Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[54Dogs]

Is the Turnbull penalty free?

 

[plays tall 1]

Is the Turnbull penalty free?

The Turnbull is set weights snd penalties so I don’t think so, judging from this extract from the conditions

 

[plays tall 1]

The Turnbull is set weights snd penalties so I don’t think so, judging from this extract from the conditions

And it seems no penalty for the MC either if winning the Turnbull

 

[FallingLiefs]

If he wins the CC there is no way he isn't 56.5kg at minimum within the week after the race. If they are light on him with original weights I cannot see them missing him after a CC.

Then it's down to horses coming out, which doesn't bother me as it still has the same difference between horses they are just flat risen by x kg's but it will affect people mentally taking 57, 57.5kg or potentially even #1 cloth and 58kg in a cup.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Sonnyboyliston now winning genuine G1s out of an Ebor probably going to be up there in weights too. Hard to give him too much less than horse he just beat.

 

[iluvparis]

POWER RANKINGS - A STAR IS BORN!

1 - INCENTIVISE (Betfair $10; Last week n/r) - Showed he was up to the big boys winning the Makybe Diva first up over a completely unsuitable trip. Looks over the line at Caulfield and only risk at Flemington is the 3200 - could be a complete and utter moral if he gets it.
2 - VERRY ELLEEGANT ($30, #2) - The best staying mare Australia has seen since the Diva will go around as shot priced fave in the George Main this week.
3 - SIR DRAGONET ($36, #7) - Firing up the rankings with a bullet - this horse would be close to a moral if they actually targeted the race but connections will stupidly try and defend his Cox Plate target (with talk he also goes the Japan Cup after that - lel)
4 - SUREFIRE ($80, #3) - Takes over as the leading NH 3yo after Sir Lucan was belted in the St Leger - concerningly the Lloyd horse he beat at Royal Ascot was beaten out of sight at Leopardstown on Champions weekend.
5 - DAWN PATROL ($16.50, #4) - Former darling sliding down the rankings - needs to show something next time out and currently poison in the antepost markets.
6 - SPANISH MISSION ($13, #5) - Into quarantine - sure to be competitive but will find one or two who have a turn of foot late that is too much for him.
7 - SONNYBOYLISTON ($22, u/r) - Showed his Slowbor win was no fluke winning an extremely weak Irish St Leger last night - will get in much better at the weights against all those he faced there.
8 - TWILIGHT PAYMENT ($26, #8) - Right on track to defend his title but hard to see how he can turn things around against Sonnyboy at the weights - will also have Incentivise breathing down his neck the whole way this year.
9 - YOUNG WERTHER ($60, #10) - Sneaky nice old school Cup trial first up - think he is on the old school prep which might be good enough to compete this year.
10 - SIR LUCAN ($75, #1) - Utterly disgusting in the Leger and they rarely bounce back from such performances. Holds onto a spot in the top 10 for now purely on the 3yo NH profile.

 

[anabac]

Rumour member of RSN morning panel has a gambling problem. Bets and loses too much by half.

Surely not big shorts!

 

[Veer Right]

Slowbor form- won't be good enough

Mmk i didn't expect that response from you. Far, far apart as always

 

[Veer Right]

Sonnyboylisten, would of went the Irish form regardless of who won the lead up races.

I put a line through the EBOR form as they are generally grinders so didn't bother to even watch the race until after this mornings ISL result. He did similar coming from well off the leaders and rounding them up very quickly in a short space. Then this morning he was giving Twilight Payment four lengths on the corner and quickly made that ground up. Four year old that's just had the 14 starts coming from a strong form race in recent years. Has a lot in his favour. He reads similar to most recent MC winners, young and lightly raced. Incentivise the one to beat but if this horse comes i think he should be the fave.

Fujaira Prince won the Ebor last year, then ran an excellent second in last years Irish St Leger with the third placed TP winning the Melbourne Cup. Year before MOR nearly wins/should have won the MC after finishing fifth in the ISL.

This horse reads superior to both horses and reads better then Cross Counter as well.

 

[PieBeast]

Mmk i didn't expect that response from you. Far, far apart as always

Take this response as a positive given the glorious list of the nags he's potted of late.

 

[iluvparis]

Sonnyboylisten, would of went the Irish form regardless of who won the lead up races.

I put a line through the EBOR form as they are generally grinders so didn't bother to even watch the race until after this mornings ISL result. He did similar coming from well off the leaders and rounding them up very quickly in a short space. Then this morning he was giving Twilight Payment four lengths on the corner and quickly made that ground up. Four year old that's just had the 14 starts coming from a strong form race in recent years. Has a lot in his favour. He reads similar to most recent MC winners, young and lightly raced. Incentivise the one to beat but if this horse comes i think he should be the fave.

Fujaira Prince won the Ebor last year, then ran an excellent second in last years Irish St Leger with the third placed TP winning the Melbourne Cup. Year before MOR nearly wins/should have won the MC after finishing fifth in the ISL.

This horse reads superior to both horses and reads better then Cross Counter as well.

The Irish St Leger has been terrible for years from an MC perspective outside a couple of Llody flukes in recent years - I see no different this year - quality of a race has fallen off a clear as evidenced by the fact that Ebor horses are going over there and running well.

He is going to have about 5kgs more than Cross Counter carried too

Not sure on what earth he 'reads similar to most recent MC winners' - he actually reads very similar to MC horses that are over bet and do little.

 

[Veer Right]

The Irish St Leger has been terrible for years from an MC perspective outside a couple of Llody flukes in recent years - I see no different this year - quality of a race has fallen off a clear as evidenced by the fact that Ebor horses are going over there and running well.

He is going to have about 5kgs more than Cross Counter carried too

Not sure on what earth he 'reads similar to most recent MC winners' - he actually reads very similar to MC horses that are over bet and do little.

Irish form wins the MC over and over lately so i have to put a line thru everything you have said.

Horse that ran second to Penzance, the ebor winner (not the ebor winner, the other york staying race) should have won 2015 as well.

 

[iluvparis]

Irish form wins the MC over and over lately so i have to put a line thru everything you have said.

Horse that ran second to Penzance, the ebor winner (not the ebor winner, the other york staying race) should have won 2015 as well.

Wut? Outside Twilight Payment all the other recent winners from OS had ENGLISH 3yo form - Irish form has been trash for some time - I mean German and French form has produced winners more often ffs

There's a reason TP has jumped $41 and $26 in his two Cups off purely Irish form

 

[Veer Right]

Irish form has been trash for some time

Twilight Payment - winner IRISH Form beat Tiger Moth, IRISH form
Master of Reality - Should have won, IRISH form
Cross Counter - UK form beats Marmello French form
Rekindling - IRISH form beats Johannes Vermeer , IRISH form
Almandin - GERMAN/FRENCH form beats Heartbreak City - UK form
Max Dynamite - Should have won - UK form

Sure thing Paris, the above is all lies, damn lies!

and for the record, Sonnyboy has top form in BOTH the UK and Ireland where you say the form is crap! haha the above says otherwise.

 

[iluvparis]

Twilight Payment - winner IRISH Form beat Tiger Moth, IRISH form
Master of Reality - Should have won, IRISH form
Cross Counter - UK form beats Marmello French form
Rekindling - IRISH form beats Johannes Vermeer , IRISH form
Almandin - GERMAN/FRENCH form beats Heartbreak City - UK form
Max Dynamite - Should have won - UK form

Sure thing Paris, the above is all lies, damn lies!

and for the record, Sonnyboy has top form in BOTH the UK and Ireland where you say the form is crap! haha the above says otherwise.

Exactly as i said - most WINNERS (including Rekindling) came through top ENGLISH 3yo form - I mean if we are including certainties beat Il Paradiso also came through English 3yo form and Prince of Arran came through English Form.

Sonnboy does not come through TOP UK form - he comes through the worst cup trial around - the SLOWBOR.

TP winning last year at $26 is the only winner out of Irish form for older horses and you can tell from this two cup SPs that people dont rate the Irish form.

 

[Veer Right]

Exactly as i said - most WINNERS (including Rekindling) came through top ENGLISH 3yo form - I mean if we are including certainties beat Il Paradiso also came through English 3yo form and Prince of Arran came through English Form.

Sonnboy does not come through TOP UK form - he comes through the worst cup trial around - the SLOWBOR.

TP winning last year at $26 is the only winner out of Irish form for older forces and you can tell from this two cup SPs that people dont rate the Irish form.

TP was an EIGHT year old carrying 55kg. Had anything to do with his price? Still won because he was simply the best horse. I am choosing not to continue this Paris, i thought we could have a proper chat and not the aggro grandstanding i remember from you. Regardless of your personality your a boss on local racing!

 

[iluvparis]

TP was an EIGHT year old carrying 55kg. Had anything to do with his price? Still won because he was simply the best horse. I am choosing not to continue this Paris, i thought we could have a proper chat and not the aggro grandstanding i remember. Regardless of your personality your a boss on local racing!

The best horse on the day with the best ride. Unless you think he is a better horse than VE. News just in. He is not.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Sonnyboylisten, would of went the Irish form regardless of who won the lead up races.

I put a line through the EBOR form as they are generally grinders so didn't bother to even watch the race until after this mornings ISL result. He did similar coming from well off the leaders and rounding them up very quickly in a short space. Then this morning he was giving Twilight Payment four lengths on the corner and quickly made that ground up. Four year old that's just had the 14 starts coming from a strong form race in recent years. Has a lot in his favour. He reads similar to most recent MC winners, young and lightly raced. Incentivise the one to beat but if this horse comes i think he should be the fave.

Fujaira Prince won the Ebor last year, then ran an excellent second in last years Irish St Leger with the third placed TP winning the Melbourne Cup. Year before MOR nearly wins/should have won the MC after finishing fifth in the ISL.

This horse reads superior to both horses and reads better then Cross Counter as well.

Would think it does not take a genius to work out a horse that beat last years cup winner, has won 2 in a row, 3 of last 4 in his 4yo season will get weight relief off the aforementioned cup winner is a genuine chance of winning the MC.

The question will become does he get a winnable weight. Had he not run in the Leger the probably runs top 3 in a weak MC IMO. Now, like Incentivise you have to hold comment until we see some weights.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Twitter seems to think sonny failed vets so it may not be about weight.

 

[Jugada]

Turn of foot is not how I would describe SBL but he isn't a betting proposition for many reasons at this point. Unlikely to even come, too expensive for locals to buy now, will get too much (unwarranted imo) weight, to short in the market and if he has failed the vets like Liefs says then everything else is moot anyway

 

[Jugada]

Pre weights ratings

A - Incentivise, Spanish Mission, Dawn Patrol, Delphi

B - RoF

C - Surefire, Amade, English King, Young Werther, Duais

Incentivise clearly up to the A line after franking the Qld form. Happy to just drop Sir Lucan completely after that awful run in the St Leger and Baron Samedi is out after not accepting.

Scraping the bottom of the barrel to fill out a top 10 but the 4yos probably the only ones with any upside to bother with and YW ran nice on the weekend and Duais coming off a dominant Qld win.

 

[iluvparis]

Pre weights ratings

A - Incentivise, Spanish Mission, Dawn Patrol, Delphi

B - RoF

C - Surefire, Amade, English King, Young Werther, Duais

Incentivise clearly up to the A line after franking the Qld form. Happy to just drop Sir Lucan completely after that awful run in the St Leger and Baron Samedi is out after not accepting.

Scraping the bottom of the barrel to fill out a top 10 but the 4yos probably the only ones with any upside to bother with and YW ran nice on the weekend and Duais coming off a dominant Qld win.

This sums it up. If something else doesn’t step up soon I could see Incentivise starting shortest SP since let’s elope.

The TAB have $24 for the Cups double. I actually think that is a bet. I’d have him $3 for Caulfield which gives you implied $8 at Flem if he wins

 

[Jugada]

This sums it up. If something else doesn’t step up soon I could see Incentivise starting shortest SP since let’s elope.

The TAB have $24 for the Cups double. I actually think that is a bet. I’d have him $3 for Caulfield which gives you implied $8 at Flem if he wins

26 SB and I assume you could powerplay it up to over 30. Even if you don't like it now it's one to have in the betslip in the run during the Turnbull in case he wins by 3-4

 

[Jugada]

Where's the Cups double market on TAB?

 

[iluvparis]

Where's the Cups double market on TAB?

You have to put them in individually and then when you submit the bet it adjusts the all up price down