide the only test left.

Fremantle and Carlton rubbish.

 

[caesar88]

Ideal place would be to finish 4th. I love us away from home, we have this tenacity from the opening bounce that can go missing on the SCG. We also aren't really scared of any ground in the comp. We love Etihad, Simmonds and Domain. We've had plenty of wins at the MCG and Etihad. At least we'd be able to go into a QF throwing caution to the wind, and if we lose, still have a home semi final.

But it's looking more likely that we'll end up 5th or 6th, which makes me incredibly nervous because we'll probably end up facing a side like Melbourne or Essendon, full of youth who will play with nothing to lose.

 

[JPK all day]

Ideal place would be to finish 4th. I love us away from home, we have this tenacity from the opening bounce that can go missing on the SCG. We also aren't really scared of any ground in the comp. We love Etihad, Simmonds and Domain. We've had plenty of wins at the MCG and Etihad. At least we'd be able to go into a QF throwing caution to the wind, and if we lose, still have a home semi final.

But it's looking more likely that we'll end up 5th or 6th, which makes me incredibly nervous because we'll probably end up facing a side like Melbourne or Essendon, full of youth who will play with nothing to lose.

"Full of youth who will play with nothing to lose".... Sounds like our lads the last couple of months.

I can't believe that we are actually likely to make finals at this point... I'm just happy to see us winning again.. It's all icing for me now, but that cherry on top is within reach... Unbelievable!

 

[caesar88]

"Full of youth who will play with nothing to lose".... Sounds like our lads the last couple of months.

I can't believe that we are actually likely to make finals at this point... I'm just happy to see us winning again.. It's all icing for me now, but that cherry on top is within reach... Unbelievable!

Yep agree whole-heartedly. It feels like this has been a pretty average year for us. We started 0-6. We'll probably only have one All Australian (Buddy). Only a small handful of our players have been consistently good across the whole season. But geez if this is what an average year looks like (finishing between 5th and 8th and still contending for the flag), then I will happily take it. We've managed to salvage a season that I was convinced was dead. You don't win a flag every year, so if we don't win it this year at least we've stamped season 2017 with a statement.. we weren't going to give up on a season and unravel into a basket case side (a la Freo in 2016), but we will be competitive all the way.

It actually fills me with enormous hope for 2018. This lot of players will never allow themselves to handicap their season so early ever again. They'll come out breathing fire at the start of next year. Our youngsters we've blooded (Hayward, Newman, Melican, Florent) will be all the better after another season. Our senior guns who have had down years (Sir Dane, Hanners, Buddy, Parker etc) will be professional enough and elite enough to reproduce their best form again. Exciting times ahead in the near and distant future....

 

[JPK all day]

Wish I could like that post twice. Well said.

 

[JZ_Skitzo]

Seriously one of the most enjoyable seasons I can remember for a while. We have been spoilt as a fan base for quite some time. But this year it's felt like we've all been on this journey with the team together.

 

[RUNVS]

Seriously one of the most enjoyable seasons I can remember for a while. We have been spoilt as a fan base for quite some time. But this year it's felt like we've all been on this journey with the team together.

It really does, though I think the players had more faith than I did because at 0-6 I was already looking at the top 5 draft prospects for 2017 in an effort to make myself feel a little better.

Still, since the about 30% through the season every single week has been a "must win" or very close to it. There are no games we can just drop and that actually makes the season even more exciting as every win is vital.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

It really does, though I think the players had more faith than I did because at 0-6 I was already looking at the top 5 draft prospects for 2017 in an effort to make myself feel a little better.

Still, since the about 30% through the season every single week has been a "must win" or very close to it. There are no games we can just drop and that actually makes the season even more exciting as every win is vital.

That would of been the easy thing to do after 0-6 but there was some good benefit it allowed us to expose Newman, Melican, Hayward early regardless if they were ready or not due to injuries and form.

 

[plastic_swan]

Without sounding arrogant I think with our % it is hard to miss the eight now. If we don't win 1 of our remaining three we don't deserve to be there, I am pretty comfortable we will get the 2 at home - and see what happens in Adelaide.

I do think the top 4 is gone though. We're a game and a half behind with three to play. Geelong have a tough run but I think 5th is our best bet. 5th or 6th is splitting hairs a bit, not sure it matters. Would prefer to avoid an elimination final vs WB, given their record at the SCG.

It was a pretty favourable weekend for us. Melbourne losing, StK winning (very poor %) and PA getting hammered has helped us a lot.

 

[GotTheGoodes]

Resting Hanners if JPK is out is a joke right? Next youll suggest we just call the Cats and say "we're not coming next weekend because Josh is out and we cant win so we're not bothering

I keep reading your posts thinking "I can't remember saying that" then realising it was you not me...

I think we need to have an avatar bet this week. Margin on the Freo game. Winner chooses to keep/change avatar....

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Without sounding arrogant I think with our % it is hard to miss the eight now. If we don't win 1 of our remaining three we don't deserve to be there, I am pretty comfortable we will get the 2 at home - and see what happens in Adelaide.

I do think the top 4 is gone though. We're a game and a half behind with three to play. Geelong have a tough run but I think 5th is our best bet. 5th or 6th is splitting hairs a bit, not sure it matters. Would prefer to avoid an elimination final vs WB, given their record at the SCG.

It was a pretty favourable weekend for us. Melbourne losing, StK winning (very poor %) and PA getting hammered has helped us a lot.

Hopefully GWS belt the Bulldogs this week.

Win all 3 and Geelong lose every one, we are a chance. I recon that's our best bet for the top 4. Then again Port have a sitter of a draw with a higher percentage.

 

[scaryness]

Without sounding arrogant I think with our % it is hard to miss the eight now. If we don't win 1 of our remaining three we don't deserve to be there, I am pretty comfortable we will get the 2 at home - and see what happens in Adelaide.

I do think the top 4 is gone though. We're a game and a half behind with three to play. Geelong have a tough run but I think 5th is our best bet. 5th or 6th is splitting hairs a bit, not sure it matters. Would prefer to avoid an elimination final vs WB, given their record at the SCG.

It was a pretty favourable weekend for us. Melbourne losing, StK winning (very poor %) and PA getting hammered has helped us a lot.

I want to avoid Essendon

 

[plastic_swan]

I want to avoid Essendon

Yeah probably the most dangerous team of the potential opponents.

 

[sataris]

Adelaide the only test left.

Fremantle and Carlton rubbish.

Carlton have already smashed us this year.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I want to avoid Essendon

Tough run in for Essendon as they play Adelaide this week. I recon the teams around the 8 are going to have to win all 3. They all have relatively easy runs in.