Preview Changes: R3 vs Gold Coast

[Betts are off]

I'd prefer he sent messages to the lazy bastards who couldn't be bothered trying.

Deal with the issues of execution later, once the players are putting more than 20% effort. Lack of effort trumps poor execution every day of the week.

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I think you're missing the point Vadar. By putting an early fear into the entire playing group because suddenly there's a new Sheriff in town and anyone can be dropped, it hopefully can have a much more powerful impact in getting the full list to increase their effort for their new coach.

Rather then dropping 1-3 bottom end whipping boy players like we've always done.

Its a total, old-school coaching powermove, but that's not to say it can't be an extremely effective coaching powermove!

EDIT: But really, it needs to be executed early to garner the impact and respect by the playing group, rather then resentment and anger

 

[1970crow]

Lynch is in no danger whatsoever of being dropped. There are at least 8 players ahead of him in the "must drop" queue, and that number rises to at least 16 if we include youngsters with a free pass (e.g. McHenry and MacAsey).

Lynch was one of the few players we had who put in consistently, and who didn't go MIA for the entire game. That alone puts him in the top 1/3 of our players from Saturday night, and players who get dropped don't come from the top 1/3.

Feel free to question his efficiency and execution, but he won't be dropped while literally half the team couldn't be bothered trying hard enough to even break a sweat.

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Did Nicks send him to half back in the last quarter because he was unhappy with what he was offering or because there was more value in getting a look at McAsey ahead of the ball? Bit of both probably. Gut feel is that if an untouchable was to get made an example of, Lynch is among the favourites. But I don’t mind him at half back but I also desperately want to see Sholl get a go back there. So I’d be a little disappointed if Kelly misses and is replaced by a shuffle.

 

[hey shorty]

I think you're missing the point Vadar. By putting an early fear into the entire playing group because suddenly there's a new Sheriff in town and anyone can be dropped, it hopefully can have a much more powerful impact in getting the full list to increase their effort for their new coach.

Rather then dropping 1-3 bottom end whipping boy players like we've always done.

Its a total, old-school coaching powermove, but that's not to say it can't be an extremely effective coaching powermove!

If you dropped guys who didn't appear to put in for the full game it would include some big names.

But not Lynch, as bad as he was he at least tried to make the play

 

[Murray2503]

I think I've discussed it before, but earlier in the thread I said I would do

OUT: Kelly (inj) Sloane (inj) Seedsman
IN: Sholl, Poholke, Gallucci

There are more candidates to go out - Atkins for example but he won't be dropped for his 100th, Lynch, Smith.

Myles Poholke, Jordan Gallucci, Harry Schoenberg, Ronin O’Connor. They should be in the team now.

Also, before the Showdown I introduced to you Deaneus the professional sports gambler...

and showed you the bets that would take Deaneus! to the stratosphere.

None of them came off. Tex briefly fumbled the ball at the head of the goalsquare but it was not meant to be, which is some sort of message I'm sure.

So, I was down straight away. And I thought, but what's the story this week? I looked up the betting against our opponent, who i thought was Brisbane.

View attachment 892479

Turns out, it's Gold Coast. And they're slight favourites. And then i referred to this table:

AFL Tables - Gold Coast Win-Loss Records

This will be their 200th game in the AFL, against the one team they've never beaten, who suck. So i looked at the team from last week, and thought, no Swallow, no Ellis. And I compared it to the rabble we are.

View attachment 892483 View attachment 892484

And I thought, there are match-ups that are pretty even. But there are some lopsided, and not in our favour.

And then I saw the $1.83, and I realised: WE ARE DESTINED TO LOSE THIS GAME. LOAD UP AND MAKE HAY.

So, $20 on Gold Coast to win @ $1.83

Account Balance = $2.19

Gold Coast 40plus paying $7.50. Very tempting. I think I may have to go there. Will wait till team selection but if the team is a Pyke back in job this could be bet of the season.

 

[hey shorty]

Did Nicks send him to half back in the last quarter because he was unhappy with what he was offering or because there was more value in getting a look at McAsey ahead of the ball? Bit of both probably. Gut feel is that if an untouchable was to get made an example of, Lynch is among the favourites. But I don’t mind him at half back but I also desperately want to see Sholl get a go back there. So I’d be a little disappointed if Kelly misses and is replaced by a shuffle.

I don't reckon Sholl comes in for Kelly, he's more of a Brown/Laird type.

Could be Hamill, could be Butts

 

[hey shorty]

Gold Coast 40plus paying $7.50. Very tempting. I think I may have to go there. Will wait till team selection but if the team is a Pyke back in job this could be bet of the season.

I'm not really a gambler but that is almost worth a $10

 

[LC40]

With Brown and Laird there, I think the 3 of them would be taken advantage of fairly quickly with anyone of some height.

Try Laird on the ball and pinch hitting as a forward pocket. Just try something!

 

[Betts are off]

If you dropped guys who didn't appear to put in for the full game it would include some big names.

But not Lynch, as bad as he was he at least tried to make the play

I think the message is stronger if you swing the axe based on poor effort and poor execution

 

[Vader]

Who is on your "couldn't be bothered trying" list?

Mine consists of Milera, M. Crouch, Smith, Seedsman, Atkins, with B. Crouch borderline.

Keays had an absolute mare, but at least looked like he was trying.

Definitely Milera, Smith, Seedsman & Atkins.

Matt & Brad are hard to judge. Offensively, you'd have to give them a pass for effort. You don't become the 1st & 3rd highest disposal getter on the field, in a team that's being slaughtered, if you're not trying. Defensively, they're always terrible. Lynch works hard both ways, so he gets a clear pass ahead of both Crouch brothers in that regard. Matt's DE (65.4%) was about par for an inside mid, Brad (44%) and Lynch (50%) butchered the ball badly.

Excluding players with less than 10 AFL games (any club), I'd say the following all had zero impact on the game (or close to it):

• Milera
• Seedsman
• Atkins
• Walker
• Smith
• Doedee ** 1st game back after 18 months
• Murphy
• Brown
• Keays
• Crocker

Fogarty had little impact, other than "flying the flag" and having his jumper ripped off. To be fair to him though, the ball was barely sighted at his end of the ground. Walker plays further upfield, and is a very senior player, so I'm not prepared to give him the same degree of leeway.

 

[Vader]

I think the message is stronger if you swing the axe based on poor effort and poor execution

On that basis, Brodie Smith is the first player out. Only 10 disposals, at 40% DE. He clearly fails both the effort and execution tests. Next to go would be Murphy (9 at 55.6%), Crocker (5 at 60%) and Seedsman (11 at 63.6%).

Lynch's 20 disposals puts him towards the top of the leaderboard in the effort stakes, even if his DE (execution) is one of the worst.

I can't see them making more than 4 changes.

 

[hey shorty]

I think the message is stronger if you swing the axe based on poor effort and poor execution

Saturday night was almost all effort based, I'd start there.

 

[Thetrader15]

Did Nicks send him to half back in the last quarter because he was unhappy with what he was offering or because there was more value in getting a look at McAsey ahead of the ball? Bit of both probably. Gut feel is that if an untouchable was to get made an example of, Lynch is among the favourites. But I don’t mind him at half back but I also desperately want to see Sholl get a go back there. So I’d be a little disappointed if Kelly misses and is replaced by a shuffle.

I think Lynch was officially on the wing in the last quarter, but probably spent a fair bit of time back there because that's where the ball was.

I liked that McAsey was pushed forward, I think he shows something.

Seedsman in defence was not a winning move however. He's a wing every day of the week if Saturday was anything to go by

 

[Thetrader15]

Smith, Atkins and Seedsman all having less touches than a first gamer in the forward pocket says it all

 

[Golumless]

I wouldn't be against Nicks taking this as an opportunity to send a clear message to his playing group by dropping some of the "untouchables"

OUT: Lynch, Laird, MCrouch,
IN: Davis, Sholl, Hamill

Finally have a coach with the balls to put some selection fear back into the top echelon of players at the club.

You'd be better going after Tex then Lynch to send a message.

The fact we sent Fog into the ruck tells us that Tex needs to go.

Whilst I am all for replacing Lynch due to how little his role offers, he's Mackayed his way around the axe.

 

[Vader]

As a simple metric of "poor effort and poor execution", I've calculated the number of effective disposals each player has had. This is simply total disposals * disposal efficiency. It's not a perfect metric, but it serves for this purpose.

Excluding Kelly (inj) and players with < 10 AFL games experience, the following were our worst 12 performers on Saturday night:

1. Crocker - 3
2. Fogarty - 4
3. Smith - 4
4. Keays - 5
5. Murphy - 5
6. Sloane - 6 ** injured in 3rd quarter
7. Jones - 6
8. Seedsman - 7
9. Walker - 7
10. Talia - 7
11. Brown - 7
12. Doedee - 7

Matt Crouch is top of the list, with 17 effective disposals. Lynch is 6th, with 10.

Interestingly, Milera, who many (including me) thought was poor, is 2nd on the list with 13 effective disposals. Atkins had 8, which is enough to put him into the upper half of the ladder.

 

[SaltPeter]

Did Nicks send him to half back in the last quarter because he was unhappy with what he was offering or because there was more value in getting a look at McAsey ahead of the ball? Bit of both probably. Gut feel is that if an untouchable was to get made an example of, Lynch is among the favourites. But I don’t mind him at half back but I also desperately want to see Sholl get a go back there. So I’d be a little disappointed if Kelly misses and is replaced by a shuffle.

If Kelly misses I'd be ok with any of Hamill, McPherson or Sholl as a replacement. Probably depends on who the coaches think is closest. Nicks mentioned McPherson in his presser after the game as having a run in the scratch match. The article on the website mentioned both Hamill and Sholl

 

[Betts are off]

On that basis, Brodie Smith is the first player out. Only 10 disposals, at 40% DE. He clearly fails both the effort and execution tests. Next to go would be Murphy (9 at 55.6%), Crocker (5 at 60%) and Seedsman (11 at 63.6%).

Lynch's 20 disposals puts him towards the top of the leaderboard in the effort stakes, even if his DE (execution) is one of the worst.

I can't see them making more than 4 changes.

No, not the combination of those 2, but both as equally important parameters.

 

[Betts are off]

Saturday night was almost all effort based, I'd start there.

Don't kid yourself mate, the skills were deadset deplorable as well.

I'm not saying the effort wasn't shocking, but i've watched amateur league games were more targets were hit! Plenty of fruit on both these trees

 

[hey shorty]

Don't kid yourself mate, the skills were deadset deplorable as well.

I'm not saying the effort wasn't shocking, but i've watched amateur league games were more targets were hit! Plenty of fruit on both these trees

That takes away from our oppo too. They were and are better than we thought.

But I can't forgive lack of effort.

 

[Bearded Clam]

Out

Lynch- terrible skills.. His turn overs coming out of defensive 50 with barely any pressure on him are just one of a few issues with his game that show he’s become a massive liability... And isn’t a recent phenomenon unfortunately.. he’s never been a consistently decent player since 2017.

Murphy- you have to provide more than just forward pressure.. once or twice a game he brilliantly chases down an opponent or throws his whole body fearlessly at a smother.. but then does bugger all else. Not AFL standard. Perfect for the SANFL.

Atkins- 10 disposals and 2 ****in tackles from a midfielder thats meant to be a 100 game player this week!!!.. how the **** is this absolute shite anywhere near acceptable?.... An understatement would be to state that he is the laziest player in the entire comp. how many times do we all see him jog around after his opponents?.. the answer is 90% of the contests he’s involved in.. unless the ball is dished up to him on a platter he obviously thinks its not worth the effort.. No intensity whatsoever. I don’t give a shit if he shows something “promising“ once in every few games like some around here like to point to.. he’s had enough chances.. its time to **** him off. No 100 games for him thanks.

Laird- totally lost all direction.. what’s happened to the lad?.. Maybe he was only worth a rookie pick after all?.. maybe he was brilliant when in a great team that was at its peak in 2017 but in reality when placed in a rebuilding/shit team his true colours shine through?.. either way he’s a shell of his 2017 self.. and his kicking skills are on par with Ollie wines..

Milera- another young talent that showed so much promise 2 years ago.. and has just seemed to have gone entirely backwards.. Given his talent we should be discussing him as one of our young players that are ripe for potential leadership role in the very near future.. instead we are discussing whether he’s best 22.. I still feel he should retain his spot in the 22 at this point but unless he finds form soon...

In
New blood.

And definately no Gibbs, Mackay, Hartigan thanks. Not that it wouldn’t happen with them on the ground anyway but I would rather see us get flogged by 100 points than see these three dropkicks back in the 22.. Delist

Is there a mid season draft this year?..

 

[Tex200]

On that basis, Brodie Smith is the first player out. Only 10 disposals, at 40% DE. He clearly fails both the effort and execution tests. Next to go would be Murphy (9 at 55.6%), Crocker (5 at 60%) and Seedsman (11 at 63.6%).

Lynch's 20 disposals puts him towards the top of the leaderboard in the effort stakes, even if his DE (execution) is one of the worst.

I can't see them making more than 4 changes.

Smith will always fly under the radar here.

Almost any player will be mentioned for omission other than Brodie, despite how badly he may stink things up.

 

[hey shorty]

Smith will always fly under the radar here.

Almost any player will be mentioned for omission other than Brodie, despite how badly he may stink things up.

Taylor Walker......

 

[HarryCrow]

I don't understand how Lynch, a senior player, disposing largely in the open can mis-kick so badly. Easy kicks of 30m under no pressure bouncing short. How? Over and over.

There were two chasing efforts (that i noticed particularly) from Milera where he just gave up/slowed to a jog to watch his player accelerate to get the ball and that's unforgivable. If he's injured then he shouldn't have been playing.

 

[Betts are off]

That takes away from our oppo too. They were and are better than we thought.

But I can't forgive lack of effort.

That takes away from the oppo as well though. They were and are much better at hunting the ball and the body then we thought as well.

Its nice to point to a intangible like 'effort' as the only parameter for our failure, but when its all said and done we were equally bad with and without ball in hand on Saturday night.

And my original point was that we need everyone to improve dramatically in both area's. And I highly doubt dropping the bottom 2-3 guys will get that message across. However a strategic deep cut at this early juncture might hammer home the point far more effectively.

It probably won't happen, but I certainly wouldn't be upset if it did. Show a bit of backbone that this club has been lacking for a long long time!

 

[Tex200]

Taylor Walker......

Deflection?

Tex was far more effective than Smith in R1.

Both ineffective last Sat but Tex certainly in front with a better R1.