Preview Changes: R5 2021 vs Fremantle

[Coopers]

you say you understand sample size, and then go one to conclude that this small sample size is going to be representative of the future despite its historically unprecedented nature

that’s about as dumb as it gets

I recall we had a similar discussion in the boomer thread over a month ago and you were agressively on the other side of the statistical argument

 

[CrowBloke]

Continually playing him will lead to those losses so he should be out soon.

Yes, and dropping Frampton this week will help to avoid or mitigate those losses.
Why wait?

 

[King Elvis]

Seriously, I think you make a lot of interesting and thoughtful posts. Your BF longevity and volume of posts make you a valuable contributor. It's only when you're presented with several counter-arguments with reasonable logic that you dig in, repeat yourself, and defend what many have argued against.
There's a saying: " 'If you run into an @sshole in the morning, you ran into an @sshole. If you run into @ssholes all day, you're the @sshole.' ".
Have 50 people "had a go" at you in this thread? I didn't count. Several have disagreed. Could it be only 10?
Think: are they all wrong and you're right? Why does it matter so much to you that you dig in so hard?

You've repeated several times that Fog was on the end of lace-out passes down his throat and his 3 goals were the result of the hard work of others. No pressure, easy. I disagree and here's why:
Please, please watch the highlights again, duration 7.34.
--- the pass he gets from Schoenberg @ 1.38 is smack on his chest, but he's got himself in the right place and that's not an easy kick for goal, which he nails. Important goal, I might add, at that time of the game.
--- Frampton to Fog 3.01, good pass (probably the only decent thing Frampton did all day), but Fog is in good position on the lead and it's another tricky shot for goal, which he nails. Another important goal, adding scoreboard pressure.
--- Schoenberg to Fogarty @ 6.33, another good lead, another good pass, another good mark and goal. Look at the scoreboard 78-62. The goal makes it 84-62, a NM heart-breaker. Slams the door. If Fog misses, 79-62,and if NM rebound for a goal it's an 11-point game and they've got a sniff.

If I was a Coach, I'd love to have a player who leads-marks-cleanly-kicks goals like that, and the Crows have two.
Ignore all the white noise about Fogarty/Lockett etc, that's just opinion/conjecture and easy to agree to disagree.
However, your dismissal of Fog's goals and his impact on the game has been both distorted and unfair.

Also would've had another goal if not for a dumb playon from Tex - and from memory, he earned that one around a stoppage/contest?

 

[crowsup]

Re Frampton's replacement for the next game. I know that his form is not the best but are we here just to find out who to keep, or are we here to win games as well? If the form of the players that are supposed to replace him is not any better, playing in a minor league, is it really worth replacing him? Or is the idea that these players would really play better in the higher league, is really believed? I know that Frampton hasn't been able to mark too many balls, but I cannot remember him being out marked too many times. Even against 2 opponents. He always brings the ball to the ground. Maybe I'm wrong but I believe that is the reason he's still playing.

 

[Vader]

I mean, average age of 24.5 and 63 games on the weekend (which would be one of the youngest). List wise, we're the equal youngest in the league at 23.8.

So it holds up.

North were the youngest team this week, with an average age of 24yrs 1mth. Essendon, Gold Coast & GWS all matched our 24yr 5mths, but no team was as inexperienced as Adelaide (next closest was GWS, with 67.6).

 

[tinman]

I think that Hately comes in because of Mundy. He is an outstanding player still playing great football, and we need a big mid to compete at clearances.

 

[1970crow]

I think that Hately comes in because of Mundy. He is an outstanding player still playing great football, and we need a big mid to compete at clearances.

If it was me, I'd have;

Out - Lynch (inj), Frampton (omit)
In - Hately, Thilthorpe
Or - Jones, Berg

We need to give a block to all 4 of those guys, so I'm flex with whichever of those they choose.

What I expect;
In - Mackay
Out - McAdam (inj) or Lynch (inj)

 

[Sanders]

I recall we had a similar discussion in the boomer thread over a month ago and you were agressively on the other side of the statistical argument

sorry, I’m usually on the side of understanding statistics.

were you on the side of not understanding them?

 

[Murray2503]

Out: Frampton
In: A contested mark.

 

[Bearded Clam]

Re Frampton's replacement for the next game. I know that his form is not the best but are we here just to find out who to keep, or are we here to win games as well? If the form of the players that are supposed to replace him is not any better, playing in a minor league, is it really worth replacing him? Or is the idea that these players would really play better in the higher league, is really believed? I know that Frampton hasn't been able to mark too many balls, but I cannot remember him being out marked too many times. Even against 2 opponents. He always brings the ball to the ground. Maybe I'm wrong but I believe that is the reason he's still playing.

Frampton is still in the side because the two blokes that could possibly replace him, that have been playing in the SANFL, havent shown anywhere near enough to justify taking his spot.. at the same time Frampton must also be doing exactly what the coaches want from him..

all that being said.. i’d still like to see TT take his spot this week..

 

[Minor Threat]

Himmelberg wasn’t exactly on fire at SANFL level before he came back into the AFL team during the 2020 season. But he was great during the back half of the season and he was a key factor for us winning games. Not to mention his contested marking, I couldn’t believe what I was seeing.
I get the feeling he rises to the occasion, performs better at a higher level and just needs a consistent go at it for his confidence levels.
Probably lose a little bit in the ruck but will provide a contest.

Therefore,
Himmelberg for Frampton is a no brainer for me

 

[Burtonsgottago]

It doesn't. Rucks are generally overrated. It's the work they do around the ground that's important.

Interesting. So in a way we are having to deny our second best KPF from playing and developing or play an unbalanced forward set up in order to carry a potato so as to have a second ruck option to ruck for 8.5 minutes a game? Is there another option to give ROB a rest, or is there somewhere else on the field to hide Frampton/Himmelberg so as to not throw out our forward line?

 

[Bearded Clam]

What has happened to McAsey? Is he injured or just not playing well? I thought he was going to kick on this season but he seems to have disappeared.

He’ll be at North next year

 

[Murray2503]

Interesting. So in a way we are having to deny our second best KPF from playing and developing or play an unbalanced forward set up in order to carry a potato so as to have a second ruck option to ruck for 8.5 minutes a game? Is there another option to give ROB a rest, or is there somewhere else on the field to hide Frampton/Himmelberg so as to not throw out our forward line?

If you watch Grundy last week he was winning most centre taps but GWS (including Mumford) were sharking the ball consistently. Nice Nat is the only ruck who can win taps and direct it to his own players. Ruck taps are generally overrated. ROB's contested marks around the ground aren't. Himmelberg is good enough in the ruck and is a better contest mark imo than Frampton. With our entries into our forward line being improved this year I expect Himmelberg would have good output as long as he can mark it. Ideally you bring Thilthorpe over Berg but he needs to find a bit of form first.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

If it was me, I'd have;

Out - Lynch (inj), Frampton (omit)
In - Hately, Thilthorpe
Or - Jones, Berg

We need to give a block to all 4 of those guys, so I'm flex with whichever of those they choose.

What I expect;
In - Mackay
Out - McAdam (inj) or Lynch (inj)

Like your changes , you have to admit this is the least addicted to Mackay we’ve ever been . Surely hately plays or is sub at worst

 

[CrowBloke]

at the same time Frampton must also be doing exactly what the coaches want from him..

This.
This is the mystery, isn't it? From many posters' pov, Frampton has had 3 poor games, the last 2 worst-Crow-on-ground. Winning side or not, I'd drop him for Thilthorpe as well (Tex and/or Fog can take the occasional F50 ruck contest), because FORM keeps a player's place in the side, not "continuity". Suppose Thilthorpe comes in and spuds it up as badly as Frampton. Nett negative effect, zero + Thilthorpe is exposed to the pressure and speed of AFL footy which is vital for him in a rebuild.

If Frampton's re-selected this week then he's doing something only the Coaches know/want, as you said.

 

[Bearded Clam]

It doesn't. Rucks are generally overrated. It's the work they do around the ground that's important.

Rucks are overrated now are they muzza?...

I reacon you watch about as much footy as Vader..

ask the Suns if they think “rucks are overrated”...

One of the main reasons we got over the top of the suns two weeks ago is because “rucks are overrated”!...

 

[1970crow]

Like your changes , you have to admit this is the least addicted to Mackay we’ve ever been . Surely hately plays or is sub at worst

Played one, subbed one out of 2 available. Round 1 he was having an SANFL tune up following an interrupted preseason. I'll start agreeing when I see him dropped to the SANFL and we're not there yet.

 

[hey shorty]

No huge fan but there is no way Kelly will be dropped after career best game against GC and serviceable against North

ins Himmelberg
outs Frampton

they will have to rotate the sub ; do they play Hately as sub and Dmac sanfl ?

or hately in and Berry as sub?? ( prefer hately sub)

looking forward to Pedlar debut fairly soon but give him another run in sanfl and get him in the week after or so

Rotating the sub is a good idea and Hately isn't a bad choice.

If he gets a chance hopefully it's in the 2nd half with the game slowing a bit and he can use that natural ball winning ability he has.

 

[hey shorty]

Rucks are overrated now are they muzza?...

I reacon you watch about as much footy as Vader..

ask the Suns if they think “rucks are overrated”...

One of the main reasons we got over the top of the suns two weeks ago is because “rucks are overrated”!...

And Goldstein having dominance on ROB in the 2nd and 3rd was a large reason why North pegged us back.

And why we ended up winning.

 

[Golumless]

No huge fan but there is no way Kelly will be dropped after career best game against GC and serviceable against North

ins Himmelberg
outs Frampton

they will have to rotate the sub ; do they play Hately as sub and Dmac sanfl ?

or hately in and Berry as sub?? ( prefer hately sub)

looking forward to Pedlar debut fairly soon but give him another run in sanfl and get him in the week after or so

Seeing we're firmly in a rebuild, wouldn't it be better to just leave Mackay as the sub? Sure he might lose match fitness, but it does mean every kid we have is getting a full game, either in the AFL or SANFL.

 

[Murray2503]

Rucks are overrated now are they muzza?...

I reacon you watch about as much footy as Vader..

ask the Suns if they think “rucks are overrated”...

One of the main reasons we got over the top of the suns two weeks ago is because “rucks are overrated”!...

Centre bounce ruck taps are overrated was what I meant. Couldn't be bothered going back and editing it sorry. You just need a ruck to compete at centre bounce. Whether they win the tap is pretty much meaningless unless they can direct it to an exact spot consistently which Grundy and every other ruck (other than Natanui) can't do. Giving Grundy 7 million over 7 was not based off his ruck taps, it was for his follow up, contested marking around the ground and being another mid once the ball hits the ground. If he doesn't follow up and influence the game around the ground which he isn't at the moment his contract is completely unjustified. Nic Nat is the only ruck you pay big dollars too as he is the only ruck that can win the tap and direct it down the mids throats consistently. He is also good around the ground. Glad we didn't go anywhere near Grundy. ROB's centre ruck taps are not his strength at all but at least he competes. His strength is his tank and contested marking around the ground. The problem with Gold Coast is that have no one to even compete at centre bounce.

 

[Crow till I die]

Fogarty came into the team to replace the injured Sloane.

In doing so, we weakened our midfield to the extent that the worst team in the competition were able to beat us for 3/4 of the game. Simultaneously, we also weakened our forward line, by unbalancing it and making it too tall & slow. Fogarty is like a witches hat when the opposition are streaming the ball out of defence. His presence arguably cost us as many goals as he kicked, due to the lack of forward defensive pressure - both in repeat I50s we didn't get, and opposition goals created by their ability to rebound easily out of defence.

We figuratively robbed both Peter and Paul, and paid nobody. If you're doing that, then you're certainly not helping the development of the other kids around him in the team.

Well for a start we won the 1st 1/4 and steamrolled them in the last 1/4 and along the way were just shy of 30 scoring shots for the match so the ability of this side to score is fine and fog was a nice part of that. By the same logic there are plenty of games talia gets sub 10 possessions but his man is well held via pressure acts and spoils etc..has talia been a passenger or a liability? Point is if fog kicks 3 goals in a game he is doing his job

 

[Deaneus!]

My preference:
Out: Frampton, Fogarty
In: TT, Hately

I too hate it when our young forwards kick goals

 

[Murray2503]

Well for a start we won the 1st 1/4 and steamrolled them in the last 1/4 and along the way were just shy of 30 scoring shots for the match so the ability of this side to score is fine and fog was a nice part of that. By the same logic there are plenty of games talia gets sub 10 possessions but his man is well held via pressure acts and spoils etc..has talia been a passenger or a liability? Point is if fog kicks 3 goals in a game he is doing his job

Kicking goals is part of a forwards job. The other part is helping to lock it in for repeat forward entries and not allowing the ball to be waltzed up the other end repeatedly.