List Mgmt. Geelong’s looming list profile crisis (it’s not what you think)

[year of the cat]

If Constable, Narkle and Cockatoo all leave of course we have a list issue (crisis a bit of a reach). Name the kids that are left that are decent? Clark..... maybe Stephens and DeKonning. We can’t afford to be losing these types and starting over again. Once Selwood and Danger retire, the chasm that will be left in talent will quickly become apparent.

 

[Down at K Park]

Is that how we finished #1 for points for?

And how has that panned out when we reach the finals against good pressure teams? We struggle to even score 50 points most times.

We are nothing but flat track bullies who can score well in low pressure regular season games. When finals come round and the pressure gets cranked up we go to water, and can’t score. Cause our game plan is overly defensive and not built to handle high pressure.

 

[redmond_herring]

Pace is not the issue, we never had that much. What we had was moving the ball quickly with running players to take it.

I agree with you that lack of leg speed is somewhat countered by fast ball movement -

But mid last year we saw Jordan Clark arrive and jesus was it good to see a new face whose first instinct is to run run run.

 

[Cataholic]

And how has that panned out when we reach the finals against good pressure teams? We struggle to even score 50 points most times.

We are nothing but flat track bullies who can score well in low pressure regular season games. When finals come round and the pressure gets cranked up we go to water, and can’t score. Cause our game plan is overly defensive and not built to handle high pressure.

Where do we sit as a scoring team in finals?

 

[Footy Smarts]

If Constable, Narkle and Cockatoo all leave of course we have a list issue (crisis a bit of a reach). Name the kids that are left that are decent? Clark..... maybe Stephens and DeKonning. We can’t afford to be losing these types and starting over again. Once Selwood and Danger retire, the chasm that will be left in talent will quickly become apparent.

I'd say Parfitt, Henry, O'Connor and Miers should be included since they're all younger than Cockatoo and in our best 22. Close, Simpson, Ratugolea and Fogarty were all selected ahead of those 3 at various times this year when they were fit so if you rate those 3 I don't really see how the guys getting a number of games ahead of them aren't at least decent.

Cockatoo if he gets fit will likely be a big loss. Narkle could be a big loss but there's a lot of inconsistency within his game. I'd have him similar to Fogarty in talent but behind guys like the ones in our best 22 along with Ratugolea and Clark. I don't really see it in Constable but I know others disagree. Overall we've got a lot of young players who might or might not make it. If we lose the guys who go on to make it it'll hurt but there are lots of similar guys on our list currently.

 

[year of the cat]

I'd say Parfitt, Henry, O'Connor and Miers should be included since they're all younger than Cockatoo and in our best 22. Close, Simpson, Ratugolea and Fogarty were all selected ahead of those 3 at various times this year when they were fit so if you rate those 3 I don't really see how the guys getting a number of games ahead of them aren't at least decent.

Cockatoo if he gets fit will likely be a big loss. Narkle could be a big loss but there's a lot of inconsistency within his game. I'd have him similar to Fogarty in talent but behind guys like the ones in our best 22 along with Ratugolea and Clark. I don't really see it in Constable but I know others disagree. Overall we've got a lot of young players who might or might not make it. If we lose the guys who go on to make it it'll hurt but there are lots of similar guys on our list currently.

My point is that we have a dearth of quality kids, no doubt due to our ladder position each year precluding us from the top end of the draft. But sooner or later it will bite.

The 4 that you’ve named are what I’d call solid players. All have deficiencies and aren’t young stars. We could get lucky and someone like Stephens may end up better than his draft position would indicate - but its a gamble.

We may need to swallow a bit of medicine as Sydney and the Hawks are currently doing in order to develop a list with some genuine quality through the 22.

 

[Down at K Park]

Where do we sit as a scoring team in finals?

Excellent point. I'd love to know that.

 

[thejester]

We may need to swallow a bit of medicine as Sydney and the Hawks are currently doing in order to develop a list with some genuine quality through the 22.

Or just keep the picks they've got.

 

[Turbocat]

If Constable, Narkle and Cockatoo all leave of course we have a list issue (crisis a bit of a reach). Name the kids that are left that are decent? Clark..... maybe Stephens and DeKonning. We can’t afford to be losing these types and starting over again. Once Selwood and Danger retire, the chasm that will be left in talent will quickly become apparent.

imo It is imperative that we absorb and trust to get games into young players we rate , hopefully players with good values and good leadership attitudes.

If we dont then we will be in 'trade in' cyclical stupor every year , a full on crazy Vossy mode every few years .. and eventually one loses the core of what make us ... us.

If a clubs culture is the players attitude and actions then if we keep bringing in other players..we are bringing in other cultures..and when the AA player go ..who will be guiding those trade ins.. Lets take this year for example... We bring in Crouch and Cameron .. and they the leaders we trust the future of the clubs culture to ?

I look at Ess and they have brought in players .. have that made them stronger or more fractured? If they lose Merrit down the track it would be extrememly damaging.

We can keep bringing in individuals.. we did that for years .. guys like Sidebottom and Peake and others were going to be the difference makers. Not many trades are Ottens. .. because Ottens was almost at the end of a build. ..we had made a Prelim. Its almost like Daniher going to Brisbane.

Now I can live with the club making hard choices on young drafted players if they feel are short of required.. we really do not need dry well players.. 50 games into players and find that it has been wasted effort as they are short of the required standard. So get the best kids in and then trusting them ..but it will be painful. We may not be able to promise we are competitive to the older guys... although personally ..until I see different the clubs idea of being competitive seems a little bit different to mine.

 

[4quarter_cat]

My point is that we have a dearth of quality kids, no doubt due to our ladder position each year precluding us from the top end of the draft. But sooner or later it will bite.

The 4 that you’ve named are what I’d call solid players. All have deficiencies and aren’t young stars. We could get lucky and someone like Stephens may end up better than his draft position would indicate - but its a gamble.

We may need to swallow a bit of medicine as Sydney and the Hawks are currently doing in order to develop a list with some genuine quality through the 22.

Thats not how I see it at all.

Parfitt, Fog, Simpson, Miers, Clarke, Close all excite me. Henry is continuing to improve year on year. O'Connor is still getting better and better.
Next year we lose Ablett and Taylor, there are more miles on everyone's clocks. I concede we may not be the team to beat, but we're not gonna fall away into oblivion the way it is suggested.

 

[year of the cat]

Or just keep the picks they've got.

They’ve or we’ve?

 

[year of the cat]

Thats not how I see it at all.

Parfitt, Fog, Simpson, Miers, Clarke, Close all excite me. Henry is continuing to improve year on year. O'Connor is still getting better and better.
Next year we lose Ablett and Taylor, there are more miles on everyone's clocks. I concede we may not be the team to beat, but we're not gonna fall away into oblivion the way it is suggested.

Excite you? I don’t think one of those will be a genuine A grader. Parfitt a solid B grader. Henry has good attributes but will never get to an Enright or Milburn level. We will need at least 6 bona fide A graders to be able to compete with the top teams. We just don’t have that coming through atm.

 

[year of the cat]

imo It is imperative that we absorb and trust to get games into young players we rate , hopefully players with good values and good leadership attitudes.

If we dont then we will be in 'trade in' cyclical stupor every year , a full on crazy Vossy mode every few years .. and eventually one loses the core of what make us ... us.

If a clubs culture is the players attitude and actions then if we keep bringing in other players..we are bringing in other cultures..and when the AA player go ..who will be guiding those trade ins.. Lets take this year for example... We bring in Crouch and Cameron .. and they the leaders we trust the future of the clubs culture to ?

I look at Ess and they have brought in players .. have that made them stronger or more fractured? If they lose Merrit down the track it would be extrememly damaging.

We can keep bringing in individuals.. we did that for years .. guys like Sidebottom and Peake and others were going to be the difference makers. Not many trades are Ottens. .. because Ottens was almost at the end of a build. ..we had made a Prelim. Its almost like Daniher going to Brisbane.

Now I can live with the club making hard choices on young drafted players if they feel are short of required.. we really do not need dry well players.. 50 games into players and find that it has been wasted effort as they are short of the required standard. So get the best kids in and then trusting them ..but it will be painful. We may not be able to promise we are competitive to the older guys... although personally ..until I see different the clubs idea of being competitive seems a little bit different to mine.

That’s exactly my take. Stop the endless topping up now ala Tuohy, Henderson, Rohan, Dahlhaus, Steven etc and focus on the draft. Even trading into the elite top picks. And then once you’ve established a great core look to plug the holes with a couple of trades like we did with Ottens.

 

[BORIS332]

And how has that panned out when we reach the finals against good pressure teams? We struggle to even score 50 points most times.

We are nothing but flat track bullies who can score well in low pressure regular season games. When finals come round and the pressure gets cranked up we go to water, and can’t score. Cause our game plan is overly defensive and not built to handle high pressure.

Is that how we had 17 scoring shots to Port's 13 in the qualifying final?

 

[BORIS332]

If Constable, Narkle and Cockatoo all leave of course we have a list issue (crisis a bit of a reach). Name the kids that are left that are decent? Clark..... maybe Stephens and DeKonning. We can’t afford to be losing these types and starting over again. Once Selwood and Danger retire, the chasm that will be left in talent will quickly become apparent.

Parfitt, Brandan
Henry, Jack
O'Connor, Mark
Miers, Gryan
Ratugolea, Esava
Fogarty, Lachlan
Clark, Jordan
Guthrie, Zach
Simpson, Sam
Close, Bradley
Jarvis, Ben

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If Constable, Narkle and Cockatoo all leave of course we have a list issue (crisis a bit of a reach). Name the kids that are left that are decent? Clark..... maybe Stephens and DeKonning. We can’t afford to be losing these types and starting over again. Once Selwood and Danger retire, the chasm that will be left in talent will quickly become apparent.

Clark SDK Parfitt Henry miers MOC Sav Fogarty close plus I rate taheny and the 3 R1s we draft this year. Sure none are generational talents like Selwood but there's a few likely successes there.

 

[My Tilly]

Is that how we had 17 scoring shots to Port's 13 in the qualifying final?

Look at the tackle count mate.
Three stats which happen to be the three same stats that have always represented the game well.
Tackles, clearances and contested possessions.
We won two of them convincingly and lost the contested possession count by 4.

We were forced wide to boundary line and even when we did have realistic opportunities to kick a goal, Tommy Hawkins did what his finals record implies, weltered under the pressure.

 

[Turbocat]

That’s exactly my take. Stop the endless topping up now ala Tuohy, Henderson, Rohan, Dahlhaus, Steven etc and focus on the draft. Even trading into the elite top picks. And then once you’ve established a great core look to plug the holes with a couple of trades like we did with Ottens.

We all willl see it differently ..and the club will continue on the road they have chosen. Id love to be able to have access to the obviously more talent kid, no certainty obviously ..but we need some youth that is good enough to hold its own and be selected in front of more mature players

 

[Cataholic]

Is that how we had 17 scoring shots to Port's 13 in the qualifying final?

It's how we choked those 17 scoring shots to record just 42 points........

 

[thejester]

They’ve or we’ve?

We've.

 

[year of the cat]

Clark SDK Parfitt Henry miers MOC Sav Fogarty close plus I rate taheny and the 3 R1s we draft this year. Sure none are generational talents like Selwood but there's a few likely successes there.

No A-graders there mate. Which is why the top 6-7 picks in the draft are critical. Reckon I'd look to trade up now this year.

 

[catempire]

Thought some of you might be interested to see a comparison between the composition of the past few flag sides and Geelong’s best 22 now.

Note: I’ve counted Hawkins as a top 10 pick given he was taken under the previous F/S system.

It’s clear there’s a class gap at the top end, with Geelong having about two fewer first round picks and slightly fewer second rounders. That’s about three players difference at the top end in total. Arguably, we have managed to bridge a fair bit of that gap in acquiring Dangerfield through trade.

But it does tend to indicate to me that there’s not a world of difference between us and the composition of successful recent teams. It’s a matter of 2-3 players at the top end. Note that this doesn’t include Clark, Stephens or Cockatoo, all of whom, if they made Geelong’s best 22, would immediately bridge the gap in quality that is observed. Geelong also has another three first round picks to come shortly. So again, the scope to bridge the gap is within reach.

At the risk of banging on about it, it again shows to me that the first round failures in Smedts, Thurlow and Lang, added to by the injury failures in Menzel and Cockatoo, are what have hurt us most. It is not any decision to favour an approach to bring in ready-made over drafting. If anything, the above shows that we haven’t utilised that approach significantly more than recent successful clubs.

 

[year of the cat]

Thought some of you might be interested to see a comparison between the composition of the past few flag sides and Geelong’s best 22 now.
View attachment 980432
Note: I’ve counted Hawkins as a top 10 pick given he was taken under the previous F/S system.

It’s clear there’s a class gap at the top end, with Geelong having about two fewer first round picks and slightly fewer second rounders. That’s about three players difference at the top end in total. Arguably, we have managed to bridge a fair bit of that gap in acquiring Dangerfield through trade.

But it does tend to indicate to me that there’s not a world of difference between us and the composition of successful recent teams. It’s a matter of 2-3 players at the top end. Note that this doesn’t include Clark, Stephens or Cockatoo, all of whom, if they made Geelong’s best 22, would immediately bridge the gap in quality that is observed. Geelong also has another three first round picks to come shortly. So again, the scope to bridge the gap is within reach.

At the risk of banging on about it, it again shows to me that the first round failures in Smedts, Thurlow and Lang, added to by the injury failures in Menzel and Cockatoo, are what have hurt us most. It is not any decision to favour an approach to bring in ready-made over drafting. If anything, the above shows that we haven’t utilised that approach significantly more than recent successful clubs.

This is certainly true but none of the above were high first rounders - all were getting to the more speculative side. It seems more and more now that the due diligence that clubs put in, increased testing as well as the increased exposure of the draftees results in a more accepted order than before. To nail an elite kid now generally (there are exceptions) needs a top 10 pick, maybe even top 5 in some years.

 

[redmond_herring]

At the risk of banging on about it, it again shows to me that the first round failures in Smedts, Thurlow and Lang, added to by the injury failures in Menzel and Cockatoo, are what have hurt us most. It is not any decision to favour an approach to bring in ready-made over drafting. If anything, the above shows that we haven’t utilised that approach significantly more than recent successful clubs.

Your point about those players named is 100% spot on, and plays a huge part of why out list is so age heavy.

So regarding Smedts/Thurlow/Lang, do you think we under developed them or were they s**t picks? There is no 3rd option.

Rather than kissing the ground Wells walks on, I think he had a stellar decade but potentially even he is part of our 'ageing list'.....? Am I too harsh?

 

[catempire]

This is certainly true but none of the above were high first rounders - all were getting to the more speculative side. It seems more and more now that the due diligence that clubs put in, increased testing as well as the increased exposure of the draftees results in a more accepted order than before. To nail an elite kid now generally (there are exceptions) needs a top 10 pick, maybe even top 5 in some years.

That’s where the biggest gap is though - non top 10 first round picks. Had just 2 of those come off we would have been essentially identical to those successful teams (in profile).