Team Mgmt. Makeup of our team II - Strengths & deficiencies, player development

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ant555 said:
Sums us up really. We will be okay "if" this bloke finds the next level or "if" that bloke does not get inured.
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For sure. And there is a fair bit of genuine potential across those four talls, it’s not just fantasy that they could turn out well.

But there’s no denying their chances of success would go from 50/50 to 70/30 if they were at Geelong instead of Essendon.

We have this chicken & egg thing where we need a generation to blossom so we can be good again but it’s hard to get them to blossom unless we’re already good.

Needs some really special leadership from young and old to change the culture. So much harder than just keeping it going.
 
fairbump_playon said:
For sure. And there is a fair bit of genuine potential across those four talls, it’s not just fantasy that they could turn out well.

But there’s no denying their chances of success would go from 50/50 to 70/30 if they were at Geelong instead of Essendon.

We have this chicken & egg thing where we need a generation to blossom so we can be good again but it’s hard to get them to blossom unless we’re already good.

Needs some really special leadership from young and old to change the culture. So much harder than just keeping it going.
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Geelong have their fair share of failures too, but unlike EFC they're already 'good' so aren't reliant upon all these guys making it to be competitive.

Since the 2007 this is their first rounders (keeping in mind most are taken > pick 10);

2007 - Harry Taylor
2008 - Mitch Brown
2009 - Daniel Menzel
2010 - Billie Smedts & Cam Guthrie
2011 - No First
2012 - Jackson Thurlow
2013 - Darcy Lang
2014 - Nakia Cockatoo
2015 - No First
2016 - No First
2017 - No First
2018 - Jordan Clark
2019 - Cooper Stephens & Sam De Koning
2020 - Max Holmes
2021 - No First
2022 - Jhye Clark
2023 - Connor O'Sullivan

There's a hell of a lot of busts there. Having a good base in-place has meant it hasn't hurt them too much, and they've usually still been able to find a decent 100+ gamer every draft or so. Having a solid team means simply finding a decent role player ever Bews, Atkins and Close is a 'win' whereas we're still needing to find actual stars as well.

2007 - Harry Taylor
2008 - Steven Motlop
2009 - Mitch Duncan
2010 - Cam Guthrie
2011 - Jed Bews & Mark Blicavs
2012 - No one
2013 - Jake Kolodjasnij
2014 - No one
2015 - Sam Menegola
2016 - Brandan Parfitt, Tom Stewart & Jack Henry
2017 - Gryan Miers
2018 - Tom Atkins
2019 - Sam De Koning (should play 100+) & Brad Close
2020 - Max Holmes*
2021 - 2023 too early to tell.
 
Development been terrible and not enough $ spent on the VFL program is our own thorn in the foot

But Dodo's success rate has been 50% at best and paying 2 x 1sts for Shiel was a huge mistake

2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011 were fails and we had no early picks in 2017-2019

2010 Heppell pick he has played over 200 games but we could have drafted Prestia or Tom Lynch or Isaac Smith

2015 we had 4 picks in the top 28 - Parish and Redders were TICKS, Franga and Morgan were not when we could have had either McKay brother, Curnow, Hopper or Josh Dunkley
 

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brutus76 said:
Development been terrible and not enough $ spent on the VFL program is our own thorn in the foot

But Dodo's success rate has been 50% at best and paying 2 x 1sts for Shiel was a huge mistake

2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011 were fails and we had no early picks in 2017-2019

2010 Heppell pick he has played over 200 games but we could have drafted Prestia or Tom Lynch or Isaac Smith

2015 we had 4 picks in the top 28 - Parish and Redders were TICKS, Franga and Morgan were not when we could have had either McKay brother, Curnow, Hopper or Josh Dunkley
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It would be much easier if we could draft with 10 years of players career data available. Agreed.
 
Probably the right time to say this but our improvement was ALWAYS going to come from our b and c grade players.

We know what we will get from Merrett, from McKay and Goldstein(even as an experienced free agent), from Parish, from Langford now, Stringer.

It is the next wave of guys who not only improve but improve there consistency. Caldwell is giving it to us each week now, Durham is showing his wares as a thriving inside mid. Jones body allowing him to play week in, week out is giving us a good look at what he can do and why we rate him.

I think the most surprising, or maybe I under appreciated what he could do, Xavier Duursma. Much better little player than I gave him credit for. Can certainly see similarities between he and those underapreciated wingers of the last decade. Kamdyn MCIntosh, Steele Sidbottom, Ed Langdon etc. Just works, and works, and works and next thing you know, he has had it 20 times and kicked a goal.

Get that bottom line to improve again (Davey, Menzie, Laverde, looking at you) to improve player or personnel wise and perhaps I was wrong and the makings of a neat little team is there.
 
In terms of team composition, reintroducing 2MP will be interesting.

My thoughts are that when he returns he should play high forward. Langford and Stringer are deadly 1:1 players, much better suited to playing the deep forward role.

Wright has a good tank and has always looked more comfortable pushing up the ground, being involved and getting his hands on the footy. He will give us a strong down the line option coming out of defence and has the running capacity to get back inside 50 on slow plays to sit under high balls. Jones has the mobility of a flanker and will now get the fourth defender - he’ll flourish.

Would only play 1 ruck, with 2MP to absorb back up duties. He’s a good second ruck. Which ruck though???? Would have said Draper a couple of weeks ago but my boy Goldy is clearly the better player right now.
 
Vander18 said:
In terms of team composition, reintroducing 2MP will be interesting.

My thoughts are that when he returns he should play high forward. Langford and Stringer are deadly 1:1 players, much better suited to playing the deep forward role.

Wright has a good tank and has always looked more comfortable pushing up the ground, being involved and getting his hands on the footy. He will give us a strong down the line option coming out of defence and has the running capacity to get back inside 50 on slow plays to sit under high balls. Jones has the mobility of a flanker and will now get the fourth defender - he’ll flourish.

Would only play 1 ruck, with 2MP to absorb back up duties. He’s a good second ruck. Which ruck though???? Would have said Draper a couple of weeks ago but my boy Goldy is clearly the better player right now.
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Agree. I think they will have to make a decision and like you I do not see 2 rucks plus 2MP and Harry working. Right now Goldy has the form. Have to say my prediction is they will go with 2 rucks and 2MP . If they do it had better bloody work.
 
Does Wright even come straight back in?

At the moment Jones is giving us more with his ability to work around the ground and provide tackling pressure.

You would think Draper should be very concerned about his spot in the 22, especially since Goldstein was the preferred ruck most of last night.
 
quotemokc said:
Does Wright even come straight back in?

At the moment Jones is giving us more with his ability to work around the ground and provide tackling pressure.

You would think Draper should be very concerned about his spot in the 22, especially since Goldstein was the preferred ruck most of last night.
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Even with Draper &/or Goldstein forward, we look more potent and competitive in the forward 50 so certainly an interesting propsoton when 2MP is fit. When is he due back ?
 
ant555 said:
Agree. I think they will have to make a decision and like you I do not see 2 rucks plus 2MP and Harry working. Right now Goldy has the form. Have to say my prediction is they will go with 2 rucks and 2MP . If they do it had better bloody work.
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I think they might as well - not sure we have the bottle to drop Draper.
 
quotemokc said:
Does Wright even come straight back in?

At the moment Jones is giving us more with his ability to work around the ground and provide tackling pressure.

You would think Draper should be very concerned about his spot in the 22, especially since Goldstein was the preferred ruck most of last night.
Click to expand...
In my universe Wright comes in for Draper.
 
i wouldn’t mind experimenting
with jones, wright, langford & stringer. ideally no team could cover all of them effectively, and as we’ve seen over the past 3 rounds harry can run up & down the ground all night, which could effectively neutralise one of the oppositions better defenders in the f50.

something that’s also been apparent this season is that we aren’t having players lead into each other like we saw last year. i think he can go missing, but gresh offers a decent level of physicality inside 50 & hopefully adj will match that with more game time
 
Have banged on about the next tier taking the step which will bounce us from wants to actual competition.

Hobbs (20 years old, 40 games)
Perkins (22, 60)
Cox (22, 39)
Durham (almost 23, 54)
Martin (23, 50)
Jones (23, 39)
Caldwell (23.5, 61 games)
Duursma (almost 24, 79)

Throw these guys onto of the next tier after that
Ridley (25, 85), McKay (26, 81), Draper (25, 62), McGrath (25, 140) Redman (26, 108)


The experience is there (Hep, Langford, Wright, Strnger)



The team is gelling better, and quicker than I was giving them credit for in the pre season. Still hope to see them play a full season but the next tier of guys is the key and they are standing up. Along with the mid tier I mentioned. Genuinely exciting to see
 

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Wreck it Ralph: 17 reasons why Essendon might be escaping mediocrity ahead of Anzac Day​

Something feels different about the Bombers’ hopes in 2024, and part of that is a brilliant move by Brad Scott and his side. JON RALPH analyses how the Bombers have changed their fortunes.


We have been here before.
When it comes to the mantle of the AFL’s greatest tease, only Carlton rivals Essendon over the past two decades.
But if Essendon has had a million false dawns, the fans at least this time might hope they are made of sterner stuff.
Last season when the going got tough… the Dons wilted.

Again.
When the injuries hit their depth was exposed, they turned up their toes and another chance to break that 6000-day finals winning drought was over.

So here are the 17 reasons why Essendon might be escaping mediocre and heading on the way to very good as it approaches Thursday’s Anzac Day contest.

Take down Collingwood in footy’s biggest day on the home-and-away calendar and the lid will officially be off.
Sam Durham celebrates a goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Sam Durham celebrates a goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

1. SAM DURHAM
It might be the best positional switch of the season so far, so cap off to Brad Scott and his midfield coach Daniel Giansiracusa.
The numbers don’t scream off the page - an average of 17 possessions, 3.8 clearances, kicking efficiency at only 63 per cent.
But this kid is just hard at it.

He took down Marcus Bontempelli in the Friday night clash at Marvel Stadium and he’s averaging 5.2 tackles per game, including nine in the victory over Adelaide.

That is the Essendon edge - beating your opponent, cracking in and minimising the gap between stinkers that cost your team and eight-out-of-ten games that contribute to a win.

He was the ninth pick in a very reasonable 2021 mid-season draft - which gives another reminder why the Roos have missed the boat.
They took the uncapped and delisted Jacob Edwards, then followed Hawks star Jai Newcombe, Collingwood’s Ash Johnson, Adelaide’s Patty Parnell, emerging Suns ruck Ned Moyle, Blues project player Alex Mirkov, Saints ruck Max Heath, GWS player James Peatling and Sam Durham, with Carlton’s Jordan Boyd at pick 20 and St Kilda’s Cooper Sharman at pick 21.

[PLAYERCARD]Ben McKay[/PLAYERCARD] has been a great recruit for the Dons. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Ben McKay has been a great recruit for the Dons. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

2. BEN MCKAY
Do your job.
As Bill Belichick would say, you don’t have to be flashy or a hero or go outside your lane.
Just do your job, and it’s what Ben McKay has served up so far.

He is not only averaging 3.5 intercept marks and 8.8 intercept possessions, he has taken on the stars and held his own.
He kept Taylor Walker to a goal against Adelaide after four the previous week, kept Aaron Naughton goalless (he kicked six the next week), kept Charlie Dixon goalless in a smacking, and kept Logan McDonald and Mitch Lewis to a goal.
They are quality forwards - and quality numbers against them.

3. DEFENCE
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Against Adelaide the Dons set the ground up beautifully with zone defence, conceding only 10 inside 50s from nearly 60 chains generated from Adelaide’s defensive 50.
It was the eighth best number under Brad Scott.
But the defensive profile is still extremely poor.

They are 16th for defending ball movement, bottom six in points conceded and the second-worst at defending turnovers.
Sydney put 131 points on them and Port Adelaide 111 in a 69-point defeat.
But in three of the last four weeks they have limited St Kilda to 67 points, the Dogs to 67 and Adelaide to 75.
And they don’t have Jordan Ridley and Zach Reid in their back six.

So there is no better test of those small pockets of improvement than defending Collingwood’s blitzkrieg ball movement on the wide open spaces of the MCG.

Essendon’s tackle pressure has been strong. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Essendon’s tackle pressure has been strong. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

4. PRESSURE
On the weekend the Dons had 80 tackles against Adelaide, their highest return from a pressure point of view and while it was a night that promoted pressure, they were also plus 17 for that stat against Adelaide.
It was their third best return for pressure under Scott.

As Steele Sidebottom said on Monday, the Pies knew they could get Port Adelaide on Saturday if they brought the heat like few sides had this year.
So Collingwood will come out hunting Essendon and their pressure numbers need to be just as good in return.

5. JYE CALDWELL
The Dons went hard for Caldwell in their trade with GWS, ultimately handing over two second-rounders and getting back the inside mid, 44 and 74 for the former No.11 draft pick.

He has played 41 games across the last two seasons - he was limited by injury to three in his debut season at the Dons.
But this has clearly been his best start to a season at Essendon even as he finished seventh in last year’s best-and-fairest.
He can take down an opponent like Tom Liberatore last week or just play inside mid, winning a season-high 26 disposals and season-high 10 tackles.

Caldwell has only been at the sixth-most centre bounces for Essendon this year (57), behind Zach Merrett (133), Archie Perkins (74), Darcy Parish (72), Will Setterfield (70), Sam Durham (69), so he’s providing bang for buck.
At just 23 he should have another 150 games ahead of him in Essendon colours.

[PLAYERCARD]Jake Stringer[/PLAYERCARD] is putting together a big season. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Jake Stringer is putting together a big season. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

6. JAKE STRINGER
Stringer has kicked 14 goals and had five direct goal assists.
But you want the stat that matters for Stringer?
Stringer is second of all key forwards for forward half pressure behind only Gold Coast’s Jed Walter.
He’s fit enough and invested enough to buy into the front-half game.

As the club played him half-fit at times last year his pressure and chasing was appalling.
Whatever the reason - fitness, happy off the field, playing for a new three-year contract - it’s definitely working.

[PLAYERCARD]Xavier Duursma[/PLAYERCARD] is getting back to his best. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Xavier Duursma is getting back to his best. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

7. XAVIER DUURSMA
In the end Essendon sweetened the deal that saw them secure Xavier Duursma for Brandon Zerk Thatcher, handing over two fourth-rounders and pick 73.
The Essendon wingman isn’t a superstar but he’s been better than his previous two years at Port Adelaide.
He has released Durham into the midfield and averaged 20 possessions in the past month with good kicking efficiency.

He is always going to win the ball on the outside but his stat line is very similar to that first breakout year at the Power - 18 possessions a game (19 in 2019), 72 per cent kick efficiency (67 per cent in 2019), 4.2 intercept possessions (3.5 in 2019), 3.3 tackles (2.0 in 2019).

8. NIC MARTIN IS RACKING IT UP BUT IS HE HURTING TEAMS?
Duursma is locked in on one wing but with Martin playing half back, the Dons have tried all of Elijah Tsatas, Jake Kelly and Nik Cox at times on the other wing.

Martin is winning 31 possessions a game but his ball use has been average - only 56 per cent efficiency against the Crows.
Is he hurting teams?
Is it worth throwing him back onto the wing at times to see if he can bring some ‘punish’ back into his game after 17 goals last year?

Alwyn Davey Jnr had a big moment in the last quarter against Adelaide. Picture: Getty Images

Alwyn Davey Jnr had a big moment in the last quarter against Adelaide. Picture: Getty Images

9. IF IT’S NOT YOUR GAME, MAKE IT YOUR MOMENT
Alwyn Davey Jr has kicked a single goal in three games and his pressure isn’t exceptional but in a four-tackle game against Adelaide a single moment stood out.
He gave Mitch Hinge 10 metres with the game in the balance - Adelaide five points down with 4.20 on the clock and surging.
And yet he still ran him down and he forced his opponent to kick the ball out of bounds.

Not sure where his career ends up as he and brother Jayden make their way at Essendon but it was a mighty good moment.

10. JADE GRESHAM
It did seem strange that Essendon handed over $700,000 a year for Gresham when they had Stringer, Archie Perkins and plenty of smalls (Jye Menzie, Matt Guelfi) to play in that role.
But credit where it is due.

Gresham hasn’t been in a single centre bounce despite being advertised as a mid-forward yet has carved out a very solid role as a high half forward.
Against Adelaide he racked up 26 touches to go with five forward-half clearances and three direct goal assists.
He has nine goals including three against the flow when the Dons were smacked around by the Power.
He still has the odd hungry moment but he’s paid his way so far.

Harrison Jones is finding his feet at AFL level. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Harrison Jones is finding his feet at AFL level. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

11. HARRISON JONES
Why didn’t a rival club ask about Harrison Jones last year when he was injured and offered only a one-year deal to stay at the Dons?
Big opportunity missed.

His last four weeks have been exceptional - nine goals, a dozen touches a game, high tackle numbers for a key forward, five forward-50 groundball gets against Adelaide.
He looks engaged and involved and perfectly poised for a big Anzac Day even as Peter Wright returns on the big stage.

Nate Caddy and Brad Scott chat. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Nate Caddy and Brad Scott chat. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

12. BRAD SCOTT HASN’T RUSHED NATE CADDY
The fans got mixed messages last year when Stringer was told to bide his time as he got fit early in the year then thrown in late in the season when clearly lame.
The Dons gave up pick 10 for Caddy - who had a heavy collision from a fall late in the pre-season, then lost a tooth in the early minutes of the round 2 VFL game against Sandringham and only played a few minutes.

He’s kicked four goals in four VFL games and had some nice moments.
But Essendon can get him in when he’s ready, not out of desperation to spruik their talent.

13. MASON REDMAN CAN GET SO MUCH BETTER
Last year Redman was in the All Australian squad and desperately unlucky not to be an All Australian.
This year his numbers are fine but his intercept game well down.

His intercept marks are down 42 per cent and intercept possessions are down by 20 per cent.
He isn’t hurting teams like last year.
The challenge is to go back to that intercept game (while Jordan Ridley is out) and base his game on hard ball as aerial coverage to help Ben McKay and Jayden Laverde.

[PLAYERCARD]Darcy Parish[/PLAYERCARD] has another level he can get to. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Darcy Parish has another level he can get to. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

14. DARCY PARISH CAN GET SO MUCH BETTER
Parish is just going after four games back from a hamstring strain.
His kicking is rated poor (39 per cent last week), his disposals and contested possessions rate average, his clearances, metres gained and scoreboard impact are below average.

He has been a non-damaging player this season.
Can the 2021 Anzac Day Medallist erupt on the MCG stage this Thursday?

Zach Merrett is leading the Bombers superbly. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Zach Merrett is leading the Bombers superbly. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

15. ZACH MERRETT HAS A CHANCE TO BE THE NEXT GREAT ESSENDON CAPTAIN SINCE JAMES HIRD
Fox Footy’s David King rates him the best captain in footy and when you look at the blend in his game you can see why.
Champion Data only has him ranked as the 24th best player in the comp this year, but he averages 30.7 disposals, 5.5 clearances and 5.2 tackles.

For a player with a weapon of a left foot they are exceptional numbers.
In the Sydney game the trio of tackles were first-class and a template for the Essendon edge.

His desperation to close down Errol Gulden from nowhere forced a turnover, he wrapped up a rampaging Chad Warner in a brilliant bear-hug and then he chased down Tom McCartin to win a close-range shot.
Brad Scott would have worn out the VHS showing his players those examples of how Essendon must play.

16. ANDY MCGRATH IS FINDING A BETTER BLEND OF ATTACK AND DEFENCE
McGrath’s offensive game is thriving - averaging 25 disposals, 494 metres gained and kicking at 73 per cent efficiency.
But early on players were kicking goals for fun on the Dons restricted free agent.

He conceded two goals to Dylan Moore, two to Tom Papley, three to Jack Higgins and two to Willie Rioli.
In the last two weeks he has held a combination of Laitham Vandermeer and Harvey Gallagher goalless then Ben Keays goalless.
If he wants the big bucks he has to take the elite small forwards and might get a very dangerous Bobby Hill or Beau McCreery type on Anzac Day.

The Dons are going well out of the centre. Picture: Michael Klein

The Dons are going well out of the centre. Picture: Michael Klein

17. CENTRE SQUARE GAME
The centre square game is excellent despite the mother of all annihilations against Port Adelaide.
The Dons haven’t had a dominant ruckman - Sam Draper and Todd Goldstein are ranked in the bottom three of the AFL’s 20 regular ruckman - but are still second for centre square clearances.

They rank sixth from scoring for stoppages.
For a team still conceding 89 points a game, conceding 58 points from turnover (ranked 17th in the AFL) and conceding scores from 48 per cent of entries (ranked 15th) they must cash in on their clearances.
The return of Zach Reid and Ridley will help that defensive profile but it is still a million miles from one that would see Essendon winning regular finals.

So the Dons have the chance to turn that 4-2 platform into something meaningful in a year where Ridley, Wright, Guelfi, Parish and Perkins have all missed plenty of football.

Last year they took a 28-point lead into three quarter time and were run down - a symbol of a season of missed opportunities.
Has Essendon matured enough to take down the premier 12 months on?
 
15. ZACH MERRETT HAS A CHANCE TO BE THE NEXT GREAT ESSENDON CAPTAIN SINCE JAMES HIRD
Fox Footy’s David King rates him the best captain in footy and when you look at the blend in his game you can see why.
Champion Data only has him ranked as the 24th best player in the comp this year, but he averages 30.7 disposals, 5.5 clearances and 5.2 tackles.

For a player with a weapon of a left foot they are exceptional numbers.
In the Sydney game the trio of tackles were first-class and a template for the Essendon edge.

His desperation to close down Errol Gulden from nowhere forced a turnover, he wrapped up a rampaging Chad Warner in a brilliant bear-hug and then he chased down Tom McCartin to win a close-range shot.
Brad Scott would have worn out the VHS showing his players those examples of how Essendon must play.
Click to expand...
i think he's already surpassed james hird, very hot take but
 
Was having a look at the Wheelo team stats which are a great resource.

We rank #1 for number of players that have kicked goals (albeit it is still early in the season).

I thought that was interesting so I looked at our player stats and all of Duursma, Merrett, Perkins, Merrett, Caldwell, Durham and Martin have kicked multiple goals to date.

Once again it’s a small sample size but a great sign that we’re getting goals from our mids as this is something we’ve struggled with for a while.
 
Wright, Goldstein, Draper?

Yesterday worked better than I had imagined. Largely thanks to a better Draper game, and good team pressure.

Feel like Wright struggled to get any separation after quarter time and our inside 50 targeting was pretty lame through the middle of the game.

Still prefer us smaller. Can see weeks where the 3 big fellas have an off game and we get punished more on rebound.
 
fairbump_playon said:
Wright, Goldstein, Draper?

Yesterday worked better than I had imagined. Largely thanks to a better Draper game, and good team pressure.

Feel like Wright struggled to get any separation after quarter time and our inside 50 targeting was pretty lame through the middle of the game.

Still prefer us smaller. Can see weeks where the 3 big fellas have an off game and we get punished more on rebound.
Click to expand...
It did but our inside 50 tackles where way down. I agree I prefer smaller. Looking long term one of Sam or Nick has to step up and take control of 80% of the ruck. Wright plays forward / 2nd ruck. Caddy and Jones mobile tall forwards. Langford and Stringer doing what they do. Need two pressure forwards to rotate with Gresham .
 
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