Opinion Collingwood and Richmond, who finishes higher in 2023?

[Mr Meow]

With 7 missing from our best 22 over the last month our depth seems pretty damn good.

Looking at the absentees:

Cameron is the big one, solving the ruck issue.

I'm really not convinced Cox (not good) or McStay (poor form) make you much better at this point - even if Macrae's preferred set up might involve both.

Lipinkski is significant, although less so than if he missed last year.

Howe in would be nice, he adds flexibility and an interceptor besides Moore. But like Geelong with Jack Henry, they can still put a solid backline together in the meantime.

The critical components minus first choice ruck have been there though. The swarming Pies game style needs runners and you have those.

JDG and Pendlebury missed single games and this probably contributed to those games being a bit closer.

 

[doppleganger]

Looking at the absentees:

The entire concept of a best 22 is flawed.

You need to lean on a much bigger squad over the season.

And there ebbs and flows within, a fan does a "best 22" at the start of the year...how many would have the same "best 22" come finals?

IMHO at the Pies our most "valuable" players are Moore and DeGoey, and now on exposed 2023 form add N.Daicos to them. If we go into games without them we are majorly weakened.

The rest, much of a muchness...as we have depth and cover.

Our problem to date hasnt been individuals, it has been that it has been our tall options - Cameron, Cox, Kreuger, McStay, Howe, Murphy and even kids Dean and Begg are all our talls.

They dont ALL play when fit, but running with Ash Johnson as ruck wouldnt have been in any plans over the off-season, he is a 3rd tall type.

 

[Mr Meow]

The entire concept of a best 22 is flawed.

You need to lean on a much bigger squad over the season.

And there ebbs and flows within, a fan does a "best 22" at the start of the year...how many would have the same "best 22" come finals?

IMHO at the Pies our most "valuable" players are Moore and DeGoey, and now on exposed 2023 form add N.Daicos to them. If we go into games without them we are majorly weakened.

The rest, much of a muchness...as we have depth and cover.

Our problem to date hasnt been individuals, it has been that it has been our tall options - Cameron, Cox, Kreuger, McStay, Howe, Murphy and even kids Dean and Begg are all our talls.

They dont ALL play when fit, but running with Ash Johnson as ruck wouldnt have been in any plans over the off-season, he is a 3rd tall type.

My thoughts exactly. Of course there is always a tipping point but as long as you can look at an area (forwards, mids, defence) and it still looks strong with your main stars - good sides find a way.

Losing a bunch of talls at the same time is less than ideal though, that much is certain. Cameron and Howe back would be enough to optimise I reckon, although McStay with his second ruck capacity probably gets picked no matter his form.

 

[Shinboner '07]

Lmao I think we can lock this thread now, we know the answer

 

[doppleganger]

My thoughts exactly. Of course there is always a tipping point but as long as you can look at an area (forwards, mids, defence) and it still looks strong with your main stars - good sides find a way.

Losing a bunch of talls at the same time is less than ideal though, that much is certain. Cameron and Howe back would be enough to optimise I reckon, although McStay with his second ruck capacity probably gets picked no

For what it is worth, we started the year playing all of Cameron, Cox, McStay and Mihocek...and down back we went smaller with Moore, Howe, Murphy and Maynard (often plays taller).

Will that be what we run with later in the year if all are available again??

Will Frampton and Johnson just demand to be picked?

That is what happened in 2010 - veterans J.Fraser, Presti, Medhurst, O'Bree and Lockyer started the year playing in seniors. Come finals they weren't being picked as we went with kids like Blair, Macaffer, Sidey, Dawes and N.Brown who were producing.

 

[Gimmeafree]

Why is this thread still going when we already have the answer

 

[Defabs]

For what it is worth, we started the year playing all of Cameron, Cox, McStay and Mihocek...and down back we went smaller with Moore, Howe, Murphy and Maynard (often plays taller).

Will that be what we run with later in the year if all are available again??

Will Frampton and Johnson just demand to be picked?

That is what happened in 2010 - veterans J.Fraser, Presti, Medhurst, O'Bree and Lockyer started the year playing in seniors. Come finals they weren't being picked as we went with kids like Blair, Macaffer, Sidey, Dawes and N.Brown who were producing.

That’s a very good point. If someone at the start of the season had said we’d win the flag but without those players, it would be almost laughable. You could even add Jack Anthony to that list. Leading goal kicker in 2009, played the first couple of games in 2010 (i remember him winning the game against melb in round 2), then dropped and came back and played a couple of games in defence later that season.

It is just so hard to know who will be in the 22 later in the season assuming we are injury free.

There are some players I absolutely love but I can see some really hard luck stories should our season progress similarly to 2010… It pains me to say Elliott and lesser extent Hoskin-Elliott (despite great final few mins last week)

 

[Pistol Night]

Lmao I think we can lock this thread now, we know the answer

Richmond supporters won’t agree

 

[nineteen eighty]

The entire concept of a best 22 is flawed.

You need to lean on a much bigger squad over the season.

And there ebbs and flows within, a fan does a "best 22" at the start of the year...how many would have the same "best 22" come finals?

IMHO at the Pies our most "valuable" players are Moore and DeGoey, and now on exposed 2023 form add N.Daicos to them. If we go into games without them we are majorly weakened.

The rest, much of a muchness...as we have depth and cover.

Our problem to date hasnt been individuals, it has been that it has been our tall options - Cameron, Cox, Kreuger, McStay, Howe, Murphy and even kids Dean and Begg are all our talls.

They dont ALL play when fit, but running with Ash Johnson as ruck wouldnt have been in any plans over the off-season, he is a 3rd tall type.

Daicos and Moore are the one's for mine. Not for the 30+ possessions Daicos gets but what happens to the ball once it hits its target. Invariably he will hit a target which then leads to a further Collingwood possession. It's this "minimum +1 play" that makes him so valuable. And to think he's a 2nd year player. Incredible! His possessions are critical to the Pies in terms of setting up play.

Moore is key to intercept play from down back. Premierships are won by very good intercept teams. He's as good as there is going around. And he's a leader to boot.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

Remember a few years ago when Hawthorn jagged a top 4 finish, deluded themselves that they were still in the premietship window, and went the player top up route? Amd how it set them back about 5 years? Leading to them being stone cold motherless last with a % of 69 now?

Yeah well if it’s good enough for the Hawks, it’s good enough for us!

A couple.of years ago Richmond didn't jag a top 4 finish, they missed the finals altogether and last year were bundled out in the first week of finals.

 

[White Dogg]

Why is this thread still going when we already have the answer

Richmond could be back in business. Solid wins against West Coast and Geelong the past fortnight.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Richmond could be back in business. Solid wins against West Coast and Geelong the past fortnight.

Tonight was a good win, but last week was hardly what I'd call solid against a WAFL side.

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

Richmond could be back in business. Solid wins against West Coast and Geelong the past fortnight.

Back in business to what? They are still 4 wins behind us and we have a game in hand, they could win every game for the rest of the year and still not end up finishing higher.

 

[My Tilly]

Richmond could be back in business. Solid wins against West Coast and Geelong the past fortnight.

Your mob will likely run them ragged next week.

 

[dean33]

Your mob will likely run them ragged next week.

Cheering for other teams to do it after your team wasn’t up to the task?

 

[VinnieB]

You've had a remarkable run of wins in close games and banking on things to fall your way isn't sustainable. Eventually, the house will win and you'll start losing those close ones. Hence the percentage analogy.

Percentage looking good. Second highest in the game and still yet to play West Coast, North and Hawthorn.

Next….

 

[South of the Yarra]

You've got a lot of time on your hands digging up old posts. Collingwood doing well, percentage is poor for a 6 and 1 team. They've definitely kept the lucky streak of close games going from last year. Maybe this time it'll be a different result in finals? If Essendon could've held a 5 goal lead, or Adelaide had converted better, the Pies would be 4 and 3 and sitting about 8th.

How is the percentage theory going?

 

[BuildEmUp]

How is the percentage theory going?

and the "lucky streak" theory ...

 

[Fadge]

and the "lucky streak" theory ...

Pies just lucky they're winning by bigger margins this year, as there's no way their lucky streak could have continued in close games...

 

[adammania9]

How extraordinary is it that the bulk of media “experts” and fans backed a side that finished a point off a grand final, then added an inside mid, key defender, key forward and link up forward to drop off and possibly miss finals, under the premise that we wouldn’t win the same amount of close games? How did so few suggest we would improve and win by more? Every Pies fan knew this group was legitimate. Smart bunch.

 

[VinnieB]

How extraordinary is it that the bulk of media “experts” and fans backed a side that finished a point off a grand final, then added an inside mid, key defender, key forward and link up forward to drop off and possibly miss finals, under the premise that we wouldn’t win the same amount of close games? How did so few suggest we would improve and win by more? Every Pies fan knew this group was legitimate. Smart bunch.

I think they knew. Just didn't want to admit it to themselves.

 

[Royce Hafey]

Clearly Collingwood are going to finish higher and are favourites at this stage to be minor premiers and premiers. But just as clearly that doesn't count because you shameless thieves are doing it with our system and our old reserves coach. Is this payback for us nicking Minogue back in the day? I know revenge is best served cold, but that's bloody cold.

 

[Do the Dew]

How is the percentage theory going?

It's a long season son, plenty of time yet for the dust to settle. Whole point of the theory is that you don't make snap judgements based off a few matches. It's a multi-season outlook as I've posted numerous times before.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Over the last 64 seasons Collingwood have finished ahead of Richmond on the home and away ladder 40 times with Richmond finishing ahead of Collingwood the other 24.

Over the last 30 years it is actually Collingwood 15 v Richmond 15, which may surprise some. So we are addressing this tiny chink in our armour. That is what great clubs do, they learn and they address things.

But for all that, over the last 64 years Collingwood have won 1 Grand Final. Richmond have won 8.

So Collingwood are 1.66 x better than Richmond at finishing higher on the home and away ladder. But Richmond have won 8x more Grand Finals. Which means that from any given finishing position, Richmond are over 13 x better than Collingwood at winning the Grand Final.

So the Pies are going to need a hell of a head start on the Tigers in 2023 if they are to have more chance of winning the Grand Final.

So far Collingwood are "giving themselves a chance." To be fair to them, giving themselves a chance is something they have done much better than Richmond over the last 64 years. It is the taking the chance bit where we have schooled them in a manner of which Socrates himself would have taken great pride. But clubs like Collingwood do not learn, not even from the masters.

 

[Pistol Night]

Over the last 64 seasons Collingwood have finished ahead of Richmond on the home and away ladder 40 times with Richmond finishing ahead of Collingwood the other 24.

Over the last 30 years it is actually Collingwood 15 v Richmond 15, which may surprise some. So we are addressing this tiny chink in our armour. That is what great clubs do, they learn and they address things.

But for all that, over the last 64 years Collingwood have won 1 Grand Final. Richmond have won 8.

So Collingwood are 1.66 x better than Richmond at finishing higher on the home and away ladder. But Richmond have won 8x more Grand Finals. Which means that from any given finishing position, Richmond are over 13 x better than Collingwood at winning the Grand Final.

So the Pies are going to need a hell of a head start on the Tigers in 2023 if they are to have more chance of winning the Grand Final.

So far Collingwood are "giving themselves a chance." To be fair to them, giving themselves a chance is something they have done much better than Richmond over the last 64 years. It is the taking the chance bit where we have schooled them in a manner of which Socrates himself would have taken great pride. But clubs like Collingwood do not learn, not even from the masters.

We’ve won 1 GF in 64 years?