Prediction The run home - how many do we win?

[OzJohnnie]

Ablett isn't going to play against Essendon. I can feel the floor bounce as the fat lady does a little jig.

 

[hk89]

Ablett isn't going to play against Essendon. I can feel the floor bounce as the fat lady does a little jig.

Yup, that is very bad news for us. Means we need Bombers to lose to Freo, or have the unlikely result of all of the teams 2 games ahead of us lose the rest of their games (Doggies, Melbourne , WC). Also not good news that De Goey is now out for the season, given we really wanted Pies to get up against Melbourne in the last round.

 

[Bedi]

It's a sick joke that neither Ablett and Lynch are playing. On paper their lineup looks awful, so it will have to be the biggest boil over of the year. Reckon Brisbane have more chance of beating Melbourne. At least Port are playing Bulldogs in Ballarat as opposed to Ethiad.

 

[Bedi]

Would be freakin hilarious if we made the finals. I wanna see it purely to spite Mick Molloy

 

[DrEvil_]

Long odds to make it and 7% chance seems about right. To simplify it.

We need to win both our last games.
Essendon and St Kilda lose at least one each.
West Coast and Bulldogs must lose both of their last games.

Geez if only we had another one second in that GWS game with Burton's punch over for the behind.

Would not make any difference with our percentage.

 

[seysearles]

Hawthorn: Beats Carlton (Away) and Bulldogs (Home) - Very doable.
West Coast: Lose to GWS (Away) or Adelaide (Home) - Possible.
Bulldogs: Lose to Port Adelaide (Home) & Hawthorn (Away) - Possible.
Essendon: Lose to either Gold Coast (Away) or Fremantle (Home) - Tough.
St Kilda: Lose to either North (Home) or Richmond (Away) - Possible.

 

[tommyk72]

View attachment 404946

Hawthorn: Beats Carlton (Away) and Bulldogs (Home) - Very doable.
West Coast: Lose to GWS (Away) or Adelaide (Home) - Possible.
Bulldogs: Lose to Port Adelaide (Home) & Hawthorn (Away) - Possible.
Essendon: Lose to either Gold Coast (Away) or Fremantle (Home) - Tough.
St Kilda: Lose to either North (Home) or Richmond (Away) - Possible.

Do all of lines 1-4 have to happen? E.g. If lines 2, 3 and 4 happen, does 5 still have to?

 

[Smooth Banana]

View attachment 404946

Hawthorn: Beats Carlton (Away) and Bulldogs (Home) - Very doable.
West Coast: Lose to GWS (Away) or Adelaide (Home) - Possible.
Bulldogs: Lose to Port Adelaide (Home) & Hawthorn (Away) - Possible.
Essendon: Lose to either Gold Coast (Away) or Fremantle (Home) - Tough.
St Kilda: Lose to either North (Home) or Richmond (Away) - Possible.

You know what's filthy, if we beat the Tigers we would have been ahead of both the Saints and Bombers and would have had a shot at Doggies last round to go ahead of them. We only would have needed Eagles to drop only one game which is a definite. Farrkkkk.

Of all those the Essendon one is a long shot. If only Suns can somehow get their s**t together. It's a sad day when your relying on the Suns and Dockers.

 

[Wandering Hawk]

Do all of lines 1-4 have to happen? E.g. If lines 2, 3 and 4 happen, does 5 still have to?

Yeah we need all of those, or need Dees to drop both instead of one of those lines, and must win both of ours.

Bit stuffed when it comes to needing an Essendon loss to rabble. Sadly peptide rabble tends to beat honest rabble.

 

[Kanga Commando]

You know what's filthy, if we beat the Tigers we would have been ahead of both the Saints and Bombers and would have had a shot at Doggies last round to go ahead of them. We only would have needed Eagles to drop only one game which is a definite. Farrkkkk.

Of all those the Essendon one is a long shot. If only Suns can somehow get their s**t together. It's a sad day when your relying on the Suns and Dockers.

yesterday I thought it was a long shot until I saw the outs for Essendon. GC with a fair chance now imho

 

[DrEvil_]

yesterday I thought it was a long shot until I saw the outs for Essendon. GC with a fair chance now imho

Jobe out is a plus to Essendon

 

[Smooth Banana]

yesterday I thought it was a long shot until I saw the outs for Essendon. GC with a fair chance now imho

No Lynch or Ablett is a worry. The Suns have the talent but can they click? I'm worried the Bombers kick a few and the Suns crumble. To think they beat us twice, oh the shame. Need Port to beat the Dogs also

:/

 

[Gralin]

we could be eliminated before we even play tomorrow night with both Doggies and WC playing earlier games, if they both win doesn't matter what else happens.

If one of them wins and Hawks do we have to wait until Sunday and Melbourne's game to see if we are still alive

If one of the Doggies or WC wins on Saturday we are most likely done for the year as Melbourne host Brisbane

 

[tommyk72]

we could be eliminated before we even play tomorrow night with both Doggies and WC playing earlier games, if they both win doesn't matter what else happens.

If one of them wins and Hawks do we have to wait until Sunday and Melbourne's game to see if we are still alive

If one of the Doggies or WC wins on Saturday we are most likely done for the year as Melbourne host Brisbane

Thanks, Mr positive. Way to kill a thread.


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[Gralin]

Thanks, Mr positive. Way to kill a thread.


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You'd know if I killed it

But you wouldn't be able to post in it to complain

 

[tommyk72]

You'd know if I killed it

But you wouldn't be able to post in it to complain

Touché. Well played sir. I'll be in my box should anyone need me.


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[OzJohnnie]

You'd know if I killed it

But you wouldn't be able to post in it to complain

 

[Nugett]

You know what's filthy, if we beat the Tigers we would have been ahead of both the Saints and Bombers and would have had a shot at Doggies last round to go ahead of them. We only would have needed Eagles to drop only one game which is a definite. Farrkkkk.

Of all those the Essendon one is a long shot. If only Suns can somehow get their s**t together. It's a sad day when your relying on the Suns and Dockers.

Usually when a team loses its coach in the 2 weeks after they produce upset. Fingers crossed that this precedent remains...

 

[philohk]

For the other stats nerds: http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-s...final-ladder-and-finals-series-after-round-21

Chances of 8th: 2.8%
Chances of 7th: 0.3%
Chances of finals if we win both games: about 12%

soyouresayingtheresachance.jpg

 

[threesixpio]

View attachment 404946

Hawthorn: Beats Carlton (Away) and Bulldogs (Home) - Very doable.
West Coast: Lose to GWS (Away) or Adelaide (Home) - Possible.
Bulldogs: Lose to Port Adelaide (Home) & Hawthorn (Away) - Possible.
Essendon: Lose to either Gold Coast (Away) or Fremantle (Home) - Tough.
St Kilda: Lose to either North (Home) or Richmond (Away) - Possible.

Yep - Essendon are the key to us making it.

But I find it REALLY REALLY hard hoping for the Bombers to lose a game.

#nosarcasmemojiyet

 

[threesixpio]

Ken Port are already behind. C'mon Port FFs

 

[Billyc]

Ken Port are already behind. C'mon Port FFs

Kicking into a big wind and look good I reckon. Conditions will suit them more than the indoor bulldogs.

GC / Essendon is the reason we are next to no chance of making it unfortunately. GC are awful and our failure to beat them on two occasions means we don't deserve to play finals this year.

 

[Nugett]

Yep - Essendon are the key to us making it.

But I find it REALLY REALLY hard hoping for the Bombers to lose a game.

#nosarcasmemojiyet

I got a good feeling that the Suns will surprise tonight. Think they are a better side without Gablett hogging the ball.

 

[Billyc]

I got a good feeling that the Suns will surprise tonight. Think they are a better side without Gablett hogging the ball.

Their win-loss strongly suggests otherwise

 

[Nugett]

Their win-loss strongly suggests otherwise

I just want to remain optimistic! So at the moment ignorance is bliss by ignoring the stats!