FTA-TV Australian Survivor - Heroes vs Villains (Jan 2023)

[Kirby]

Look, at least the early odds are usually BS and a suck in by the betting agencies.

Still, obviously they have no place in the thread.

 

[squashface]

You have to give George credit in that he has done at outstanding job in making Gerry think he has had a meaningful sway on any vote

 

[Kirby]

Nina might have said a little too much there as she said, as she’s basically said George has her vote

 

[Kirby]

You have to give George credit in that he has done at outstanding job in making Gerry think he has had a meaningful sway on any vote

He uses the old trick of suggesting something to Gerry, has Gerry then repeat the plan and then says “great idea Gerry”.

 

[AdelaideGT]

Nina might have said a little too much there

I've accused her a few times in last few eps of 'big mouth' upsetting things. But she's desperate and has Sandra-chaos-blood in her veins and has been misled by this crew before. So why not? George or Matt discord is still a win for her really.

 

[darrenmorgan]

George is quite amazing, not only is somehow not in danger at 5, but is actually the swing vote!

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Predictable

 

[AdelaideGT]

Dumb-ass George.

Win the next challenge Liz and win gold girl.

 

[Jaymin]

Liz is going back to camp to grab the knife.

 

[squashface]

Christ

 

[Judd2Sewell]

George played it smart there.

George needs Gerry and Matt.

 

[Jaymin]

It’s going to be a Gerry/Matt final 2. Like it’s really happening.

 

[squashface]

Wonder if Nina’s speech there swayed George.

She effectively said he has her vote if he gets to the end so he would very likely want her on the jury and as well as that, she wouldn’t want to bring him to FTC if she sees him as the most likely to win.

 

[squashface]

I think it will go:

George goes next
Liz wins final immunity and brings Gerry
Liz wins

 

[Barrybran]

I reckon Gerry goes next. Liz is on the bottom and has to beat Matt to stay alive. Matt can win immunity and vote out Liz but then needs to do it again to be able to choose Gerry. George can't beat Matt or Liz in challenges but can pit them against one another at F3. Gerry can't win from here.

 

[Struggle]

Dumb-ass George.

Win the next challenge Liz and win gold girl.

And would probably have Liz voting him out too. She's filthy at him

 

[Kirby]

I think it will go:

George goes next
Liz wins final immunity and brings Gerry
Liz wins

Liz will have to win next immunity too for that to happen as Matt will want her off.

From here it’s either Matt or Liz against Gerry in the final.

There’s no path for George

 

[Ry009]

Wonder if Nina’s speech there swayed George.

Yeah he told the camera as much after the elimination.

My order of boot now would be

-Nina
-Whoever doesn't win immunity out of Liz or Matt.
-Whoever doesn't win immunity out of George or previous immunity winner of Liz/Matt

To me, it has to be Liz or Matt that make it through vs Gerry. If George can pull a few immunities out of his arse then he's got it in the bag.

Not a hard pick but still on target. That tribal pretty much cemented that Matt and Liz see each other as their main threat.

 

[Kirby]

I reckon Gerry goes next. Liz is on the bottom and has to beat Matt to stay alive. Matt can win immunity and vote out Liz but then needs to do it again to be able to choose Gerry. George can't beat Matt or Liz in challenges but can pit them against one another at F3. Gerry can't win from here.

No-one is voting Gerry off - he’s the ultimate goat

 

[AdelaideGT]

There’s no path for George

Well there is if it's a puzzle-type challenge. Now that Nina's out, he's obviously the smartest tool left in the tribe.

Quite often these final challenges are physical/endurance challenges that favour smaller women though.

 

[Ry009]

No-one is voting Gerry off - he’s the ultimate goat

The FTC is going to be ugly. They're all going to rip into him. He'll either stumble Sharn style or go the agro.

 

[Kirby]

Well there is if it's a puzzle-type challenge. Now that Nina's out, he's obviously the smartest tool left in the tribe.

Quite often these final challenges favour smaller women though.

They are always endurance challenges at the end though. It would be pretty suss if it was suddenly a puzzle

 

[Barrybran]

No-one is voting Gerry off - he’s the ultimate goat

I thought so too but I can see a stalemate forming next round where two votes can be formed against George, Liz and Matt (pending immunity) and George pitches three votes on Gerry. Look at the scenarios:

George, Matt & Gerry - Matt wins immunity, takes Gerry
George, Liz & Gerry - Liz wins immunity, takes Gerry
Matt, Liz & Gerry - winner of final immunity takes Gerry
George, Matt & Liz - if Liz wins immunity, does she think she has a better chance than George or Matt? if Matt wins immunity, does he think he has a better chance against George or Liz?

I think Gerry goes next.

 

[LordLucifer]

Not so sure George made the right play there.

May have just cost himself the title with that vote flip.

 

[AdelaideGT]

They are always endurance challenges at the end though. It would be pretty suss if it was suddenly a puzzle

Usually yes. And ones than can favour smaller women than male beasts (eg some kind of balancing).

Would suck if it's the 'under the water breathing challenge' though with life-saver Matt still there. That would truly be suss..

 

[kirky]

If Liz gets to final 2 - no matter who is the other, she will win.

The important thing now is who you have on the jury.

Still trying to work out how George thinks he becomes sole survivor. Any combination if he makes it to final 3, he will get booted at that point - you don’t take the risk of having him in the final tribal council.

Ok, if say Gerry gets to final 3 and somehow wins the final immunity challenge, does he take Matt or George (assume Liz gets booted next week)?