Traded Jordan Dawson traded to Adelaide for F1 (Melb)

[Joey JoJo Jr Shabadoo]

Only bright side out of this deal for the Swans is just further re-enforcing the need for academies in non-traditional states.

Finlayson, M.Kennedy, Setterfield and Zac Williams were all GWS academy players who requested trades interstate. The academy system isn’t a solution to player retention issues.

 

[1970crow]

Ok, what if the top 4 clubs talent order didn't rate either player in the top 4?

Irrelevant, that's a judgement call. The only thing that matters is how many players have been removed from the total pool when you get your player. The value of the pick is 1 plus that number. If the guy you had at 1 is there at 10, the value of the pick hasn't changed. Nor did we end up having pick 10 instead of 44 in Sloane's draft year because he turned out to be the 10th best player of the class.

 

[Crow till I die]

Irrelevant, that's a judgement call. The only thing that matters is how many players have been removed from the total pool when you get your player. The value of the pick is 1 plus that number. If the guy you had at 1 is there at 10, the value of the pick hasn't changed. Nor did we end up having pick 10 instead of 44 in Sloane's draft year because he turned out to be the 10th best player of the class.

But you are missing the point that no-one might pick up the father son players and academy players if they don't rate them (not saying they won't pick them up) and then every pick stays at the pick number - but it is a live scenario until the picks are selected who knows when the pick order changes

 

[Jars458]

Name me an issue discussed that everyone has agreed upon.

He was being funny by disagreeing that we disagree. I think.

 

[1970crow]

Can we agree he was rated at better than #18?

we bid at 1, that's his value. We got to select our 2nd choice, that values our pick at 2.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Can we agree he was rated at better than #18?

Absolutely.

 

[OnlyPowerForever]

Irrelevant, that's a judgement call. The only thing that matters is how many players have been removed from the total pool when you get your player. The value of the pick is 1 plus that number. If the guy you had at 1 is there at 10, the value of the pick hasn't changed. Nor did we end up having pick 10 instead of 44 in Sloane's draft year because he turned out to be the 10th best player of the class.

People just don't understand that logic.

I keep seeing comments on subjective rank based on quality, whereas draft picks are based on order selected.
It's why every year, player X selected at 80-something was a "steal" as they had him listed in the top 30.
Every team has the ability to pick any available player in the draft. If you have to wait for 19 players to go before your pick #17, it's a pick #20.

 

[Maddogmetro]

But you are missing the point that no-one might pick up the father son players and academy players if they don't rate them (not saying they won't pick them up) and then every pick stays at the pick number - but it is a live scenario until the picks are selected who knows when the pick order changes

FFS this argument went on for pages on our board. Don't bring this s**t to the main board.

 

[Crow till I die]

People just don't understand that logic.

I keep seeing comments on subjective rank based on quality, whereas draft picks are based on order selected.
It's why every year, player X selected at 80-something was a "steal" as they had him listed in the top 30.
Every team has the ability to pick any available player in the draft. If you have to wait for 19 players to go before your pick #17, it's a pick #20.

True - but in our case it is just assumed it will drop from pick 4 to pick 6..but no one knows that till draft night as North might pick JHF, GWS pick Mac Andrew, GC pick Gibcus and the crows pick Callaghan at pick 4 so that pick 4 never ends up being pick 6

 

[OnlyPowerForever]

True - but in our case it is just assumed it will drop from pick 4 to pick 6..but no one knows that till draft night as North might pick JHF, GWS pick Mac Andrew, GC pick Gibcus and the crows pick Callaghan at pick 4 so that pick 4 never ends up being pick 6

It might, of course, but its doubtful it will, is what the consensus is.

 

[1970crow]

But you are missing the point that no-one might pick up the father son players and academy players if they don't rate them (not saying they won't pick them up) and then every pick stays at the pick number - but it is a live scenario until the picks are selected who knows when the pick order changes

Exactly, the value of the pick only changes when it's pushed back. So knowing that 11 players will be removed by the time someone with 10 selects values that pick at 12. If bids aren't matched and the extra players aren't removed then the full value of the pick is retained.

In terms of not knowing, you can't be serious. Pies and Dogs are siting with second rounders and are 100% certain will get 2 of the top handful between them. Even though it hasn't happened, the value of the pick has lessened. Trying to suggest it doesn't happen in terms of value assessment until it's happened is absurd. Everyone with a pick 8 and later in the first round know that they'll be selecting 2 later than their finishing position afforded them.

 

[master bate]

Not sure why people take into account F/S and Academy Players when evaluating draft picks.

If it’s pick 18, it may blow out to pick 20 but you will be getting the 18th best AVAILABLE player.

F/S and Academy players were never available to all but one club.

It's worth considering at the top end, or under the old rules that saw picks slide 5+ places like last year. Not so much when it's 1 or 2 spots in the teens.

Clearly there's a variation between each draft and where the strengths lie, but if you've got what you hope to be a top end future pick (ie. top 7) and you think there's maybe 3-5 elite prospects in most drafts who usually go somewhere in the top 7 you want to know how many of them are open to all clubs and how many:
A) won't be open
B) will push your pick down

If the draft follows a bell curve then averaging out year on year the elite talent will be somewhat consistent.

2018 superdraft for now seems to have 8 - the top 8, plus maybe Blakey. 2016/2017 now looking like 3 each in the top 10 that standout. 5 in 2015, 3 in 2014.

Sure you don't get any difference to the group you can pick from but I'd want to know if my pick will be outside the range of guys who are considered the clear standouts. This year draft seems to be a top 2, then Darcy, then Callaghan. Getting pushed outside that group makes a difference.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

That prick is dead to me. I'm over him.

 

[Deccas]

While there is truth in your comments, ie our midfield is our weakness, this is exactly why we cannot trade out pick 4 in our rebuild for a winger/ flanker.

Meanwhile Sydney has been fortunate to stay relevant thanks to academy players (for late points, trading first rounders into future to keep high picks for the open draft).

Having access to Heeney, Mills, Naismith, Blakey, Campbell, Gulden, makes a HUGE difference to your rebuild after 2016 loss. I don't begrudge the concept, but it is not equitable in the league, so perhaps hold your powder dry in list criticism of a team that is rebuilding via the draft and trades, with no leg up.

You should probably observe and over time formulate what you think the best way to rebuild is and whether we succeed or fail. Getting a gun mid is the essential step, we're not getting him at pick 14 though (Sydney pick)!

I have no problem with Swans being upset we are poaching your winger though



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Good post.

Yeah the academy is absolutely integral to the swans being in a good spot. Losing Mitchell and Dawson (among others) is a good example of what it's trying to address as well.

In saying that, the draft is far less predictable than it's given credit for. Of our current midfield, particularly the young ones, only Mills was a high pick.

My retort was mostly a big at the general big footy cry of "you don't watch my team" as though most people are yearning to spend 30 hours a week watching everyone play instead of turning on for thier own team most weeks, and maybe a few other good matches throughout the year.

 

[drcollossimo]

Dawson doesn't give a fu** what Port offer. He picked the Crows. He won't change his mind based on what Port will give Sydney.

Cool story pretty sure he doesn’t want to spend the next 2 months in limbo as an offcut because the crows told him he was their man only for them to you know not pay a market rate for him and put him in that situation

You’ve got no credibility here friend after the Hately Bs last year

 

[Duskfire]

Good post.

Yeah the academy is absolutely integral to the swans being in a good spot. Losing Mitchell and Dawson (among others) is a good example of what it's trying to address as well.

In saying that, the draft is far less predictable than it's given credit for. Of our current midfield, particularly the young ones, only Mills was a high pick.

My retort was mostly a big at the general big footy cry of "you don't watch my team" as though most people are yearning to spend 30 hours a week watching everyone play instead of turning on for thier own team most weeks, and maybe a few other good matches throughout the year.

Even that isn't a guarantee. I watch close to every game due to the amount I run, and I get 90% of what I predict wrong.

 

[George Kramer]

Cool story pretty sure he doesn’t want to spend the next 2 months in limbo as an offcut because the crows told him he was their man only for them to you know not pay a market rate for him and put him in that situation

You’ve got no credibility here friend after the Hately Bs last year

Whats Dawson’s market rate?

 

[Marcel Proust]

Are you suggesting Sydney just delist him or we walk him to the PSD?

Welcome to north

 

[Marcel Proust]

Cool story pretty sure he doesn’t want to spend the next 2 months in limbo as an offcut because the crows told him he was their man only for them to you know not pay a market rate for him and put him in that situation

You’ve got no credibility here friend after the Hately Bs last year

This might be a factor considering , it seems like ccj didn't want to go via the psd.

It can be stressful not knowing your future clearly so it could make some sense

 

[Makeshift Park]

I’m still trying to work out what his fixation on an Adelaide club is about. So he reckons he wants to be closer to his family in Robe, which is fine, I get it.
But it’s a what… 3.5 hours drive away? If you’re on his salary, why aren’t you just flying from Mt Gambier for an hour (or whatever it is) whenever you damn well please?
And more to the point, if you’re willing to do that, what’s an extra five minutes in the air to get you to Melbourne?

 

[Bearded Clam]

I’m still trying to work out what his fixation on an Adelaide club is about. So he reckons he wants to be closer to his family in Robe, which is fine, I get it.
But it’s a what… 3.5 hours drive away? If you’re on his salary, why aren’t you just flying from Mt Gambier for an hour (or whatever it is) whenever you damn well please?
And more to the point, if you’re willing to do that, what’s an extra five minutes in the air to get you to Melbourne?

Maybe, like most people that visit the place, he thinks melbourne is an absolute shithole and he doesnt want to live there..

he probably also wants to play for the club he grew up supporting and his entire family go for.

given he boardered at scotch.. he’s probably also got a heap of mates in Adelaide..

 

[LoBu]

I’m still trying to work out what his fixation on an Adelaide club is about. So he reckons he wants to be closer to his family in Robe, which is fine, I get it.
But it’s a what… 3.5 hours drive away? If you’re on his salary, why aren’t you just flying from Mt Gambier for an hour (or whatever it is) whenever you damn well please?
And more to the point, if you’re willing to do that, what’s an extra five minutes in the air to get you to Melbourne?

Family in Robe, but it's not hard to imagine many of his mates and family have moved to Adelaide, it's a natural progression for young people to move to the city for uni, life, etc. Some will move back to the country over time. Family and friends in Robe can drive up to watch the game every other weekend.

Not hard to think that Adelaide is an extension of home, but I have no particularly knowledge here, just speculation.


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[Crow till I die]

around 25 seconds in..

 

[FreeAgent1]

If the deal tomorrow is:

Swans: get pick 33, melbF1 and crows F2
crows: Dawson, 39 and swans future 2nd

do both parties take it?

 

[Bearded Clam]

around 25 seconds in..

Theres little chance swans will say no to a first round draft pick and simply let him go for nothing.. it would be utterly ludicrous to cut off your nose to spite your face like that..

They’ll begrudgingly take the dees 20221st round pick when push comes to shove and who knows, dees might have a premiership hangover next year… not many teams have gone back to back after their first GF win in a while…

lions and crows were the last to do so..

tigers won in 2017.. then bombed out in 2018 before returnkng in 2019/20.

hawks won in 08.. the missed out for a few before coming back in 12,13,14..

that young essendon team in 2000 looked so unbelievably dominant you’d have thought they’d win the next four.. they didnt.

Anything can happen.. but the odds are against the dees if you look at the past 25 years… only two teams have done it..

 

[Makeshift Park]

Maybe, like most people that visit the place, he thinks melbourne is an absolute shithole and he doesnt want to live there..

he probably also wants to play for the club he grew up supporting and his entire family go for.

given he boardered at scotch.. he’s probably also got a heap of mates in Adelaide..

Scotch. Hmm. Where have I heard that name before?
Wait a minute, wasn’t that Callum Coleman-jones’ school?