Preview Wally casts an eye over the field

[Hard Ball Get]

In: Roughead, T. Mitchell, O'mera

Out: S.Mitchell, Lewis, Hill

If O'Mera gets on the park and Roughy is fit and well, there's potential improvement there.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

In: Roughead, T. Mitchell, O'mera

Out: S.Mitchell, Lewis, Hill

If O'Mera gets on the park and Roughy is fit and well, there's potential improvement there.

Definite potential, the concern is the amount of time two of those guys have had out of the game and whether they will take time to adjust...last year they pinched 3 games early in the season they really should have lost. If it takes them a while to adjust this season i cant see them making top 4

 

[Hard Ball Get]

Definite potential, the concern is the amount of time two of those guys have had out of the game and whether they will take time to adjust...last year they pinched 3 games early in the season they really should have lost. If it takes them a while to adjust this season i cant see them making top 4

Yeah pretty much improvement with an IF. O'Mera will probably have to modify his game to be more inside if he loses his power and speed. He's got inside game, but could need a Judd like transition.

 

[Yojimbo]

Yeah pretty much improvement with an IF. O'Mera will probably have to modify his game to be more inside if he loses his power and speed. He's got inside game, but could need a Judd like transition.

Are you suggesting O'MEARA should shave his head and get a
job with Visy, is that a Judd like transition ?

 

[LittleG]

Yeah pretty much improvement with an IF. O'Mera will probably have to modify his game to be more inside if he loses his power and speed. He's got inside game, but could need a Judd like transition.

As a sufferer of knee tendinitis I don't expect jom to play more than 10 games per year. It is so easy to get bumped from the side and completely lose any hope of changing direction. Glad that we didn't spend the earth to get him.
IF he never got injured he is a GAJ level performer. That IF is not big enough.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Cats

2016 Record: 18/6

Off Rating: 92.42 (3rd)

Incredible record at home with 114.62ppg (3rd in comp). Strong against Top 4 competition (87.25ppg) and Interstate (97.6ppg). Only area of weakness seems to be their performance at the M.C.G where they ranked 10th (82.5ppg). Ranked 1st in both MI50 and CM with Tom Hawkins Top 3 in the comp in both these categories. Ranked 4th at converting I50’s into MI50 (25.68%).

Lose Kersten and Caddy who were 5th and 6th on their Goalkicking table as well as Bartel who kicked 11 and was Top 5 for Inside 50’s. Likely to go backwards offensively.

Def Rating: 77.08 (2nd)

Kardinia Park was a fortress where they conceded just 66ppg (3rd). One of only 2 sides to hold Top 8 teams to under 80ppg. Number One ranked team Interstate with 70ppg. Will be interesting to see how they cope without the rock that was Corey Enright.

Midfield:

Boast arguably the best one-two punch in the comp with Danger and Selwood. Rank 2nd in CP DPG (+14.04) with both Danger and Selwood Top 10 in this category. Rank 4th for Clearance DPG (+2.25) once again Selwood and Danger both Top 10. Ranked number One for I50 DPG (+12.13) Danger ranked 1st (194…a full 66 points ahead of 2nd!) and Selwood 5th (117).

Lack depth as it is and have now lost Bartel and Caddy (Both Top 10 ball winners @ Geelong). God help them if one of the gun two breaks down.

What Lies Ahead:

Have to wait 9 weeks before their first game at Kardinia against the reigning premiers (never gets old!). Have a relatively easy draw to start the year so they won’t really be tested until the second half of the season. Have lost some key players and only really added Tuohy from Carlton. Will be looking for their second tier players to step up but are the likes of Duncan, Guthrie, Blicavs and co already all they are ever going to be? Only had 3 players in the Prelim under 23 years of age so there doesn’t appear to be the quality of youth knocking the doors down. Despite having a Premiership under his belt, Chris Scott is a mediocre coach for mine. He doesn’t seem to have many tricks up his sleeve and relies on too few to do too much. Big year for the Catters.

Early Season Test:

As I said earlier, a relatively soft draw first up. Perhaps Round 1 v Fremantle @ Subiaco. If the Dockers can get back to some 2012-2015 form it could be a big test for them on the road.

Prediction:

I can see them slipping out of the Top 4…just not too far. Likely to sit in the 5-7 range.

 

[Bulldog Joe]

Cats

2016 Record: 18/6

Off Rating: 92.42 (3rd)

Incredible record at home with 114.62ppg (3rd in comp). Strong against Top 4 competition (87.25ppg) and Interstate (97.6ppg). Only area of weakness seems to be their performance at the M.C.G where they ranked 10th (82.5ppg). Ranked 1st in both MI50 and CM with Tom Hawkins Top 3 in the comp in both these categories. Ranked 4th at converting I50’s into MI50 (25.68%).

Lose Kersten and Caddy who were 5th and 6th on their Goalkicking table as well as Bartel who kicked 11 and was Top 5 for Inside 50’s. Likely to go backwards offensively.

Def Rating: 77.08 (2nd)

Kardinia Park was a fortress where they conceded just 66ppg (3rd). One of only 2 sides to hold Top 8 teams to under 80ppg. Number One ranked team Interstate with 70ppg. Will be interesting to see how they cope without the rock that was Corey Enright.

Midfield:

Boast arguably the best one-two punch in the comp with Danger and Selwood. Rank 2nd in CP DPG (+14.04) with both Danger and Selwood Top 10 in this category. Rank 4th for Clearance DPG (+2.25) once again Selwood and Danger both Top 10. Ranked number One for I50 DPG (+12.13) Danger ranked 1st (194…a full 66 points ahead of 2nd!) and Selwood 5th (117).

Lack depth as it is and have now lost Bartel and Caddy (Both Top 10 ball winners @ Geelong). God help them if one of the gun two breaks down.

What Lies Ahead:

Have to wait 9 weeks before their first game at Kardinia against the reigning premiers (never gets old!). Have a relatively easy draw to start the year so they won’t really be tested until the second half of the season. Have lost some key players and only really added Tuohy from Carlton. Will be looking for their second tier players to step up but are the likes of Duncan, Guthrie, Blicavs and co already all they are ever going to be? Only had 3 players in the Prelim under 23 years of age so there doesn’t appear to be the quality of youth knocking the doors down. Despite having a Premiership under his belt, Chris Scott is a mediocre coach for mine. He doesn’t seem to have many tricks up his sleeve and relies on too few to do too much. Big year for the Catters.

Early Season Test:

As I said earlier, a relatively soft draw first up. Perhaps Round 1 v Fremantle @ Subiaco. If the Dockers can get back to some 2012-2015 form it could be a big test for them on the road.

Prediction:

I can see them slipping out of the Top 4…just not too far. Likely to sit in the 5-7 range.

Well done again Wally.
Interesting point that they don't get a game at Geelong until Round 9.
If they can't perform better away from the Cattery their season may be shot before we play them.

They certainly cannot afford any injuries to the top 3 to 5 players. Their depth is poor and I see them missing finals.

 

[FROGGR]

Another great write up Wally...

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Well done again Wally.
Interesting point that they don't get a game at Geelong until Round 9.
If they can't perform better away from the Cattery their season may be shot before we play them.

They certainly cannot afford any injuries to the top 3 to 5 players. Their depth is poor and I see them missing finals.

Its the game i want to see us win the most. They've had the wood on us for far too long and i really want to see that smug look wiped from Scotts face!

 

[Yojimbo]

Excellent analysis Wally. Did you know of their 6 losses for
the year 3 of them came against bottom sides or teams
not in the top eight, the most of any side in the top eight.
Their Clanger kings were Patrick Dangerfield- 92 and Joel
Selwood- 86 which is interesting given all the adulation.

In the Preliminary Final they lost to Sydney by 37 points
Geelong had a staggering 72 inside 50's for 8 goals now
that is not efficient. In the Round 16 loss to Sydney at
the cattery by 38 points Geelong had 52 inside 50's
for 9 goals. Their season averages were 57 inside 50's
for 14.4 goals and 12.9 Behinds. In the two games
versus Sydney their combined score was 17 Goals and
14 Behinds, interesting.

 

[Super Hans]

I think Hawks can make top four now that Roughead is back. I rate him as the best key forward in the comp behind Buddy.

I never rated Lewis, Mitchell is a massive upgrade there IMO. Sam Mitchell is obviously the big one.

Rioli - Roughead - Gunston
Breust - Vickery - Pop

That's the best forward line in the comp and by a fair way I reckon.

 

[Hard Ball Get]

I think Hawks can make top four now that Roughead is back. I rate him as the best key forward in the comp behind Buddy.

I never rated Lewis, Mitchell is a massive upgrade there IMO. Sam Mitchell is obviously the big one.

Rioli - Roughead - Gunston
Breust - Vickery - Pop

That's the best forward line in the comp and by a fair way I reckon.

You think? Vickery has massive question marks and was in and out of the side at Richmond, Roughy is a superstar, but coming off a year off and we don't know how he will come back, they lack pace up the field so Rioli will spend a fair chunk further and way from goals and Puopolo doesn't have the record to match his reputation. Breust is a front runner, you need them, but how will he handle it when things don't go well, is a big question.

I still think they will be okay, and still think it's a good forward line, but I dont think it's anywhere near easily the best in the heart comp.

 

[Super Hans]

You think? Vickery has massive question marks and was in and out of the side at Richmond, Roughy is a superstar, but coming off a year off and we don't know how he will come back, they lack pace up the field so Rioli will spend a fair chunk further and way from goals and Puopolo doesn't have the record to match his reputation. Breust is a front runner, you need them, but how will he handle it when things don't go well, is a big question.

I still think they will be okay, and still think it's a good forward line, but I dont think it's anywhere near easily the best in the heart comp.

Vickery sucks. I'm not gonna defend that.

I rate Roughead as the second best key forward in the comp. That's presuming he comes back close to his best
I rate Rioli as the best small forward in the comp.
I rate Gunston as the best medium forward in the comp.
I think Breust is a gun and is always good for 40 goals a year.
Puopolo offers pressure and tackling, which is more than enough for the #5 in your forwardline.

I reckon they're the clear #1. Adelaide's is the one that always gets mentioned, but I'd take the Hawks.

Actually, on paper I'd probably rate GWS #1.

Greene - Cameron - Deledio
Smith/Johnson - Lobb - Patton

But they're the best two by a fair way IMO.

 

[Hard Ball Get]

Vickery sucks. I'm not gonna defend that.

I rate Roughead as the second best key forward in the comp. That's presuming he comes back close to his best
I rate Rioli as the best small forward in the comp.
I rate Gunston as the best medium forward in the comp.
I think Breust is a gun and is always good for 40 goals a year.
Puopolo offers pressure and tackling, which is more than enough for the #5 in your forwardline.

I reckon they're the clear #1. Adelaide's is the one that always gets mentioned, but I'd take the Hawks.

Actually, on paper I'd probably rate GWS #1.

Greene - Cameron - Deledio
Smith/Johnson - Lobb - Patton

But they're the best two by a fair way IMO.

If they all play stay at home it's good, I still don't think the best, but good. The issue is they won't style at home though. Cyril will play up the ground, Roughy will do some ruck work and plays as on on baller from time to time, Vickery will ruck at times too.

Who goes forward when this happens? Cyril is the main one, he will be on ball and on a wing a lot this year.

As I said, I'm not sold on Breust if things aren't going well and the more Hawthorn struggle the more he will struggle. I also completely disagree with saying "pressure and tackling is more than enough for a number 5 in your forward line." Park footy, yeah... AFL, no.

As you mentioned at the end GWS have a strong line, with numerous others to go through. Depth is just as important to a forward line as it is to a midfield.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Crows

2016 Record: 17/7

Off Rating: 98.47 (1st)

Rank 1st in nearly every KPI…Home (115.69ppg), v Top 8 Teams (96.66ppg), Interstate (109.27ppg), at the M.C.G (112ppg), against Bottom 10 teams (128.83ppg) and Converting I50 into SS (48.02%). Have four Top 20 Goalkickers in Betts, Walker, Jenkins and Lynch with Betts, Walker and Jenkins also all ranked in the Top 15 for MI50. The best forward line in the business.

Def Rating: 96.39 (9th)

Have a good defence against the bottom Ten sides ranking 5th (69.91ppg). Also have a Top 5 defence at home (76.15). That’s where the good news ends. They were ranked 8th against Top 8 teams (96.08ppg) and were even worse against Top 4 outfits ranking 11th (102ppg).

Had trouble containing the best teams and all 7 of their losses came against Top 8 teams. Perhaps it’s time that they sacrifice some of their scoring power in order to tighten up their defence or they risk being put out at the Semi Final stage for the third consecutive year.

Midfield:

Average at the Contest ranking 7th for CP DPG (+2.37) with Rory Sloane leading the way (Ranked 11th). Rank 7th for Clearance DPG (+.71) with the evergreen Scott Thompson ranked 13th. Rank 3rd for I50 DPG (+8.08) and 1st for Kicks DPG (+25.42).

Their depth is non-existent and they had a charmed run with injuries in 2016. Really need the Crouch brothers to become elite and Millera or Cameron to come in and inject some much needed pace.

What Lies Ahead:

Hopefully for them Don Pyke is busy working on his defensive structures because if he doesn’t they will be fodder for the big boys again. They will continue to obliterate lesser opposition, no matter the venue. This season they face tougher assignments in Adelaide with GWS, Dogs, Cats, Swans, Hawks, Demons, Saints and Dockers all travelling over as well as the two showdowns…much tougher draw this year. This could be a make or break year for them. They need to progress further into September or else look to hit the trade table and this time actually have the balls to make a move.

Prediction:

I have them finishing Top 4 for the H&A season. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. They will need to show a complete change in their defensive structure and have some depth rise up through the midfield for me to confidently predict them to make a PF.

 

[TiAn_]

Posted this in a thread asking who will finish higher, GWS, Swans or Dogs:

Players that missed 3 or less games with injuries for the top 8 sides.

GWS: Ward, Shiel, Coniglio, Greene, Whitfield, Cameron, Scully, Kelly, Shaw, Mumford, Lobb, Patton, Johnson, Williams, Patfull, Davis, Wilson = 17

Crows: Sloane, Walker, Lynch, Betts, Jacobs, Crouch, Thompson, Jenkins, Atkins, Doublas, Lever, Talia, Cheney, Hartigan, McGovern, Brown = 16

Hawks: Mitchell, Lewis, Rioli, Birchall, Smith, Burgoyne, Gunston, Breust, Gibson, Duryea, McEvoy, Puopolo, Frawley, Sicily, Stratton = 15

Eagles: Shuey, Kennedy, Priddis, Gaff, Hurn, LeCras, Darling, Sheppard, Cripps, Hill, Schofield, Masten, Lycett, Yeo, Butler = 15

Cats: Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan, Motlop, Blicavs, Taylor, Enright, Guthrie, Hawkins, Smith, Bartel, Mackie, Lonergan, Stanley = 14

Roos: Ziebell, Goldstein, Cunnington, Swallow, Harvey, Gibson, MacMillan, Tarrant, Atley, Petrie, Dal Santo, Firrito, Thomas, Brown = 14

Swans: Hannebery, Kennedy, Mitchell, Parker, Jack, Franklin, Lloyd, Rampe, Grundy, Smith, Heeney, Hewett = 12

Dogs: Bont, Stringer, Hunter, Picken, Biggs, Roughead, Boyd, Daniel, Morris = 9

Just look at the quality of players that some teams had access to for every, or nearly every game! GWS practically had their best 18 available for the entirety of the season.

If you push it out to 6 or less games, it includes Macrae, Liberatore, Dahlhaus, Wood and Dickson for the Dogs, which takes us up to 14. But the teams above us in the list move up to 19, 20, 19, 17, 20, 16 and 15 respectively.

When looking only the three teams relevant this thread, you can see just how blessed GWS were in avoiding injuries last year, based on the number of players to miss 1 or no games through injury:

GWS: Ward, Coniglio, Shiel, Greene, Kelly, Patton, Mumford, Scully, Shaw, Cameron, Johnson, Lobb = 12
Swans: Hanneberry, Parker, Mitchell, Franklin, Grundy, Rampe, Lloyd = 7
Dogs: Bont, Hunter, Stringer, Picken, Biggs, Roughead = 6

If the Dogs can have some good fortune with injuries and, the Giants particularly, or the Swans, aren't so fortunate, I could see the Dogs finishing above both.

 

[Yojimbo]

Great assessment of Adelaide Wally, the only side in the top
eight not to lose to a side outside the eight mainly as a
result of their forward potency and efficiency as well as
the knack of scoring high. The Bryce Gibbs non event was
huge as it would have given them the ideal support for
Rory Sloane.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Demons

2016 Record: 10/12

Off Rating: 76.1 (11th)

Rank 8th Interstate (91.28ppg) and against Top 8 teams (77.77ppg). Really struggled against the Top 4 teams averaging just 59.25ppg (15th) which was worse than Brisbane and Richmond. Rank 16th at converting I50’s into Scoring Shots so their efficiency needs improvement. Jesse Hogan ranks in the Top 10 for Mi50 but his conversion is terrible. Lots of work to do in this area of the ground.

Def Rating: 98.89 (10th)

Similar story to their attack. They were very good on the road ranking 6th Interstate (86.42ppg) but really struggled to contain the good sides ranking 15th against Top 4 sides (108.25ppg).

Midfield:

This is the area of the ground where they are starting to show some real quality signs. Ranked 5th for CP DPG (+5.091), 3rd for Clearance DPG (+2.82), 2nd for Disposals DPG (+31.23). This quality of getting first hands to the ball is negated by their ability to get the ball inside their forward 50 ranking 8th for i50 DPG (+3).

Will add Lewis, Melksham and potentially Hibberd into the mix this season so their depth is good. Probably lack some quality ball users with Jones, Viney, Brayshaw and Oliver more CP type players. An injection of speed and better ball users would produce a more efficient offense and therefore a rise up the ladder.

What Lies Ahead:

After being in the hunt for finals after Round 21 in 2016 they will be keen to take another step forward. I like what I’ve seen from Goodwin thus far and think he will be good for their young group. After a decade without finals it’s time for the excuses to stop. They have a dominant ruckman, a decent spine, a potential superstar KPF and a cracking midfield. All the signs are there for the Dees to make a decent run at the final 8.

Early Season Test:

Round 1 v St.Kilda @ Etihad

Lost both their encounters to the Saints last season and will be keen to atone. Need to put the 50/50 games away if they wish to feature in September and it all starts in Round One.

Prediction:

Their horrid record against the Top 4 teams last season should scare me away from making a prediction of finals football and normally I don’t stray from my KPI’s but to me they pass the eye test. There were enough good signs from them last season to think they will go on with it in 2017. The bottom half of the Eight is calling, I think they can do it.

 

[Yojimbo]

You know you are dealing with a small field when you have to
reluctantly include Melbourne, the bastion of belief. How can
any team lose Chris Dawes, Lynden Dunn, Jack Grimes, Matt
Jones, Heritier Lumumba, Ben Newton, Dean Terlich, Viv
Michie and Max King and hope to compete for a flag, such a
massive cull of ability. If Max Gawn is gone for a period of
games then they are gone.

 

[Super Hans]

Crows don't worry me. I expect them to finish top 4 or so, but which team has won a flag without an elite midfield?

2016 dogs - Bontempelli, Libba, Dahlhaus, Macrae
2013-2015 Hawks - Mitchell, Hodge, Burgoyne, Lewis
2012 swans - Kennedy, Jack, Hannebery, Bolton
2007/9/11 cats - Ablett, Corey, Bartel, Selwood
2010 pies - Swan, Pendles, Ball, Thomas
2008 Hawks - Hodge, Mitchell, Sewell, Crawford
2006 eagles - Kerr, Judd, Cousins, Cox

That's the premiers from the last decade who I'd say all (Hawks 08 wasn't great but Buddy and Roughead made up for it) had elite midfields.

Adelaide have Sloane who is a gun, Matt Crouch who is good at finding the footy but not a great user, Brad Crouch who can't stay on the park, a 34 year old Scott Thompson + a bunch of flankers.

That's all fine in h&a but it will get found it in finals. Which is why I can't believe they wouldn't pay a decent price for Gibbs. He was the missing link.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Crows don't worry me. I expect them to finish top 4 or so, but which team has won a flag without an elite midfield?

2016 dogs - Bontempelli, Libba, Dahlhaus, Macrae
2013-2015 Hawks - Mitchell, Hodge, Burgoyne, Lewis
2012 swans - Kennedy, Jack, Hannebery, Bolton
2007/9/11 cats - Ablett, Corey, Bartel, Selwood
2010 pies - Swan, Pendles, Ball, Thomas
2008 Hawks - Hodge, Mitchell, Sewell, Crawford
2006 eagles - Kerr, Judd, Cousins, Cox

That's the premiers from the last decade who I'd say all (Hawks 08 wasn't great but Buddy and Roughead made up for it) had elite midfields.

Adelaide have Sloane who is a gun, Matt Crouch who is good at finding the footy but not a great user, Brad Crouch who can't stay on the park, a 34 year old Scott Thompson + a bunch of flankers.

That's all fine in h&a but it will get found it in finals. Which is why I can't believe they wouldn't pay a decent price for Gibbs. He was the missing link.

That was kind of their Tom Boyd moment and they chickened out

 

[Yojimbo]

That was kind of their Tom Boyd moment and they chickened out

Are you suggesting Adelaide should have offered up their captain
Taylor Walker and a first rounder for Bryce Gibbs, it takes two to
tango as they say and Carlton were in no mood to dance.
There will never be another Tom Boyd "moment" in the history of
mankind, thank Bont.

 

[stefoid]

Wait, GWS aren't competing for the flag? Even if their overall list isn't as amazing as everyone says, you can't seriously believe this?

Our prelim win was amazing... it was amazing because we played brilliant footy to beat a team that was playing brilliant footy. They were a kick away from beating us in a prelim. I rate us very highly. They're a good side, even if not as good as people assure saying, they're certainly in the mix.

GWS motto on the training room wall is Stay Humble.