Prediction The Run Home - Final Five

[GreyCrow]

The general BF consensus ( so it must be true) is that there are only 5 times contesting for a GF spot. Adelaide, Geelong, GWS, Port and Sydney.

Does anyone want to add another side?

In light of this and the need to seek attention I went through each teams final run home and did some predicting and made some stuff up to ensure Adelaide finished top by a lot.

Adelaide 5 games to finish maximum 20 points minimum 12 expected 16. 64/72
v Collingwood MCG win
v Port Adelaide AO ?? 60/40
v Essendon Etihad win
v Sydney AO ?? 60/40
v West Coast Subiaco ?? 60/40


Geelong 5 games to finish maximum 20 points minimum 12 expected 20 58/66
v Carlton Etihad win
v Swans Simounds win
v Tigers Simounds win
v Magpies MCG win
v GWS Simounds win

GWS 6 games to finish maximun 24 points minimum 8 expected 12 56/68
v Tigers MCG ??
v Fremantle Spotless win
v Melbourne Manuka ??
v Bulldogs Etihad Loss
v Eagles Spotless win
v Geelong Simounds Loss

Port 6 games to finish maximum 24 minimum 12 expected 16 56/64
v Melbourne MCG ??
v St Kilda AO win
v Adelaide AO ??
v Magpies AO win
v Bulldogs Eureka ??
v Gold Coast AO win

Sydney 6 games to finish maximum 24 points minimum 12 expected 16 52/60
v St Kilda SCG win
v Hawks MCG ??
v Geelong Simounds loss
v Fremantle SCG win
v Adelaide AO ??
Carlton SCG win

I have taken some licence with Adelaide but I am trying to be fair The bolded are games I expect to be ''signpost games'' which could alter significantly the hopes of each team

Melbourne and Richmond fans might have a say and I havent looked at their draws but in the interest of letting others have a go I have left them out

Port could finish as high as 3rd

 

[Scorpus]

I want Richmond to finish 4th and us to finish 1st, because we'd absolutely obliterate Richmond at AO in a final

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

Will hold off on whether Port are contenders for a few hours.

This is a signpost game (TM) for them.

 

[Geoffa32]

Will hold off on whether Port are contenders for a few hours.

This is a signpost game (TM) for them.

Every Tealster is excited after seeing us fade out last n8ght due to the "Darwin effect".

If they are a genuine top four team they will smash the Dees.


FWIW I think they will.

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[Geoffa32]

Top spot is there for us.

Beat Sydney and WCE and we have beaten every top 8 side during the year.

A great thing for the boys to have mentally going into Finals.

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[Red mist]

Maybe Melbourne. Get their full mid complement back in time and they could do something WB like.

 

[DJ75]

Not convinced we will beat both Collingwood and Essendon. Suspect we will drop one of those games by simply not showing up.
Last night was a 100% effort game. Will struggle to match that intensity next week. Likewise Port will be a 100% game, so backing up against Essendon will be a struggle.

Still think we finish 2nd.

 

[GreyCrow]

Maybe Melbourne. Get their full mid complement back in time and they could do something WB like.

What is their draw like? I think today will show a lot

 

[Red mist]

What is their draw like? I think today will show a lot

I should have added if they win today which I think they can. Not sure on the run home but I wouldn't think it's as tough as others. Better than the Tigers I reckon.

 

[Huntercrow]

Not convinced we will beat both Collingwood and Essendon. Suspect we will drop one of those games by simply not showing up.
Last night was a 100% effort game. Will struggle to match that intensity next week. Likewise Port will be a 100% game, so backing up against Essendon will be a struggle.

Still think we finish 2nd.

Nothing wrong with that. We have been there before and still didn't make the GF. Some teams get there and think all the hard work has been done. Nek minnit!

 

[Deaneus!]

Make no mistake we just sent a massive shot across the bow of every other team in the AFL

We should be alright against collingwood with two extra day's break

Then Port on a Sunday afternoon, another 8 point game, plus if we win we take the lead in Showdowns

What a time to be alive

 

[adelaidecrows]

Make no mistake we just sent a massive shot across the bow of every other team in the AFL

We should be alright against collingwood with two extra day's break

Then Port on a Sunday afternoon, another 8 point game, plus if we win we take the lead in Showdowns

What a time to be alive

We will be the best side port have faced in a while. Huge game.

 

[ams4crows]

Looking forward to seeing Knight v Wingard and Greenwood v Wines

Massive Showdown! Also likely we'll play them first week of finals so great mentally for whichever team won only a month ago.

 

[Aaron929]

I'm still not sold on port at all, still yet to beat a top 8 side. They beat up on the lower teams and fail against the above teams,

Yea they beat Eagles in Perth but Eagles had no Kennedy also if they had kicked straight early in the game they would of been beaten

 

[pjcrows]

If we finish 1st and chalk up a win against Sydney then we'd go in to September as clear premiership favourites. Our run home isn't easy.

Until then I think Sydney and a fit GWS are the ones.

We need to focus on Collingwood.

 

[DD#23]

I'd be happy to win four of the next five, perhaps dropping on of the Essendon or West Coast games.

I know some people don't subscribe to the "due for a loss" theory but we always seem to find a way to add some weight to the argument. Can't help but feel if we win the next five straight something will go wrong in finals, but of course I'll happily take the next eight in a row if we can do it - touch wood.

 

[Squiba]

Our Sydney game is absolutely huge.

 

[Golumless]

Adelaide last 5
v Collingwood MCG win - May get a letdown game after a big fortnight, but Collingwood are puss. Should do this easily.
v Port Adelaide AO win - Had their measure recently, and have a better side too boot. T
v Essendon Etihad win - Essendon are alright, but this should be a pretty regulation win.
v Sydney AO ?? 50/50 - The premierships darkhorse. Reckon they'll be setting up to ambush us here, and are a good enough side to do it effectively.
v West Coast Subiaco loss 30/70 - By now we should have top 2 locked up, and may avoid going all out here.

 

[GreyCrow]

Lets add Melbourne after winning today they are on 40 points with 5 games to go maximum 20 minimum 12 52/60

v Kangaroos in Tassie/Blundstone ??
v Giants Manuka ??
v Saints MCG win
v Lions MCG win
V Magpies MCG win

 

[Aaron929]

I knew I wasn't sold on port and today showed exactly that they might even drop St Kilda next week

 

[GreyCrow]

I knew I wasn't sold on port and today showed exactly that they might even drop St Kilda next week

Not at home and not in front of 25,000

 

[azza77]

Really should be beating Port, Bombers and the Pies if we are serious. Bombers will be interesting because one week they show up and look the goods, the next they're s**t again.

Swans will be our biggest test of them all. Should knock them off at home you'd hope, but they're always a tough outfit. Need to bring the same mentality we brought last night vs Geelong if we want to get the 4 points.

Unsure about the Eagles game. Will be a tough game and wont be too phased if we lose, but I feel like losing the last game before we head into finals will make me uneasy. We've dismantled them before at Subi, and Port did it to them this year. Will be interesting if we can do the same. A win here will be an even bigger win for the coaches.

 

[Tex Danger]

Id add Melbourne to the list. Probably a little early for them but their best form has been exceptional, significant injuries hurt them over a few weeks but they absorbed it and minimised the damage (the Carlton win important) and can now reset for a tilt.

Bit like the dogs last year, if they hit form their youthful enthusiasm and arrogance (in a good way) could really pull them through a huge month.

Id have them 5th on the list with Port 6th

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Adelaide last 5
v Collingwood MCG win - May get a letdown game after a big fortnight, but Collingwood are puss. Should do this easily.
v Port Adelaide AO win - Had their measure recently, and have a better side too boot. T
v Essendon Etihad win - Essendon are alright, but this should be a pretty regulation win.
v Sydney AO ?? 50/50 - The premierships darkhorse. Reckon they'll be setting up to ambush us here, and are a good enough side to do it effectively.
v West Coast Subiaco loss 30/70 - By now we should have top 2 locked up, and may avoid going all out here.

I think Essendon at Etihad is actually a lot harder than it seems , concerned re that one ( amongst others )

 

[rezagun]

Make no mistake we just sent a massive shot across the bow of every other team in the AFL

We should be alright against collingwood with two extra day's break

Then Port on a Sunday afternoon, another 8 point game, plus if we win we take the lead in Showdowns

What a time to be alive

We are now $3.50 for the flag. Red hot favourites.