24/11/17 6pm National Draft: Picks 47, 51, 58, 60 + 61

[RussellEbertHandball]

Ah Chee to GC.

Motlop to Port.

Ablett to Cats.

1 is a free agent, 1 is out of contract and 1 is still in contract at the end of the season. If that is the actual player movement Geelong are going to have to give up a lot of picks because we don't have to offer anything for Motlop, unless he demands we do the right thing by them.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Quite possibly the deal is Motlop to Port (free agent) and Ablett to Geelong for whatever the AFL give Geelong as compo.

Would Motlop get more than a second round pick which would make it around pick 33 if Geelong finish 4th. An end of 1st round pick would be around 19-21 range depending on other compo picks. I think GC will want more than that.

 

[CharlieKelly]

Could we get one or possibly two second round draft picks from Gold Coast?

They've got one first rounder, a top 5 pick, then they have four in the second round, one original pick and three others which were traded to them from Hawthorn, Fremantle and Richmond, and no notable Academy talent coming through.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

That great website draftguru.com has a new page a provisional draft order for 2017 taking into account the ladder this week and traded away 2017 picks last year.
https://www.draftguru.com.au/years/2017/provisional-draft-order

If you click on Port's page this is the history of who has been drafted at the picks we provisionally have at the moment.
https://www.draftguru.com.au/search/picks/31+49+67+86

 

[CharlieKelly]

within the first round, Patrick Naish will probably only cost Richmond one of their two first round picks, at most, Connor Ballenden will probably only cost Brisbane their first pick in the second round

the only real factor with Port's current first pick would be what compensation other clubs get for free agents

 

[vozzon]

Are they areas of need though?

Currently if Ryder goes down we're rolling with The Soulless One or zero gamer Frampton. If Dixon goes down it's a 28 year old Eddy whose apparently not even fit enough for the big time.

So I'd suggest we have a greater need for some quality talls and by some margin too.

I completely agree, but they will be impossible to replace but feel like those young guys just have to step up.

Unless we go for casboult which prob isnt the best idea. Have a feeling we would be looking at lycett from WC.

i still think rocky and motlop would be good gets.

 

[Needs Gravy]

That great website draftguru.com has a new page a provisional draft order for 2017 taking into account the ladder this week and traded away 2017 picks last year.
https://www.draftguru.com.au/years/2017/provisional-draft-order

If you click on Port's page this is the history of who has been drafted at the picks we provisionally have at the moment.
https://www.draftguru.com.au/search/picks/31+49+67+86

safe to say our current pick numbers are overdue to deliver some quality.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

safe to say our current pick numbers are overdue to deliver some quality.

A pick in the low 30's should produce a decent player and the odd champion. A pick in the high 40's not so much comes of them with anything over 60 or so games a bonus. Picks in the mid 60's and mid 80's is a crapshoot
https://www.draftguru.com.au/picks

 

[Peck]

Are they areas of need though?

Currently if Ryder goes down we're rolling with The Soulless One or zero gamer Frampton. If Dixon goes down it's a 28 year old Eddy whose apparently not even fit enough for the big time.

So I'd suggest we have a greater need for some quality talls and by some margin too.

 

[DazzaTys]

What about a look at McVeigh? Quality player but also would be a great mentor for the young blokes. Played in a very successful era.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Dave Omsby]

I hope we don't Rock the Casboult .

 

[viperjnr]

I completely agree, but they will be impossible to replace but feel like those young guys just have to step up.

Unless we go for casboult which prob isnt the best idea. Have a feeling we would be looking at lycett from WC.

i still think rocky and motlop would be good gets.

Rocky and Motlop will be great gets, especially as they are free agents

Casboult wants too much money anyway and the guy cant kick, prefer to see Marshall get a go which will help him improve over the next season or 2

 

[Portology]

I see Geelong are also holding off offering Daniel Menzel any contract longer than 1 year, and his manager is linking that to the Ablett speculation rather than to the fragile cords that hold his knee together.

Makes two clubs seemingly looking for some "upgrades" on the HFF, but the drums beat louder at Geelong because of the higher profile players involved I guess. If you're Geelong you may see a year or two of a relatively cut-rate Ablett being better value in general than making a barely thinkable play for Martin or slightly more thinkable play for a Rockliff. Disclaimer: no celery cap trolling intended!

Compare Geelong publicly shopping Motlop, and 'shopping-by-neglect'-ing Menzel, seemingly to help get a favorite son and champion home for a farewell tour, with our out-of-contract HFF stocks: Monfries, White, Young, Palmer... Arch, Amon and Krak in the mix too. It's hard to imagine we aren't already set on making at least three, probably four and maybe five changes from that group. Not even ruthless, just sensible really.

If the speculation is correct re Ken's mind having been "changed for him" post Showdown debacle, it suggests Gus and White's papers are now well and truly marked. "Melt night" tonight may tell us more. A debut for Lienart will be a bit of 'line-art' in the sand, a recall for Young could be 'Ken being Ken' or window shopping of him, a last chance for Krak or even Toumpas to prove themselves worthy of 2018 AFL depth would be something else.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Chris Mcdermott is suggesting Jack Watts to the Power (behind the Tiser paywall).

 

[Visenfest]

Chris Mcdermott is suggesting Jack Watts to the Power (behind the Tiser paywall).

Is he a free agent? If we had to trade, he would probably cost a fair bit.

 

[Portology]

Chris Mcdermott is suggesting Jack Watts to the Power (behind the Tiser paywall).

electricity joke?

 

[Boxx]

I'd take watts if he is a free agent!

Or

How about trade Jacko for Him?

 

[Coobk001]

Thought I'd take a look at last years trades now that we're guaranteed to finish 8th at absolute worst.

Trade with Brisbane & GC.

BEFORE DRAFT:
OUT - 2017 1st Round Pick + Pick 67
IN - Pick 19 & 30.

• Port needed to finish 10th or better for the trade to have a NET GAIN based on the Draft Value Index.
  • Finish 8th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 58
  • Finish 7th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 53
  • Finish 6th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 49
  • Finish 5th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 45
  • Finish 4th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 42
  • Finish 3rd - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 40
  • Finish 2nd - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 37
  • Finish 1st - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 35

• This all considers Pick 67 which we were never going to use, so it effectively became a NET GAIN when we finished above 11th, whilst the net gain value essentially would've improved by 2 to 3 picks for every finishing position.

AFTER DRAFT: (Considering the positions lost due to Academy or F/S bidding)
OUT - 2017 1st Round Pick + Pick 62
IN - Pick 21 & Pick 32

• NET GAIN Achieved when we finish 8th or above. Regardless of any extra shifting that could happen in the 2017 draft.
  • Finish 8th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 73
  • Finish 7th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 67
  • Finish 6th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 62
  • Finish 5th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 58
  • Finish 4th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 54
  • Finish 3rd - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 51
  • Finish 2nd - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 48
  • Finish 1st - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 45

• NOTE - This does not consider any alterations that'll happen due to FA Compensation or F/S Picks this year
• Again we wouldn't have used pick 62, so that would've made our net gain 4 to 6 picks higher for every finishing position.

Trade with Sydney

BEFORE DRAFT
OUT - Pick 9, 19 & 49
IN - Pick 14, 17, 31

• Port gained on this trade the equivalent of pick 66, in terms of draft pick value.

AFTER DRAFT
OUT - Pick 11, 21 & 48
IN - Pick 16, 18, 33

• Port gained on this trade the equivalent of pick 64, in terms of draft pick value.

2016 Total Trade Period Profit (Based on AFTER 2016 Draft):

• Finish 8th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 63
• Finish 7th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 58
• Finish 6th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 53
• Finish 5th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 50
• Finish 4th - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 46
• Finish 3rd - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 43
• Finish 2nd - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 41
• Finish 1st - NET GAIN VALUE = Pick 39
• 2017 Pick slips by 1 = Pick 37
• 2017 Pick slips by 2 = Pick 35

If Our 2017 1st Pick (Now Brisbane) slips down 1 pick, our position just effectively slides down, ie. If we finish 8th the gain would be 58 from the original finish 7th.





TL;DR - We've officially won out slightly on both of our trades, in terms of draft pick value, and in fact it is likely that in total by the end of the 2017 draft we would've profited by the equivalent of about a 3rd round pick and hopefully we've put that to great use with the group we brought in through the 2016 Draft.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

OFF-SEASON KEY DATES

Tuesday October 3 to Friday October 6 — AFL Draft Combine

Friday October 6 — AFL restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period begins

Monday October 9, 9am — AFL Trade Period begins

Saturday October 14 — South Australian Draft Combine

Sunday October 15 — West Australian Draft Combine

Sunday October 15, 5pm — Close of AFL restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period

Wednesday October 18 — AFL restricted free agency matching offer three-day period ends

Thursday October 19, 2pm — AFL Trade Period closes

Wednesday November 1 — AFL delisted player free agency period (1) begins

Wednesday November 8 — AFL delisted player free agency period (1) closes

Friday November 10 — AFL delisted player free agency period (2) begins

Friday November 17, 5pm — AFL delisted player free agency period (2) closes

Friday November 24 — AFL National Draft

Saturday November 25 — AFL delisted player free agency period (3) begins

Sunday November 26, 2pm — AFL delisted player free agency period (3) closes

Monday November 27 — AFL Pre-Season and Rookie Drafts

Wednesday November 29, 2pm — Final AFL club list lodgement

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/ke...d/news-story/253d3f43355a5520920c5ae316cf097e

 

[JUSTWORK]

Barrett said on the Footy Show both Motlop and Menzel likley to go in order to get Ablett, no suggestion of where...

I wonder what the chances of us landing both ?

 

[powermacs]

Barrett said on the Footy Show both Motlop and Menzel likley to go in order to get Ablett, no suggestion of where...

I wonder what the chances of us landing both ?

If we pick up Menzel, after not playing Eddy all year because of defensive pressure, I'll spew. The

 

[Coobk001]

Motlop is a free agent, Geelong aint getting bugger all for him.

 

[charcolechaddy]

Motlop is a free agent, Geelong aint getting bugger all for him.

Compo pick that they will pass on to GC

Im happy to take the punt on Motlop he adds to our team structures even if he barely needs to go on the middle.

 

[simmo_bc]

Barrett said on the Footy Show both Motlop and Menzel likley to go in order to get Ablett, no suggestion of where...

I wonder what the chances of us landing both ?

With all due respect to Menzel, because I admire him greatly for overcoming 4 knee reconstructions, he is too risky for me.

1 more knee injury and his career is over?

 

[Mundusa]

But then we'd have no-groins Gray, no-ankles Dixon, no-knees Menzel and no-soul Lobbe.