Cause for 2024 optimism: (Unsurprising) correlation between injury number and win rate in season 2023

[Mr Meow]

Nope I don't. A factor yes. But not that massive. Because we had bad losses when the injury list was not massive (Gold Coast, Fremantle, St.Kilda come to mind instantly), and we had good wins with more injuries (first Dogs game).

What I do think is that it's become a very convenient catch all for the inevitable decline of a lot of players. We don't want to admit some stars are just players now, so it's easier to pin it on injuries.

Even cherry picking like this doesn't give you the result you are after. The Bulldogs game was an exceptionally rare outlier for winning a game with a stacked injury list. It followed 3 winnable (for a side with 4 or less injuries instead of 7-8) games where we had as many injuries and played like a VFL side.

Gold Coast and St Kilda games were away from home with 5 (Rohan managed/sub) and 4 pre game injuries, then 1 and 2 in game injuries. Therefore 6 missing/injured in total.

Therefore Fremantle is your main example and again is an outlier. Everyone agrees that game was a shocker for that reason.

That's the whole reason I ran the stats. To assess if there was a strong correlation between losing and having 6 or more players injured, and to see if this situation happened an abnormally large amount. It was an emphatic yes in both cases.

 

[Partridge]

So then it was a myth (in your eyes) that it was a massive factor. And therefore I didn't misrepresent your view on the matter.

No. You said that I said it was a myth that injuries were a massive factor. I said a factor; not a massive one. Pretty simple to tell the difference I would have thought.

Why would we expect worst case on all of these scenarios and think all of our veterans will fall off a cliff too? As I've shown, injuries were a massive factor despite your claims that this was a myth.

Never at any point did I say injuries were a myth.

Either way, you asked, I answered. If you don't like my viewpoint that's not my problem.

 

[Mr Meow]

No. You said that I said it was a myth that injuries were a massive factor. I said a factor; not a massive one. Pretty simple to tell the difference I would have thought.




Never at any point did I say injuries were a myth.

Either way, you asked, I answered. If you don't like my viewpoint that's not my problem.

In simpler terms, you disagreed that injuries were a massive factor, I provided evidence to the contrary, and then you said I framed your position as "injuries were not a factor" at all. So basically an attempt to show I misrepresented you, and ironically doing the same to me in the process.

I'm fine with your viewpoint. I take it you're fine with my data - did you like the 2022 Geelong set, where a good injury run was identified that correlated with a strong win rate? Much like the two grand finalists this season. Injuries were a massive factor in both seasons.

This plays out a lot. Richmond started 2019 with a terrible injury run and had a so-so win rate and % for points for/against. Once they got a healthy list together playing football consistently, they went on a barnstorming win run where they tore every side apart. Their supporters acknowledged the main causative effect for this difference in form.

Sydney last year a blessed run and top 4/GF; 2023 a terrible run of luck early and when the side were back together a strong win run - but not enough to truly give them a chance as contenders.

 

[you pick one]

The draw doesn't account for losing to Gold Coast or Richmond or St.Kilda. Or losing to GWS and especially Fremantle at home.

A loss to Gold Coast early in the season up here is happening far to regularly.We never fired a shot that day.

 

[Vdubs]

I think we can bounce next year and make finals with better fortune. I don't think we have enough to win the flag. Keeping Geelong attractive for free agents is what we need to do now though to avoid a prolonged period outside the 8. We have an ok collection of younger players but really need a couple of elite players to parachute in to develop the younger players around.

Agree with all that.
Late start to preseason, ongoing critical injuries, lack of 2022 hunger and its skipper...
All year we could see this and nothing could be done about it.

My thoughts, and I know this will be regarded as "glass half empty", but it is how I see it as far as not being in contention, after supporting this club for 60 years:-

-Next season, I still have doubts about how desperately hungry we are, and I think that's critical at Geelong.
-Nobody will ever replace that near manic-hunger that Selwood had, which carried our team.
-Too many players are now satiated, and JC is the prime example. Brilliant player, and I will always be rapt we recruited him, but he is very comfortable with family life, his premiership medallion, and will put in big efforts every now and again to show us he can still do it, but it can't be reliable or regular enough.
-Captain Dangerfield- renowned for his bare minimum approach to training anyway, the end is very near, and we have surely seen his best.
-Blicavs- always wanted him to be our captain; I reckon he is our most irreplaceable player, hence our MVP, but in 24, who knows
-Duncan, CGuthrie, Stanley, Tuohy, Rohan- are all a year older and 4 of them also close to the end.
-Atkins and Stewart are guns and will be our main leaders; that's where we fall down compared to the current great teams.. Who stands up after them, week in week out?
-Hawkins-injuries are catching up, and who knows how the foot really is. Possibly 24 sees him out.
-Then the rest. Time will tell.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

my reason for optimism is simple.

I’m equally confident we can’t win the 2024 flag as i was we couldn’t win the 2022 flag.

 

[Footy Smarts]

my reason for optimism is simple.

I’m equally confident we can’t win the 2024 flag as i was we couldn’t win the 2022 flag.

This is a pretty good argument!

In general I don't see how us winning this year would be some stunning shock. Yes it's unlikely and would obviously require a bunch of things to go right.

But Melbourne would've been $50+ to win in 2021 at this point in 2020. We would've been $20+ for 2022 at this point in 2021. Collingwood not quite as long odds but they were a long way from favourites. In that sense us winning next year wouldn't even be a surprise win.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

my reason for optimism is simple.

I’m equally confident we can’t win the 2024 flag as i was we couldn’t win the 2022 flag.

I believe a significant factor in 2024 will be the extra time we gained by not play finals.
We will start the season in much better nick as a result and I think our competitiveness will bring an edge that hasn’t been there for a while.
Hopefully being better prepared will also pay dividends and see us with less injuries

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

I believe a significant factor in 2024 will be the extra time we gained by not play finals.
We will start the season in much better nick as a result and I think our competitiveness will bring an edge that hasn’t been there for a while.
Hopefully being better prepared will also pay dividends and see us with less injuries

We clearly enjoyed the 2022 offseason. Gut feel is they’ll be more focused this preseason.

 

[Mr Meow]

Agree with all that.
Late start to preseason, ongoing critical injuries, lack of 2022 hunger and its skipper...
All year we could see this and nothing could be done about it.

My thoughts, and I know this will be regarded as "glass half empty", but it is how I see it as far as not being in contention, after supporting this club for 60 years:-

-Next season, I still have doubts about how desperately hungry we are, and I think that's critical at Geelong.
-Nobody will ever replace that near manic-hunger that Selwood had, which carried our team.
-Too many players are now satiated, and JC is the prime example. Brilliant player, and I will always be rapt we recruited him, but he is very comfortable with family life, his premiership medallion, and will put in big efforts every now and again to show us he can still do it, but it can't be reliable or regular enough.
-Captain Dangerfield- renowned for his bare minimum approach to training anyway, the end is very near, and we have surely seen his best.
-Duncan, CGuthrie, Stanley, Tuohy, Rohan- are all a year older and 4 of them also close to the end.
-Atkins and Stewart are guns and will be our main leaders; that's where we fall down compared to the current great teams.. Who stands up after them, week in week out?
-Hawkins-injuries are catching up, and who knows how the foot really is. Possibly 24 sees him out.
-Then the rest. Time will tell.

I see some leadership qualities in Z.Guthrie, Miers and J.Henry when he is out there. I think it's time for Holmes to step it up in that regard too. Those 4 behind Stewart and Atkins would be our leadership core.

 

[Mr Meow]

I believe a significant factor in 2024 will be the extra time we gained by not play finals.
We will start the season in much better nick as a result and I think our competitiveness will bring an edge that hasn’t been there for a while.
Hopefully being better prepared will also pay dividends and see us with less injuries

And we get some GMHBA games early. There is a chance to get a 5-2 type start and some momentum. Playing catch up with the mother of all injury lists last season destroyed us. And it seemed we weren't fit to begin with. At the very least I don't see how, pride stung, they would go in back to back seasons unfit and unprepared.

 

[Vdubs]

I see some leadership qualities in Z.Guthrie, Miers and J.Henry when he is out there. I think it's time for Holmes to step it up in that regard too. Those 4 behind Stewart and Atkins would be our leadership core.

I rate Jack highly- just needs a season without injury, and he, as a swingman, could be our mvp.
Good points about all 4. Right ages.
Holmes is a worry, if all the talk about him leaving is true; I can't include him in my longterm radar yet.

 

[cats_09]

I see some leadership qualities in Z.Guthrie, Miers and J.Henry when he is out there. I think it's time for Holmes to step it up in that regard too. Those 4 behind Stewart and Atkins would be our leadership core.

The final against Collingwood in 2022, late in the match when the ball had gone out of play at Collingwood's end of the ground - it was Zach Guthrie directing traffic down back, ensuring teammates were in the right place, that open Collingwood players were getting picked up etc. And that included telling senior teammates like Stewart who to pick up

In that moment he looked a future leader of the club and a player i could definitely see as part of our leadership group in coming years

 

[StonedCat]

The final against Collingwood in 2022, late in the match when the ball had gone out of play at Collingwood's end of the ground - it was Zach Guthrie directing traffic down back, ensuring teammates were in the right place, that open Collingwood players were getting picked up etc. And that included telling senior teammates like Stewart who to pick up

In that moment he looked a future leader of the club and a player i could definitely see as part of our leadership group in coming years

That was just as important as Gary Rohan's gut run to get the ball to Holmes for the goal

 

[StonedCat]

That was just as important as Gary Rohan's gut run to get the ball to Holmes for the goal

Stuff it, I'm going to replay that last quarter again for shits and giggles lol

 

[goyoucatters]

The final against Collingwood in 2022, late in the match when the ball had gone out of play at Collingwood's end of the ground - it was Zach Guthrie directing traffic down back, ensuring teammates were in the right place, that open Collingwood players were getting picked up etc. And that included telling senior teammates like Stewart who to pick up

In that moment he looked a future leader of the club and a player i could definitely see as part of our leadership group in coming years

Would be worth watching again, purely for the inherent irony involved. As if Tommy was ever actually going to man up anyone...

 

[CatToTheFuture]

my reason for optimism is simple.

I’m equally confident we can’t win the 2024 flag as i was we couldn’t win the 2022 flag.

I'll take it!

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Stuff it, I'm going to replay that last quarter again for shits and giggles lol

This is the best idea I've heard all day

 

[gogeelongcats]

Contrary to most I do not see how the extra weeks due to not playing finals makes such a big difference.

I would rather enter the season with momentum ala Collingwood.

We have many younger players coming through and like all teams we are evolving.

Just like all other teams only time will tell how good our younger players are. At leasy we know our systems are in place.

 

[Mr Meow]

Contrary to most I do not see how the extra weeks due to not playing finals makes such a big difference.

I would rather enter the season with momentum ala Collingwood.

We have many younger players coming through and like all teams we are evolving.

Just like all other teams only time will tell how good our younger players are. At leasy we know our systems are in place.

Hawthorn 2916, Bulldogs 2017, West Coast 2019, Richmond 2021, Melbourne 2022 and Geelong 2023 entered the season with momentum. I don't think it means much. I'd say there's stronger evidence, unless you're a dynasty side, that going really deep in September (grand final or premier) is linked with next season burnout rather than growing momentum.

West Coast 2016, Hawthorn 2016, Sydney 2017, Adelaide 2018, GWS 2020, Geelong 2021, Bulldogs 2022 and Sydney 2023 some other examples.

 

[Grumpy Cat]

I watched a few VFL games this year, in which we had only 1 or 2 AFL listed players. Tells you something.

 

[Mr Meow]

I watched a few VFL games this year, in which we had only 1 or 2 AFL listed players. Tells you something.

Who was injured?

 

[Vdubs]

Hawthorn 2916, Bulldogs 2017, West Coast 2019, Richmond 2021, Melbourne 2022 and Geelong 2023 entered the season with momentum. I don't think it means much. I'd say there's stronger evidence, unless you're a dynasty side, that going really deep in September (grand final or premier) is linked with next season burnout rather than growing momentum.

West Coast 2016, Hawthorn 2016, Sydney 2017, Adelaide 2018, GWS 2020, Geelong 2021, Bulldogs 2022 and Sydney 2023 some other examples.

Geelong 23- no momentum at all;
Momentum = mass x velocity in a strict sense. We were possibly in the plus for mass, but very down on velocity given our late start, and then injuries, which have been covered ad nauseam for some posters.
Agree with the bolded

 

[Vdubs]

I see some leadership qualities in Z.Guthrie, Miers and J.Henry when he is out there. I think it's time for Holmes to step it up in that regard too. Those 4 behind Stewart and Atkins would be our leadership core.

Sure.
I can't discount the leadership that Blicavs offers. Might not be nominated, but he is critical to any success we have next year, imho.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Agree with all that.
Late start to preseason, ongoing critical injuries, lack of 2022 hunger and its skipper...
All year we could see this and nothing could be done about it.

My thoughts, and I know this will be regarded as "glass half empty", but it is how I see it as far as not being in contention, after supporting this club for 60 years:-

-Next season, I still have doubts about how desperately hungry we are, and I think that's critical at Geelong.
-Nobody will ever replace that near manic-hunger that Selwood had, which carried our team.
-Too many players are now satiated, and JC is the prime example. Brilliant player, and I will always be rapt we recruited him, but he is very comfortable with family life, his premiership medallion, and will put in big efforts every now and again to show us he can still do it, but it can't be reliable or regular enough.
-Captain Dangerfield- renowned for his bare minimum approach to training anyway, the end is very near, and we have surely seen his best.
Blicavs- always wanted him to be our captain; I reckon he is our most irreplaceable player, hence our MVP, but in 24, who knows
-Duncan, CGuthrie, Stanley, Tuohy, Rohan- are all a year older and 4 of them also close to the end.
-Atkins and Stewart are guns and will be our main leaders; that's where we fall down compared to the current great teams.. Who stands up after them, week in week out?
-Hawkins-injuries are catching up, and who knows how the foot really is. Possibly 24 sees him out.
-Then the rest. Time will tell.

Pretty much agree with this word for word.
I cannot possibly see how we win the flag.

Finals maybe and probably should (fairly easy draw).