Changes v Freo Anchors

[Schulzycrow]

If LJ hadn't done his injury when he did he would have played half a dozen games already. In a team that is crying out for forwards who can kick straight I find it baffling that some think he won't get a go this season.

 

[Bacon8]

It's a pretty simple concept. Players who struggle to dominate the SANFL reserves certainly are not likely to survive in the AFL. Joyce falls into this category.

EFA

 

[Geoffa32]

Thats just rubbish.
The guy has had the most amazing career imaginable, premierships don't define people in the AFL like they do in the NBA or to QBs in NFL.

Do you think careers of Bob Skilton and Matthew Richardson were wasted aswell??

Yes.

Richo was not highly decorated as Skilton or even Pav. Everyone loves him because noone can remember a time that "Richoman" hurt your side.

 

[Mismatched]

LJ is in the #4-6 bracket of players when it comes to being delisted. Johncock has already retired. Then we have Tambling & Joyce. Then there's a group of 3 - LJ, Thompson (Luke) and Riley. I think we'll be going with more than the minimum changes, because our list needs to be turned over due an accumulation of dead wood caused by a prolonged period of draft avoidance.

If we cut 4 players (and I'm betting on 5 or 6), then LJ will probably be looking for a new job.

I'm sorry, but Callinan is every bit a part of the Johncock, Tambling and Joyce list of needing a miracle to survive, unless Tambling shows something special in the next couple of weeks and can hold a spot with the likes of Dangerfield, Kerridge and Petrenko all likely to press for spots in the next few weeks, those 4 are gonski and may as well be lining up at centre link now.

I agree that then there's another group that would include Johnston, Thompson, Riley, Martin and I'd hope Jaensch who should be in trouble. I think Thompson is first cab off the rank and then it's a bit of a raffle and depends what happens in trade week.

Wrt Callinan, if you're a 30+ year old who can't hold your position in the side, you do not get another contract, it's that simple, especially in a side unlikely to play finals. We are an elite competition and there's no point in holding onto someone not good enough to find a spot in the side when their form trajectory trends sharply downwards.

 

[Bacon8]

Yes.

Richo was not highly decorated as Skilton or even Pav. Everyone loves him because noone can remember a time that "Richoman" hurt your side.

Richo got 3 votes in at least 16 games in his career (I'm not looking back past 2002). 22 votes in 2008.

29 touches & 21 marks in a victory over the Hawks in 2008!

 

[Geoffa32]

Richo got 3 votes in at least 16 games in his career (I'm not looking back past 2002). 22 votes in 2008.

29 touches & 21 marks in a victory over the Hawks in 2008!

Without looking at stats would you have remembered that?

Bob Skilton is remembered for winning three Brownlow Medals. Pav a multiple All Australian.

I did not need to use Google to remember this.

 

[Macca Pakka]

LJ is in the #4-6 bracket of players when it comes to being delisted. Johncock has already retired. Then we have Tambling & Joyce. Then there's a group of 3 - LJ, Thompson (Luke) and Riley. I think we'll be going with more than the minimum changes, because our list needs to be turned over due an accumulation of dead wood caused by a prolonged period of draft avoidance.

If we cut 4 players (and I'm betting on 5 or 6), then LJ will probably be looking for a new job.

Even if we have as much "dead wood" as you claim, I think it would be foolish to be cutting 5 or 6 deep unless we were bringing in 2 or 3 players. With the loss of draft picks I doubt we'll be wanting to go very deep in the draft.

 

[Bacon8]

Without looking at stats would you have remembered that?

Bob Skilton is remembered for winning three Brownlow Medals. Pav a multiple All Australian.

I did not need to use Google to remember this.

I remember the Richo one, because he was my captain in my DT final and the only way I would've won the match (and the cash) was having Richo as captain (and other player would've been insufficient).

Richo is a 3 time AA.

 

[Mattrox]

Even if we have as much "dead wood" as you claim, I think it would be foolish to be cutting 5 or 6 deep unless we were bringing in 2 or 3 players. With the loss of draft picks I doubt we'll be wanting to go very deep in the draft.

Because of this I can see Tambling being given a 1 year life line.

 

[Vader]

If LJ hadn't done his injury when he did he would have played half a dozen games already. In a team that is crying out for forwards who can kick straight I find it baffling that some think he won't get a go this season.

Maybe.. probably not, either way it's a massive assumption (hypothetical) stated as fact. My bet is that he would have played 1 or 2 at most - during the period when Smack was suspended.

As for why he hasn't been selected.. you don't think it could be because they don't think he's good enough?

 

[Geoffa32]

I wonder if LJ is competing with Lynch for a role.

Lynch is some great form and is adding another dimension to our side.

 

[Vader]

Because of this I can see Tambling being given a 1 year life line.

If Tambling gets a life extension, then LJ is a dead man walking.

 

[Vader]

I wonder if LJ is competing with Lynch for a role.

Lynch is some great form and is adding another dimension to our side.

We have 5x KPP forwards, all with different strengths & weaknesses, all competing for 2-3 positions in the team (depending upon the desired structure). The rankings are fairly obvious from the team selections over the last 18 months:
1. Walker
2. JJ
3. Lynch
4. Smack
<daylight>
<more daylight>
5. LJ

 

[Vader]

I'm sorry, but Callinan is every bit a part of the Johncock, Tambling and Joyce list of needing a miracle to survive, unless Tambling shows something special in the next couple of weeks and can hold a spot with the likes of Dangerfield, Kerridge and Petrenko all likely to press for spots in the next few weeks, those 4 are gonski and may as well be lining up at centre link now.

Quite possibly. I wouldn't argue too loudly to the contrary.

I agree that then there's another group that would include Johnston, Thompson, Riley, Martin and I'd hope Jaensch who should be in trouble. I think Thompson is first cab off the rank and then it's a bit of a raffle and depends what happens in trade week.

The only reason that Martin & Jaensch aren't included in that group is that they are already contracted for 2014, thanks to a pair of brain explosions by our list manager last year.

 

[huludicidal]

LJ is in the #4-6 bracket of players when it comes to being delisted. Johncock has already retired. Then we have Tambling & Joyce. Then there's a group of 3 - LJ, Thompson (Luke) and Riley. I think we'll be going with more than the minimum changes, because our list needs to be turned over due an accumulation of dead wood caused by a prolonged period of draft avoidance.

If we cut 4 players (and I'm betting on 5 or 6), then LJ will probably be looking for a new job.

I agree that there'll 5-6 players from our 2013 senior list that won't be on it in 2014.

For me, these are:
1) Johncock (retired)
2) L.Thompson (delist or trade if he has any currency)
3) Callinan (delist)
4) Joyce (delist)
5) 1 of Mackay or Otten (trade - preferably Mackay but I could live with giving up Otten for something around pick 22, which could then be on-traded to fill a team need - Hello Scott Lycett )
6) Martin (delist or trade if he has any currency) *EDIT Didn't realise Martin has a contract for 2014. Tambling and LJ could well be competing for the last remaining spot on the list over the next 6-7 weeks. Interesting.

Aidan Riley is absolutely no chance of being delisted IMO. Nil. Nada. Zilch. Ellis-Yolmen would be a higher chance of being let go. And he won't go either.

LJ will be retained for at least another season (again, just my opinion - wouldn't be shocked to see him let go, especially if we are targeting Mitch Thorp in the draft, or if we feel we can get our hands on a Gumbleton, Lycett, Gorringe or Bellchambers in a trade).

A Graham (unfortunately) has a contract. If he doesn't get delisted at the end of 2014 I'll eat my hat.

Tambling is one player I haven't listed that is obviously a legitimate chance of being given the arse. 8 weeks ago I would have said he was less of a chance than B.Martin to stay on our list. Now I think he's a 60% chance of being retained. Would keeping him around be a good choice? Questionable, but he certainly showed against the Cats that he can contribute when played in the right role. His SANFL form over the last 18 months has been excellent to say the least, and he seems to be in Sando's good books which probably means he trains really well . *EDIT - because Martin has a contract, Tambo's chances are 50% at best.

Others that are some sort of messed up chance to be delisted, traded etc include Scott Thompson (FA), Smack (trade), Jaensch (delist or trade), Vince (trade), Petrenko (trade), Lyons (trade), Shaw (trade), Porps (trade) and Hendo (trade). Personally, I think trading any of Hendo, Shaw or Lyons would be dumb unless we were getting way overs in terms of value at the draft table. I'd love to see Jaensch given the arse - don't like him at all. If Vince can net us something decent in a trade I'd be open to it, but we must remember that he would have to agree to leave Adelaide, which seems a long shot at best. Smack can only be traded if we are picking up one (or two) of the aforementioned big forwards / backup ruckmen. Pets is an interesting one - his skill level is appalling but he obviously provides a lot of speed and aggression. Probably a 99% chance to stay at the club, but if someone offered us pick 25 for him, or we could get a player we're after in a 3 way deal or something, you'd have to at least consider it. I'm unsure of his contract status so that might completely shut down that suggestion anyway.

This is all speculative and none of us know for sure. Just wanted my predictions to be out there on the table.

 

[Vader]

I don't think they'll want to go too deep in the draft, noting that we don't currently enter it until the 3rd round. It wouldn't at all surprise me if they were looking to obtain players via other means, thus creating more delisting opportunities. I'd suggest that we'd be looking at 1 or 2 free agents, plus a PSD selection, plus 2 rookie upgrades (Laird & Hartigan). That's 4-5 vacancies we need to create right there. Throw in 2-3 ND selections and we could potentially be culling 6-8 players without doing anything silly or diving too deeply into the shallow end of the draft pool.

Sando can huff & puff all he likes about wanting to trade into the 1st and 2nd rounds. The reality is that most of our players are already contracted for 2014 and won't be going anywhere (despite the best intentions of BF to trade away the likes of Mackay and Douglas). Otten & McKernan are probably the only two who are currently out of contract with any real trade value - and we'd be stupid to trade Otten given our lack of decent tall defenders. McKernan will probably be offered a new contract, whether he chooses to re-sign or look to greener pastures is anyone's guess.

 

[Magma]

johnston and hartigan listed as outs for north and south respectively.

 

[Schulzycrow]

Maybe.. probably not, either way it's a massive assumption (hypothetical) stated as fact. My bet is that he would have played 1 or 2 at most - during the period when Smack was suspended.

As for why he hasn't been selected.. you don't think it could be because they don't think he's good enough?

Think that we have been burnt earlier in the season with bringing in players in the 15-22 that weren't fit. When Tex went down we were looking for a forward, now Lynch has taken his chance with both hands and good on him. JJ is getting there and will be better for the experience he gets. LJ was very close and was mentioned by Sando in the vein of bad timing when he got injured. Maybe he isn't good enough as you assert Vader, but 55 goals last year and playing consistent footy for North. I think Lynch, Tex and LJ are similar, while JJ and Smack are similar KPP to say there is a massive gap between Smack and Johnston is just trolling to get a reaction...so well done.

 

[Righteo]

You have two 'big' forwards, neither of them genuine KPFs. We have 3 big defenders, and as good as you think Mayne and Clarke might be they don't need all of Rutten, Talia and Otten to defend them.

Either Otten must be played as a permanent forward (not ideal IMO), or one of the three rested. Otherwise we're asking for trouble.

Out: Rutten/Talia/Otten, Thompson (inj)
In: Johnston, Kerridge
Sub: Mackay

Mundy should be tagged over Hill every day of the week, I'm yet to see Hill tear a game apart.

Let him run free and see what happens

 

[Vader]

I think Lynch, Tex and LJ are similar, while JJ and Smack are similar KPP to say there is a massive gap between Smack and Johnston is just trolling to get a reaction...so well done.

A simple comparison of Smack's record with the selectors (13 games in 2012/2013) vs LJ's record (1 game in 2012, 0 in 2013) says that there's daylight between them. It's not trolling. It's a statement of fact - one which is bleeding obvious.

 

[Deaneus!]

johnston and hartigan listed as outs for north and south respectively.

My first thought was, TEAM AMERICA **** YEAH, even though it's not what they sing.

Very interesting. Good on them, and glad they're being rewarded. I find it a touch odd though, I thought the club were still going with "we can make the finals", would not have expected these two to come in (one debutant, one practically a debutant) unless they're replacing other rookies.

 

[Crow-eater]

Kedge an out (crows) for Sturt in addition to the LJ/Hartigan outs

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Kedge an out (crows) for Sturt in addition to the LJ/Hartigan outs

Not sure why Hartigan would come in this week, given we already have 1 too many tall defenders v Freo & we are in need of key forwards ... unless there is an injury. Reckon he may be an emergency.

 

[craig crowing]

When looking at how many delistings will do .
Please remember we will upgrade 2 rookies .
Has Riley got a contract next year as if not would be possible delisting

 

[Crow-eater]

Not sure why Hartigan would come in this week, given we already have 1 too many tall defenders v Freo & we are in need of key forwards ... unless there is an injury. Reckon he may be an emergency.

There's been no outs for the Crows listed as ins for their SANFL clubs. McKernan not named for Glenelg either.

I doubt we'll see 4 changes. Likely one and the rest are emergencies.