Analysis Ladder vs Top Eight

Remove this Banner Ad

philohk

on holiday by mistake
Jun 18, 2008
1,328
834
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I did this last year for a bit of a diversion and was bored enough to do it again.

1601467288547.png

  • Brisbane is either a very good side or flattered by their draw.
  • Percentage is often said to be a strong indicator of a flag side, which suggests Richmond and Geelong will be hard to beat. But Geelong was the clear leader in this last year (136.5%, next best 109) and look how that went. Maybe a result of the Tigers' injury blip.
  • On the other hand, Port's percentage is higher than only the Bulldogs'.
  • Collingwood has a strong record, but a couple of costly losses have seen them get a Perth trip that might do them in.
  • The Bulldogs are the clear outlier, a bit like Essendon last year (who were 2-7). Are they good enough to be there? 1-6 might suggest no, but 9-1 against non-finalists suggests yes. Another example of the value of consistently beating sides below you.
  • Last year, Essendon was beaten easily in their EF, but they were eighth and playing a very good fifth side (West Coast) at an away ground. Bit harder to see that happening this week.
  • The Dogs' record makes for the only difference between the 'eight' here and the real one, with them dropping out and GWS coming in.
  • Only one side was winless against finalists last year (Melbourne at 0-11) - not sure how often there are two, but I'd guess not very.
Thoughts? Any surprises? Does this provide any predictive value for finals?
 

JasRulz63

Norm Smith Medallist
May 26, 2007
9,050
8,506
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Every single one of those 5 top 8 victories for Brisbane was at the Gabba, every single one.

The only top 8 matches Brisbane played away from the Gabba (Geelong and Richmond) they lost comprehensively.
That's okay, I'm happy if win all our games at the Gabba and nowhere else for the next month or so.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

TedDougChris

Premium Platinum
Mar 10, 2007
30,525
43,928
Melbourne
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Charlton Athletic, Roys FFC
Dogs only have themselves to blame, should have beaten both Geelong and Port - but couldn’t get it done.

Hopefully they have learnt.

We played Pies and Saints early - they were very good, we were terrible.

This week will show if we have improved
 

jsdsgn

All Australian
Oct 29, 2018
963
1,301
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Lakers
Would love to see what the vs top 8 ladder says historically about finals success.
I remember in 2018 we were criticised for not having beaten good sides.
Think we hadnt lost a game to a bottom 10 side but had only won 1 or 2 against the top 8.
We were competitive in all of those games though, and i didnt feel we couldnt do it.
We ultimately fell short but I wouldnt ever look too far into the H&A season - finals are a different ball game and Richmond have proved that 2 of the last 3 years, by having just decent seasons and then exploding come finals time.
 

Power Raid

TheBrownDog
Oct 15, 2004
68,269
57,892
West Perth
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I did this last year for a bit of a diversion and was bored enough to do it again.

View attachment 974263
  • Brisbane is either a very good side or flattered by their draw.
  • Percentage is often said to be a strong indicator of a flag side, which suggests Richmond and Geelong will be hard to beat. But Geelong was the clear leader in this last year (136.5%, next best 109) and look how that went. Maybe a result of the Tigers' injury blip.
  • On the other hand, Port's percentage is higher than only the Bulldogs'.
  • Collingwood has a strong record, but a couple of costly losses have seen them get a Perth trip that might do them in.
  • The Bulldogs are the clear outlier, a bit like Essendon last year (who were 2-7). Are they good enough to be there? 1-6 might suggest no, but 9-1 against non-finalists suggests yes. Another example of the value of consistently beating sides below you.
  • Last year, Essendon was beaten easily in their EF, but they were eighth and playing a very good fifth side (West Coast) at an away ground. Bit harder to see that happening this week.
  • The Dogs' record makes for the only difference between the 'eight' here and the real one, with them dropping out and GWS coming in.
  • Only one side was winless against finalists last year (Melbourne at 0-11) - not sure how often there are two, but I'd guess not very.
Thoughts? Any surprises? Does this provide any predictive value for finals?
can you do my footy tipping next year?
 

SloppyJoe

Premiership Player
Mar 1, 2011
4,966
5,028
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Leeds United
Gee West Coast really are flat track bullies aren't they
FTBs is a bit of a stretch but our record sure doesn't stack up against how we went in 2018 (6-3 before finals).

A concern to be sure, particularly when our opponent this week has a marginally better record against the top 8.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

telsor

Hall of Famer
Aug 29, 2004
32,531
30,909
Here
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Habs
I did this last year for a bit of a diversion and was bored enough to do it again.

View attachment 974263
  • Brisbane is either a very good side or flattered by their draw.
  • Percentage is often said to be a strong indicator of a flag side, which suggests Richmond and Geelong will be hard to beat. But Geelong was the clear leader in this last year (136.5%, next best 109) and look how that went. Maybe a result of the Tigers' injury blip.
  • On the other hand, Port's percentage is higher than only the Bulldogs'.
  • Collingwood has a strong record, but a couple of costly losses have seen them get a Perth trip that might do them in.
  • The Bulldogs are the clear outlier, a bit like Essendon last year (who were 2-7). Are they good enough to be there? 1-6 might suggest no, but 9-1 against non-finalists suggests yes. Another example of the value of consistently beating sides below you.
  • Last year, Essendon was beaten easily in their EF, but they were eighth and playing a very good fifth side (West Coast) at an away ground. Bit harder to see that happening this week.
  • The Dogs' record makes for the only difference between the 'eight' here and the real one, with them dropping out and GWS coming in.
  • Only one side was winless against finalists last year (Melbourne at 0-11) - not sure how often there are two, but I'd guess not very.
Thoughts? Any surprises? Does this provide any predictive value for finals?

AFL bias and corruption on display here!

All the teams that made finals only played 7 teams that made the 8, while those that missed out played 8!

The fix is clearly in!
 

cherrypie

Team Captain
Oct 28, 2017
422
1,443
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Dogs only have themselves to blame, should have beaten both Geelong and Port - but couldn’t get it done.

Hopefully they have learnt.

We played Pies and Saints early - they were very good, we were terrible.

This week will show if we have improved
Also didn't help that we played Richmond-Port-Brisbane consecutively with short breaks in-between. All in different cities too, was a tough stretch
 

PowerForGood

2020. The year the competition became terminal. Ju
Sep 1, 2006
16,849
15,378
Adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Liverpool, Lakers, Rabbitohs
Also didn't help that we played Richmond-Port-Brisbane consecutively with short breaks in-between. All in different cities too, was a tough stretch
What team DIDN'T have short breaks and tough stretches then?

You played in Brisbane on the Thursday, 6 days to the Wed, then 5 days break to us in Adelaide on the Monday.
We played in Adelaide on the Saturday, 5 days to the Thu in Brisbane, and then a 4 day break back to Adelaide on the aforementioned Monday.

Its just how it goes.
 

PowerForGood

2020. The year the competition became terminal. Ju
Sep 1, 2006
16,849
15,378
Adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Liverpool, Lakers, Rabbitohs
AFL bias and corruption on display here!

All the teams that made finals only played 7 teams that made the 8, while those that missed out played 8!

The fix is clearly in!
I get the joke.... but interesting that 7 of the 8 finals teams, all achieved a better record in 7 games against the top 8, than the other teams with 8 games against the top 8.
Maybe we need a ladder against the bottom 10, to see how large that gap really is.
 

cherrypie

Team Captain
Oct 28, 2017
422
1,443
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
What team DIDN'T have short breaks and tough stretches then?

You played in Brisbane on the Thursday, 6 days to the Wed, then 5 days break to us in Adelaide on the Monday.
We played in Adelaide on the Saturday, 5 days to the Thu in Brisbane, and then a 4 day break back to Adelaide on the aforementioned Monday.

Its just how it goes.
I understand that, it's not a complaint. Just pointing out that we faced three very good sides in the difficult part of our fixture. Not like we had to play North or something in our most congested period
 

telsor

Hall of Famer
Aug 29, 2004
32,531
30,909
Here
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Habs
I get the joke.... but interesting that 7 of the 8 finals teams, all achieved a better record in 7 games against the top 8, than the other teams with 8 games against the top 8.
Maybe we need a ladder against the bottom 10, to see how large that gap really is.
Joke?
 

WN123

Club Legend
Mar 5, 2008
1,165
222
Victoria
AFL Club
Essendon
Also didn't help that we played Richmond-Port-Brisbane consecutively with short breaks in-between. All in different cities too, was a tough stretch
What’s that? 2 short breaks in a row? Essendon had 7 consecutive 5 day breaks. And games in Darwin, Adelaide, Qld, back to Adelaide, back to Qld in that time.
 
Last edited:

aussierulesrules

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 7, 2011
29,014
52,868
Heaven. I mean Victoria.
AFL Club
St Kilda
What team DIDN'T have short breaks and tough stretches then?

You played in Brisbane on the Thursday, 6 days to the Wed, then 5 days break to us in Adelaide on the Monday.
We played in Adelaide on the Saturday, 5 days to the Thu in Brisbane, and then a 4 day break back to Adelaide on the aforementioned Monday.

Its just how it goes.
It also doesn't explain their percentage of 66% v the other teams in the finals, which is almost 30% worse than the next worst (of teams who made the 8).
 

Remove this Banner Ad