LIVE Federal Election Coverage 2016

[baz_machine]

Lil' Johnny did setup the Future Fund, which will be paying out the Civil Service for a long time.

We'd be in a much bigger budget hole without it

 

[Lebbo73]

As long as the Libs hang their hat on Howard they can't move forward as they need to. History will be far kinder to the Rudd/Gillard government, even Paul Kelly admitted it was a success, than the Howard years. It's taken less than ten years to see Howard's alleged legacy to be pulled to pieces.

Keep kidding yourself

 

[Demosthenes]

To be honest I wouldn't describe either the Howard or Abbott governments as 'hard right'.

I think some people on this board need a bit of a reality check about what hard right politics are. We are pretty lucky that real hard right politics (e.g. Marine le Pen's FN) have a negligible following in this country.

 

[Mateyman]

To be honest I wouldn't describe either the Howard or Abbott governments as pursuing 'hard right' policies.

I think some people on this board need a bit of a reality check about what hard right politics are. We are pretty lucky that real hard right politics (e.g. Marine le Pen's FN) have a negligible following in this country.

Also that's one of the things which is kind of good about Hanson is that she's not actually particularly skillful I don't think, unlike people like Trump and Le Pen, who have much more charm/charisma.

 

[JeffDunne]

Don't see how that's a negative, would rather a leader willing to change his or her opinions based on the sentiment of the people and govern accordingly.

I think that's how fascism starts.

Populism is fine when it's restrained by principle. Howard had none.

 

[Mateyman]

Also as is probably clear from my posting about it a fair bit, I wish they would update the count of Melbourne Ports! I reckon it's massively underrated how close it is but would be interested to hear others' thoughts. For some reason it's one of the least counted electorates in the land, with less than 60,000 votes counted at this point. Not really sure why

 

[Forward Press]

I think that's how fascism starts.

Populism is fine when it's restrained by principle. Howard had none.

There's definitely a fine line between democracy and fascism but throwing around terms like that really isn't helping your argument. In the end the leader of the government is accountable to the people.

 

[Forward Press]

Also as is probably clear from my posting about it a fair bit, I wish they would update the count of Melbourne Ports! I reckon it's massively underrated how close it is but would be interested to hear others' thoughts. For some reason it's one of the least counted electorates in the land, with less than 60,000 votes counted at this point. Not really sure why

Big postal/pre-poll/absentee vote?

 

[nobbyiscool]

Gillard never got married herself. I think she's of that old school feminist mold that says marriage came out of a paternalistic concept of owning women, so why would a modern woman take part in it?

There's similar thinking from some gay writers. Given marriage for so long has been associated with religion and religions in the past weren't very nice to gay people, then some people think gay people shouldn't want to get married. I'd have to look at her comments more closely, but she was openly atheist and I wonder if her comments about tradition could have slyly said that she was listening to those opinions, without really endorsing the conservative schools of thought.

Of course in both cases the far more popular opinion is to say that marriage is about official commitment to loving one other, and a lot of people love the feeling of stability it gives - especially when they're setting off on the long-term project of building a family.

I certainly hope that wasn't her argument - matrimony is a religious institution, marriage is a legal one. The notion that it's a feminist or a LGBTIQA idea to allow religion to hijack a legal institution so as to deny them legal equality would be crazy. Especially when you bare in mind that state conference after state conference voted to support marriage equality as party platform at the time.

I think Bomberboy was more on the mark - she was pandering to the powerful shoppies union in rejecting it.

Never voted for him but I think John Howard deserves to be rated as one of our best ever PMs. Getting the gun control laws passed is probably one of his finest achievements and I like to think the vast majority of Australians would give him plaudits for it.

I don't think it's unreasonable to view this as proof that even a broken clock is right twice a day. Nothing more, nothing less. Don't get me wrong - I watch what happens in the US and I will remain eternally grateful for the political courage it took - but doing one universally laudable thing in the space of 11 years doesn't support the idea that he was a great PM.

Not really, but aside from my own personal misgivings about his handling of Tampa and broader criticism of the increasing security state since 9/11 (not that an ALP government would've done it differently btw), he was competent and the economy went along well. The proportion of the success that can be attributed to him and government is up for debate.

I don't remember any divisions in the Liberal Party at the time when he was PM aside from of course Costello constantly angling for his job. Maybe it's the nostalgia talking. The modern Liberal Party is now deeply divided and while I enjoy seeing them fail, I'd rather they got their shit together.

It would've taken someone extraordinarily mentally deficient to not keep that economy going along well. He road the wave of the Telstra sale and the mining boom. And the reason I agree with the suggestion that his Prime Ministership (and Costello's treasurership) is because we now see the long term impact of the mining boom and the Telstra sale ie. There isn't one.

Those proceeds were pissed away on middle class welfare and tax breaks for the wealthy... and now we find ourselves in debt having to pay for essential infrastructure such as an NDIS and a fibre optic network to replace the long-failing copper network.

Examples of the 'hard right'? Certainly not as hard right as Tony and co.

While there are obviously examples of "hard right" politicians overseas - we've seen them in Europe an of course we saw Thatcherism in the UK.

But I don't believe it was ever an issue that Howard had to deal with. Hanson's infamous speech was in 1996 - she was rightly castigated as an ignorant racist.

It was only after 9/11 that Tea Party politics gained traction in the US, with the Australian version gaining traction shortly after with Tampa.

Shortly after this, Howard had won 3 elections consecutively, coming off the back of a disastrous period of Peacock/Hewson/Downer... by the time this hard right politics was gaining traction, Howard was all-powerful in his party, and was invoking a lot of the same ideals that they'd ridiculed following Hanson's speech.


Howard's "legacy" is a product of timing - he got the back of the mining boom, the fall of the Democrats (which is relevant to the GST), Telstra, the mining boom and Tampa. He got the perfect set of circumstances for a Liberal PM that even Abbott couldn't not have screwed up.

But his lack of a lasting legacy is why his Prime Ministership has quite rightly not aged well.

 

[Forward Press]

To be honest I wouldn't describe either the Howard or Abbott governments as 'hard right'.

I think some people on this board need a bit of a reality check about what hard right politics are. We are pretty lucky that real hard right politics (e.g. Marine le Pen's FN) have a negligible following in this country.

Would you classify One Nation as hard right? I am aware that their primary vote totals are still relatively small but it was still substantial in 1998 and obviously they have at least one in the Senate so far.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Also as is probably clear from my posting about it a fair bit, I wish they would update the count of Melbourne Ports! I reckon it's massively underrated how close it is but would be interested to hear others' thoughts. For some reason it's one of the least counted electorates in the land, with less than 60,000 votes counted at this point. Not really sure why

Looks like Danby's going to win reasonably comfortably, unless the Greens candidate can somehow over take him and move into second place in the preferences.

 

[ManWithNoName]

Complete recount ordered for Cowper. Oakeshott comeback?

 

[Donakebab]

NXT looks like snagging another safe Liberal seat in Grey, which was counted as a win on Saturday when counting closed.

 

[The Speaker]

Also as is probably clear from my posting about it a fair bit, I wish they would update the count of Melbourne Ports! I reckon it's massively underrated how close it is but would be interested to hear others' thoughts. For some reason it's one of the least counted electorates in the land, with less than 60,000 votes counted at this point. Not really sure why

The votes that will be counted most quickly are those in seats where the result is already known. Seats that are in doubt will have scrutineers all over them and progress very slowly. Melbourne Ports probably has three sets of scrutineers as well.

 

[Forward Press]

ABC:

• Petrie: At the moment Liberal MP Luke Howarth is just holding on with 81.3% counted.
• Herbert: Labor's Cathy O'Toole ahead of Govt MP Ewen Jones with 82% counted.
• Capricornia: Labor's Leisa Neaton leading Govt MP Michelle Landry with 79.8% counted.
• Forde: Incumbent Bert Van Manen is trailing Labor's Des Hardman with 78.7% counted.
• Gilmore: Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis is ahead with 85% counted.
• Chisholm: Liberal Julia Banks is leading Labor's Stefanie Perri with 69% counted.
• Dunkley: Liberal candidate Chris Crewther is holding on with 74.1% of the vote counted.
• Hindmarsh: Former Labor MP Steve Georganas is leading Govt MP Matt Williams with 78.4% counted.
• Grey: NXT's Andrew Broadfoot is in front of Govt MP Rowan Ramsey with 77.5% counted.
• Cowan: Labor's Anne Aly is ahead of the incumbent Luke Simkins with 77.2% counted

If they all stay the same, that's ALP 5, LNP 4, NXT 1.

 

[sverik25]

NXT looks like snagging another safe Liberal seat in Grey, which was counted as a win on Saturday when counting closed.

The thing with Grey only 6.69% of the two candidate preferred count has been done. At the moment the lead to the NXT is 5.16% or 678 votes but that may well disappear.

 

[Mateyman]

Looks like Danby's going to win reasonably comfortably, unless the Greens candidate can somehow over take him and move into second place in the preferences.

I would expect nearly all votes from the Animal Justice Party, HEMP and Marriage Equality party to go to the greens though. And that's roughly 5% of the vote and there's only 2% between the Greens candidate and Danby. Apparently Greens do badly with postals in Melbourne Ports though. This could be because of a significant Jewish community some of whom don't vote on Saturdays. People have reported that Greens generally do well in pre-polls though

 

[Forward Press]

NXT looks like snagging another safe Liberal seat in Grey, which was counted as a win on Saturday when counting closed.

I think I read somewhere about 5 MPs meaning you get party status and funding. 3 in the Senate and 2 in the H of R would then be a huge bonus for NXT.

 

[nobbyiscool]

I doubt the gloss comes off Howards years in the general populations mind, he looked after them well when he was in power, and most want link the long term effects of his policies and their issues now. Academics and economists on the other hand, but the are all raving lefties anyway so will be dismissed.

I know you're being a little tongue in cheek - but if the smartest people in the country who base their opinions on science and research think something, isn't there a strong chance that they're right.

That "we" are so anti-intellectual in this country as to ignore them as lefties is one of this country's great shames.

Speaking of, the TV we bought with Kevin 07's budget stimulus is just starting to break

Mine too. I feel like a got a good 8 years out of my plasma, but the burn in is starting to become very noticeable, and I couldn't find anything I liked at a price I liked in the recent EOFY sales

The Opposition would oppose, that's no surprise. I am saying that if it was an ALP government communicating with GWB in the US they would've done the same thing. Don't get me wrong, I'm anti-war and probably side with the ALP over the Libs in most things, but the political reality at the time meant we were going in no matter who was in power (imo).

It actually was a surprise. I'm pretty sure it was the first time we'd committed troops to anything that didn't have bipartisan support since the 1960s.

Keep kidding yourself

He's actually right - the Rudd/Gillard government has a lasting legacy in the NBN (or at least the shell of it), in centrist workplace relations reform, and in the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

The Howard legacy is the GST, a drastic lowering of political discourse in Australia (I don't know if you're old enough to remember Keating, but what a slippery slope the Howard years took us down), and pissing away the proceeds of the mining boom with tax cuts that were unsustainable and that would eventually lead us into debt when we had to pay for the infrastructure that we needed.

 

[The Speaker]

ABC:



If they all stay the same, that's ALP 5, LNP 4, NXT 1.

Most of those have had no results come in today yet, and the three that have have not had many come in.

 

[Mateyman]

The thing with Grey only 6.69% of the two candidate preferred count has been done. At the moment the lead to the NXT is 5.16% or 678 votes but that may well disappear.

Looking at the primaries though, you would imagine NXT would mop up pretty much all of the Labor and Greens preferences which would get them to about 50% or a touch over.

 

[Demosthenes]

Would you classify One Nation as hard right? I am aware that their primary vote totals are still relatively small but it was still substantial in 1998 and obviously they have at least one in the Senate so far.

Yeah probably. I guess it comes back to what labels on a two dimensional spectrum really mean.

I don't really think there are many proper nationalists in Australia though. In 1998 and this year, One Nation's success has more been about voters feeling disenfranchised in a couple of specific policy areas.

 

[The Speaker]

NXT looks like snagging another safe Liberal seat in Grey, which was counted as a win on Saturday when counting closed.

The ABC website is now running both a preference count from the AEC website, and a projected preference count. Ramsey leads on the latter.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/grey/

 

[Forward Press]

Most of those have had no results come in today yet, and the three that have have not had many come in.

Aware of that, ABC posted it is slow going, just found that summary useful. Although apparently Melbourne Ports has been left off the list.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

I know you're being a little tongue in cheek - but if the smartest people in the country who base their opinions on science and research think something, isn't there a strong chance that they're right.

That "we" are so anti-intellectual in this country as to ignore them as lefties is one of this country's great shames.

Agree 100%.