Speculation Liam Baker

[Jeremias]

Time for some house cleaning.

1) Do not drag discussions or individual posts over here from other threads or boards.

Feel free to respond to those posts wherever they were posted, if you so choose.

2) Enough with the personal attacks. It’s a long season and this one may go the distance, so if you want to remain a part of the discussion, do it respectfully.

We will use thread bans and infractions if necessary.

 

[Alfonz]

I don't think anybody at St.kilda or Fremantle thought Blake would get to this level.

That is a credit to Carlton and Vossy for getting the best out of him

But yes I don't think a 3rd will cut it lol.

I think he ends up at West Coast just a gut feel and will be a first involved with probably a pick coming back I would think

Acres is playing essentially the same at Carlton as he did in his last year at Freo. Maybe slightly improved, but it was Freo who unlocked his potential and best position, not Carlton/Voss.

 

[thistimeforsure]

Fortunately for Richmond fans, I don't think their list management team is silly enough to accept a future 3rd round pick.

Bah all their good operators are gone and they seem just as dopey as everyone else now

Blakers = Bakers … git er done


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[Kreuuuzeurns]

It's a guide. I think as a half back he is one of the best in the comp and somewhere inside top 50. As a utility somewhere 50-100 easily.

Top 50 in the AFL means that individual would be on average a top 2-3 player at any club in the comp.

Baker is a ripping player but he is not that.

Not that it matters, he is still worth a pick within the first round.

 

[juss]

Top 50 in the AFL means that individual would be on average a top 2-3 player at any club in the comp.

If you're a top 2-3 player at any club in the comp, you're a top 10 player in the league.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

If you're a top 2-3 player at any club in the comp, you're a top 10 player in the league.

50 players / 18 clubs = 2.7 players per club on avg. I’m no math genius so maybe I’ve got that wrong or used that incorrectly.

Baker would be a 4-7 at Richmond who have a weaker top end these days. I don’t think he fits into a top 50 league wide like the poster suggested.

 

[Jeremias]

Acres is playing essentially the same at Carlton as he did in his last year at Freo. Maybe slightly improved, but it was Freo who unlocked his potential and best position, not Carlton/Voss.

Acres 'broke out' in his final year at Fremantle. Given he did that at 26 you'd be forgiven for thinking it was a flash in the pan, but he has elevated again at Carlton, albeit only slightly.

He's now right up there with the best specialist wings in the competition, particularly defensively.

Bah all their good operators are gone and they seem just as dopey as everyone else now

Blakers = Bakers … git er done

Good luck! I think most fairly accept that Baker's worth something in the range of a mid-late first round pick.

 

[juss]

50 players / 18 clubs = 2.7 players per club on avg. I’m no math genius so maybe I’ve got that wrong or used that incorrectly.

Baker would be a 4-7 at Richmond who have a weaker top end these days. I don’t think he fits into a top 50 league wide like the poster suggested.

It's not the maths necessarily but if you're that good at every club, you're a star. It means you're probably as good as great teams star players, or near enough.

Either way, to get a pick in the mid - high teens doesn't take a star necessarily. It takes someone that adds value and a club that wants him and can afford to pay that.

Freo is that club IMO. They won't risk losing him to West Coast unless he adamantly nominates the Eagles, then given they are unlikely to split their pick for Baker, we probably get a 2nd and a Future 2nd, maybe a future 3rd going back.

 

[tiger_tough]

Top 50 in the AFL means that individual would be on average a top 2-3 player at any club in the comp.

Baker is a ripping player but he is not that.

Not that it matters, he is still worth a pick within the first round.

I said top 50 as a half back. He's not playing there atm.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I said top 50 as a half back. He's not playing there atm.

You are underselling him then.

He is certainly in the top 50 half backs and an all but elite “utility”

 

[Shueygod]

I said top 50 as a half back. He's not playing there atm.

He’s not even close to top 50, GWS alone would have ten better players.

 

[Barrybran]

If you're a top 2-3 player at any club in the comp, you're a top 10 player in the league.

 

[tiger_tough]

You are underselling him then.

He is certainly in the top 50 half backs and an all but elite “utility”

He’s not even close to top 50, GWS alone would have ten better players.

Like I said earlier, he's already rated inside the top 50 in the official player ratings system this season. Take it up with the AFL/Champion data.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Like I said earlier, he's already rated inside the top 50 in the official player ratings system this season. Take it up with the AFL/Champion data.

AFL/Champion Data, you’re cooked.

 

[tiger_tough]

AFL/Champion Data, you’re cooked.

It's just a guide, but a guide that holds much more weight than your opinion.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

It's just a guide, but a guide that holds much more weight than your opinion.

It’s one guide

 

[ROO DOGG]

If you're a top 2-3 player at any club in the comp, you're a top 10 player in the league.

Good maths.

 

[ROO DOGG]

think he still thinks its the VFL

 

[THE_GUN]

Jack Martin and Jackson Hatley are recent players who have gone done this route. Clubs wanted first round picks for them, the other team offered 2nds so off they went to the PSD.

Not saying it will happen but I can and has. Eagles are very fair traders and the relationship of Clark and Tigers is an another reason it won’t but there is a price and the Tigers don’t hold all the cards. (If Baker chooses to leave and nominates a club)

You must be new to afl football and dont know Liam Baker
or simply just an antagonist

 

[THE_GUN]

WCE finally landed a decent list manager. He won’t be splitting or trading that first round pick.

That could be 100% true and Ralphy actually mentioned that West Coast have not tabled an offer to Liam Baker but Fremantle have.

Im just hoping its not big enough to make him move and stays a Richmond player
If a team had 10 Liam Bakers they would win alot of premierships

The man has got massive courage dedication and leads by example

 

[THE_GUN]

Yeah if the Eagles think they offer fair value and Richmond still reject it…..

And you really believe he will get to the eagles with North , Hawks & Richmond to pass on him ?

 

[juss]

Good maths.

Yeh I think its been taken literally as a mathematical equation rather than a generalisation, but I guess general statements don't come through on online forums which I've missed lol.

It's a rough generalisation given teams top 2-3 players aren't all equal standing and not every team has players in the top 10.

 

[MisterMarcus]

And you really believe he will get to the eagles with North , Hawks & Richmond to pass on him ?

All three have enough list issues to worry about without taking a player who openly doesn't want to be there.

If he went in the PSD he'd get to WCE.

Not that I expect it to come to that - Richmond and WCE should work something sensible out. But if Richmond did hypothetically demand something ridiculous like a Top 5 pick and change, then PSD would be viable as a last resort option and he'd get to WCE.

 

[juss]

All three have enough list issues to worry about without taking a player who openly doesn't want to be there.

If he went in the PSD he'd get to WCE.

Not that I expect it to come to that - Richmond and WCE should work something sensible out. But if Richmond did hypothetically demand something ridiculous like a Top 5 pick and change, then PSD would be viable as a last resort option and he'd get to WCE.

We can speculate hypotheticals on any possible scenario, but in reality Richmond are never going to ask for a top 5 pick for Baker.

We'll either get a fair trade or slight unders, but I really don't see it going to the PSD. Baker has to agree to that too and there's no reason he wouldn't want his current club fairly compensated, that's often a request they make to their management too. Callum Coleman-Jones did the exact same thing and we got their future 2nd, Tarrant and some late pick swaps, whilst on Bigfooty many NM fans were still floating the "we'll just take him in the PSD" but reports were CCJ didn't want to go that way, despite it being incredibly easy as I think NM would have held the first PSD pick.

Baker's played in multiple flags with us and we gave him a chance as a rookie, he's not going to burn us, if he leaves he'll probably have a similar request that he wants his current club to get something back.

I'm still sticking to this as the likelyhood of scenarios

1. Goes to Freo for a pick in the teens (~15) or their worst 1st round pick they have.
2. Goes to West Coast for a current 2nd and F2 with Richmond sending a F3 back
3. Goes to West Coast for a pick in the teens and they split their first pick, turning say pick 5 into pick 10 + Baker and maybe pick 16 goes to Richmond.
4. He stays at Richmond
5. Richmond trade him for well unders like a single R2 pick from either Freo or WC.




6. He leaves via the PSD

 

[THE_GUN]

All three have enough list issues to worry about without taking a player who openly doesn't want to be there.

If he went in the PSD he'd get to WCE.

Not that I expect it to come to that - Richmond and WCE should work something sensible out. But if Richmond did hypothetically demand something ridiculous like a Top 5 pick and change, then PSD would be viable as a last resort option and he'd get to WCE.

Richmond wont get a top 5 pick and they wouldnt expect that (they may ask for it as a starter just for sh!ts and giggs) but realistically just about everybody knows the rough trade value being anywhere between 10-15

But interesting that Freo are the team thats tabled the offer to baker and Eagles have not yet

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

But interesting that Freo are the team thats tabled the offer to baker and Eagles have not yet

Is there anything official on this? Makes sense and everything I've understood is that it's Freo but there's always that doubt. Formally reported Freo have given an offer and WC havent would lock him into Freo IMO