Pick 1 2023 Trade value - What would it take?

[Snuffaluphagus]

That’s a lot needing to go right for it to occur. Even if its a bid at pick 1 instead of 2 that “equivalent of 25” becomes equivalent of 13.

Let alone if one of Flanders or Hollands stays or gets traded for a bit less than 20.

You also don’t want to be in a position of needing a fair amount of extra points and needing to panic trade to a club that’s willing to make up those points.

My scenario is pretty basic though and has them doing nothing else, keeping a future 2nd and getting a really good future 1st. They could even work something out with North so the bid is at pick 4 instead Plenty of wriggle room there. Point is, they aren’t losing pick 4 without a future 1st somewhere

 

[Caligo]

My scenario is pretty basic though and has them doing nothing else, keeping a future 2nd and getting a really good future 1st. They could even work something out with North so the bid is at pick 4 instead Plenty of wriggle room there. Point is, they aren’t losing pick 4 without a future 1st somewhere

And it would have to be a pretty good future first you would think.

(I don't think they will do dodginess with draft tampering around Walter though. That is just asking for trouble. Reference number Tippett K)

 

[Shueygod]

My scenario is pretty basic though and has them doing nothing else, keeping a future 2nd and getting a really good future 1st. They could even work something out with North so the bid is at pick 4 instead Plenty of wriggle room there. Point is, they aren’t losing pick 4 without a future 1st somewhere

And how do they make up the points worth pick 13 if Eagles threaten to bid at 1?

What if Read/Rogers get bid on at 8 and 11 instead of 10 and 15 on top of that?

Then all of a sudden you’re looking at trading out the future 1st you got for whichever club can make up the difference.

Not saying it won’t happen but it’s dependent on a lot of factors.

 

[Caligo]

And how do they make up the points worth pick 13 if Eagles threaten to bid at 1?

What if Read/Rogers get bid on at 8 and 11 instead of 10 and 15 on top of that?

Then all of a sudden you’re looking at trading out the future 1st you got for whichever club can make up the difference.

Not saying it won’t happen but it’s dependent on a lot of factors.

I am as certain as as I can be that none of those things happen, but waiting to trade pick 4 till at least the Walter bid comes in at least mitigates some of that.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

L

And how do they make up the points worth pick 13 if Eagles threaten to bid at 1?

What if Read/Rogers get bid on at 8 and 11 instead of 10 and 15 on top of that?

Then all of a sudden you’re looking at trading out the future 1st you got for whichever club can make up the difference.

Not saying it won’t happen but it’s dependent on a lot of factors.

And if that happens they are in the same spot they were in without getting the future 1st so what does it matter? Your scenario of trading for heaps of points is the fall back position on the night, not the one they plan for

 

[danster168]

Melbourne's offer is 5, 15, 24 and their future first with some of WCE later picks this year going back the other way.

I don't see a club putting up a better offer.

you have no idea what the offer is. You're just making stuff up.

 

[danster168]

That is absolute trash. We wouldn't even land one of reid, mckercher, curtin or duursma, not to mention walter. Those other picks probably get pushed back 5 extra spots too due to academy picks. Please tell me this isn't even in the realm of possibility of being accepted?

It's also bad for Melbourne. So we give up 3 first rounders and a pick in the 20's to go up 4 spots from pick 5 to pick 1? Pass

 

[Shueygod]

And if that happens they are in the same spot they were in without getting the future 1st so what does it matter? Your scenario of trading for heaps of points is the fall back position on the night, not the one they plan for

If it happens they are then required to find a club with 1400 points they are willing to trade for a future 1st would be an interesting position to be in given it’s likely only 1-2 clubs would have the points to do so.

 

[Shueygod]

I am as certain as as I can be that none of those things happen, but waiting to trade pick 4 till at least the Walter bid comes in at least mitigates some of that.

Both are rated top 10 talents, hardly inconceivable to see them picked at 8 and 11.

 

[Farang83150]

I hope WC do offer that. I will enjoy getting pick 2 when WC get stripped of their draft picks.

Yeah because of course that'd happen

 

[Coasters7]

Im not knocking you because i know you have very good sources but melbourne are delusional. This is like last year when they were confident they would get p4 when there was zero chance essendon were going to trade it to them. They dont have the assets to get p1 so they are delusional if they think otherwise.

Your point about watson and caddy is 100 % correct though

Yeah it would be interesting to know where the confidence stems from.

Is it confidence that they’re basically the only side in the running for a trade? Despite no interest from the Eagles yet?

Or is it confidence that WC are actively looking to trade it because of their own or Reid’s intentions?

Huge difference in in wording there

 

[Caligo]

Yeah because of course that'd happen

Very low chance, but I also don't think WC risks it by draft tampering.

 

[Farang83150]

I'd be pretty annoyed if JVR was on the table. Too important for our structure to let go.

Can't see the Ds parting with him, would be crazy

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

If it happens they are then required to find a club with 1400 points they are willing to trade for a future 1st would be an interesting position to be in given it’s likely only 1-2 clubs would have the points to do so.

1400 points? The difference between 1 and 2 with the discount is like 400 points. What are you talking about? There’s no way the points situation gets 1400 points worse than what I suggested. The WC post suggestions that have GC breaking up 4 points are just bias in seeing what benefits you.

If they trade pick 4 without moving up, they are going to come out of trade period with an extra future 1st, I’ll gift you a month without bigfooty ads if they don’t

 

[Farang83150]

Why are you so sure Reid will request a trade home if he lands at WCE?

Because a random nth supporter said so!
Same nth supporter that knows exactly what Reids future intentions are!

 

[Shueygod]

1400 points? The difference between 1 and 2 with the discount is like 400 points. What are you talking about? There’s no way the points situation gets 1400 points worse than what I suggested. The WC post suggestions that have GC breaking up 4 points are just bias in seeing what benefits you.

If they trade pick 4 without moving up, they are going to come out of trade period with an extra future 1st, I’ll gift you a month without bigfooty ads if they don’t

Difference between 1, 8 and 11 + 25 to 2, 11 and 15 is about 1400 no?

 

[eaglespremiers]

Plus Bendigo is a s**t hole.

Having relocated from Melbourne to Bendigo I can assure you the city I live in now is far better than the capital of Victoria, for a myriad of reasons.
As previously stated Reid does not live here anyway but I think your comment is grossly unfair.

 

[Turbocat]

I agree with that but my point is they will get paid more in 2 years (you will see when harley dominates next year) than they are being offered now and they will have 2 years of harley before he goes, so why would they sell him for 50c on the dollar now (dont tell me melbs offer with no top 5 picks is enough). That would be a dumb business deal.

The value of what tehy get now will be assessed when they use the picks and who they get. Getting more in 2 years time is your judgement..id say it would be similar in pick value but who will be available to pick in 2 years time. If WC do the deal now they ensure they have Curtin and 1 or 2 others.

 

[beagles]

Best trade for all parties is:
GC lose pick 5 - Gain 19 & 38 or F2nd and a guarantee that Walter won’t be bid on the 1st 3 picks
North lose 2, 3 and 16 - Gain 1 and 5
WC lose 1, 19 & 38 or F2nd - Gain 2 and 3 and 16

Add's Edwards into the picture

I do prefer to keep pick1 (Reid) and trade for pick 4. WC have the draft asset's and can influence GC's selection.

And may still get Curtin

 

[Free Agent]

Having relocated from Melbourne to Bendigo I can assure you the city I live in now is far better than the capital of Victoria, for a myriad of reasons.
As previously stated Reid does not live here anyway but I think your comment is grossly unfair.

Ok might of been a bit harsh. There are some nice areas in Bendigo like Maiden Gully and around the Gardens. More outside suburban you go the better it is.

I was more referring to the actual main street of Bendigo. Mitchell St and inner Bendigo, the main streets in town. When I used to live there walking down those streets on occasion was kind of like walking through the Getto. Very scary area.

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

I do prefer to keep pick1 (Reid) and trade for pick 4. WC have the draft asset's and can influence GC's selection.

And may still get Curtin

Exactly, no clue why we're even entertaining doing any other club a favour and gift wrapping reid for them. We can likely get the gold coast pick without having to give up access to reid, so why would we?

 

[eaglespremiers]

The value of what tehy get now will be assessed when they use the picks and who they get. Getting more in 2 years time is your judgement..id say it would be similar in pick value but who will be available to pick in 2 years time. If WC do the deal now they ensure they have Curtin and 1 or 2 others.

Reid should be worth far more to us than Curtin.
Just because he's "home-grown talent" doesn't means he's the better player (he's not) or the better fit (he's definitely not).
Receiving say pick 15 to move from pick 1 to pick 2 is historically more likely than not to be a worse outcome for West Coast in the long run, and this draft particularly has an anticipated degradation at about the Sanders pick (pick 7-8).
It also doesn't make sense from a North perspective, which has been acknowledged by many North supporters already.
They don't need Reid (although he would be fantastic to have). If McKay leaves they do absolutely need a player like Curtin though.
For both West Coast and North the current likely selections makes a lot more sense than inverting them for less needed players.

As an aside I have moderate connection to the Pioneers (this can be corroborated as I do photography for them, mostly for home games, which you can find on their social media page). There is no suggestion by anyone in the club internally that Reid might be reluctant to relocate to another part of the country. With that in mind I do not believe any credence should be given to these rumours and I strongly doubt that West Coast would feel even the remotest pressure to move pick 1 on due to these rumours. If posters are going to insist there is value to these rumours, that's their prerogative, but I think that they can be comfortably ignored when considering what West Coast should accept in a trade for pick 1.

My strong preference is to keep the pick and take Reid. Picks 4 + 5 might be enough to persuade me otherwise (acknowledging that this is definitely overs), but I doubt anything close to this will be offered in reality.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Ok might of been a bit harsh. There are some nice areas in Bendigo like Maiden Gully and around the Gardens. More outside suburban you go the better it is.

I was more referring to the actual main street of Bendigo. Mitchell St and inner Bendigo, the main streets in town. When I used to live there walking down those streets on occasion was kind of like walking through the Getto. Very scary area.

Gotta stay away from the Mall.
Tangentially it is still better than most of Shepparton.

 

[Turbocat]

Reid should be worth far more to us than Curtin.
Just because he's "home-grown talent" doesn't means he's the better player (he's not) or the better fit (he's definitely not).
Receiving say pick 15 to move from pick 1 to pick 2 is historically more likely than not to be a worse outcome for West Coast in the long run, and this draft particularly has an anticipated degradation at about the Sanders pick (pick 7-8).
It also doesn't make sense from a North perspective, which has been acknowledged by many North supporters already.
They don't need Reid (although he would be fantastic to have). If McKay leaves they do absolutely need a player like Curtin though.
For both West Coast and North the current likely selections makes a lot more sense than inverting them for less needed players.

As an aside I have moderate connection to the Pioneers (this can be corroborated as I do photography for them, mostly for home games, which you can find on their social media page). There is no suggestion for anyone in the club internally that Reid might be reluctant to relocate to another part of the country. With that in mind I do not believe any credence should be given to these rumours and I strongly doubt that West Coast would feel even the remotest pressure to move pick 1 on due to these rumours. If posters are going to insist there is value to these rumours, that's their prerogative, but I think that they can be comfortably ignored when considering what West Coast should accept in a trade for pick 1.

My strong preference is to keep the pick and trade Reid. Picks 4 + 5 might be enough to persuade me otherwise (acknowledging that this is definitely overs), but I doubt anything close to this will be offered in reality.

Trade Reid?

Im not really talking about if he stays or leaves. In the end ..it will be a choice for WC on what they can get with what is offered.

 

[Jupes]

Yeah it would be interesting to know where the confidence stems from.

Is it confidence that they’re basically the only side in the running for a trade? Despite no interest from the Eagles yet?

Or is it confidence that WC are actively looking to trade it because of their own or Reid’s intentions?

Huge difference in in wording there

knowing gaz it's probably from ample nosebeers