Building a case for finals footy

[POBT]

To go back to a recurring issue in this thread.....

The talk that we "overachieved" in 2009 is interesting. Why is it over achievement? Were we gifted games? Not that I recall. Did we have an incredibly easy draw? Not that I recall. Did we have a charmed run with injuries? Again, I don't really remember it being any better or worse in that respect. I've seen people mention Voss's honeymoon as a factor in us "overachieving" but that doesn't really make sense to me.

I can certainly understand the argument that 2009 was largely based on the effort of 4 senior players (Brown, Bradshaw, Black, Power) who have either left or are (naturally!) older. But I just don't see that we "overachieved". To me, we were exactly what our results showed - a top 8 side which was reasonably well short of being a top 4 side.

I believe that 2009 is closer to where we are at as a playing group than 2010. As I said, I don't expect that we are certs to make the 8. I just don't see that this group is a bottom 4 side unless injuries strike or there is significant player discontent (and I don't discount the possibility of either). I see us as middle of the pack, with lots of potential upside in terms of our young blokes but carrying some risk too.

 

[brenjay]

I wholeheartedly concur with your thinking POBT! Great post

 

[whizkizz]

Lets just say our best 22 looks something like this:

B: Patfull Merrett McGrath
HB: Drummond Maguire Adcock
C: Rich Black XClarke
HF: Polkinghorne Clark Polec
F: Power Brown Banfield

RR: Leuenberger Rockliff, Redden
I: Staker, Harwood, Buchanan, Stiller

Of those 22 players, Polec, Banfield, Leuenberger, Rockliff and Harwood are the only ones without 'finals experience'. Hardly our worst 5 players are they?

I've left Sheldon and Hawksley out too.. both played finals in 2009.

My point is, the majority of these players know what it takes to get there (finals), I don't see why they can't do it again.

 

[Dylan12]

I can certainly understand the argument that 2009 was largely based on the effort of 4 senior players (Brown, Bradshaw, Black, Power) who have either left or are (naturally!) older. But I just don't see that we "overachieved".

You probably mentioned it elsewhere, but the biggest difference I can see b/w the 09 season and the upcoming season is the lack of 23-29 year old players that were accustomed to the rigors of AFL footy. Players off the top of my head include, Bradshaw (obviously older), MacDonald, Harding, Dalziell, Brennan, Rischitelli, Sherman, Johnstone, and maybe one or two more.

What has become evident to me, especially watching all Lions games this pre-season and the NAB Cup games, is that we look like kids compared to a lot of the bigger-bodied and seasoned opposition that we will come up against. Even Gold Coast's kids appear more developed and have that something that a lot of ours don't. I don't want us to be bottom 4 by any means, but I just can't make a compelling case for otherwise from what I have seen to date.

 

[POBT]

You probably mentioned it elsewhere, but the biggest difference I can see b/w the 09 season and the upcoming season is the lack of 23-29 year old players that were accustomed to the rigors of AFL footy. Players off the top of my head include, Bradshaw (obviously older), MacDonald, Harding, Dalziell, Brennan, Rischitelli, Sherman, Johnstone, and maybe one or two more.

Our side from 2009 had lots of first/second year players too. They've all now got an extra season under their belts. It would be interesting to see a comparison of our 2009 finals side with our best 22 going into 2011. I reckon that you'll find that we're likely to play fewer kids and more players in or approaching the 50-100 games bracket. Throw in the experience injection of Staker and Maguire into our likely best 22, and I wouldn't be surprised if our side is better balanced, to be honest.

That isn't disregarding the loss of the players you named (although I would argue that at least a couple would not make our best 22 in 2011) and we continue to have a "young/old" side - with good players in their 3rd year of senior footy and others in their 10-12th but not as much in the middle. But that middle tier also has names like Drummond, Merrett, Adcock, Patfull, McGrath, Staker, Maguire, Clark. That's a core of experience to add to the 3 older blokes. Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, none of those guys are bankable "stars", like Brown, Black, Power and Bradshaw were 2 years ago. That is a problem. Drummond, Adcock and Clark playing prominent roles for the side across 22 games is one of the things that we need to occur.

What has become evident to me, especially watching all Lions games this pre-season and the NAB Cup games, is that we look like kids compared to a lot of the bigger-bodied and seasoned opposition that we will come up against. Even Gold Coast's kids appear more developed and have that something that a lot of ours don't. I don't want us to be bottom 4 by any means, but I just can't make a compelling case for otherwise from what I have seen to date.

And I will acknowledge this - I have paid absolutely no regard to our pre-season form in making my assessment of where we are at. I would like to think that I would take the same view of pre-season form if we were winning(although I doubt that would be the case!). I too find it very disturbing the way that we've gone in the first two weeks of the pre-season. But it is the pre-season. It isn't an accurate form guide and teams approach it differently. I mean, North Melbourne have had a couple of touch-ups too.

The two biggest lessons from the pre-season for me are that we lack depth and that, when we're not switched on in a competitive sense, we struggle. Nothing we can do about the former except keep our best 22-25 on the park. On the latter, it is at least promising that Voss is making no excuses for the lack of competitiveness. And what we've seen under both Lethal and Voss is that, as a general rule (a period of about 8 games in 2010 notwithstanding), our boys generally hit in hard. Hopefully, that continues to be the case.

 

[Tim the Toolman]

Just when I need to spark up my day I can always come to BF and get thrilled.

Having heard Melbourne talkback radio sports jocks all say how we are now their favourite to win the spoon it's good to come here and read how we can make finals. Thanks for getting my bottom lip back off the ground guys!

 

[POBT]

Having heard Melbourne talkback radio sports jocks all say how we are now their favourite to win the spoon it's good to come here and read how we can make finals. Thanks for getting my bottom lip back off the ground guys!

On this basis, surely we are now good things for 2011!

 

[Dylan12]

That isn't disregarding the loss of the players you named (although I would argue that at least a couple would not make our best 22 in 2011) and we continue to have a "young/old" side - with good players in their 3rd year of senior footy and others in their 10-12th but not as much in the middle. But that middle tier also has names like Drummond, Merrett, Adcock, Patfull, McGrath, Staker, Maguire, Clark. That's a core of experience to add to the 3 older blokes. Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, none of those guys are bankable "stars", like Brown, Black, Power and Bradshaw were 2 years ago. That is a problem. Drummond, Adcock and Clark playing prominent roles for the side across 22 games is one of the things that we need to occur.

Absolutely, if we are to be successful, we have to be very fortunate with injuries and field our best 22 for 3/4's of the season. Even then, a number of our best 22 are hardly world beaters on a consistent level. I accept our ceiling can be very good to the point of beating anybody (as we did Collingwood last year), but I fear that may be an exception rather than a rule.

I too find it very disturbing the way that we've gone in the first two weeks of the pre-season. But it is the pre-season. It isn't an accurate form guide and teams approach it differently. I mean, North Melbourne have had a couple of touch-ups too.

Having witnessed both games to date, the score and result are largely irrelevant to me too, but as you said, our form has been disturbing to date and what really worries is the lack of intensity and pedestrian form to date. Similarly this week, I am uninterested in the scoreboard, although a win/respectable loss usually is an indication of some improvement, but I want us to be competitve and show some intensity.

Again, I accept, one cannot read too much into pre-season results. For example, half the side would have played in approximately 3-4 positions last week and unable to settle on a particular position/opponent, which is disruptive some players, not to mention to team balance/structure. However, what will always be evident is a player's competitiveness/intensity, which disappointingly is worrying for this time of year.

 

[chopperduck]

Good post Dylan, and i agree 100%. The last 2 weeks of the NAB will give us a better indication of our team as we get more settled on our 22 for round 1. We have been playing a lot of kids, and not everyone is a Rich where they can play AFL level footy in the first year. Have to remind yourself sometimes that the level in footy they are jumping too is huge, it's 18 year old footy to senior footy, and the fitness levels require to play them would be years appart. With so many players who are probably not up to AFL standard, it can make the team look very second rate.

Hopefully this does disappear as more of our regular 22 players come back in. Also worth noting that this pre season we tried not to go overboard and burn out early like last year, so we might even be going into round 1 a little underdone. This is usually where scratch matches help, but we never seem to play them which sucks. Would be good if the Lions and GC could organise a scratch match to play.

 

[Stocka]

We will agree to disagree!

No, mate. You will have to be beaten into submission.

 

[Ironmonger]

Looking through the draw, we're fortunate enough to have home games against Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, Port, Adelaide and West Coast, along with two games against Gold Coast. Personally I'd have us as favourites for all eight of those at this stage, although barely in some cases.

I'd give us a chance of beating the Kangaroos and Tigers away from home, and Sydney at the Gabba, but realistically nothing else.

So absolute best case scenario is eleven wins, for me. Of course you can always pinch one or two shock upsets along the way, so maybe we can sneak in to the finals if absolutely everything goes our way.

But realistically, we're not going to win all the games we should with the uneven list we've got, and we don't have the depth to cover injuries.

I would expect us to win six to eight games. I think we might cop some big losses away from home, so I don't think our percentage will be very good. We'll probably finish 12th to 15th.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Leaving to one side those games you mentioned TomFC, I think we will smack Fremantle in Rd1 and would be a better than even chance of beating Melbourne in Rd 3.

We are a better than outside chance to beat St.kilda at home in Rd 5 and I think we can pencil in a win against Adelaide at AAMI stadium in Rd 10, particularly as we have an 8 day break and will be coming off consecutive home games against Essendon and Nth Melbourne, both of which we should win. Adelaide on the other hand will have travelled to Melbourne the week before to play Collingwood and I suspect they will have had the stuffing knocked out of them there.

Rd 12 against Carlton will be a tough one, but we will have plenty of motivation there for what shapes as a mid-season mini-final and a win would not surprise.

As for the rest of the season and the games you haven't mentioned, there are a few tough one's there, but I think that if we have a good run with injuries, we might bob up in the odd upset or two.

I don't want to start another jinx thread like Panthera's last year - http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=694750 , but I can see plenty of upside this year. Of course, if the football gods are unkind and our season turns to number twos early, I fully expect to have this post quoted back at me, but somehow I don't think it is going to pan out that way.

Go Lions!

 

[Ironmonger]

Some interesting analysis there, 3KZ. Obviously a bit more optimistic than mine, but thats okay.

Personally I think Adelaide and Carlton will both improve from last year, so I might be rating them a bit higher than you do.

The Saints and Dockers games probably could go in the mix as possible wins, but I really don't think we'll belt the Dockers. I think after such a poor pre-season we'll need a couple of games to get up to standard. Not the Dockers have been going that well either, but we were lucky to get as close as we did to them last season and I think they'll be too good in the midfield.

I honestly don't know how Melbourne will go this season, but it'll be hard for me to have any confidence for that one after that big loss in round 5 last year.

But I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

 

[3KZ is Football]

I take your point about the Melbourne game at the MCG last year. I was there and we were pitiful. I'm hoping that Voss will remind the team of that performance and can use it as motivation.

We got killed in that match more than anything else because we weren't prepared to RUN. I don't think that will happen again, says he with fingers crossed.

 

[POBT]

I would like to think that I would take the same view of pre-season form if we were winning

Lions for the flag.

 

[Slattery_20]

These are the significant losses since 2009:

- Lesser contribution from Black, Power and Brown (although that is not a certainty)
- Bradshaw, a genuine top notch full forward in 2009
- Sherman, who had one of his good years and added pace and goals to the midfield and half forward set up - finished 5th in B&F
- Rischitelli, who was a regular but minor player in the 2009 side
- Brennan, averaged 18 possessions in 20 games. Finished 9th in B&F
- Johnstone, who divides opinion on his worth.

- Dalziell only played half the year or less, but he was very good in 4 or 5 of those matches.

As weak an analysis as it really provides, of the top 22 dreamteam scores/game in 2009, only 12 are left on the list (I think).
Not using that to judge either way on quality, but I think what it does say is that any analysis of this year's prospects based on 2009's form is deeply, deeply flawed.

That's the trap Clarkson fell into, "oh we only need to replace him, him & him and we'll have our 2008 side back together = instant flag".
Does not work like that.

 

[Ray Button]

Want to play finals? It's simple really -

- keep a significant number of senior players on the park, consistently ie those over 25 who are automatic picks when fit.

- hope that the up-and-coming younger brigade with a season or two under their belts show enough improvement to fill the boots of experienced missing players like Rischa, Brennan, Sherman, Johnstone & Selwood.

- hope that a couple of the new draftees can force their way into the team and contribute a la Rich in 2009 (as opposed to our draftees in 2010).

I don't doubt that the Lions have the capability of reaching the finals, but fear it will take an alignment of the stars to see it happen. But, there's always hope!

 

[Lynchpin]

watch this video... this is the reason why finals is achievable

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5P2j7pdlSE&feature=related

 

[MacMum]

You are probably right...hope so..

...But he looked all power and muscle then.....he doesn't seem to have that look now...and I'm hoping it isn't detrimental to his game..

Would love to be proven wrong though..

 

[SDG72]

watch this video... this is the reason why finals is achievable

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5P2j7pdlSE&feature=related

WOW, I was there and know that Browny is a legend. But sometimes you forget how good he is. As long as he is playing (and not injured) with decent supply we are always a chance.

It was interesting to note that the delivery for Brown's second goal was a great kick from Raines and one of the later goals game from a Raines pass. I am the first to think his disposal and decision making is not up to scratch. But when you see those passes in isolation maybe it is just confidence?

Anyway we are a chance for the finals, but a lot will rest on young player development and not getting many injuries.

Anyway should be an interesting ride, at least we will be able to watch the young players develop.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

It was interesting to note that the delivery for Brown's second goal was a great kick from Raines and one of the later goals game from a Raines pass. I am the first to think his disposal and decision making is not up to scratch. But when you see those passes in isolation maybe it is just confidence?

I reckon he definitely likes a strong forward target to kick to. Don't think it's a coincidence he played his best footy at the Tigers when Richo was full forward.

 

[Lynchpin]

I reckon he definitely likes a strong forward target to kick to. Don't think it's a coincidence he played his best footy at the Tigers when Richo was full forward.

Makes it a bit easier doesn't it?

 

[Lynchpin]

You are probably right...hope so..

...But he looked all power and muscle then.....he doesn't seem to have that look now...and I'm hoping it isn't detrimental to his game..

Would love to be proven wrong though..

Absolutely. I'm sure he will be in good shape for rd 1

 

[Ceebee]

Thanks for that video on Brownie, absolutely brilliant. how good would it be to get a fit year out of him.
The young players would just love it.

 

[whizkizz]

- Dalziell only played half the year or less, but he was very good in 4 or 5 of those matches.

As weak an analysis as it really provides, of the top 22 dreamteam scores/game in 2009, only 12 are left on the list (I think).
Not using that to judge either way on quality, but I think what it does say is that any analysis of this year's prospects based on 2009's form is deeply, deeply flawed.

That's the trap Clarkson fell into, "oh we only need to replace him, him & him and we'll have our 2008 side back together = instant flag".
Does not work like that.

Well.. you have a point. Yes we have lost tonnes of experience since then in players like Bradshaw and Johnstone. But it's not all doom and gloom. You must also remember the other players we 'carried' through 2009.

Rhan Hooper - went missing for 3 and a half quarters a game.
Joel MacDonald - Fev kicked 8 on him?
Scott Harding - will he ever arrive?
Jason Roe - facepalm.

IMO, Banfield, Polec, Staker, Leuenberger, Hanley, Maguire and co. are all virtually upgrades on these players.