Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[Blue_Fusion]

No issues with getting O'Meara but not at the expense of #5. The kid is a gun but hasn't played for two years; dealing out our 1st rounder is a risk.
Someone cited the Hawks trading 2 1st rounders for an injury prone Burgoyne. He had some minor injuries but didn't miss two consecutive season and had many runs on the board, to mix sporting metaphors, having played 157 games in 8 seasons with Port.

Don't think it was 2 first rounders either. I'm pretty sure it was Mark Williams and pick #9. Could be wrong, but that's how I remember it. It was a deal involving 4 clubs too if I recall correctly.

Hawks at the time could take the risk too. They didn't have a list like ours. They had recently won a flag and were looking for players that would get them over the line. We're nowhere near that position.

 

[La Dispute]

Was a while back. You'd have to go through the old bluemour discussion thread.

Trade whispers from Carlton supporters?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Like who? Not sure that many hardened, quality players will be wanting to go there.

Yep big flaw in their plan, honestly cant think of anyone who would want to go.

 

[Blue Baggers]

Looking forward to adding some seriously talented youth to the list and seeing the last year of some horrendous contracts coming to an end. Think about the cap space and the players we can attract in our final year of the 66 game reset once we have our structures set.. Exciting times ahead

 

[ferrisb]

Lucky I'm not a mod or I'd ban all you cluster****s permanently.

You're not a mod Shan, just odd.

Cmon buddy, we've been through this...

 

[ParapMarkets]

Hibberd was always leaving the "free'd up" coin would have be already spent on Hurley.

If they can "find the cash" we can find the cash. I'd be physically ill like ol mate Mario from Doncaster if Jaeger pulled on a * guernsey.

* have forked out huuuuuge money on both Hurley and Hooker this year. We would have more up our sleeve than those scumbags.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Looking forward to adding some seriously talented youth to the list and seeing the last year of some horrendous contracts coming to an end. Think about the cap space and the players we can attract in our final year of the 66 game reset once we have our structures set.. Exciting times ahead

We were playing roughly 8-10 kids this year every game. I'm very happy to see the likes of Everitt moved on, and with Walker retiring and more compeition for the spots that have been held by White, Armfield and a few others.

Next year I think we'll be averaging 10-13 kids every game. Very exciting times ahead.

 

[ParapMarkets]

From where? I haven't seen anything apart from this thread.

I'm open to the idea, but he'd have to want to leave; his age profile, form, leadership and contribution to the club are worth my than the pick we'd get for him. We do however have a plethora of better players either immediately (Simpson, Docherty) or will be in the future (Plowman, Byrne).

I'm pretty sure I heard a reporter mention it as well. Something seems fishy to me, he's still not re-signed and I just get the feeling SOS sees some currency in him for our rebuild.

He isn't the type of character you would like to lose but we just don't have all that many players with currency, if he could go to a place like the swans (who could do with another good kick from half back) and have a chance at a flag, I think I would say good luck to him.

 

[Dramoth]

Bucket loads of cash? Theyve just signed Hurley et al up back on big contracts to get them to sign back on and not leave on masse, they also have to get money for Merret and co, they wont have big cash, i'd say they be close to or on the cap for next year

They float a few websites and she'll be apples mate! After all, they're Essendope... They don't need no stinking salary cap.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Not sure I made any predictions there Prem. If anything, I'm asking you, as you seem to know more than I do about JOM and his worth, when and how will we ever be "well placed enough list-wise".

But I'm just putting forward a personal opinion, I'm not overly interested in your mocking tone...

There's a lot of factors but the main one is luck. We need to be lucky with whichever players we trade in, players we draft and development needs to be done properly.

We've cut Foster, Dick and Wood. We will also eventually be getting rid of:

Thomas, Kerridge, White, Rowe, Philips, Lamb, DVR, Armfield, Jaksch, Jones, Tutt, Smith, Whiley, Graham, Wright and Gorringe.

We'll obviously have to hang onto a few of those guys before replacing them in the next 4-5 years.

Here's what I think we can/should do:

Casboult + Pick #41 to Bris for 2017 2nd rounder
Bris 2017 2nd rounder + Carlton 2017 2nd rounder to GWS for Marchbank, Tomlinson and Pick #15
Kreuzer + Everitt + Pick #48 to GCS for Pick #21 + #27
Touhy to Sydney for Pick #17
Picks #17 + #23 to North for North 2017 1st rounder (bit of a risk, but I think it will be a top 10 pick next year)

Go to the 2016 draft with: Picks #5, #15, #21 and #27

Then next year during trade period, offer Carlton 2018 first rounder + steak knives to someone for another 2017 top 10 pick.

Go to the 2017 draft with: Pick#6? (Guessing our pick will be around here), Pick #7/8 (North's pick) Pick #9/10 (from trading our 2018 first pick)

We should have a good strike rate with these picks. That's 7 young talented players from drafting in the next 2 years. Add Marchbank and Tomlinson, brings it up to 9 young talented players.

We currently have 9 young talented players imo:

Cripps, Docherty, Weitering, C.Curnow, McKay, Silvagni, Plowman, Byrne & Cuningham

Jury still out on Buckley, Boekhorst and Sumner for mine.

All up 18 talented youngsters by the time 2018 season begins. We will have Simpson, Murphy, Ed Curnow and Gibbs as the senior players along with Cripps, Doc and Plow which will form the leadership group.

2018 draft we are poised to grab Ben Silvagni, another talented KPP. Brings us to 19 talented young players and another rookie we have now is JGM, I'm confident that he'll develop well.

With Silvagni's experience in the draft and under Bolton's tutelage, I'm confident that the youngsters we draft will reach their potential.

Give them a few years together and once they develop then we can start giving away our first round picks for the exciting available talent.

 

[4thchicken]

So Murphy for pick 6? Hahahahahahahahahahaha.
JOM for 2017 1st? GC might but i wouldn't.
Everitt, Graham, 41 and 48 for 8 and 22? Hahahahahahahahahaha

you can't look at such trades in isolation.

1. Given injury queries, GCS is highly unlikely to get what they want for omeara - i.e. 2 X first round picks
2. Fighting words from cochrane, they will be wanting to be seen to have some sort of 'win' - securing a gun mid/club captain gives them that -> see last year griffen + pick 6 for boyd. Injury free, omeara is easily worth a boyd type deal but he hasn't played for 2 years. A blockbuster multi deal trade may enable GCS to be seen to have a win.
3. GCS have way too many early picks this year but will be wanting early picks - this places greater value on future picks -> see GWS trade last year where cat's 1st pick which given dangerfield acquisition, would have been expected in the late teens for pick 8 last year. Under that scenario, a pure 2017 first round from blues (likely top 10) for a 2016 1st round + change isn't too far off - particularly given the excess picks.
4. GCS were heavily into everitt last year but the blues decided not to deal - http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-02-06/blue-sees-the-sunny-side - depending on which article you read, this interest was between a 1st round to mid 2nd round. GCS will be in need of mature players this upcoming draft period so there is a possibility that they may come knocking again.
5. Trade provides GCS a net -1 in draft selections. Potentially important given new AFL rules

At the end of the day, GCS will have limited options re: o'meara given that he specifically wants to come back to melbourne.

1. essendon -> would never trade pick 1 due to PSD option. So its either pick 19 (too low), players (unlikely given post-drugs season) or a future pick. 2017 first round might work but GCS would want more.
2. Pies - No 1st round picks to trade so could only offer players. Pies want to push up ladder next year so cant see buckley offering sufficient players to satisfy GCS - if he did and omeara couldn't get onto the park, Buckley would have a crazy voss legacy.
3. saints - possible but freeman trade might see them a bit more gun shy. Given carlisle trade last year, best they could offer is pick + player
4. hawks - well placed and could offer 2 X first picks (both expected late first round) or more likely,2017 late first round + players (in which case, Murphy + blues 2017 first round would trump most conceivable hawks offers). Also depends on how hard they go for mitchell (greater list need, lower risk).
5. demons - potential to trade future pick + players but unlikely to match murphy + 2017 1st round value of blues offer.
6 . north - not in the picture
7. richmond - heavily involved in prestia. Unlikely to have remaining trade currency to get omeara and is probably too high risk for Dimma.
8. dogs - Could only give up 1 first rounder but they probably DO have the players to satisfy GCS. Given boyd's salary, I suspect cap space would be the issue here (unless they trade stringer - highly unlikely)
9. cats - no first round picks tradable. Unlikely to have sufficient players to give up.

Back to the trade, it all comes down to perspective. Pitching murphy + everitt + graham + 41 + 48 + 2017 1st round for pick -> JOM + 6 + 8 + 22 differently...
1. 2017 first round -> pick 6 + approx 500 points based on diff b/n cats expected finishing position post-dangerfield trade last year (contending in 2016) and blues expected ladder position at end of 2017 (missing finals)
2. everitt + graham -> pick 22 (based on previous interest in everitt for ≥ mid 2nd in 2015, excess picks + need for mature players
3. 41+48 -> approx 700 points

Is murphy + approx 1200 points (approx pick 13) worth pick 9 + JOM? - given the lack of other trading partners + the need to be seen to 'win/make a stand' it probably isn't that far off

 

[TheCoach16]

There's a lot of factors but the main one is luck. We need to be lucky with whichever players we trade in, players we draft and development needs to be done properly.

We've cut Foster, Dick and Wood. We will also eventually be getting rid of:

Thomas, Kerridge, White, Rowe, Philips, Lamb, DVR, Armfield, Jaksch, Jones, Tutt, Smith, Whiley, Graham, Wright and Gorringe.

We'll obviously have to hang onto a few of those guys before replacing them in the next 4-5 years.

Here's what I think we can/should do:

Casboult + Pick #41 to Bris for 2017 2nd rounder
Bris 2017 2nd rounder + Carlton 2017 2nd rounder to GWS for Marchbank, Tomlinson and Pick #15
Kreuzer + Everitt + Pick #48 to GCS for Pick #21 + #27
Touhy to Sydney for Pick #17
Picks #17 + #23 to North for North 2017 1st rounder (bit of a risk, but I think it will be a top 10 pick next year)

Go to the 2016 draft with: Picks #5, #15, #21 and #27

Then next year during trade period, offer Carlton 2018 first rounder + steak knives to someone for another 2017 top 10 pick.

Go to the 2017 draft with: Pick#6? (Guessing our pick will be around here), Pick #7/8 (North's pick) Pick #9/10 (from trading our 2018 first pick)

We should have a good strike rate with these picks. That's 7 young talented players from drafting in the next 2 years. Add Marchbank and Tomlinson, brings it up to 9 young talented players.

We currently have 9 young talented players imo:

Cripps, Docherty, Weitering, C.Curnow, McKay, Silvagni, Plowman, Byrne & Cuningham

Jury still out on Buckley, Boekhorst and Sumner for mine.

All up 18 talented youngsters by the time 2018 season begins. We will have Simpson, Murphy, Ed Curnow and Gibbs as the senior players along with Cripps, Doc and Plow which will form the leadership group.

2018 draft we are poised to grab Ben Silvagni, another talented KPP. Brings us to 19 talented young players and another rookie we have now is JGM, I'm confident that he'll develop well.

With Silvagni's experience in the draft and under Bolton's tutelage, I'm confident that the youngsters we draft will reach their potential.

Give them a few years together and once they develop then we can start giving away our first round picks for the exciting available talent.

Holy crap ! That looks like hard work and requiring lots of patience.
I miss the good old days when we could just open the chequebook and buy the best players in the country...

 

[Tambourine]

Has the silly season already begun?? God help us...god help us all.

 

[4thchicken]

Here's what I think we can/should do:

Casboult + Pick #41 to Bris for 2017 2nd rounder
Bris 2017 2nd rounder + Carlton 2017 2nd rounder to GWS for Marchbank, Tomlinson and Pick #15
Kreuzer + Everitt + Pick #48 to GCS for Pick #21 + #27
Touhy to Sydney for Pick #17
Picks #17 + #23 to North for North 2017 1st rounder (bit of a risk, but I think it will be a top 10 pick next year)

Go to the 2016 draft with: Picks #5, #15, #21 and #27

Then next year during trade period, offer Carlton 2018 first rounder + steak knives to someone for another 2017 top 10 pick.

Go to the 2017 draft with: Pick#6? (Guessing our pick will be around here), Pick #7/8 (North's pick) Pick #9/10 (from trading our 2018 first pick)

Overall not bad though
1. I'm not sure we can sign + trade casboult - a few years ago a rule was in place for that (may have been rescinded?) - we could still get that 2017 2nd round if we package 41 + 48 + graham (though would be more than happy to package thomas instead + pay salary if they wanted leadership if it meant we got something back the other way...)
2. 2 X 2017 2nd rounders for GWS trade - I like it. I don't think Pick 7 would be out of the question if we went Bris 2017 2nd rounder + Carlton 2017 2nd rounder + 2016 2nd rounder (23) to GWS for Marchbank, Tomlinson and Pick #7
3. kreuzer + everitt -> aim for a top 10 pick (GCS have 2, expecting another one from richmond for prestia + possibly more for omeara). Worst case, would push for picks 21 +22.
4. Agree re: Touhy - there is also the option of trading for the swans 2017 first pick
5. North trade - They know they need to rebuild so will need picks. I'd be more aggressive and push for touhy trade value + 21 + 22 -> north 1st picks from 2016 + 2017 (assuming worst case for kreuzer/everitt deal). Best case would be top 10 pick for kreuzer + everitt + a straight swap 2016 swans 1st for 2017 north 1st (or from another team that wants/needs extra first round this year)

Using your strategy, best case scenario would be
1. 41 + 48 + graham -> brisbane 2017 2nd rounder
2. Bris 2017 2nd rounder + Carlton 2017 2nd rounder + 2016 2nd rounder (23) to GWS for Marchbank, Tomlinson and Pick #7
3. kreuzer + everitt -> aim for pick 8
4. Touhy - swans first pick
5. swans 1st pick + 21 + 22 -> north 1st picks from 2016 + 2017

Net draft selections
2016 - 5, 7, 8, north's 1st round (+ marchbank/tomlinson)
2017 - blues and north 1st round (+ another top 10 pick via 2018 1st round trade)

 

[drewmont4]

I think we should try trade for kieran collins from the dogs anyone else agree he and weit played at tac level and looked good together but any other trades we should go for

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I think we should try trade for kieran collins from the dogs anyone else agree he and weit played at tac level and looked good together but any other trades we should go for

Collins is a dud

 

[La Dispute]

I think we should try trade for kieran collins from the dogs anyone else agree he and weit played at tac level and looked good together but any other trades we should go for

Far too slow for AFL level.

Was good initiative from the Bulldogs to trade for an extra pick; they recognised that a few players would slip through, but I feel Collins slipped for a reason.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Has the silly season already begun?? God help us...god help us all.

The silly season hasn't begun, it never ends around here.

 

[Tony Lynn 15]

With Dick and Wood now both off the list 90% of my material just walked out the door!! I need us to at least recruit a Tockley or Spadger otherwise I may not be on next season!

 

[LanceRomance]

We'll have more next year when Daisy has gone...hopefully.

why do you keep saying he'll be gone?

 

[slashin_velvet]

With Dick and Wood now both off the list 90% of my material just walked out the door!! I need us to at least recruit a Tockley or Spadger otherwise I may not be on next season!

Maybe we can recruit Mason Cox?

Alternatively, there must be a John Thomas in a country league somewhere who we can pick up as a mature age recruit.

 

[Iamcarlton]

No. Taking a punt on Butcher as a DFA would have more potential upside.

I can picture our supporters jumping off the southern stand top deck when cas lines up puts it out on the full then a couple of minutes later butcher takes a speccy and does the same .

 

[ferrisb]

We were playing roughly 8-10 kids this year every game. I'm very happy to see the likes of Everitt moved on, and with Walker retiring and more compeition for the spots that have been held by White, Armfield and a few others.

Next year I think we'll be averaging 10-13 kids every game. Very exciting times ahead.

Post needs more charts...

 

[ctacp]

With Dick and Wood now both off the list 90% of my material just walked out the door!! I need us to at least recruit a Tockley or Spadger otherwise I may not be on next season!

Are any Moysten's available?

 

[Iamcarlton]

Bidding wars don't exist any more Prem, the AFLPA killed them a decade ago.

Jaeger will nominate his club and it will get done.

And if it's a cash bidding war, we can easily cover that. We're well under cap.

Hasnt the club taken the policy that we arent going to get into bidding wars money wise for players ? Using prestia and carlisle last year as an example . In all likelihood we wont be in the race for omeara for that reason , omeara will want big money injury or no injury player managers make sure of that .