Toast Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - Welcome to the club

[Northernsoul74]

Sydney have confirmed they’ll be bidding.

They did that a few weeks ago didn’t they or is this a more official confirmation.

 

[weltschmerz]

They did that a few weeks ago didn’t they or is this a more official confirmation.

They've contacted us about it, apparently.

 

[Yojimbo]

They did that a few weeks ago didn’t they or is this a more official confirmation.

Off to the North board to talk up Braedon Campbell as a steal at Pick 2.

 

[dogwatch]

Here's the revised table for matched bids on Jamarra. I recalculated some of the lower picks as per the notes below. And I changed the colour of the first column to green so you know which version you're looking at.

We currently have picks 29, 33, 41, 42, 52, 54 and 90.
Pick 90 carries no points value for matching bids, so it can only be used for drafting a player.



How to read it:
The green column shows where a bid might come. I'm assuming it will be no lower than pick 6.
The blue column shows what picks we'll be left with under each of those six scenarios, including a new pick that may be allocated to us for any residual points we have after matching the Jamarra bid.
The orange column shows what the highest bid is we can match for either MacPherson or Raak after matching the JUH bid. There's a decent chance nobody will bid at all but if they did it's unlikely to be under pick 40 so we should be OK to match them in all scenarios except maybe the first one (JUH at pick 1).

Notes on variances (in case you're scratching your head):

• Match at Pick 1 - we convert six separate picks into pick 1 and those six picks are removed from the board so every pick after pick 54 moves up 5 places BUT ... we are allocated a new pick 66 so every pick after that moves back down one place. Hence our pick 90 moves up four places (-5+1) to become pick 86.
• Match at Pick 2 - we convert four separate picks into pick 2 so every pick after pick 42 moves up 3 places but we are allocated a new pick 73 so every pick after that moves back down one place. Hence our pick 90 becomes pick 88. (-3+1)
• Match at Pick 3 - we convert four separate picks into pick 3 so every pick after pick 42 moves up 3 places but we are allocated a new pick 53 so every pick after that moves back down one place. Hence our pick 90 becomes pick 88. (-3+1)
• Match at Pick 4 - we convert three separate picks into pick 4 so every pick after pick 41 moves up 2 places. We have no residual points to create a new pick allocation so pick 90 also moves up two places to become pick 88.
• Match at Pick 5 - we convert three separate picks into pick 5 so every pick after pick 41 moves up 2 places but we are allocated a new pick 62 so every pick after that moves back down one place. Hence our pick 90 becomes pick 89. (-2+1)
• Match at Pick 6 - we convert three separate picks into pick 6 so every pick after pick 41 moves up 2 places but we are allocated a new pick 54 so every pick after that moves back down one place. Hence our pick 90 becomes pick 89. (-2+1)

All of that would be fine but other clubs also have players that will attract bids and they will almost certainly match (eg Reef McInnes). And we may match if there are any bids on MacPherson or Raak. This will create further minor shuffling in the lower rounds of the draft depending on where those players attract a bid, how many picks are used to match and what new picks are allocated from any residue points. That is far too complex to try to wargame here. Our main concern is roughly where we will stand after an early bid on Jamarra.

Suffice to say that the latest trade of picks with GWS puts us in a very solid position. Ideally JUH doesn't attract a bid until at least pick 2, but even if Adelaide does pull the trigger we'll be OK.

 

[D Mitchell]

Here's the revised table for matched bids on Jamarra. I recalculated some of the lower picks as per the notes below. And I changed the colour of the first column to green so you know which version you're looking at.

...

Suffice to say that the latest trade of picks with GWS puts us in a very solid position. Ideally JUH doesn't attract a bid until at least pick 2, but even if Adelaide does pull the trigger we'll be OK.

Very impressive, Dogwatch. Your blue column is my favourite. Now where would a bloke get time to work all that out ? It’d take hours so he couldn’t do it before work. Can’t be at lunchtime, far too short. After dinner perhaps but the precision is unachievable by a tired mind. That leaves, at work. He’s a Public Servant. Narrowing it down a bit more, he’s ABS, his supervisor thinks he’s compiling stats on climate change.

 

[TBOW]

Here's the revised table for matched bids on Jamarra. I recalculated some of the lower picks as per the notes below. And I changed the colour of the first column to green so you know which version you're looking at.

We currently have picks 29, 33, 41, 42, 52, 54 and 90.
Pick 90 carries no points value for matching bids, so it can only be used for drafting a player.

View attachment 1021268

How to read it:
The green column shows where a bid might come. I'm assuming it will be no lower than pick 6.
The blue column shows what picks we'll be left with under each of those six scenarios, including a new pick that may be allocated to us for any residual points we have after matching the Jamarra bid.
The orange column shows what the highest bid is we can match for either MacPherson or Raak after matching the JUH bid. There's a decent chance nobody will bid at all but if they did it's unlikely to be under pick 40 so we should be OK to match them in all scenarios except maybe the first one (JUH at pick 1).

Notes on variances (in case you're scratching your head):

• Match at Pick 1 - we convert six separate picks into pick 1 and those six picks are removed from the board so every pick after pick 54 moves up 5 places BUT ... we are allocated a new pick 66 so every pick after that moves back down one place. Hence our pick 90 moves up four places (-5+1) to become pick 86.
• Match at Pick 2 - we convert four separate picks into pick 2 so every pick after pick 42 moves up 3 places but we are allocated a new pick 73 so every pick after that moves back down one place. Hence our pick 90 becomes pick 88. (-3+1)
• Match at Pick 3 - we convert four separate picks into pick 3 so every pick after pick 42 moves up 3 places but we are allocated a new pick 53 so every pick after that moves back down one place. Hence our pick 90 becomes pick 88. (-3+1)
• Match at Pick 4 - we convert three separate picks into pick 4 so every pick after pick 41 moves up 2 places. We have no residual points to create a new pick allocation so pick 90 also moves up two places to become pick 88.
• Match at Pick 5 - we convert three separate picks into pick 5 so every pick after pick 41 moves up 2 places but we are allocated a new pick 62 so every pick after that moves back down one place. Hence our pick 90 becomes pick 89. (-2+1)
• Match at Pick 6 - we convert three separate picks into pick 6 so every pick after pick 41 moves up 2 places but we are allocated a new pick 54 so every pick after that moves back down one place. Hence our pick 90 becomes pick 89. (-2+1)

All of that would be fine but other clubs also have players that will attract bids and they will almost certainly match (eg Reef McInnes). And we may match if there are any bids on MacPherson or Raak. This will create further minor shuffling in the lower rounds of the draft depending on where those players attract a bid, how many picks are used to match and what new picks are allocated from any residue points. That is far too complex to try to wargame here. Our main concern is roughly where we will stand after an early bid on Jamarra.

Suffice to say that the latest trade of picks with GWS puts us in a very solid position. Ideally JUH doesn't attract a bid until at least pick 2, but even if Adelaide does pull the trigger we'll be OK.

Not sure if I'm reading something wrong but if a player is nominated after pick 18 the discount is 197 points rather than 20% so if we had 89 points left in scenario one I think we could match a bid at 50.

 

[dogwatch]

Very impressive, Dogwatch. Your blue column is my favourite. Now where would a bloke get time to work all that out ? It’d take hours so he couldn’t do it before work. Can’t be at lunchtime, far too short. After dinner perhaps but the precision is unachievable by a tired mind. That leaves, at work. He’s a Public Servant. Narrowing it down a bit more, he’s ABS, his supervisor thinks he’s compiling stats on climate change.

Lol, not even close.
Took about 10 mins to revise the original which itself probably took about half an hour a couple of weeks ago.
The write up takes longer!

 

[dogwatch]

Not sure if I'm reading something wrong but if a player is nominated after pick 18 the discount is 197 points rather than 20% so if we had 89 points left in scenario one I think we could match a bid at 50.

Thanks I’ll check that. The 197 point rule has caught me out before! (slow learner)

 

[D Mitchell]

Lol, not even close.
Took about 10 mins to revise the original which itself probably took about half an hour a couple of weeks ago.
The write up takes longer!

Be gracious, accept a compliment, how else am I going to sneak in my public service and climate change gags ?

 

[Dry Rot]

Suffice to say that the latest trade of picks with GWS puts us in a very solid position.

GWS is a fine club helping us out...

 

[flipper83]

So if a bid comes at 2 or later we can trade out 29 and still match?
I hope we're looking at trades to swap it for a future second. West coast or geelong would probably be keen.

 

[dogwatch]

Not sure if I'm reading something wrong but if a player is nominated after pick 18 the discount is 197 points rather than 20% so if we had 89 points left in scenario one I think we could match a bid at 50.

You're right. We could match pick 50 (not 64) if we had earlier matched a bid of pick 1 for JUH.
The other change is we could match a bid of 26 (not 28) if we had earlier matched a bid at pick 2 for JUH.

All others are unchanged.

Thanks for checking my numbers. I've now updated my full table of draft points so I hope I won't fall for that one again!

 

[Anja_Nees]

I think a bid on pick 3 is fair enough for the club to pay a fair price. Anything earlier is just other clubs being campaigners.

Remember when the Saints bidded on Ace Cordy, we should have let them have him.

Offset somewhat by getting his hulking premiership CHF brother at pick 62.

 

[dogwatch]

So if a bid comes at 2 or later we can trade out 29 and still match?
I hope we're looking at trades to swap it for a future second. West coast or geelong would probably be keen.

I don't think so.
Picks 33,41,42,52 and 54 only add up to 1836. That's enough to cover a bid at pick 3 or lower but not a bid at pick 2 (need 2,014 pts after the 20% discount).

It would also depend on whether we are still allowed to trade after someone has lodged a bid and before deciding whether to match. And that also assumes we have a suitable trading partner.

 

[The Inbetweener]

I don't think so.
Picks 33,41,42,52 and 54 only add up to 1836. That's enough to cover a bid at pick 3 or lower but not a bid at pick 2 (need 2,014 pts after the 20% discount).

It would also depend on whether we are still allowed to trade after someone has lodged a bid and before deciding whether to match. And that also assumes we have a suitable trading partner.

I’m fairly sure you can trade after a bid has been placed. Freo did it last year with Henry when the Blues bid

 

[Bulldogs Legend]

JUH and naughton should compliment each other nicely

Naughton already said in an interview he was impressed with JUH wanting to learn

 

[Bulldogs Legend]

Why all the rumours our top picks want to go elsewhere Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

to the hawks, Jammara to bombers, Richards to the pies. I can understand the go home factor for Tim and Astro and the bombers blindsided us throwing heaps money at Dunkley. Surely the first 3 are just made up rumours.

Just BF BS!

 

[Bulldogs Legend]

We're bringing in more than a footballer, but an ambassador for young people from humble backgrounds.
I'm curious as to how he got on with some of the "born-to-rule" elements at Scotch College.

About as well as my bomber Twitter friends

 

[Bulldogs Legend]

Following our trade of pick 26 for picks 29 & 52 with GWS this is the updated table of possibilities. I'm assuming JUH won't slip any further than 6th which is Essadun's first pick.

We currently have picks 29,33,41,42,52,54 and 90.


View attachment 1021149


The first column shows where the bid comes for JUH. The blue column shows what picks we'd be left with if that happened. The final column shows the highest bid we could still match for either Raak or MacPherson (if we wanted to) with the remaining points. However I'd be surprised if a bid came for either of them before about 40 (if at all).

The key point is that even with a bid at pick 1 we now won't go into a deficit of points that would affect the position of our 2021 first round pick.

NB: The later picks could slide up or down depending on a range of other possible matched bids for FS and Academy players. Far too many permutations to list here.

Ned Guy wants your help so don’t answer any odd looking numbers

 

[Bro_Pro]

From the AFL website today!! Love the comments about him texting Naughts
195cm/90kg
4/4/02
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro
Key forward

Ugle-Hagan's deeds as a 17-year-old last season see him retain his place at the top of the Phantom Form Guide throughout 2020. The key forward kicked 24 goals from nine games for the Oakleigh Chargers last year and dominated inside 50. He's quick (he ran 2.90 seconds in the 20-metre sprint at the Combine), strong on the lead and has a long left foot. The Western Bulldogs' Next Generation Academy prospect isn't shy of confidence either, at one stage texting Bulldogs star Aaron Naughton

33

Aaron Naughton

Age

24

Ht

196cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

4.9

5star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.8

4star

D

6.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.3

2star

M

2.5

3star

T

0.8

1star

G

0.5

4star

D

12.8

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

0.0

1star

some forward craft advice this season ahead of a game. They will be a forward pair to fear for some time.

Where does he go? He's off to the Dogs, it's just a matter of when the bid comes. Adelaide is considering calling his name at No.1 but if not, one of North Melbourne (at No.2) or Sydney (No.3) will do the honours.

 

[godoggies15]

Swans commit to bid on Ugle-Hagan if he's available at pick No.3

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is set to slip no further than pick No.3 in next Wednesday night's national draft, with Sydney committing to bidding on the Western Bulldogs' academy prospect if he is still available at the Swans' first selection.

www.theage.com.au

 

[TBOW]

So if a bid comes at 2 or later we can trade out 29 and still match?
I hope we're looking at trades to swap it for a future second. West coast or geelong would probably be keen.

Not quite. But we could offer Adelaide 29 for 40 and a future third which would guarantee a pick at 2 and leave us with enough points to match for JUH with pick 52 coming back as change. Could be a good result depending how active we want to be in this draft. Don't know if Adelaide would be keen though.

 

[TBOW]

You're right. We could match pick 50 (not 64) if we had earlier matched a bid of pick 1 for JUH.
The other change is we could match a bid of 26 (not 28) if we had earlier matched a bid at pick 2 for JUH.

All others are unchanged.

Thanks for checking my numbers. I've now updated my full table of draft points so I hope I won't fall for that one again!

It is such a confusing system. The real fun comes when the bids start coming and picks start getting created and chewed up. How anyone is supposed to plan for that is beyond me.

My new query is when we match a bid for JUH do all the picks needed to match get wiped out instantly? Or do they get taken one at a time, thereby bringing every subsequent pick forward one in the draft.

On the flip side, when we bid we create a pick at wherever JUH is nominated so do all our picks get bumped back one place at that point before we use them to match?

Who has the answers??

 

[dogwatch]

It is such a confusing system. The real fun comes when the bids start coming and picks start getting created and chewed up. How anyone is supposed to plan for that is beyond me.

My new query is when we match a bid for JUH do all the picks needed to match get wiped out instantly? Or do they get taken one at a time, thereby bringing every subsequent pick forward one in the draft.

On the flip side, when we bid we create a pick at wherever JUH is nominated so do all our picks get bumped back one place at that point before we use them to match?

Who has the answers??

Not me!
I’d been wondering the same thing. I have been working on it being all one composite transaction rather than 6 or 7 discrete ones. That would mean all picks hold their value from the moment we start matching, and the repositioning of picks only takes placed after the matching has been done.

That would be fairest, simplest and most logical (which means they’ll probably do it another way).

 

[WeedsMullet84]

This is just an FYI, don't bite my head off.

Interview with Matthew Nicks

Matthew Nicks

Age

48

Ht

187cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.6

3star

K

9.4

4star

HB

4.2

3star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.7

4star

G

0.7

4star

No current season stats available

D

6.6

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

2.2

3star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.4

3star

this morning where he's basically confirmed Crows will bid on JUH with Pick 1