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Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
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Fundamental analysis could include a 10 year backtest to determine how long the Windies have batted for on Day 5 and then playing some simple ideas in my head about what could happen - but to take a bet the prices need to be wrong with regards to the true probability of the event occuring (based on my judgement)

All this is done in the knowledge that sample sizes and other stats have no basis on what will happen in the future.

The turkey that is fed every day for a year thinks his owners love and adore him, every day that passes confirms this in the turkey's brain with increasing confidence. However, the day before Christmas, the turkey will realize that his risk management was indeed wrong.
 

EDFL follower

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Apr 16, 2007
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Huge value in the 2nd test at the moment England vs Windies with the draw paying $5.30.

The most recent match finished on Sunday so there's a short turnaround for bowlers.
There's rain forecast on Saturday
Windies won the first test and are batting second, they'd happily take a draw over a loss
England are missing Joffra Archer due to his biosecurity breach

Get in now while the odds are good, they won't be $5.30 this time tomorrow.
Nearly 90 percent of test matches get a result so backing the draw is a quick way to poverty!
 

54Dogs

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Feb 18, 2008
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As I said, the issue isn't so much what you do when the market moves in your favor: the issue is what do you do when the market moves against you? This will determine whether you make money in this game or not.

Most people cut their winners short because they loathe to give up a profit, and they let their losses run because they are loathe to take a hit.

Us gamblers who play for high stakes need a systemic method of eliminating emotions and simply playing the long game.

If I had backed the draw @ $5.00 id have a predetermined price where I would exit my position, id base this on my natural risk tolerance, technical analysis using the betfair price graphs - ideally id be looking for upside resistance where if the market penetrated, id know that sentiment had changed. My main aim would be to minimise any financial loss.

I generally like to let winning bets run. I find the more i engage in a market, the more emotional i get, and the worse my performance.
Each to there own but value exists both ways.

A market you rate as a $3 chance and can get $6 should be backed as it is value. If the market changes in play and is now being offered $2 but you still rate it a $3 chance it should be layed, as laying it is value.

Price and value works both ways as those using BF regularly would know.
 

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ash_1050

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Nov 21, 2009
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Nearly 90 percent of test matches get a result so backing the draw is a quick way to poverty!
If you buy and hold all 5 days then yeah, it's a bad bet. The bet was always going to be a cash out/hedging play when the market firmed further and I wrote an extensive analysis of the plan a couple of posts later. Test match cricket is the best sport in the world for betting on results as it throws up all manner of opportunities throughout a game if you can think a couple of sessions ahead.
 

EDFL follower

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Apr 16, 2007
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If you buy and hold all 5 days then yeah, it's a bad bet. The bet was always going to be a cash out/hedging play when the market firmed further and I wrote an extensive analysis of the plan a couple of posts later. Test match cricket is the best sport in the world for betting on results as it throws up all manner of opportunities throughout a game if you can think a couple of sessions ahead.
Yes fair enough. And I agree with you test crixket is the best sport in the world to bet on and make good $$
 

EDFL follower

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Apr 16, 2007
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If you buy and hold all 5 days then yeah, it's a bad bet. The bet was always going to be a cash out/hedging play when the market firmed further and I wrote an extensive analysis of the plan a couple of posts later. Test match cricket is the best sport in the world for betting on results as it throws up all manner of opportunities throughout a game if you can think a couple of sessions ahead.
So I just laid the draw at different times during the game but never backed it so I guess we have a similar system
 

Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
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He backed a draw at 5s and it come into even money before a ball was even bowled. Good bet for me.
Of course. It was a superb hedge/trade when looked at as a 'one-off' event. Called in advance and traded to perfection. Very well done.

My point is what do you do if that trade goes against you?

That determines whether you can make it as a profitable gambler. Do you trade out for a 20% loss of your original stake or do you let it run for a 100% loss.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
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Once again i walked away from the match with a profit.

Roston Chase cashing again in the 4's overs market.

This game is simple but hard.

Only the most emotionally stable can handle the heat in this kitchen.

Risking money to make money sets the men from the boys.

Sets the risk takers from the public servants who never take risk.

Come get some.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
413
734
AFL Club
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Each to there own but value exists both ways.

A market you rate as a $3 chance and can get $6 should be backed as it is value. If the market changes in play and is now being offered $2 but you still rate it a $3 chance it should be layed, as laying it is value.

Price and value works both ways as those using BF regularly would know.
No doubt. But that approach only works if you trade out when the market moves against you. Otherwise you are selling your winners short and letting your losses run.
 

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Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
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Pro tip to those looking to bet on some of the player's exotic markets. Benny Stokes has a poor recording in the 2nd innings when Eng bowl first. Obvious explanation is his technique falls down with the bat due to poor fitness.
 

ash_1050

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Ended up getting on the draw yesterday at $2.80 and it's now into $2.40 without a ball being bowled.

Will once again look to lay it off at some point during the game once things unfold a bit more.
 

EDFL follower

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Ended up getting on the draw yesterday at $2.80 and it's now into $2.40 without a ball being bowled.

Will once again look to lay it off at some point during the game once things unfold a bit more.
Looks like no rain the first day then showers off and on for the rest of the match. This will be the best odds we can get for England for the whole series. Think I will be getting n them.
 

ash_1050

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Cometh the hour cometh the decison.

England are currently at $1.30 would allow me to hedge the outcome by putting 3x my initial bet on England to win and call it a day coming out about even.

With that said it's been a profitable week elsewhere so I'm going to let it ride without hedging.

A couple of reasons for this, first and foremost I won't miss the stake invested, but also the pitch is looking very uninspired the last couple of days of play, plus the Windies should (hopefully) bat better than the did day 5 of the second test. Plus the outside chance of some rain. Bring on day 5 of a hard fought draw and consider it an inverse $2.80 8 leg multi of batsmen going out, where if 2 batsmen don't go out the bet gets up.
 

ash_1050

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88 overs to go, I wanna be sedated.

If I wasn't already so invested in the draw the current odds of $4.20 look like overs given how dead this pitch is.
 

EDFL follower

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Apr 16, 2007
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Of course. It was a superb hedge/trade when looked at as a 'one-off' event. Called in advance and traded to perfection. Very well done.

My point is what do you do if that trade goes against you?

That determines whether you can make it as a profitable gambler. Do you trade out for a 20% loss of your original stake or do you let it run for a 100% loss.
Think that might have happened this test match! And I believe he let it run for a 100 percent loss
 

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