I don't think we will beat the tigers today to be honest.
Hope I'm wrong but I just think it's too much for the young kids to maintain that high pressure footy for the remaining 4 games
Prediction The run home - how many do we win?
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I don't think we will beat the tigers today to be honest.
Hope I'm wrong but I just think it's too much for the young kids to maintain that high pressure footy for the remaining 4 games
Despite what the commentators may be saying, this loss isn't the end of our finals hopes, it just means we now rely on upsets, whereas previously, winning all our games and having favourites win would likely have got us in. 46 could be enough for us to make the 8, but requires a lot of losses of that group in front of us (so super unlikely, but stranger things have happened).
If we win the next 3 games, I reiterate, this is how we can still make the 8. Not totally ridiculous...
-Giants beat Melbourne - ✓
-St Kilda beat West Coast -✓
-Giants beat Bulldogs
-St Kilda beat Melbourne
-Port beat Bulldogs at Ethiad
-Giants beat West Coast
-North beat St Kilda
-Adelaide beat West Coast at Perth
-Collingwood beat Melbourne
-Richmond beat St Kilda
-Giants beat Melbourne - ✓
-St Kilda beat West Coast -✓
-Giants beat Bulldogs
-St Kilda beat Melbourne
-Port beat Bulldogs at Ethiad
-Giants beat West Coast
-North beat St Kilda
-Adelaide beat West Coast at Perth
-Collingwood beat Melbourne
-Richmond beat St Kilda
So about 3% chance.
At least we can finsish the season with a win or two
At least we can finsish the season with a win or two
Sure it's unlikely, but if you were a betting man, those results are about right I would've thought.
cryptor
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Mathematically possible but very, very unlikely to happen now.
I'd be happy for Clarko to take the rest of the season on as if we're out. Experiment a lot more and play a few outsiders to see if they're worth keeping on the list.
I'd be happy for Clarko to take the rest of the season on as if we're out. Experiment a lot more and play a few outsiders to see if they're worth keeping on the list.
I had a look at the games we'd need to go our way, and I'm a little more optimistic than I thought I'd be. Due to Melbourne and WC both losing, the situation isn't as bad as it could have been. Does anyone have a place that can give an estimate based on the assumption we win the rest of our games? There are a few scenarios that could have us making it. If everyone on 40 right now only wins one more game, we'll make it if we win our 3. So:
if all of these happen we make it:
Essendon: Lose to two of Adelaide/Freo/GC.
WC: Lose to two of Adelaide/GWS/Carlton
Melbourne: Lose to two of Saints/Lions/Pies
Saints: Lose to two of Melbourne/North/Richmond
Essendon seems the least likely to lose 2 of those, WC the most likely. For every one of the above four that manages to win at least 2 out of 3, we need one of the following to lose all their games:
Doggies: Lose to Giants, Power, and Hawks.
Sydney: Lose to Freo, Adelaide, Carlton
Port: Lose to Pies, Dogs, Suns
As I can't see Bombers dropping both Freo/GC, or Syney losing to both Freo and Carlton, I think our most likely path would be:
Essendon finish above us, by beating Freo and GC.
Port finish above us by winning against at least Suns
Sydney finish above us by beating one of Freo or Carlton.
We jump ahead of WC, Melbourne, Saints, Doggies, making the crucial games:
WC losing to GWS and Adelaide
Melbourne losing to Saints and Pies
Saints losing to North and Richmond.
Doggies losing to GWS,Port and Hawks.
Most of those games are very believable wins in the direction that suits us. The ones that are hard to see happening are Saints losing to North, and Melbourne losing to Pies. With Melbourne/Saints down as a 50/50 right now. The Doggies's games are all home games, so probably those are a bit of a stretch too (although Port is being played in Ballarat). We can still make it if those games don't go our way, but it requires bigger upsets such as Sydney losing to both Freo and Carlton, Port losing to both Suns and Pies, or Bombers losing to one of Freo/GC.
if all of these happen we make it:
Essendon: Lose to two of Adelaide/Freo/GC.
WC: Lose to two of Adelaide/GWS/Carlton
Melbourne: Lose to two of Saints/Lions/Pies
Saints: Lose to two of Melbourne/North/Richmond
Essendon seems the least likely to lose 2 of those, WC the most likely. For every one of the above four that manages to win at least 2 out of 3, we need one of the following to lose all their games:
Doggies: Lose to Giants, Power, and Hawks.
Sydney: Lose to Freo, Adelaide, Carlton
Port: Lose to Pies, Dogs, Suns
As I can't see Bombers dropping both Freo/GC, or Syney losing to both Freo and Carlton, I think our most likely path would be:
Essendon finish above us, by beating Freo and GC.
Port finish above us by winning against at least Suns
Sydney finish above us by beating one of Freo or Carlton.
We jump ahead of WC, Melbourne, Saints, Doggies, making the crucial games:
WC losing to GWS and Adelaide
Melbourne losing to Saints and Pies
Saints losing to North and Richmond.
Doggies losing to GWS,Port and Hawks.
Most of those games are very believable wins in the direction that suits us. The ones that are hard to see happening are Saints losing to North, and Melbourne losing to Pies. With Melbourne/Saints down as a 50/50 right now. The Doggies's games are all home games, so probably those are a bit of a stretch too (although Port is being played in Ballarat). We can still make it if those games don't go our way, but it requires bigger upsets such as Sydney losing to both Freo and Carlton, Port losing to both Suns and Pies, or Bombers losing to one of Freo/GC.
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RIP this thread, I've enjoyed it. 2018 here we come.
Good to see you onboard, hk89! Think we're the last two who dare to believe. Anything is possible this season.
Aramis
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Thats a hell of a lot that needs to go our way. Especially North beating the Saints.
Ned Ryerson
Future Captain
That last result is not remotely a dream of mine.
Assuming we win the remaining 3 games, we have a 3% chance of making finals (based on 50,000 trials and using reasonable probability assumptions on the remaining games).
Unfortunately there are just so many more permutations where we miss vs where we make it.
If you still want to keep the faith, Adelaide beating Essendon next week and GWS beating Bulldogs gets us up to 7%.
Unfortunately there are just so many more permutations where we miss vs where we make it.
If you still want to keep the faith, Adelaide beating Essendon next week and GWS beating Bulldogs gets us up to 7%.
What if we get the dream result of
Adelaide beat Essendon
GWS beat Doggies
Pies beat Port
Freo beats Sydney
Carlton beat WC
Saints beat Melb (Not sure who is better to win for us in this one, will depend on which one has the tougher run I suppose).
?
If all that happened + Melbourne beat STK (better for us), our chances go up to 19%.
A more realistic scenario would be the following:
R 21:
Mel def STK
Ade def Ess
GWS def WBD
R 22:
GWS def WCE
Port def WBD
R23:
Haw def WBD
Ade def WCE
Ric def STK
If all these results fell our way, we'd still need ESS to drop one of their last two games - either vs GCS (away) or vs Fre (home).
Then we could sneak into 8th below Port, Sydney, Melbourne.
Even then, we'd still have a first final vs Port away.. could be ugly
Yes, it seems the longest bow we'd need to draw is Essendon dropping one of those two. We'd need one of the next rung up to drop all their games if that happens, which I guess is even less likely than Bombers dropping one of those two. Seems most of the results needed are not massive upsets, but just the cumulative probability of them all happening the right way makes the thing very unlikely.
Even then, we'd still have a first final vs Port away.. could be ugly
Yes, although I'd like to think the group is resilient enough to handle one finals smashing - one that might end up putting some fire in their bellies for the pre-season.
Ranj Sri Lanka
Cancelled
That's only 7 more wins for the cup mate. I am a dreamer...
- Thread starter
- #246
Great to see the optimism! Matter of Stats has us 1% chance of finishing 8th and 0.1% chance of finishing 7th. We've definitely made it tough for ourselves. If we don't make it we get a rest for the first time in 8 years (19 finals since 2010 makes for almost a whole extra season - maybe why we looked so lethargic early on) and a chance to reset. But I'd still love to make it!
If we win the next 3 games, I reiterate, this is how we can still make the 8. Not totally ridiculous...
-Giants beat Melbourne -
-St Kilda beat West Coast -
-Giants beat Bulldogs -
-St Kilda beat Melbourne
-Port beat Bulldogs at Ethiad
-Giants beat West Coast
-North beat St Kilda
-Adelaide beat West Coast at Perth
-Collingwood beat Melbourne
-Richmond beat St Kilda
the football gods will have to do a lot of things for us to squeeze into the 8, so im going on the assumption we wont make it with 11 1/2 wins, also the 6 wins was optimistic of me.
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