Preview Who will finish higher - Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda or Hawthorn

[demondavey]

Defeating Swans twice, beating Adelaide at home, losing to Geelong with the last kick of the game, and drawing with GWS once the gameplan was tweaked suggests otherwise.

Only Adelaide scored more post-bye in 2017.

Fair enough if you think Hawthorn won’t make finals, but basing it on gameplan seems pretty odd considering the above.

Hawthorn are more than capable of making top 4. Senior players in; Roughead, Rioli, Gunston, Breust, Frawley, Birchall, Stratton, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Puopolo, Dureya, and McEvoy.

Another year behind; Sicily, Howe, Hardwick.

Up and comers: Burton, Miles.

If Hawthorn have an injury free year, get some early wins, and get a run on, they can definitely make an impact.

 

[gavaniacono]

List wise I think Melbourne are ready. If Roos was still in charge I'd agree with you. I would have Melbourne as that side (to push top 4). But with the uncertainty around Goodwin and the playing group I wouldn't bet on it. It brings the Dees back a bit I think. That being said, even with Goodwin in charge (and the uncertainty around it all), I wouldn't bet against Melbourne either. Its more a wait and see with them. They really do need to sort out their sh*t though. They have a quality list, and it will be a shame if its all for nothing.

And what about your coach?

 

[Farm Boy]

If we don't make top 4 at a minimum with the likes of Viney, Tyson, Petracca, Oliver, Gawn, Hogan, Lever, Hibberd etc then something is seriously wrong. Most clubs with those players on their lists would be top 8 minimum.

That is a fairly high pass mark. Top 4 or bust! Let's break it down. This year you didn't make the finals. Next year you are saying minimum pass mark is top 4. To that I say "baby steps". Or I would go even further and suggest that Melbourne need to at least crawl into the 8 before they can walk into the 4. A minimum pass mark for me would be the top 8. I think that is a reasonable expectation. I think there are a couple of factors that will determine whether Melbourne do make the 8, or do better and make the 4. Those factors are improvement from players like Viney, Petracca, Oliver (all guys who can and should improve this year), and to a lesser extent Brayshaw and Salem. The other important factor is keeping Hogan and Gawn on the park. If Melbourne can do that then I see them finishing higher than St Kilda, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs.

 

[gavaniacono]

Hawthorn are more than capable of making top 4. Senior players in; Roughead, Rioli, Gunston, Breust, Frawley, Birchall, Stratton, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Puopolo, Dureya, and McEvoy.

Another year behind; Sicily, Howe, Hardwick.

Up and comers: Burton, Miles.

If Hawthorn have an injury free year, get some early wins, and get a run on, they can definitely make an impact.

Those players look yesterday's news to me.

 

[gavaniacono]

Sigh - the Richmond win is going to do such a disservice to rebuilding clubs.

Should we get rid of this perennially underperforming coach? Nah, Richmond hung on to their guy so let’s also do it. (Looking at collingwood, Port).

Should we target a key forward in our next offseason? Nah, Richmond got a flag with an undersized jack riewoldt as the only thing resembling a key forward. Let’s not bother. (Looking at collingwood)

Should we load up on bit part, underperforming players from other clubs to top up our best 22? Well, Richmond did it, so we should as well. (Looking at Port, Essendon, Collingwood)


Before jumping to say it worked for Richmond so why won’t it work for us, ask yourself:

Does my club have 2x brownlow medalist midfielders?
Has my club also brought in a top line midfielder from another club to support the two brownlow worthy mids?
Has my clubs underperforming coach just completely overhauled his coaching support staff?
Has my club got a best-in-league key position defender?
Has my club also got a Coleman-medal winning ability forward?

If the answer to any of these is no then references to the Richmond scenario are a bit light on detail.

Richmond took the axe to it's coaching department. Amazingly Hardwick stayed but they had a massive changeover. Unsurprisingly a massive change off field led to a massive change on field.

So if your club is middle of the road/pretty damn average and it isn't doing something drastic it's relying on incremental improvement in the playing list which just isn't enough. You don't leapfrog a bunch of other clubs through incremental improvement.

Thank christ we got balme and not you!

 

[Farm Boy]

And what about your coach?

Yeah what about him? I didn't mention him because in comparison to Goodwin (at this time) there is less of a cloud over Richardson. That isn't to say that he is a great coach or anything, but he does have the respect of the playing group. Goodwin on the other hand, he either doesn't have the respect of the playing group, or isn't communicating with the captains as well as he should be (evidenced by the recent boot camp debacle). To me that represents a little bit of uncertainly heading into next year. Do you not agree?

 

[gavaniacono]

Yeah what about him? I didn't mention him because in comparison to Goodwin (at this time) there is less of a cloud over Richardson. That isn't to say that he is a great coach or anything, but he does have the respect of the playing group. Goodwin on the other hand, he either doesn't have the respect of the playing group, or isn't communicating with the captains as well as he should be (evidenced by the recent boot camp debacle). To me that represents a little bit of uncertainly heading into next year. Do you not agree?

First of all, merry xmas.
2nd, no, I think Goodwin will grow, and Richo cannot. Dees will be top 6. Saints could make the 8 but I dont see the coach being able to upgrade, or change.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Dogs or Dees home final

Saints or Hawks 9-10th

 

[hk89]

Possible that all 4 will finish above the 2017 premiers.

Hard to see more than 3 jumping back into finals though.
The following is not completely out of the question:
Out: WC, Essendon, Richmond
In: Any 3 of the 4 mentioned.

It is possible Geelong could drop out of the 8 too, but if Ablett plays most games next season, they should still make finals comfortably. Can't see Sydney, GWS, Adelaide, or Port missing finals next year.

Bulldogs should be much more settled now that they've moved on their disruptive trash to Essendon.
Melbourne unlucky not to have made finals this year, just need to hold their course and finals should be theirs next year.
Hawthorn with Rioli, O'Meara, Birchall, Rioli, Stratton, Frawley, Poupolo playing most of the season and the rest of the palyers keeping their second half of the season form could easily cover Hodge's departure and make finals.
Saints IMO need to lift most of the 4 mentioned. From memory didn't win a game this year without Nick so clearly he was providing something they needed, and whatever that was, they'll need to cover for it.

WC look to me like they'll be in a transition phase, losing two quality mids that I'm not convinced they can cover this quickly. Essendon barely made finals with the draw of a bottom team and the emotion of the returning players story to drive their motivation. Stringer to potentially destroy their morale in the same way he did at Doggies. Richmond had a perfect storm year with injuries and the lack of a standout contendor over the course of the season, and often teams that win a flag partly on the back of a game plan gimmick don't back up well the next season (Hawthorn 2009, Dogs 2017 are recent examples). IMO don't have enough talent on the list to cover a normal year of injuries, so if they don't get super lucky with their injury list again in 2018 may struggle being the hunted with a game plan that many sides will have been picking apart in the off season.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Dees look best placed to finish highest to me, with a list that looks cherry ripe to be contending for a flag over the next couple of years, with a good smattering of experience and some really high quality young talent, just in or entering the prime years of their careers.

Haven't really followed all the stuff about their cancelled camp, so not sure what all that is about, but their biggest enemy does often seem be themselves, so if it's still an issue they'll need to get on top of that.

Hawks or Dogs could also easily enough finish highest, as they've both been there and done that in recent years and after down years this year could easily enough bounce back hard this year.

Hawthorn probably more likely of the two to do so for mine, if JOM stays relatively injury-free and they don't get crunched by injuries like they did this year.

Obviously followed them pretty closely this year, as we had their first rounder, and was really impressed with their 2nd half of the year, with a decent chunk of their best 22 missing.

They found a few as a result of that and if the returning crew come back well, who's to say their team won't go really well again, if Clarko works his magic?

Not as confident on the Dogs, as they've lost a bit over the last couple of years, with Stringer going, Boyd and Murphy retiring and Libba and Dickson seeming to be shadows of their former selves. You'd also think Morris could hit the wall at any minute.

I guess a lot of their hopes rest on one or both of Toyd or Schache really showing everyone why they went top 2 in their respective drafts. If neither does, and in particular if Dickson also doesn't recapture his best form on top of that, it's very hard to see where the goals come from. Also need Libba back to his best so they can win contested ball again.

Like us, they also need to improve their goalkicking pretty dramatically (worst in the comp this year, just ahead of us in 2nd-last.).

As for us, our best hopes for really surging into premiership contention in 2018 probably lay with Roo in particular and also Joey being able to hang on for one more year, playing at a high level, and in addition landing a reasonable sized "fish" (through FA/trade), to go with them, but none of that happened, so you would think that would make it a lot harder for us to really "explode", as someone put it.

We now reportedly have the 4th youngest list and 2nd-least experienced.

That said, we were still good enough to be 11-10 going into R23 v Richmond, despite neither Nick or Joey coming top 10 in the B&F and also Steven and Armitage playing just 22 games between them and very few at a high standard- plus being the only team in the comp to kick more behinds than goals (as of about R22), etc- so we're obviously doing some things right (eg. first for tackles differential and 3rd for clearance diff) and a decent chunk of our list are just in, or about to enter their prime years, so plenty of them could be ready to really step it up.

A lot of it is likely to depend like in the Dogs case on how Paddy goes in particular, because this year we from memory lost every game where any of Bruce, Riewoldt or Membrey didn't play, but won something like 8 or 9 in a row (leading into that R23 game v Richmond which we lost) when all 3 of them played together, so it seems like that 3-pronged forward structure is very important to the way we play.

Even though we probably improved this year, we didn't improve as much as many thought we would, and teams with greater improvement and/or easier draws passed us, so it was largely seen as a disappointing year, but that may just be the spur to get us to really surge this year instead, like teams who were on the nose this time last year like Port or Richmond did, when few expected them to. Could go any number of ways.

 

[Lsta062]

I am going to say that the team that I see has the biggest potential to finish the highest from this list is St Kilda. Yeah, St Kilda does not have the stars like the other 3 sides, but I feel like they are at a stage in their rebuild where their entire team can improve by a lot in just one off-season. So, they are the only team here that I think could finish in the top 2.

However, I don't know if they'll fulfill what I see as their potential, so I am going to go with Melbourne.

 

[demondavey]

That is a fairly high pass mark. Top 4 or bust! Let's break it down. This year you didn't make the finals. Next year you are saying minimum pass mark is top 4. To that I say "baby steps". Or I would go even further and suggest that Melbourne need to at least crawl into the 8 before they can walk into the 4. A minimum pass mark for me would be the top 8. I think that is a reasonable expectation. I think there are a couple of factors that will determine whether Melbourne do make the 8, or do better and make the 4. Those factors are improvement from players like Viney, Petracca, Oliver (all guys who can and should improve this year), and to a lesser extent Brayshaw and Salem. The other important factor is keeping Hogan and Gawn on the park. If Melbourne can do that then I see them finishing higher than St Kilda, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs.

Ok sorry sorry, when I said 'top 4' I meant that at a minimum over the course of the list life we need to be making that. Next year? Well that's doubtful. Top 8 next year is required as a start.

 

[Mningasimisonda]

Ok sorry sorry, when I said 'top 4' I meant that at a minimum over the course of the list life we need to be making that. Next year? Well that's doubtful. Top 8 next year is required as a start.

Should really have been top 8 this year. Just decided they'd made it and relaxed a bit early.

Need the attitude that winning the Grand Final is the only goal. Then they'll have a chance of finishing top 4.

Could also have been that the younger players are still getting the conditioning to keep it up for a whole season. I think you guys were on target for top 4 earlier in the season.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hawthorn are more than capable of making top 4. Senior players in; Roughead, Rioli, Gunston, Breust, Frawley, Birchall, Stratton, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Puopolo, Dureya, and McEvoy.

Another year behind; Sicily, Howe, Hardwick.

Up and comers: Burton, Miles.

If Hawthorn have an injury free year, get some early wins, and get a run on, they can definitely make an impact.

Replace Miles with Glass, and I’d agree.

Also have Lovell, O’Brien and Morrison who the club are pretty keen on(plus O’Rourke, if he can put some games together without breaking down).

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Not sure how, lost their best player this year.

Too top heavy in the midfield and forward line. No speed

Yes, I see Saints going back, before going forward. McCartin doesn't appear ready to take over from Riewoldt.

Also, lack another quality midfielder to support Stevens & Ross.

Lots of young talent, but they don't appear to be in the premiership zone age wise.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Hawthorn are more than capable of making top 4. Senior players in; Roughead, Rioli, Gunston, Breust, Frawley, Birchall, Stratton, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Puopolo, Dureya, and McEvoy.

Another year behind; Sicily, Howe, Hardwick.

Up and comers: Burton, Miles.

If Hawthorn have an injury free year, get some early wins, and get a run on, they can definitely make an impact.

I can see the Hawks making the top 8, but they don't have the players they used to threaten top 4 imo... despite the genius of Clarkson.

 

[Dez!]

I'd back us to be the highest place but all of Melbourne, Dogs and St Kilda are all prime to play finals.

 

[Joey longshadow]

Possible that all 4 will finish above the 2017 premiers.

Hard to see more than 3 jumping back into finals though.
The following is not completely out of the question:
Out: WC, Essendon, Richmond
In: Any 3 of the 4 mentioned.

It is possible Geelong could drop out of the 8 too, but if Ablett plays most games next season, they should still make finals comfortably. Can't see Sydney, GWS, Adelaide, or Port missing finals next year.

Bulldogs should be much more settled now that they've moved on their disruptive trash to Essendon.
Melbourne unlucky not to have made finals this year, just need to hold their course and finals should be theirs next year.
Hawthorn with Rioli, O'Meara, Birchall, Rioli, Stratton, Frawley, Poupolo playing most of the season and the rest of the palyers keeping their second half of the season form could easily cover Hodge's departure and make finals.
Saints IMO need to lift most of the 4 mentioned. From memory didn't win a game last year without Nick so clearly he was providing something they needed, and whatever that was, they'll need to cover for it.

WC look to me like they'll be in a transition phase, losing two quality mids that I'm not convinced they can cover this quickly. Essendon barely made finals with the draw of a bottom team and the emotion of the returning players story to drive their motivation. Stringer to potentially destroy their morale in the same way he did at Doggies. Richmond had a perfect storm year with injuries and the lack of a standout contendor over the course of the season, and often teams that win a flag partly on the back of a game plan gimmick don't back up well the next season (Hawthorn 2009, Dogs 2017 are recent examples). IMO don't have enough talent on the list to cover a normal year of injuries, so if they don't get super lucky with their injury list again in 2018 may struggle being the hunted with a game plan that many sides will have been picking apart in the off season.

What game plan gimmick... Our flag was built on pressure and working for each other... Like every other grand finalcwinning side... And if you think bombers and us are going to drop out of the 8 your not paying attention

 

[demondavey]

What game plan gimmick... Our flag was built on pressure and working for each other... Like every other grand finalcwinning side... And if you think bombers and us are going to drop out of the 8 your not paying attention

Bombers are a flag smoky

 

[hk89]

What game plan gimmick... Our flag was built on pressure and working for each other... Like every other grand finalcwinning side...

Unlike other grand final winning sides, you have relatively low average talent levels. Your pressure game covered for that well, but with a lot more work put into analysing your weaknesses , and your talent depth more exposed by a more normal looking injury list next year, the weak links will be exploited more easily next season in ways that pressure alone can't patch over. A slide for Tigers next year is even more predictable than the dogs slide this year.

 

[demondavey]

Unlike other grand final winning sides, you have relatively low average talent levels. Your pressure game covered for that well, but with a lot more work put into analysing your weaknesses , and your talent depth more exposed by a more normal looking injury list next year, the weak links will be exploiting more easily next season in ways that pressure alone can't patch over. A slide for Tigers next year is even more predictable than the dogs slide this year.

Huge call. Expect the Tigers fans to climb off their Christmas left overs and start a war spurned by that comment!

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

With the bloke who's lead the Dogs goal kicking the last 3 seasons now running around for another team it'll be interesting to see if they can find a forward target to replace him.

The games Stringer was out injured, we seemed to kick higher scores, I think we will be fine.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Bombers are a flag smoky

Can't see it with their midfield lacking quality depth.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

With the bloke who's lead the Dogs goal kicking the last 3 seasons now running around for another team it'll be interesting to see if they can find a forward target to replace him.

Hawthorn did ok losing Buddy, Geelong did ok losing Ablett Jnr, and Stringer was not in that calibre he was too lazy for that.

We underperformed last year, 2015 and 16 we made finals, and could have been top four in both years. One down year, due to a range of reasons and we are rated on that instead, interesting.

 

[Joey longshadow]

Unlike other grand final winning sides, you have relatively low average talent levels. Your pressure game covered for that well, but with a lot more work put into analysing your weaknesses , and your talent depth more exposed by a more normal looking injury list next year, the weak links will be exploiting more easily next season in ways that pressure alone can't patch over. A slide for Tigers next year is even more predictable than the dogs slide this year.

Tell ya what let's revisit this at the end of next season