Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

Who wins the cup?


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FallingLiefs

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Jan 30, 2013
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I'm not out here claiming he will 100% stay the 2 miles. But there's nothing in the way he has been racing or his breeding to suggest it will be a problem
50% of his breeding is pure speed and then gone to a middle distance stallion. If that’s not a problem I give up. I am not commenting on the horse but his pedigree is so far from the prototype cup winner.
 

Jugada

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Dec 5, 2012
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50% of his breeding is pure speed and then gone to a middle distance stallion. If that’s not a problem I give up. I am not commenting on the horse but his pedigree is so far from the prototype cup winner.
So you give him none of staying the trip?
 

FallingLiefs

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So you give him none of staying the trip?
Hah not going near that one. on pure pedigree I could agree with the statement unfortunately breeding doesn’t work like that. I don’t have a problem with the statement on that basis.

I don’t really like dosage index Galileo is like a 1.1 and the mother is a 3.7 and mix that together and you get pure stayer?

Dunaden a 0.8 and 0.6 mix it together get a 3.8 but genuinely stays 2 mile.

The point was criticising him because he disagrees with your assertion of no concern of stamina with his breeding is as, or more, unfounded as his comment.
 

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Mobythepom

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Oct 23, 2012
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50% of his breeding is pure speed and then gone to a middle distance stallion. If that’s not a problem I give up. I am not commenting on the horse but his pedigree is so far from the prototype cup winner.
I think you have to assume that horses that stay 2 miles well in the UK may lack the pace for the Melbourne Cup. I don't believe horses have to be fully effective in UK 2 mile races to stay the trip in the Cup.....certainly for the majority of renewals. The O'Brien team have wised up to that in recent years. My ideal UK horse would have the pace to be near top class over 12f but also have the stamina for 1m 6f UK races.
 

Chism

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iluvparis

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Guy is full of sh*t!

Reckons Buckhurst can't run 3200m? How does he know this and it has only 10 starts ( 4 wins and 3 placings ) and never even taken on 2 miles and who knows what happens on race day and half the field have a ? on running out the trip.





Just speaking from my pocket because i have backed him in both the CC and MC! ;)
Sorry mate - you can't argue with is straight out FACTS. Just tear up that ticket now
 

Mobythepom

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Somebody brought up Master of Reality recently. I'd give this one a chance of hitting the frame again. Sure it had the run of things last year but other than last year's run in the Cup it has only once gone further than 1m 6f and that was it's best run, when only a length behind Stradivarius over 2m 4f in soft ground at Ascot. It's probably about the most stoutly bred horse in this year's field and I'm guessing last year's sit and sprint wouldn't have been ideal.

Looks to have been brought along more steadily this season with the Cup as the main target and won cosily last time. You dismiss any AOB or JOB horses at your peril these days. Early indications are that Frankel's progeny improve with age and distance.

Hard to justify it's chance on last years good run alone, but I believe it has a few other things going for it.

Scratching around trying to find some decent each way shouts further down the betting.
 

iluvparis

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Somebody brought up Master of Reality recently. I'd give this one a chance of hitting the frame again. Sure it had the run of things last year but other than last year's run in the Cup it has only once gone further than 1m 6f and that was it's best run, when only a length behind Stradivarius over 2m 4f in soft ground at Ascot. It's probably about the most stoutly bred horse in this year's field and I'm guessing last year's sit and sprint wouldn't have been ideal.

Looks to have been brought along more steadily this season with the Cup as the main target and won cosily last time. You dismiss any AOB or JOB horses at your peril these days. Early indications are that Frankel's progeny improve with age and distance.

Hard to justify it's chance on last years good run alone, but I believe it has a few other things going for it.

Scratching around trying to find some decent each way shouts further down the betting.
That Ascot Gold Cup run looks a complete and utter fluke that he has (unsurprisingly) never got near. If you don't win it the first time you generally don't win it and the gift he looked in the mouth last year and spat back out suggests he is not the right place to be looking for the winner.
 

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Shade

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Few times now in recent years O'Brien's horses have just broken down in Aus
 

king rising

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I am seriously dumbfounded by that reasoning. Travel across the world- horse doesn’t have an injury, or the flu, or a swab irregularity, oh no let’s just give him a ‘short break’ what the fu**.
 

Hamingja

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Is the Irish Derby a stallion making race? Probably going like a busted at Werribee. Either that or he has tested positive to the feed and they don't want to have to withdraw all of their runners and they have just trotted out an AFL style reason.
 

Shade

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Is the Irish Derby a stallion making race? Probably going like a busted at Werribee. Either that or he has tested positive to the feed and they don't want to have to withdraw all of their runners and they have just trotted out an AFL style reason.
Then why would AVD Race today? corruption?
 

iluvparis

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Is the Irish Derby a stallion making race? Probably going like a busted at Werribee. Either that or he has tested positive to the feed and they don't want to have to withdraw all of their runners and they have just trotted out an AFL style reason.
No. They aren’t not running to protect his stud fee
 

FallingLiefs

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I am seriously dumbfounded by that reasoning. Travel across the world- horse doesn’t have an injury, or the flu, or a swab irregularity, oh no let’s just give him a ‘short break’ what the fu**.
Would have to have not acclimatised well, they're not just bypassing the race would have to mean he's losing condition not coming on, missing work or similar. Keeping the horse intact for a full career.

Fly across the world to complete different tracks and weather at 3yo can be hard to hold them together for sure.
 
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