Racing WS Cox Plate 2023

[Jugada]

Tenuous rankings after having a look at todays races

1. Fangirl - Has never raced beyond a mile in open grade and has to be a huge possibility Cotton Wool Waller just sets her for one of the mile races.
2. Alligator Blood - Ticked the 2000m box today by winning well. Form out of the race was questionable but we already know he has a high enough level at his best. As an on speed runner at the Valley will likely start favourite for mine.
3. Gold Trip - If he backs up I think he is the best horse but he will be sitting near last at the Valley and likely running up the back of them like last year.
4. Romantic Warrior - Not getting the juice in the price for his average first up run.
5. Mr Brightside - Has class but dont think he stays 2000m at all.

Confidence levels very low though and in such an open edition feels like we could get a Pinker Pinker, FOO, Shamus Award type winner

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Cooked

Yeah wtf happened to Zaaki?

 

[iluvparis]

Can the gator fill a place ?
Feel it's in good form

Yeah lots of them can fill a place

 

[iluvparis]

My map - awful draw for Fangirl because Uncle Chris will want to drag her back to last

 

[iluvparis]

My market

 

[ShaunWDT]

Zaaki $6 the place PointsBet.

Prepared to be made to look like an idiot but I dont think it would win if it started now especially drawing wide, surprised they've gone the Cox route.

 

[anabac]

Track manager said Romantic Warrior this morning was the best work he'd seen since winx

 

[balmainforever]

Remember that RW WILL START FAVOURITE ON THE STAB TOTE.

 

[balmainforever]

Poll will be properly up after 1pm

 

[anabac]

Remember that RW WILL START FAVOURITE ON THE STAB TOTE.

Already $4 outright fave fixed

Edit: into $3.80

 

[Optimistic Dog]

My market

View attachment 1838724

You have been spot on so far I had WWB just in front of WAF in the CC backed both would have preferred the other order, The horse I have the most trust in to perform at his best is AB. Did not beat much last start but ran out strong 2,000 metres in a fast ran race. Is his best good enough to win I think so but will find out Saturday.

 

[iluvparis]

You have been spot on so far I had WWB just in front of WAF in the CC backed both would have preferred the other order, The horse I have the most trust in to perform at his best is AB. Did not beat much last start but ran out strong 2,000 metres in a fast ran race. Is his best good enough to win I think so but will find out Saturday.

I still have doubts about him over 2000 - he beat Vow And Declare and Duais there who are not Cox Plate calibre. Plus he started $26 in this last year when going just as well so can't have him here as a $6 second fave.

 

[HeathySure]

My market

View attachment 1838724

I see RW has firmed 50 cents on PB, must be my $10 million on it

 

[HeathySure]

You have been spot on so far I had WWB just in front of WAF in the CC backed both would have preferred the other order, The horse I have the most trust in to perform at his best is AB. Did not beat much last start but ran out strong 2,000 metres in a fast ran race. Is his best good enough to win I think so but will find out Saturday.

couif
He didnt run out the 2000m that strongly, he ran home the last 200 in 13 seconds, that is painfully slow. Its just the others in the race were worse

 

[Joker91]

Prepared to be made to look like an idiot but I dont think it would win if it started now especially drawing wide, surprised they've gone the Cox route.

Beat Fangirl last start over 1600m.

He will run the trip. Few up top of the market much better over a mile.

 

[iluvparis]

Beat Fangirl last start over 1600m.

He will run the trip. Few up top of the market much better over a mile.

I mean that wasn’t even a race where they walked and Fangirl was ridden dead. See the turnaround with FG and TIO in the KC for the true merit of that form.

Zaaki has had two PRs this prep and been rolled and is coming off a setback and couldn’t place last year when in much better form. I give it absolutely none

 

[bigblueboy]

My map - awful draw for Fangirl because Uncle Chris will want to drag her back to last

View attachment 1838722

Agree Miliatarize must go forward from that gate and with the weight - it's chances greatly improved.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

I still have doubts about him over 2000 - he beat Vow And Declare and Duais there who are not Cox Plate calibre. Plus he started $26 in this last year when going just as well so can't have him here as a $6 second fave.

Summary: 33-15:5:1 Prizemoney: $7,480,525
Min/Max-Dist-Win: 1200/2000 1st Up: 10:4-1-1 2nd Up: 9:4-3-0
Track: 2:0-0-0 Dist: 3:1-0-0 Track/Dist: 1:0-0-0
Firm: 0:0-0-0 Good: 25:14-4-1 Soft: 5:1-1-0 Heavy: 3:0-0-0


Last year was a heavy 8 not a fair race to use. Good track 14 from 25 better than a 50% win ratio . Soft to heavy 1 from 8.

 

[iluvparis]

Summary: 33-15:5:1 Prizemoney: $7,480,525
Min/Max-Dist-Win: 1200/2000 1st Up: 10:4-1-1 2nd Up: 9:4-3-0
Track: 2:0-0-0 Dist: 3:1-0-0 Track/Dist: 1:0-0-0
Firm: 0:0-0-0 Good: 25:14-4-1 Soft: 5:1-1-0 Heavy: 3:0-0-0


Last year was a heavy 8 not a fair race to use. Good track 14 from 25 better than a 50% win ratio . Soft to heavy 1 from 8.

He ran second on a soft 7 in the Makybe Diva beaten a bees dick in that prep so I'm reluctant to blame it on the soft. He was also unplaced in the Caulfield Stakes two weeks earlier against virtually the same field.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

He ran second on a soft 7 in the Makybe Diva beaten a bees dick in that prep so I'm reluctant to blame it on the soft. He was also unplaced in the Caulfield Stakes two weeks earlier against virtually the same field.

Look may not be good enough but it is impossible ignore his good track record to rain affected track record.

 

[iluvparis]

His Cox Plate/Caulfield Stakes and Makybe diva runs all on soft are some of his best ratings - just another data point in the race to grey up on.

 

[iluvparis]

ONE MINUTE COX PLATE FORM GUIDE

ROMANTIC WARRIOR - Quite simply if he finds his best he bolts in - but hard to see him doing that off his first up failure - currently not enough juice in the price to find out.
ZAAKI - Veteran on the downward spiral who had his chance last year in better form and failed. Here off a set back. No.
MR BRIGHTSIDE - Glorious spring came to an end when smashed in the face by Fangirl in the KC. Would probs be fave if this was over a mile but the 2000 looks set to test him to the limit.
ALLIGATOR BLOOD - Mr B has had his measure twice already this spring and despite winning a pissweak Might and Power there must be doubts over his 2000m ability at the elite level.
GOLD TRIP - Huge in the CC under the big weight but drawn to settle dead last and need a lot of luck to get a fair crack at them. Probably storms home late for 4th or 5th and firms as MC fave.
MY OBERON - No. Shouldn't have been allowed to run.
PINSTRIPED - Thankfully he won the win and in race or he would have been PENstriped by the committee - 500/1.
FANGIRL - Gate no help but some chance she absolutely explodes out to 2000. If she can somehow settle in the first half of the field with cover she is the one to beat.
DUAIS - Got run over by Vow and Declare last start says it all. Cooked and lucky not to be balloted.
VICTORIA ROAD - To back him at these odds you are hoping he explodes out to 2000 and are looking at his 2yo win over Blue Rose Cen and his $7 SP v Ace Impact. These B grade NH 3yos have won regularly but he would be the worst of them to do so.
MILITARIZE - Well held in a slowly run Caulfield Guineas and this 3yo crop are dogshit. If he can't settle in the first 3 in running he is a 50/1 shot.
KING COLARDO - This is horse is actually no good. Won a dogshit JJ Atkins where he opened 80/1 final field and has shown nothing since to suggest he should be allowed to run here.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

If comments by his trainer are anything to go by. Romantic Warrior isn't winning on Saturday

 

[Jugada]

Yeah wtf happened to Zaaki?

He old

 

[Jugada]

Very surprised with how well the price of Fangirl is holding up. Comes at the perfect time really after she has just ran to an all time high while plenty of others flopped at their last start.

The trip might be of some concern but she has never tried it and the only time she has raced beyond a mile was in the Vinery as a 3yo where she ran a massive spike PB so im inclined to think she will run it fine

 

[FFB1]

Got Zaaki leading them up (bold call, I know), AB sitting behind it, VR 1-1, Mr B 3 back pegs, RW lobbing behind VR. Militarize from that gate buried away 4 back fence (Zac Lloyd ). KC 3 wide pocketing Fangirl (don’t like that gate), Pinstriped following it with GT on its inside and having ALOT to do. Duais nowhere to go behind Militarize.

Reckon Shinn is a positive on VR, but if the real RW shows up could go wooshka past it (hope not, snagged the very, very good stale price 365, saver on RW). Prepared to pot GT this time. Have it between RW, VR (wallet talking), despite form sneaky chance AB if MV rail is on, likewise Mr B.

Shield up prepared for iluvparis critique.