List Mgmt. 2020 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals - Part 2 (The 2020 Draft)

[replicant]

It’ll end up being better than that with other academy bids as well as our own in Campbell will improve the value of our later picks.

Yeah, i've got a spreadsheet where i work out the picks moving, and i've taken into account out picks moving from JUH and Campbell. But the problem is it's hard to factor in where bids will come for the Port Adelaide and Collingwood priority kids. If they come before Gulden, our later picks get a little more valuable.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Yeah, i've got a spreadsheet where i work out the picks moving, and i've taken into account out picks moving from JUH and Campbell. But the problem is it's hard to factor in where bids will come for the Port Adelaide and Collingwood priority kids. If they come before Gulden, our later picks get a little more valuable.

Reef McInness will go before Gulden lock that in

 

[replicant]

Reef McInness will go before Gulden lock that in

He's an odd one. Collingwood have 14, 16, 65, 70.

If he was bid at say 17, which is after their two first picks, they wipe out the rest of this draft and severely compromise next year with carryover points.

But it would be a waste for Collingwood to just take him with one of their picks, as they would lose the 20% discount.

It's an awkward one for them.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

He's an odd one. Collingwood have 14, 16, 65, 70.

If he was bid at say 17, which is after their two first picks, they wipe out the rest of this draft and severely compromise next year with carryover points.

But it would be a waste for Collingwood to just take him with one of their picks, as they would lose the 20% discount.

It's an awkward one for them.

Thinking he’s bid either before their second or third somewhere in that range. So they will have a live pick at 14, match. Then their next one moves into the 20’s.

 

[replicant]

Thinking he’s bid either before their second or third somewhere in that range. So they will have a live pick at 14, match. Then their next one moves into the 20’s.

After Campbell and JUH are bid, they end up with 16 (1067) and 18 (985).

If McInness was bid at 17, then they need 820 to match. That leaves 165 pts from pick 18, which is equivalent to pick 59. So they don't get another good pick.

If he's not bid until 19, then they end up with almost 500 points carryover defecit.

It's almost better for them to have him bid on at 17, and if not, they should just take him at 18 anyway.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

After Campbell and JUH are bid, they end up with 16 (1067) and 18 (985).

If McInness was bid at 17, then they need 820 to match. That leaves 165 pts from pick 18, which is equivalent to pick 59. So they don't get another good pick.

If he's not bid until 19, then they end up with almost 500 points carryover defecit.

It's almost better for them to have him bid on at 17, and if not, they should just take him at 18 anyway.

He’s one of these mid range ones that is so tricky for the club. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Pies trade one of those picks down

 

[Superstar swan]

I don’t understand how any can criticise the club here. They drafted the kid, gave him the resources to get the most out of himself and paid him as a professions footballer. By accepting the contract , Taylor committed to improving, doing what’s best for the team and conducting himself as a professional , just like he is paid to do. He obviously didn’t have the capacity for that, let himself, his family and the club down. The club owes him nothing , he is the one that failed to honour his commitments not the club

 

[RUNVS]

I don’t understand how any can criticise the club here. They drafted the kid, gave him the resources to get the most out of himself and paid him as a professions footballer. By accepting the contract , Taylor committed to improving, doing what’s best for the team and conducting himself as a professional , just like he is paid to do. He obviously didn’t have the capacity for that, let himself, his family and the club down. The club owes him nothing , he is the one that failed to honour his commitments not the club

Not just failing to meet the commitments to the club, but he also failed to meet basic standards of society.

 

[mikey_san]

Get excited !!

https://www.afl.com.au/video/526042...ramType:programs&references=AFL_COMPETITION:1

Don't need him advertised right now. He shoulda added something about not wanting to move and coming straight back home...

 

[caesar88]

Anywhere from 25 onwards is about his right range though. If someone wants him at 16, go for it.

I don't agree entirely. I think we should take Gulden regardless of the deficit. He is a prospect I rate as top 20, and his local status/commitment to us bumps him up even further in my eyes. That's a privilege we would be foolish to knock back.

The one exception I would have is if we think there is someone better than Gulden - like a Neale, or even a Trew - that we could get with one of those picks needed for Gulden. In which case I think it would be foolish to prioritise Errol over them, much as I do rate him.

But that scenario is unlikely, given there aren't gonna be many who are better than Errol at those picks we have.

 

[Kapers]

I'm still in the Phillips camp, mainly cause of his burst speed, but gosh, DGB is a close second for me.

Loved his interview, really love his attitude towards the game, not many would say that they want to be the best afl player.

Class of 2020: Denver Grainger-Barras' push to be the best player in the AFL

The best key defender in this year's draft pool speaks about what motivates and drives him to succeed

www.afl.com.au

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I don't agree entirely. I think we should take Gulden regardless of the deficit. He is a prospect I rate as top 20, and his local status/commitment to us bumps him up even further in my eyes. That's a privilege we would be foolish to knock back.

The one exception I would have is if we think there is someone better than Gulden - like a Neale, or even a Trew - that we could get with one of those picks needed for Gulden. In which case I think it would be foolish to prioritise Errol over them, much as I do rate him.

But that scenario is unlikely, given there aren't gonna be many who are better than Errol at those picks we have.

To a degree so log as there is no deficit in 2021, especially in the first round. He's an early second rounder.

 

[Tedeski]

Based on that Kinnear Beatson interview their focus is getting Campbell and they'll take Gulden if they can but aren't prepared to into deficit for him. That was my take away. It will be interesting.

We'll take them both. Make no mistake. We won't spilt them. Best of mates from that clip & waste of time going through the whole exercise of an academy if we aren't prepared to invest in players that will be unlikely to leave our club before their prime, as would be the case with a draftee next year who may come from Victoria. Take who we know now.

 

[TheMase]

Fox and Gray set to return

An AFL rule change has enabled Sydney to list Robbie Fox and Sam Gray as rookies, without going through the draft process.

www.sydneyswans.com.au

Swans prelist Fox and Gray onto rookie list

 

[caesar88]

To a degree so log as there is no deficit in 2021, especially in the first round. He's an early second rounder.

I don't give a shit about the 2021 draft at this point. Whatever our draft haul is next year, I highly doubt it's going to be as good as two top 10 guns (Pick 3 & Campbell), a top 20 gun (Gulden), and, if theMase is a prophet, an extra pick somewhere in there as a bonus. So we might as well try and go all-in this year while we're in this position, and maximise our chances, like we did in 2018.

Deal with the ramifications of this great draft haul when they come, but let's make hay while the sun shines.

If you don't listen to me, listen to the great Dewey Finn née Ned Schneebly (actually it's 'Schnee-blay'):

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Expected, although I'm not sure what the point is there, however both give us some depth

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I wouldn't trade our 2021 first at all, think it will be a lot more valuable next year.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Someone really needs to get Campbell to drop a tweet or an insta-snap-a-thing saying that "he visited Victoria a while back and really didn't like the place".

 

[tombomb]

I genuinely believe the club was prepared to stick by him if he received a non custodial sentence and he could prove to the club that he wanted to change his ways.

You can read into a press release plenty of ways, but I see it as Elijah just wasn’t prepared to come back and win the respect of his teammates so we mutually agreed to part ways.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

As soon as his girlfriend posted that video online, he was never going to play another game for the club. Wouldn't have mattered what he was prepared to do to make amends.

I don't necessarily agree with that, presumption of innocence etc, but the club wasn't going to be seen to any way excusing violence towards women.

 

[Bloods86]

You don't agree with Elijah himself, who pled guilty? Imo I don't even think that should be a prerequisite for us cutting him, but he's guilty full stop, and not sure why we should have considered keeping him.

Anyway, happy we now have the extra spot to plan for.

As soon as his girlfriend posted that video online, he was never going to play another game for the club. Wouldn't have mattered what he was prepared to do to make amends.

I don't necessarily agree with that, presumption of innocence etc, but the club wasn't going to be seen to any way excusing violence towards women.

 

[The Gong]

Someone really needs to get Campbell to drop a tweet or an insta-snap-a-thing saying that "he visited Victoria a while back and really didn't like the place".

It's called "The Dunkley"

 

[Tedeski]

I don’t think we will need to.

I think we have every intention on taking Gulden almost anywhere (within reason) and I think Beatsons comments are to ward off clubs thinking they can bid him at 12 and we will significantly overpay.

Without playing any footy, Campbell has gone from a kid rated 12 to 8 to now top 5 & by the time draft day come he'll probably be bid on by North at 2.
Mills all over again is how I'm thinking. The other clubs are making us pay big time for the Academy, but I say f er k em & pay what we have to. We have access to such talent & perhaps got away with under paying for Blakey so swings & roundabouts. I am personally happy if we go into deficit next year to get both boys.

 

[Tedeski]

Swans have notified the Bulldogs that we will place a bid on JUH with pick 3.
Noice!

 

[Donza]

I wouldn't trade our 2021 first at all, think it will be a lot more valuable next year.

pick 18?

 

[kickthething]

I don't agree entirely. I think we should take Gulden regardless of the deficit. He is a prospect I rate as top 20, and his local status/commitment to us bumps him up even further in my eyes. That's a privilege we would be foolish to knock back.

The one exception I would have is if we think there is someone better than Gulden - like a Neale, or even a Trew - that we could get with one of those picks needed for Gulden. In which case I think it would be foolish to prioritise Errol over them, much as I do rate him.

But that scenario is unlikely, given there aren't gonna be many who are better than Errol at those picks we have.

I still feel we rate Gulden much higher than other cubs. We will get him without having to match anything imo.