List Mgmt. 2022 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals: Kinnear & Dalrymple - we march to no drum but our own!

[Ticky009]

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

The thing is though that we don't really need a lot of players. Our list build is going well, we are not a club that is trying to rebuild so adding an a extra draft pick is almost pointless. Better to go with the higher pick and only get one player who in theory will be of a better quality than two lower picks who in theory won't be as good.

If I were North I would be trading down to bring in more picks as they need more players coming in and would be better off with two B graders than one A grader but we are not quite in that position.

Bit cruel on the kids dragged into Norf. Good kids go in but few prosper in that Wasteland.

 

[caesar88]

First topic: who will we take at our first pick....

We can agree (I think) that we can definitely rule out: Ashcroft, Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Tsatas, Humphrey, Clark, Mackenzie

Pretty likely gone: Phillipou, Ginbey, Busslinger, (I'd be happy to take any of these if they slipped through)

After that possibilities include: Hollands, Hustwaite, Allan, Hewett, Hotton, Konstanty, Jones, Jefferson, Hayes, Weddle, Hotton, George, Cowan.

How confident can we be that our first pick will be one of these names? 90%? 99%?

Of these, are there any that we rule out? If so, why?

I think Konstanty and Jones may be good players and they could play a role we could use but they are not priority needs and I doubt they will be best available so I'm tempted to rule them out.

I have fluctuated in my feelings about Jefferson and Hayes: they are both Vic Metro kids and I was a bit concerned when I saw that Hayes was unable to finish the time trial. But they both fit our needs well. Jefferson is a KPF and they're hard to get and an area of need for us plus he's a different type to Logan McDonald (more of a marking target). I'd be happy for us to take Jefferson if he gets to us. Hayes offers genuine height (199 cm), speed, and has a December birthday. Somehow I can't see us recruiting Hayes, and I think Jefferson will probably be gone. However, if we do draft one of them, I'll back our recruiters to have made a savvy choice and be relieved that a key position need is hopefully taken care of for the forseeable future.

Of the rest I'm leaning to Hustwaite or Allan - I hope we get one of those two. And I think at least one of them (or Jefferson, or one of those I said would pretty likely be gone) will be available.

****

Second topic: pick trades I'd be interested in

1. Trading our second first rounder to Essendon for pick 22 and their future second (and maybe throwing in a little something extra to get the deal over the line)

2. Trading our second first rounder to Collingwood for their picks 25 & 27 (apparently they're interested to get a pick inside the top 20). Then we could hopefully get one of Keeler or Barnett and some other likely type that slides through e.g. Cowan, Weddle, Konstanty, Gruzewski, George.

****

What do you think?

Thanks for this, very informative for those of us not in the loop on this year's draft. Will report you if we pick someone you haven't named

 

[SGBeach]

Second topic: pick trades I'd be interested in

1. Trading our second first rounder to Essendon for pick 22 and their future second (and maybe throwing in a little something extra to get the deal over the line)

2. Trading our second first rounder to Collingwood for their picks 25 & 27 (apparently they're interested to get a pick inside the top 20). Then we could hopefully get one of Keeler or Barnett and some other likely type that slides through e.g. Cowan, Weddle, Konstanty, Gruzewski, George.

I see West Coast as another option for a pick trade.. Im pretty confidant that they will be looking to bring in as much talent asap. There might also be a WA draftee or someone West Coasts wants still available at p17, but likely gone at their p20.. Hewett, Busslinger, Allan - All WA kids tipped to go p10-20.
They've also got 2 x 2nd round picks both this year and next.

either
p17 for p20 + future 2nd (tied to freo)
or
p17 for 26 + future 2nd (tied to west coast)

Who knows who Beatson / Dalrymple are targeting with our 2nd pick? Could we get him with p20 / 26?

We do they that Beatson said we would like to strengthen next years draft hand as we might be more active (at trade time)

 

[Ticky009]

Waiting for the typical WTF first round pick we usually do. First one will be predicable, second is where we might get inventive as our next pick won't be until the late 30's after you adjust for F/S pics etc.

 

[RUNVS]

Waiting for the typical WTF first round pick we usually do. First one will be predicable, second is where we might get inventive as our next pick won't be until the late 30's after you adjust for F/S pics etc.

Yep. I will barely have heard of the guy we take at pick 17 and will be madly trying to find information on him on bigfooty all while bigfooty continues to crash.

 

[Bloods86]

First topic: who will we take at our first pick....

We can agree (I think) that we can definitely rule out: Ashcroft, Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Tsatas, Humphrey, Clark, Mackenzie

Pretty likely gone: Phillipou, Ginbey, Busslinger, (I'd be happy to take any of these if they slipped through)

After that possibilities include: Hollands, Hustwaite, Allan, Hewett, Hotton, Konstanty, Jones, Jefferson, Hayes, Weddle, Hotton, George, Cowan.

How confident can we be that our first pick will be one of these names? 90%? 99%?

Of these, are there any that we rule out? If so, why?

I think Konstanty and Jones may be good players and they could play a role we could use but they are not priority needs and I doubt they will be best available so I'm tempted to rule them out.

I have fluctuated in my feelings about Jefferson and Hayes: they are both Vic Metro kids and I was a bit concerned when I saw that Hayes was unable to finish the time trial. But they both fit our needs well. Jefferson is a KPF and they're hard to get and an area of need for us plus he's a different type to Logan McDonald (more of a marking target). I'd be happy for us to take Jefferson if he gets to us. Hayes offers genuine height (199 cm), speed, and has a December birthday. Somehow I can't see us recruiting Hayes, and I think Jefferson will probably be gone. However, if we do draft one of them, I'll back our recruiters to have made a savvy choice and be relieved that a key position need is hopefully taken care of for the forseeable future.

Of the rest I'm leaning to Hustwaite or Allan - I hope we get one of those two. And I think at least one of them (or Jefferson, or one of those I said would pretty likely be gone) will be available.

****

Second topic: pick trades I'd be interested in

1. Trading our second first rounder to Essendon for pick 22 and their future second (and maybe throwing in a little something extra to get the deal over the line)

2. Trading our second first rounder to Collingwood for their picks 25 & 27 (apparently they're interested to get a pick inside the top 20). Then we could hopefully get one of Keeler or Barnett and some other likely type that slides through e.g. Cowan, Weddle, Konstanty, Gruzewski, George.

****

What do you think?

If we got Hustwaite, then traded picks to land Barnett or Keeler, then got Gruzewski, I would probably get banned for hubris.

On SM-A135F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Callipygian]

The thing is though that we don't really need a lot of players. Our list build is going well, we are not a club that is trying to rebuild so adding an a extra draft pick is almost pointless. Better to go with the higher pick and only get one player who in theory will be of a better quality than two lower picks who in theory won't be as good.

If I were North I would be trading down to bring in more picks as they need more players coming in and would be better off with two B graders than one A grader but we are not quite in that position.

I follow your logic but I don't agree for the following reasons.

First, I think you are overlooking (or more probably just underrating) that draft picks, especially future draft picks, are a currency and they can be converted into stuff other than the player you could draft with them. A future second is valuable.

Also, assuming we wait until the pick is about to be used, we (and the relevant other club) will know who is and isn't available with the pick and, at that point, we and they can decide that the player you would get at 17 may or may not be significantly better (or different even) than the one you might get if you trade back a bit further. It's quite possible there's a divergence of opinion between clubs that makes the deal worthwhile for both parties.

Finally, even if you get two players who are 60/40 to be best 22 compared to one who is a 70% chance, you're more likely to get a best 22 player - so it can still make sense to pick multiple, slightly inferior players over a single, better one.

****

I like the mention about trading with West Coast if they're interested. Sliding back a few places with our second pick to bring in a future second (especially if we're confident that we'll still get a player we're keen on) is good business.

****

I agree that if Hustwaite and Allan are unavailable and so are the others I've rated, then Hollands is probably the next best bet. But Hollands doesn't excite me. I think of Hollands a little like Florent but slower - and he has a high floor rather than a high ceiling. The reason I prefer Hustwaite and Allan is because they are more different from the other players on our list - in particular they offer height and high ceilings.

Also because of their high ceilings I'm interested in players like Keeler and, later on, Munkara. As RUNVS has pointed out, our list is in pretty good shape. Therefore, not quite the same as what RUNVS was saying but, in a similar vein, we can afford to roll the dice on someone who is a bit risky, or who might take longer to develop, especially if the prospective reward makes it an enticing option.

George and Hewett are two players I've heard mixed things about. Both have talent, but also questions over their temperament and IQ. (Maybe a bit like Ladhams? Nothing like George Hewett.)

 

[caesar88]

Do we think having a ball-winning mid in Cleary lined up next year could deter us from going for such a player this year? I don't usually subscribe to the idea of a future draft dictating what you do with the current one, but I realise the circumstances are slightly different with academy kids as our insight and expertise on the prospects a year in advance is superior to the non-academy kids.

 

[Shaq_01]

Hi Team

Long time reader (several years) first time contributor

Finally joined the forum and got around to it

So I been thinking about this draft …

In my opinion their are several ways we can go about this

Firstly I will start with the players I like

In no order

Cowan, Allen Humphrey Knobel Barnett George Edwards bradtke

I am not sold on hustwaite

Keeler I like but I would not draft him

I think this draft is far more important for us than many think

This is the draft we either get the talls right or we get the impact X factor players right

Cowan Allen Humphrey George can be impact players for us and can add a point of difference in a year or two

Allen could be that big athletic wing like a Blicavs in some ways - few years back Blicavs and Goodes use to have great battles … and maybe Allen can develop more into a current Blicavs minus the part time Ruck

Keeler could be a less talented buddy - that’s Keeler ceiling … obviously buddy is once a generational player .. and was drafted much higher and was more developed and advanced at 18 .. but Keeler has a massive high ceiling at worse he is an upgrade from Amertey

I think Edwards will be tried as a rookie this year

Bradtke could be a bolter for rookie - good size and speed for modern day game - right age profile and presents as a very different type of forward to Logan, once developed could be a very good second or third foil - potentially very handy rookie pick up

Plus being from NSW - it adds something their instead of taking a punt on a Vic or WA or SA boy at a similar level of achievement and similar stage of development

Long term i would say Syd should aim to have at least a third to 40 % of the list nsw born players and spread across each position Eg mids talls forward back etc … that would be a ideal scenario

Knobel I like simply put - he has height and size - he is massive - you can’t train that - I think their is a outside possibility we take 3 rookies or have like Knobel Edwards as rookies and bradtke as cat B (not sure if that’s possible - don’t know how long in the game bradtke has been) - we might even take bradtke mid season

Barnett while the most advanced ruckman and a possibility for us - would be up against X factors and unique game breaking players who might add something dynamic to our exisiting time - for example George - he is a top 10 talent according to most but due to injuries could not play much - I would not be surprised if George goes top 20 and we are one of the clubs who could take a punt on him for 2024 onwards ..

 

[Shaq_01]

In 2023

We have clearly and the other kid (name escapes me) and possibly King in the rookie back end of the draft and the have the utility kid - gloater (I think that’s his name)

2024

We potentially have the big ruckman 204 cm or 206cm and we have Cochrane - 194cm as a 16 year old forward … this could be top 10 top 15 … but obviously 2 years out and trying to predict growth and development is essentially wishful thinking

 

[Shaq_01]

Hustwaite I believe will have potential to be a very good average player

But I don’t think he will add much to us and I don’t know if 15 is good place to draft him when at 15 you could pick someone who adds real difference Eg Keeler Cowan (2025 best 2022) Allen George (2025 possible best 2022)

As much as I like Cunningham and as much as he has been a loyal servant - if we take a Cowan or George

I cant see Cunningham surviving in 2025 - even next year he will be lucky to get 10 12 games

Cowan gives that speed power BUT has size and greater scope and flexibility - same with George potentially

Keeler by end of next year could be far more advanced than amertey

Is bigger and could be a good replacement for Reid

Next year one of Reid or Buddy is gone

So for us either draft now or trade

2025 - we could be after Saints King

And that could play a role in what we draft now

McLean I am a fan of - he is that big one grab player - poor man’s Hawkins … if only he was as Mobil as Hawkins

One on One in a marking contest he is very very hard to beat - that’s unique

Not used much in the modern game

But if you put it to him for a grab one on one in the goal square - he usually clunks those - that’s Been demonstrated a few times over the last 2 years and he has improved his mobility alot - he is a clever player with his body what let’s him down is he is not as athletic as he needs to be for the modern game or set up / style

But depending on the opposition defence and other forwards - he could have a place

Amartey is more gifted than McLean athletically but has done less in games at crucial moments - his rucking is not impactful .. so Keeler could be an upgrade to Amartey

 

[RUNVS]

In 2023

We have clearly and the other kid (name escapes me) and possibly King in the rookie back end of the draft and the have the utility kid - gloater (I think that’s his name)

2024

We potentially have the big ruckman 204 cm or 206cm and we have Cochrane - 194cm as a 16 year old forward … this could be top 10 top 15 … but obviously 2 years out and trying to predict growth and development is essentially wishful thinking

While we do have two Academy Kids next year who do look promising and one of them is an inside mid we can't rely on that as like you mentioned last year we all thought King was a sure thing to be drafted and now there is basically no chance he will be.

 

[Shaq_01]

While we do have two Academy Kids next year who do look promising and one of them is an inside mid we can't rely on that as like you mentioned last year we all thought King was a sure thing to be drafted and now there is basically no chance he will be.

Well the thing we have to remember is just cause they are from academy we don’t have to draft them if they don’t add something to the team

I would not be surprised if we don’t draft Clearly or Cabor (I think) unless we trade current players or long term injury / retirements

At some point their will be a situation where a top 30 academy kid is available and we don’t draft him because he is not required

 

[kelpie_X]

I think we will pick someone with two legs for our first pick, and our second pick will have two arms. Iknow, I'm going out on a limb here

 

[SwansProudly]

Hi Team

Long time reader (several years) first time contributor

Finally joined the forum and got around to it

So I been thinking about this draft …

In my opinion their are several ways we can go about this

Firstly I will start with the players I like

In no order

Cowan, Allen Humphrey Knobel Barnett George Edwards bradtke

I am not sold on hustwaite

Keeler I like but I would not draft him

I think this draft is far more important for us than many think

This is the draft we either get the talls right or we get the impact X factor players right

Cowan Allen Humphrey George can be impact players for us and can add a point of difference in a year or two

Allen could be that big athletic wing like a Blicavs in some ways - few years back Blicavs and Goodes use to have great battles … and maybe Allen can develop more into a current Blicavs minus the part time Ruck

Keeler could be a less talented buddy - that’s Keeler ceiling … obviously buddy is once a generational player .. and was drafted much higher and was more developed and advanced at 18 .. but Keeler has a massive high ceiling at worse he is an upgrade from Amertey

I think Edwards will be tried as a rookie this year

Bradtke could be a bolter for rookie - good size and speed for modern day game - right age profile and presents as a very different type of forward to Logan, once developed could be a very good second or third foil - potentially very handy rookie pick up

Plus being from NSW - it adds something their instead of taking a punt on a Vic or WA or SA boy at a similar level of achievement and similar stage of development

Long term i would say Syd should aim to have at least a third to 40 % of the list nsw born players and spread across each position Eg mids talls forward back etc … that would be a ideal scenario

Knobel I like simply put - he has height and size - he is massive - you can’t train that - I think their is a outside possibility we take 3 rookies or have like Knobel Edwards as rookies and bradtke as cat B (not sure if that’s possible - don’t know how long in the game bradtke has been) - we might even take bradtke mid season

Barnett while the most advanced ruckman and a possibility for us - would be up against X factors and unique game breaking players who might add something dynamic to our exisiting time - for example George - he is a top 10 talent according to most but due to injuries could not play much - I would not be surprised if George goes top 20 and we are one of the clubs who could take a punt on him for 2024 onwards ..

Welcome

 

[Deccas]

Second topic: pick trades I'd be interested in

1. Trading our second first rounder to Essendon for pick 22 and their future second (and maybe throwing in a little something extra to get the deal over the line)

2. Trading our second first rounder to Collingwood for their picks 25 & 27 (apparently they're interested to get a pick inside the top 20). Then we could hopefully get one of Keeler or Barnett and some other likely type that slides through e.g. Cowan, Weddle, Konstanty, Gruzewski, George.

****

What do you think?

I can't really see either of these happening. It's not worth it for Essendon or Collingwood to give up a whole mid 20s pick just to upgrade a pick 5 spots. We'd have to give up 42 or our future 3rd at least.


Loved the first half of the post. I'm hoping for Jefferson or Hayes but not gonna be upset when we don't get them.

 

[Ticky009]

Well the thing we have to remember is just cause they are from academy we don’t have to draft them if they don’t add something to the team

I would not be surprised if we don’t draft Clearly or Cabor (I think) unless we trade current players or long term injury / retirements

At some point their will be a situation where a top 30 academy kid is available and we don’t draft him because he is not required

Clearly is currently rated in 30's might come down if he improves next year. Might not.

Humphrey won't get through to us, he'll be gone in the top 10 which is a bloody shame as I really like him.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Hustwaite I believe will have potential to be a very good average player

But I don’t think he will add much to us and I don’t know if 15 is good place to draft him when at 15 you could pick someone who adds real difference Eg Keeler Cowan (2025 best 2022) Allen George (2025 possible best 2022)

As much as I like Cunningham and as much as he has been a loyal servant - if we take a Cowan or George

I cant see Cunningham surviving in 2025 - even next year he will be lucky to get 10 12 games

Cowan gives that speed power BUT has size and greater scope and flexibility - same with George potentially

Keeler by end of next year could be far more advanced than amertey

Is bigger and could be a good replacement for Reid

Next year one of Reid or Buddy is gone

So for us either draft now or trade

2025 - we could be after Saints King

And that could play a role in what we draft now

McLean I am a fan of - he is that big one grab player - poor man’s Hawkins … if only he was as Mobil as Hawkins

One on One in a marking contest he is very very hard to beat - that’s unique

Not used much in the modern game

But if you put it to him for a grab one on one in the goal square - he usually clunks those - that’s Been demonstrated a few times over the last 2 years and he has improved his mobility alot - he is a clever player with his body what let’s him down is he is not as athletic as he needs to be for the modern game or set up / style

But depending on the opposition defence and other forwards - he could have a place

Amartey is more gifted than McLean athletically but has done less in games at crucial moments - his rucking is not impactful .. so Keeler could be an upgrade to Amartey

Hi Shaq and welcome. Lots to like in that post, you've obviously given it a lot of thought. Here comes the "but"...
Hustwaite. Not sure why you say that. He seems to have a bit of the Pendles about him, creating time and space, and he hits targets time and again. I'm sure KB will be very sure about what he does or doesn't offer as he may fall right on our sweet spot.
Agree with you 100% on Allan. Don't know about George with so little recent exposed form.
Keeler is an interesting one as the "experts" vary quite a bit on where he should go. I certainly would not be unhappy if we took him though my preference is for Barnett as I see that as the greater need.
I too am a fan of McLean. He may not have the burst speed but he has a fair tank.
Who do you like with our third?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Hi Shaq and welcome. Lots to like in that post, you've obviously given it a lot of thought. Here comes the "but"...
Hustwaite. Not sure why you say that. He seems to have a bit of the Pendles about him, creating time and space, and he hits targets time and again. I'm sure KB will be very sure about what he does or doesn't offer as he may fall right on our sweet spot.
Agree with you 100% on Allan. Don't know about George with so little recent exposed form.
Keeler is an interesting one as the "experts" vary quite a bit on where he should go. I certainly would not be unhappy if we took him though my preference is for Barnett as I see that as the greater need.
I too am a fan of McLean. He may not have the burst speed but he has a fair tank.
Who do you like with our third?

Yeah I like Hustwaite, actually have a feeling he'll be the bolter and won't be available. Of all the talents in that say 9-16 range he has the biggest scope. I agree with your last post Oliver Hollands is the safest pick but he would be one I pass on. If Hustwaite is unavailable then I'd go Allen. I feel at 14 we need to take one with X factor, of course assuming Jed Busslinger is off the board and I assume he is, doubt he's lasting past the Dogs at worst. Jefferson isn't getting past Melbourne that to me seems an obvious pick for them. Do not want Keeler at all, I hope he's taken before our pick so I don't need to worry about it.

 

[Bloods86]

Yeah I like Hustwaite, actually have a feeling he'll be the bolter and won't be available. Of all the talents in that say 9-16 range he has the biggest scope. I agree with your last post Oliver Hollands is the safest pick but he would be one I pass on. If Hustwaite is unavailable then I'd go Allen. I feel at 14 we need to take one with X factor, of course assuming Jed Busslinger is off the board and I assume he is, doubt he's lasting past the Dogs at worst. Jefferson isn't getting past Melbourne that to me seems an obvious pick for them. Do not want Keeler at all, I hope he's taken before our pick so I don't need to worry about it.

Wouldn't be going Keeler with our first. But I'd be happy moving our 2nd (pick ~20) out by a few spots, to bring our 41 up, then picking Keeler up with the slightly downgraded pick (mid 20s ish). If we went up enough with pick 41 (maybe also a pick swap with a future), we might be able to get Gruzewski.

Agree on Hollands. I'd be OK with Allan with the second 1st rounder, I think he'll probably still be there. But if we rate him, wouldn't complain about getting him with the 1st.

 

[Shaq_01]

Hi Shaq and welcome. Lots to like in that post, you've obviously given it a lot of thought. Here comes the "but"...
Hustwaite. Not sure why you say that. He seems to have a bit of the Pendles about him, creating time and space, and he hits targets time and again. I'm sure KB will be very sure about what he does or doesn't offer as he may fall right on our sweet spot.
Agree with you 100% on Allan. Don't know about George with so little recent exposed form.
Keeler is an interesting one as the "experts" vary quite a bit on where he should go. I certainly would not be unhappy if we took him though my preference is for Barnett as I see that as the greater need.
I too am a fan of McLean. He may not have the burst speed but he has a fair tank.
Who do you like with our third?

Alywn or his bro or Munkara

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Wouldn't be going Keeler with our first. But I'd be happy moving our 2nd (pick ~20) out by a few spots, to bring our 41 up, then picking Keeler up with the slightly downgraded pick (mid 20s ish). If we went up enough with pick 41 (maybe also a pick swap with a future), we might be able to get Gruzewski.

Agree on Hollands. I'd be OK with Allan with the second 1st rounder, I think he'll probably still be there. But if we rate him, wouldn't complain about getting him with the 1st.

I don’t want Keeler at any first or second. He’s one bloke I hope another club takes. Just don’t rate him one single bit. At 43 maybe. If we want a ruck pick one, if we want a defender pick one. I definitely would not shift back to take Keeler! Would go for a small if we did that option.

 

[Shaq_01]

Hi Shaq and welcome. Lots to like in that post, you've obviously given it a lot of thought. Here comes the "but"...
Hustwaite. Not sure why you say that. He seems to have a bit of the Pendles about him, creating time and space, and he hits targets time and again. I'm sure KB will be very sure about what he does or doesn't offer as he may fall right on our sweet spot.
Agree with you 100% on Allan. Don't know about George with so little recent exposed form.
Keeler is an interesting one as the "experts" vary quite a bit on where he should go. I certainly would not be unhappy if we took him though my preference is for Barnett as I see that as the greater need.
I too am a fan of McLean. He may not have the burst speed but he has a fair tank.
Who do you like with our third?

Or Lemmey

Has too much potential talent to go in the 40s

Most likely will

If he turns out .. will be a massive bargain

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Alywn or his bro or Munkara

We wouldn’t get them anyway. Tied to other clubs and we aren’t picking Munkara at pick 20 or whatever. Our next is 43, he’s tied to another club after pick 40.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Or Lemmey

Has too much potential talent to go in the 40s

Most likely will

If he turns out .. will be a massive bargain

Good shout on Lemmey wouldn’t be disappointed if that’s our third pick