Draft Watcher Davo-27's 2020 u18 Draft Watch

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Power Rankings
1. Will Phillips - Oakleigh - 180cm 80kg
2. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - GWV/Oakleigh - 195cm 90kg
3. Logan McDonald - Perth - 197cm 86kg
4. Denver Grainger-Barras - Swan Dist - 194cm 78kg
5. Elijah Hollands - Murray - 189cm 85kg
6. Riley Thilthorpe - West Adel - 201cm 100kg
7. Archie Perkins - Sandringham - 188cm 79kg
8. Braeden Campbell - Sydney A - 181cm 75kg
9. Tanner Bruhn - Geelong - 183cm 74kg
10. Lachlan Jones - WWT - 186cm 89kg
11. Heath Chapman - West Perth - 193cm 81kg
12. Reef McInnes - Oakleigh - 193cm 86kg
13. Oliver Henry - Geelong - 188cm 77kg
14. Nathan O'Driscoll - Perth - 187cm 78kg
15. Nikolas Cox - Northern - 200cm 87kg
16. Jackson Callow - Tas - 194cm 100kg
17. Eddie Ford - Western - 189cm 83kg
18. Tom Powell - Sturt - 183cm 74kg
19. Jack Carroll - East Frem - 187cm 76kg
20. Kaine Baldwin - Glenlg - 193cm 90kg
21. Brandon Walker - East Frem - 183cm 75kg
22. Oliver Davis - Tas - 182cm 75kg
23. Errol Gulden - Sydney A - 175cm 75kg
24. Jack Ginnivan - Bendigo - 183cm 77kg
25. Luke Edwards - Glenlg - 188cm 83kg
26. Finlay Macrae - Oakleigh - 186cm 78kg
27. Brayden Cook - South Adel - 189cm 82kg
28. Bailey Laurie - Oakleigh - 179cm 78kg
29. Caleb Poulter - WWT - 192cm 79kg
30. Connor Downie - Eastern - 185cm 82kg
31. Sam Berry - Gippsland - 181cm 80kg
32. Joel Western - Claremont - 172cm 68kg
33. Zac Dumesny - South Adel - 186cm 80kg
34. Brodie Lake - NT/Peel/Central Dist - 185cm 79kg
35. Blake Coleman - Brisbane A - 180cm 79kg
36. Zane Trew - Swan Dist - 188cm 80kg
37. Zach Reid - Gippsland - 202cm 83kg
38. Cody Brand - Calder - 196cm 87kg
39. Shannon Neale - Sth Frem - 202cm 91kg
40. Charlie Lazzaro - Geelong - 179cm 73kg
41. Isiah Winder - Peel - 180cm 79kg
42. Taj Schofield - WWT - 178cm 72kg
43. Carter Michael - Brisbane A - 188cm 74kg
44. Zavier Maher - Murray - 185cm 82kg
45. Lachlan Carrigan - Sandringham - 191cm 78kg
46. Max Heath - Sandringham - 203cm 94kg
47. Maurice Rioli Jnr - NT - 173cm 73kg
48. Harry Sharp - GWV - 183cm 69kg
49. Jake Bowey - Sandringham - 175cm 67kg
50. Clayton Gay - Dandenong - 184cm 78kg

a couple of state league players i think might get drafted, Tom Highmore and Jackson Ramsay(not going to speculate where they might go).

others outside of the top 50 include, Seamus Mitchell, Luke Pedlar, Henry Walsh, Kalin Lane, Liam McMahon, Sam Collins, Josh Green, Campbell Edwardes, Jackson Cardillo, Jack Avery, James Borlase, Lochlan Jenkins, Max Holmes, Connor Stone.
 
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If you listen to Twomey a lot (which I do), he’s actually argued against JUH being bid on pick 1.

I know it’s a story, and Twomey is always looking for an angle to write about it, but he’s clearly in the “no bid at pick 1” camp.
Think it’s more to do with the optics of a team down the bottom getting pick 1, rather than where he rates JUL’s talent
 
If you listen to Twomey a lot (which I do), he’s actually argued against JUH being bid on pick 1.

I know it’s a story, and Twomey is always looking for an angle to write about it, but he’s clearly in the “no bid at pick 1” camp.
So you think he genuinely rates JUH at 1?
 
So you think he genuinely rates JUH at 1?
I think people need to appreciate Cal for what his strengths actually are - he is a very well connected journalist who specialises in the draft. This means his rankings are indicative of how the generally feel is within the industry, representing a phantom draft, and not a true power rankings.

If you want to know where kids will be picked, you go to Cal. If you want to know about a particular kid, you go to a wide array of other draft watchers who understand individual players on a deeper level.
 

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I think people need to appreciate Cal for what his strengths actually are - he is a very well connected journalist who specialises in the draft. This means his rankings are indicative of how the generally feel is within the industry, representing a phantom draft, and not a true power rankings.

If you want to know where kids will be picked, you go to Cal. If you want to know about a particular kid, you go to a wide array of other draft watchers who understand individual players on a deeper level.
To be fair to Cal he still goes to games on top of this, I’ve certainly seen him at a lot of games. It’s not like his opinions are completely from club recruiters alone.
 
To be fair to Cal he still goes to games on top of this, I’ve certainly seen him at a lot of games. It’s not like his opinions are completely from club recruiters alone.
Oh of course not, I didn't mean to imply that. I just meant that as a draft watcher, he doesn't stand out from the crowd (good, but guys like Knightmare or even yourself I'd trust to know more), but his phantom drafts are better than any because he's arguably the most well connected individual in the industry. Taking his word on individuals talent as gospel is misguided, but you can safely take his word on where a kid is likely to be drafted
 
Oh of course not, I didn't mean to imply that. I just meant that as a draft watcher, he doesn't stand out from the crowd (good, but guys like Knightmare or even yourself I'd trust to know more), but his phantom drafts are better than any because he's arguably the most well connected individual in the industry. Taking his word on individuals talent as gospel is misguided, but you can safely take his word on where a kid is likely to be drafted
Certainly later in the year as information starts to leak out, but with these early ones it's often guys he likes the look of for whatever reason. There's plenty of movement across the season for that reason.
 
Oh of course not, I didn't mean to imply that. I just meant that as a draft watcher, he doesn't stand out from the crowd (good, but guys like Knightmare or even yourself I'd trust to know more), but his phantom drafts are better than any because he's arguably the most well connected individual in the industry. Taking his word on individuals talent as gospel is misguided, but you can safely take his word on where a kid is likely to be drafted

Cal is a good view into how the industry is feeling, i think its a mix of his influence as recruiters respect what he has to say and inside knowledge from the recruiters he talks to, but every recruiter would have a different take, so its never 100%
 
He is a Sydney Academy player, his only knock is his height, really impressive player.



That post was about Corey Durdin, I think Gulden is massively under rated on bigfooty, first game I saw him play he got 36 disposals and kicked 2 goals and since then I have barely seen him have a bad game, whether its in the midfield or as a small forward.

The only knock on Gulden, and it is a big knock, is his height. He is about 173cm I think, and that is very short for an AFL player. If he was 10cm taller he would definitely be in the top 10 this year.
 
The only knock on Gulden, and it is a big knock, is his height. He is about 173cm I think, and that is very short for an AFL player. If he was 10cm taller he would definitely be in the top 10 this year.

yea thats the only reason i have him around pick 20-odd, seriously i would have him around pick 10 if he was 180cm, very talented player and a true footballer
 
yea thats the only reason i have him around pick 20-odd, seriously i would have him around pick 10 if he was 180cm, very talented player and a true footballer

Right now I am thinking Gulden will become a hard running small forward that goes into the midfield in bursts. I suspect he is too short to be full time midfielder in the AFL.
 
The only knock on Gulden, and it is a big knock, is his height. He is about 173cm I think, and that is very short for an AFL player. If he was 10cm taller he would definitely be in the top 10 this year.
Caleb Daniel says hello. Heh. I think if his skills can outweigh his height issue, that's all that matters. No reason he can't grow though.
 
Caleb Daniel says hello. Heh. I think if his skills can outweigh his height issue, that's all that matters. No reason he can't grow though.
Daniel is 1 in 100 though at that height. Plenty of players at 5’8 or less just don’t make it when they get to afl level. I remember adaam maric, who Melbourne took in the first round. He had one the best underage careers of all time and had amazing skills, and he just couldn’t find a place at afl level.
 

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This draft is a tale of ACL's and KPF's

If you're a club looking for an athletic tall forward who can kick 50 goals a year, this is the draft for you.

The Bulldogs get a freebie in JUH, the other obvious choice is Logan McDonald who has put behind his ordinary 2019 season to blow everyone away with his 2020 form in the wafl as one of the leading goal kickers for 2020, one player who could be better than all of them is Kaine Baldwin, i've seen 3 highlight reels of mainly his form as a 16 year old seeing as he has mostly been injured in recent years, but his speed and athletic qualities for a big man were better or at least on par with the other KPF's in the draft, his skills and smarts are also a feature and as ive said before reminds me of a young Jack Riewoldt, but obviously the 2x ACL injuries have people spooked about whether those injuries will hold him back or not or potentially affect his speed?, the other forward who could become a 50 goal tall forward is Jackson Callow, he is more the tall crumbing forward who also has a very strong marking grip, ive seen him in a dozen games and he kicks as many goals from general play as on the mark and i think he is under-rated atm as i have him firmly in the first round contention for a club looking for a flexible KPF option, who could also double as a tall defender?.

I think Riley Thilthorpe is more likely to be a ruck first then a KPF second, but he is also an option and a very skillful, high endurance player who will be a hot commodity also in this draft.
 
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Theres something for everyone in this draft, if youre a club looking for Midfield Talent then these imo are the best options

Will Phillips - inside mid with run, clean disposal usually medium kicks and sharp handballs out of congestion, also provides run and options for team mates and wins most contests, strong for a medium built player and not afraid of the physical stuff, if i had to compare him to someone it would be a Marc Murphy type

Elijah Hollands - even though he has played mostly as a HFF, his midfield games are top shelf, would have played more midfield in 2020 if he didnt do an ACL and the nableague had started, compare his style to a Patrick Dangerfield

Nathan O'Driscoll - country lad who is a bull at the contest type in the Clayton Oliver mould, good long kick and a good runner

Reef McInnes - inside and outside mid, can also kick some freakish goals up forward, aligned to Collingwood, had a stint on the flanks as well last year, can play anywhere and would have won people over this year if it had started

Braeden Campbell - sydney academy hff/wing who runs at a contest kamikaze-like at times, lovely left foot kick and good goal kicker, low production with high impact, can go missing a little in games which is why i dont have him top 5

Tanner Bruhn - has been injured for most of 2019, but shows a lot of class and quality in the couple of games he did play

Tom Powell - bolter from SA, dominating in the sanfl u18's, averaging mid-30 disposals and 9 clearances a game in not the best comp, but he moves really well, has an average physique for a mid, good speed and agility, if he gets an opportunity in the sanfl or in the intra-state games hopefully later in the year it could solidify peoples reads

Alex Davies - likely to get pre-listed by GCS, tall inside mid with clean hands and good disposal, has played well in a few big games so far so a good sign

Zane Trew - looked good in the afl academy game, seems smooth and under control, good goal kicker, not a star, but a good performer from what i have seen

Errol Gulden - love how he plays, quality small mid or small forward, another in the sydney academy, his height holds him back from a top 10 pick, but should get picked up

Oliver Davis - played really tough good footy for Tassie and was a good performer for the afl academy, contested tough player, tackler and clearance winner

Finlay Macrae - played well without starring for Oakleigh, his brother and his improvement are what make people want to take the chance with Finlay and how he might improve

Jack Carroll - silky midfielder, showing good progress at wafl colts level, tallish mid at 188cm and has started kicking a few goals
 
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Will Phillips - inside mid with run, clean disposal usually medium kicks and sharp handballs out of congestion, also provides run and options for team mates and wins most contests, strong for a medium built player and not afraid of the physical stuff, if i had to compare him to someone it would be a Marc Murphy type

Exactly what Sydney needs right there. I hope we can get him. Thanks for the great write up.
 
Davo-27, IMO the class of 2019 was as good as it gets. Most of the top 13 players have the potential to play 200+ AFL games, and I think there will be multiple Brownlows to come from that group.

My armchair look at the potential 2020 draftees has me underwhelmed.

Clearly the lack of games, due to circumstances, has meant that the opportunities for these kids to strut their stuff has not been available. But even when underage the guys of 2019 looked to have the goods.

My question is this: if the 2019 draftees penultimate year before their draft were put up against the 2020 potential draftees on their form from last year, how many of this years group would you put in front of:
Rowell, Anderson, Jackson, Ash, Stephens , McAsey, Young, Serong, Henry, Green, Flanders, Pickett and Day.

That is to say: rank the below against those above.

Will Phillips, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Nathan O'Driscoll, Reef McInness, Tanner Bruhn, Elijah Hollands, R. Thilthorpe, L. Edwards, D. Grainger-Barass, ... or any other player you may want to put in.. e.g. McDonald, Henry, Campbell, Reid, Macrae, etc.

I have found your posts to be well informed and unerringly honest. I am very interested in what you come up with.
 
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Davo-27, IMO the class of 2019 was as good as it gets. Most of the top 13 players have the potential to play 200+ AFL games, and I think there will be multiple Brownlows to come from that group.

My armchair look at the potential 2020 draftees has me underwhelmed.

Clearly the lack of games, due to circumstances, has meant that the opportunities for these kids to strut their stuff has not been available. But even when underage the guys of 2019 looked to have the goods.

My question is this: if the 2019 draftees penultimate year before their draft were put up against the 2020 potential draftees on their form from last year, how many of this years group would you put in front of:
Rowell, Anderson, Jackson, Ash, Stephens , McAsey, Young, Serong, Henry, Green, Flanders, Pickett and Day.

That is to say: rank the below against those above.

Will Phillips, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Nathan O'Driscoll, Reef McInness, Tanner Bruhn, Elijah Hollands, R. Thilthorpe, L. Edwards, D. Grainger-Barass, ... or any other player you may want to put in.. e.g. McDonald, Henry, Campbell, Reid, Macrae, etc.

I have found your posts to be well informed and unerringly honest. I am very interested in what you come up with.

i could write a 1,000 word essay on my reasoning, but i'll try and keep it short.

in 2018 i made a list of players i liked and i think i had around 60% of victorians in my top group for 2019 draft, i made a list in 2019 and i only had 40% of victorians in my top groups for 2020 draft, then i noticed the 2 victorian teams were terrible in the u16's, i came to the conclusion that there was a lack of victorian talent in the 2020 draft pool, which means less depth as Victoria on average contributes 55% of draftees.

if a normal average draft is represented by the value 1, then a strong draft is 1.1 to 1.2 and a weak draft is 0.9 to 0.8 and every decade or so you get a superdraft which is 1.3 to 1.4 in value theres also terrible drafts every decade or so, 2018 was a superdraft, 2019 seems to be a strong draft and 2020 seems to be average imo.

i'll put them in groups of players that i think are of similar ability, from best to worst

mids - Rowell, Phillips, Hollands, Anderson, Green, Serong, McInnes, O'Driscoll, Campbell, Stephens, Bruhn, Powell
tall forw - JUH, McDonald, Georgiades, Baldwin, Callow
small/med forw - L.Henry, Flanders, Pickett, Perkins, Weightman, Ford
tall defenders - Grainger-Barras, McAsey
sml/med defenders - Ash, Young, Day, Edwards
utility - Kemp, O.Henry, Cox, Bergman
rucks - Jackson, Thilthorpe

Picketts value as a pressure forw makes him more valuable, as a pure forw only he would be behind Ford - (supply and demand)

so i did the top 17 or 18 from each draft and where they rank with each other, i swapped Cooper Stephens for Georgiades and i included Baldwin if he wasnt injured with 2 ACL's (he has the potential to be the best tall forw, im just unsure if he gets back to his best or not?), these are my reads, others may disagree.

the top 17 for both drafts are good, its the rest of the draft that makes 2019 slightly stronger than 2020 imo
 
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i could write a 1,000 word essay on my reasoning, but i'll try and keep it short.

in 2018 i made a list of players i liked and i think i had around 60% of victorians in my top group for 2019 draft, i made a list in 2019 and i only had 40% of victorians in my top groups for 2020 draft, then i noticed the 2 victorian teams were terrible in the u16's, i came to the conclusion that there was a lack of victorian talent in the 2020 draft pool, which means less depth as Victoria on average contributes 55% of draftees.

if a normal average draft is represented by the value 1, then a strong draft is 1.1 to 1.2 and a weak draft is 0.9 to 0.8 and every decade or so you get a superdraft which is 1.3 to 1.4 in value theres also terrible drafts every decade or so, 2018 was a superdraft, 2019 seems to be a strong draft and 2020 seems to be average imo.

i'll put them in groups of players that i think are of similar ability, from best to worst

mids - Rowell, Phillips, Hollands, Anderson, Green, Serong, McInnes, O'Driscoll, Campbell, Stephens, Bruhn, Powell
tall forw - JUH, McDonald, Georgiades, Baldwin, Callow
small/med forw - L.Henry, Flanders, Pickett, Perkins, Weightman, FordO
tall defenders - Grainger-Barras, McAsey
sml/med defenders - Ash, Young, Day, Edwards
utility - Kemp, O.Henry, Cox, Bergman
rucks - Jackson, Thilthorpe

Picketts value as a pressure forw makes him more valuable, as a pure forw only he would be behind Ford - (supply and demand)

so i did the top 17 or 18 from each draft and where they rank with each other, i swapped Cooper Stephens for Georgiades and i included Baldwin if he wasnt injured with 2 ACL's (he has the potential to be the best tall forw, im just unsure if he gets back to his best or not?), these are my reads, others may disagree.

the top 17 for both drafts are good, its the rest of the draft that makes 2019 slightly stronger than 2020 imo
Fine work, I got the idea...
 
Jack Carrol? How is he? What’s he like?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Smooth moving mid, i had him at pick 18 in December 1st 2019, recently I put him around 28th pick, he is somewhere in that range I think, good tallish mid with composure and good skills, others who have seen more of him this year have him around the late first, early second round, so i wasn't too far off.
 
i thought i would break up the 2020 draftees into groups, these are the players i like and most got combine invites

Elite Prospects - 1.Will Phillips, 2.Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, 3.Elijah Hollands, 4.Logan McDonald (i think McDonalds performances in the wafl have been good enough to elevate him to the top group)

Top Tier Prospects - 5.Riley Thilthorpe, 6.Denver Grainger-Barras, 7.Archie Perkins, 8.Nathan O'Driscoll, 9.Reef McInnes, 10.Braeden Campbell, 11.Tanner Bruhn, 12.Tom Powell, 13.Kaine Baldwin (Baldwin could be the best KPF in this draft if he stays healthy, i think a club will take the risk, these opportunities dont come along very often)

Highly Talented Prospects - 14.Jackson Callow, 15.Nikolas Cox, 16.Oliver Henry, 17.Luke Edwards, 18.Lachlan Jones, 19.Eddie Ford, 20.Brandon Walker, 21.Finlay Macrae, 22.Jack Carroll, 23.Alex Davies, 24.Zane Trew, 25.Heath Chapman, 26.Zac Dumesny, 27.Errol Gulden, 28.Connor Downie, 29.Oliver Davis, 30.Bailey Laurie

High Potential Prospects - 31.Sam Berry, 32.Corey Durdin, 33.Brayden Cook, 34.Harry Sharp, 35.Jack Ginnivan, 36.Joel Western, 37.Brodie Lake, 38.Caleb Poulter, 39.Shannon Neale, 40.Zac Reid, 41.Cody Brand, 42,Blake Coleman, 43.Isiah Winder, 44.Charlie Lazzaro, 45.Tariek Newchurch, 46.Sam Collins, 47.Carter Michael, 48.Joel Jeffrey, 49.Max Heath, 50.Josh Green, 51.Jackson Cardillo, 52.Liam McMahon, 53.Campbell Edwardes, 54.Zac Phillips, 55.Jake Bowey, 56.Clayton Gay, 57.Taj Schofield, 58.Noah Gadsby, 59.Mani Liddy, 60.Nick Stevens
 
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i thought i would break up the 2020 draftees into groups, these are the players i like and most got combine invites

Elite Prospects - 1.Will Phillips, 2.Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, 3.Elijah Hollands, 4.Logan McDonald (i think McDonalds performances in the wafl have been good enough to elevate him to the top group)

Top Tier Prospects - 5.Riley Thilthorpe, 6.Denver Grainger-Barras, 7.Archie Perkins, 8.Nathan O'Driscoll, 9.Reef McInnes, 10.Braeden Campbell, 11.Tanner Bruhn, 12.Tom Powell, 13.Kaine Baldwin (Baldwin could be the best KPF in this draft if he stays healthy, i think a club will take the risk, these opportunities dont come along very often)

Highly Talented Prospects - 14.Jackson Callow, 15.Nikolas Cox, 16.Oliver Henry, 17.Luke Edwards, 18.Lachlan Jones, 19.Eddie Ford, 20.Brandon Walker, 21.Finlay Macrae, 22.Jack Carroll, 23.Alex Davies, 24.Zane Trew, 25.Heath Chapman, 26.Zac Dumesny, 27.Errol Gulden, 28.Connor Downie, 29.Oliver Davis, 30.Bailey Laurie

High Potential Prospects - 31.Sam Berry, 32.Corey Durdin, 33.Brayden Cook, 34.Harry Sharp, 35.Jack Ginnivan, 36.Joel Western, 37.Brodie Lake, 38.Caleb Poulter, 39.Shannon Neale, 40.Zac Reid, 41.Cody Brand, 42,Blake Coleman, 43.Isiah Winder, 44.Charlie Lazzaro, 45.Tariek Newchurch, 46.Sam Collins, 47.Carter Michael, 48.Joel Jeffrey, 49.Max Heath, 50.Josh Green, 51.Jackson Cardillo, 52.Liam McMahon, 53.Campbell Edwardes, 54.Zac Phillips, 55.Jake Bowey, 56.Clayton Gay, 57.Taj Schofield, 58.Noah Gadsby, 59.Mani Liddy, 60.Nick Stevens
Thanks Davo, I'II have J.Callow, S.Berry & J.Bowey for the Sainter's
 
some dates on intra-state games and combines

NSW - had their games on August 8th and 15th - Combine - Oct 25th
QLD - had their games on August 9th and 16th - Combine - Oct 3rd
NT - Sept 25th - Combine - Oct 3rd with Qld
S.A. - Oct 23rd(weekend of) - Combine - Sept 30th
TAS - Sept 30th - Combine - Sept 21st (week of)
W.A. - Oct 10th and 17th - Combine - Sept 30th
VIC - TBA

W.A. have announced their squad of players (i'll highlight players for this year and 2021 to look out for)

Subiaco - Lachlan Vanirsen, Blake Morris, Tyler Brockman, Sandon Page, Lachlan Henderson, Jaxon McGowan, Matthew Johnson, Nick Martin
East Frem - Brandon Walker, Finn Gorringe, Chris Walker, Keanu Haddow, Ed Curley, Judd McVee, Jack Williams, Josh Browne
Claremont - Kalin Lane, Joel Western, Jake Willson, Jack Avery, Logan Young, Jacob Van Rooyen, Max Spyvee, Logan Guelfi
Swan Dist - Denver Grainger-Barras, Zane Trew, Jamison Ugle, Brodie Morris, Rhett Bazzo, Max Chipper, Will Collins, Ty Sears
Peel - Tyler Nesbitt, Isiah Winder, David Yaccob, Luke Polson
East Perth - Jack Hindle, Kalani Brooks, Jye Amiss, Adam Boules
South Frem - Solomon James, Jaxon Bellchambers, Shannon Neale, Oscar Armstrong, Jonas Brown, Lachlan Turley
Perth - Conor McPhartland, Logan McDonald, Nathan O'Driscoll, Jaiden Hunter, Zak Meloncelli
West Perth - Heath Chapman, Michael Mallard, Kellen Johnson, Corey Rundle, Lachie Paton, Logan Foley, Callum Johnson
 
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