Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared - Part 2

[Chief]

This is part 2 of this thread.

PART 3 IS HERE --- >

Science/Environment - Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - HCQ doesn't work - Part 3

This is part 3 of this thread. Part 2 is here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/wuhan-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-declared-part-2.1238728/ --------------- It looks like it began in wild animals being sold for human consumption, and once again the consequences of this stupidity is...

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[Doss]

15 new cases in Tassie. Presumably most of them in the Burnie cluster.

You’d want that to start slowing down soon, because it’s increasing a little too quickly for comfort at the moment.

 

[Dry Rot]

Whats your latest thoughts Dry Rot

have you seen the testing in the German city that showed 15% of the population had already had it?
And the Iceland testing that showed a very high % of those tested positive were asymptomatic?

I wouldnt be at all surprised if well over 20% of people in London had already had it (largely due to massive use of the tube pre lockdown).

Also there is a school of thought that the virus was here far earlier than first thought.

Agree with all of that.

For many weeks, I've reckoned the rate of infection here is somewhere between 10 - 100 times what we know. Have read reports of viral pneumonia in Wuhan in November, so it probably has been circulating well before this year.

There is a school of thought that community levels of Vitamin D are playing a role in the relative high number of cases in the northern hemisphere (end of winter) and the relative low number of cases in the southern hemisphere (end of summer).

If true, that is good news for you but bad news for us as we head towards winter here.

Stay well.

 

[medusala]

Agree with all of that.

For many weeks, I've reckoned the rate of infection here is somewhere between 10 - 100 times what we know. Have read reports of viral pneumonia in Wuhan in November, so it probably has been circulating well before this year.

Yep, as I said above I have been told it was probably in the UK in late December or earlier but wasnt picked up. Heathrow is big international hub so makes sense. Apparently the Lombardy outbreak started from Chinese textiles workers who had travelled to China and back.

There is a school of thought that community levels of Vitamin D are playing a role in the relative high number of cases in the northern hemisphere (end of winter) and the relative low number of cases in the southern hemisphere (end of summer).

The NHS in the UK struggles badly to cope with normal flu season. If the peak came in January here it would be a completely different story I think. I am sure there are people in the govt and nhs who want as many people as possible to get the virus before normal flu season starts in the end of October. In that respect the northern hemisphere has been VERY lucky.

NB re Vitamin D - maybe instead of lockdowns govts encourage people to go outside whilst self distancing??

 

[its free real estate]

For many weeks, I've reckoned the rate of infection here is somewhere between 10 - 100 times what we know. Have read reports of viral pneumonia in Wuhan in November, so it probably has been circulating well before this year.

If true, this disease is nothing. 100 times more infections in Australia means it is weaker in terms of mortality than the flu.

 

[medusala]

If true, this disease is nothing. 100 times more infections in Australia means it is weaker in terms of mortality than the flu.

UK modelling which lead to the shutdown used mortality rate of around 3% whereas now they think its more like .1- .3%.

Apparently modelling was based on Chinese data. They conveniently lied about the outbreak, bought up PPE gear everywhere, then gave out false data which will crash economies. All a coincidence?

 

[Total Power]

Case numbers are BS though. In the UK unless you are in hospital they wont test you (though starting to do nhs workers now). If as per Germany you test more you will have more cases!

The smarter cats just extrapolate from deaths (though even that is dodgy ie the UK til now has left off non hospital deaths in its count).

what you think is the real number (of deaths) in the UK?

 

[Doss]

If true, this disease is nothing. 100 times more infections in Australia means it is weaker in terms of mortality than the flu.

100 times more would give us 640,000 infections as of right now.

Forgive me for being skeptical.

 

[Snake_Baker]

100 times more would give us 640,000 infections as of right now.

Forgive me for being skeptical.

Bigfooty.com viral epidemiologists........................everywhere.

 

[medusala]

what you think is the real number (of deaths) in the UK?

Well allegedly in Spain and Italy 50% of deaths are in care homes so lets start by increasing by 50%.

Then adding another 10% of people who died at home who died in their sleep or an ambulance didnt come in time.

Then supposedly subtract people who died of something else but had CV put as cause of death.

 

[medusala]

100 times more would give us 640,000 infections as of right now.

Forgive me for being skeptical.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford

 

[Clems Knee]

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford

Why it’s too tempting to believe the Oxford study on coronavirus | Free to read

Alongside the Covid-19 death total, there are other clues to the truth

www.ft.com

 

[medusala]

Harford is quite good. However, Oxford study said up to 50% I think not that 50% had it. Even Imperial College is now saying IIRC 3-5% of UK (and you would assume London is multiples of that).

One German town was tested and was found that 15% had already had it. Given growth rates I dont think its inconceivable that 20-30% of people in London will have had it by the end of this month.

In short until the test is available in large numbers its all guess work.

NB this happened in Iceland too.

The entire population of the town of Vò in Italy was repeatedly tested and, while half of the positive cases were asymptomatic, that is still much less than the Oxford model might lead us to expect.

 

[kaiserchief13]

100 times more would give us 640,000 infections as of right now.

Forgive me for being skeptical.

Yeah but 380000 would be recovered with only 60 deaths

 

[Total Power]

Well allegedly in Spain and Italy 50% of deaths are in care homes so lets start by increasing by 50%.

Then adding another 10% of people who died at home who died in their sleep or an ambulance didnt come in time.

Then supposedly subtract people who died of something else but had CV put as cause of death.

Yep looks like this is the case, the number could be 20k+ easily.


There is mounting anger in Northern Ireland over authorities’ failure to disclose the number of coronavirus-related deaths in care homes.
The health minister, Robin Swann, said on Tuesday that 32 care homes had been affected but their death toll remains unclear, prompting protests from politicians and advocacy groups.

Dr Michael McBride, the chief medical office, said the process of registering deaths was complicated, involving death certificates, the General Register Office and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. “Every death counts. Behind every death is a person. It is wrong to create an impression that those lives lost don’t matter,” McBride told BBC Radio Ulster.

Northern Ireland’s official death toll – 134 – relates only to hospital deaths. Northern Ireland has 484 care homes, with 16,000 beds.
The pandemic has wrought a severe toll on nursing homes across the border in the republic of Ireland, accounting for around half of the country’s 365 death toll.

 

[Les Malone]

If true, this disease is nothing. 100 times more infections in Australia means it is weaker in terms of mortality than the flu.

Very early on i was of the opinion it was around a bad flu season, there was a bad season in the UK a couple of years that apparently lead to the death of around 50,000 (the beast from the east), an incredible number for an accepted yearly illness, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...crisis-bad-weather-illness-2017-a8660496.html i think this is worse than the flu and also ongoing issues may be worse, but i don't think its as bad as what we were lead to believe and FWIU vitamin C, D and zinc along with common sense eating, exercise and hygiene would see us be probably fine.

I did link that German study a couple of days ago, but odds are you can find another one that says mortality rates are higher and community transmission is much lower.

Its impossible i have decided to actually find reliable stats and generally in these type of situations you need them not hysteria or fear mongering.

 

[Les Malone]

100 times more would give us 640,000 infections as of right now.

Forgive me for being skeptical.

what is more likely is the virus is doing the rounds among kids who have little or no symptoms and when school goes back and they even mingle more it will make its way back up the age groups - in winter when people are in doors

 

[its free real estate]

The idea that that this was around a lot earlier than thought is a myth propagated by the CCP, and genetic studies have essentially disproven it already.

 

[medusala]

There is mounting anger in Northern Ireland over authorities’ failure to disclose the number of coronavirus-related deaths in care homes.
The health minister, Robin Swann, said on Tuesday that 32 care homes had been affected but their death toll remains unclear, prompting protests from politicians and advocacy groups.

Have only seen one article on this in the UK but read it somewhere re Italy also.

There is the possibility of a real scandal in hospital patients being transferred to care homes and taking the virus with them. Ditto people going to hospital for other reasons and catching the virus there.

If there is one place that should have been tested and locked down with utmost security it was care homes.

Northern Ireland’s official death toll – 134 – relates only to hospital deaths. Northern Ireland has 484 care homes, with 16,000 beds.
The pandemic has wrought a severe toll on nursing homes across the border in the republic of Ireland, accounting for around half of the country’s 365 death toll.

Didnt know that. Fits with what I posted earlier. Suspect UK numbers are out of whack with others then.

 

[Les Malone]

UK modelling which lead to the shutdown used mortality rate of around 3% whereas now they think its more like .1- .3%.

Apparently modelling was based on Chinese data. They conveniently lied about the outbreak, bought up PPE gear everywhere, then gave out false data which will crash economies. All a coincidence?

it was a hysterical snowball rolling downhill that no politician that wanted to stay in power could say no to.

they can easily point to saving lives, knowing full well that the truth was actually the opposite, probably more lives, marriages, businesses, etc etc would be lost shutting the economy down

 

[Clems Knee]

Very early on i was of the opinion it was around a bad flu season, there was a bad season in the UK a couple of years that apparently lead to the death of around 50,000 (the beast from the east), an incredible number for an accepted yearly illness, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...crisis-bad-weather-illness-2017-a8660496.html i think this is worse than the flu and also ongoing issues may be worse, but i don't think its as bad as what we were lead to believe and FWIU vitamin C, D and zinc along with common sense eating, exercise and hygiene would see us be probably fine.

I did link that German study a couple of days ago, but odds are you can find another one that says mortality rates are higher and community transmission is much lower.

Its impossible i have decided to actually find reliable stats and generally in these type of situations you need them not hysteria or fear mongering.

Your approach led to 1500 people in USA dying every day. Good on you.
It’s a modification of the SARS virus and treating it like an influenza was the cause of the steady stepping up of responses, and then the runaway numbers we have seen.
With a higher mortality rate than influenza and a higher transmission rate but a longer latency period, treating this virus like the flu lead to exponential growth rates in most European countries.
The mortality rate is lower than SARS, but there are asymptomatic or mild symptoms in this corona virus, which makes outcomes worse over all.
Thank goodness, Australia changed their response in time (so far).

 

[Clems Knee]

it was a hysterical snowball rolling downhill that no politician that wanted to stay in power could say no to.

they can easily point to saving lives, knowing full well that the truth was actually the opposite, probably more lives, marriages, businesses, etc etc would be lost shutting the economy down

You keep saying that word hysterical; I do not think it means what you think it means.
You should use the term considered or timely.
You would have had millions dead. The Pol Pot of BigFooty.

 

[Les Malone]

You keep saying that word hysterical; I do not think it means what you think it means.
You should use the term considered or timely.
You would have had millions dead. The Pol Pot of BigFooty.

quite frankly my dear

your reply is verging on hysterical

 

[Clems Knee]

quite frankly my dear

your reply is verging on hysterical

No. Considered. Calculated.

Luckily you have no power. Your opinions have been consistently wrong and dangerous. If there was no response as you promoted; the. Millions would be dead by now.

 

[Les Malone]

No. Considered. Calculated.

Luckily you have no power. Your opinions have been consistently wrong and dangerous. If there was no response as you promoted; the. Millions would be dead by now.

you should stop lying, because at no stage did i state that we should make no response

a considered, calculated lie by you

 

[Clems Knee]

you should stop lying, because at no stage did i state that we should make no response

a considered, calculated lie by you

Apologies. I should have said “almost no response”.

“If you are insinuating i have said its just the flu and we should do nothing - then you are wrong.... again.

i have constantly said we should have had new protocols around isolating the weak old and sick, but for the bulk of us we should just get on with it.

It will probably turn out for millions of Australians that the cure is worse than the actual disease based on statistical evidence IMO.”

You and your band of hysterical ninnies have constantly bombarded anyone who disagrees with your opinion that they are uncaring nazi racist fascists and state they just say "it's just the flu" time after time.