Analysis The run home...

[beetz]

From heraldsun

1. FREMANTLE

Round 16 - Carlton (S)

Round 17 - Richmond (MCG)

Round 18 - GWS Giants (S)

Round 19 - St Kilda (ES)

Round 20 - West Coast (S)

Round 21 - North Melbourne (ES)

Round 22 - Melbourne (S)

Round 23 - Port Adelaide (AO)

WE SAY: Should win five of their last six with danger games against Richmond (MCG), West Coast (S) and North Melbourne (ES). Shades of Sydney-Richmond last year in Fremantle’s Round 23 match against Port Adelaide - the Power might need the win to sneak into the eight. Will Ross Lyon rest any players down the stretch? You bet.

CHAMPION DATA SAYS: The Dockers attack has dried up but it’s the inability to defend when the opposition goes inside 50 that has cost them too. They have conceded the fewest inside 50s but are the easiest side to goal against once inside 50, conceding a major 30.3 per cent of the time.



Fairly decent run home and should win a lot more than lose.

The interesting and most worrying stat is the underlined, which suggests we desperately need Johnson and Dawson back - which is happening a lot sooner than later. It also says the midfield are actually doing a sound job defensively and limiting the opposition inside 50s. I would say that Freo are trying to pick up the slack defensively at the expense of their offence.

 

[Taylor]

The interesting and most worrying stat is the underlined, which suggests we desperately need Johnson and Dawson back - which is happening a lot sooner than later. It also says the midfield are actually doing a sound job defensively and limiting the opposition inside 50s. I would say that Freo are trying to pick up the slack defensively at the expense of their offence.

That stat says to me that our midfield is working harder backwards to cover the defense, making it slower and congested in there. They know long bombs into fifty result in Freo marks and rebounds.

 

[beetz]

That stat says to me that our midfield is working harder backwards to cover the defense, making it slower and congested in there. They know long bombs into fifty result in Freo marks and rebounds.

Exactly. Whilst we are expecting more goals, mainly from our midfielders, we are forgetting that they are busy trying to stop them the other way and also rebound the footy out such as Hill who has played a fair bit down back of late. No doubt they're trying to work on a balance but it makes me want Dawson back to relieve McPharlin et al to provide a bit more rebound. Of course Johnno is the obvious big loss but he is a month away.

 

[Taylor]

Is it possible that Pearce is playing a strictly man on man role and not peeling off to space much, meaning we need to play an extra back during transition play, leading to our side pressing a bit deep into defense?

 

[beetz]

Is it possible that Pearce is playing a strictly man on man role and not peeling off to space much, meaning we need to play an extra back during transition play, leading to our side pressing a bit deep into defense?

Yeah no doubt. Ross is keeping McPharlin back and covering/helping Pearce so it leaves us a bit short elsewhere. Need Dawson as that experienced last line of defense anchor with the others spreading and receiving for the next kick/handball.

 

[Square Peg]

That stat says to me that our midfield is working harder backwards to cover the defense.

And it isn't pretty, or successful against any half decent team

 

[Borderline]

Honestly we should finish first, but if we have to play Hawthorn in Melbourne you can stick a fork in us. Not good enough unless we radically change the game plan.

 

[Frigate]

Good post. All of the games are winnable. The difficulty is analyzing the possibility of how we are traveling. Some points to note :
1. Round 8 was against the top 4 likely team (North) and we had 1 of our 5 win games scoring more than 100 points, and our biggest winning margin of 73 points.
2. Round 9 a grinding win in a low scoring game, coinciding with a number of rain affected games. A good away win against a team performing well.
3. Rain levels the playing field. We have grinded out wins in ugly footy and frankly we are lucky to have locked in all the wins without dropping one - generally a sign of a good team.
4. Round 13 - Pies, a good win indicating we are traveling ok
5. 2 losses in 15 rounds is awesome. At the start of the season anyone would be amazed at this.
6. After a big defeat, we come up against a team which ended our winning streak at home.

So going forward, Richmond are shaky as are we. This game will define both clubs... to an extent. Now the Tigers loss was perhaps the moment we "lost form", and there is no doubt in my mind that we lost one of our most valuable players in MJ. The number of backs out for us in Dawson and Silvagni left us short and inexperienced, and changes required. Lucky for Alex Pearce!

We get Dawson back next week, and MJ will be back in August. I rate MJ as a top 3 player for us, and I rate Dawson as an awesome lock defender to counter the main goal kicking forward - not flashy and not pretty but effective.

 

[siteuser]

Did anyone watch the panel of Footy Classified discuss Fremantle on Monday? (At the beginning of Episode 16)
http://www.9jumpin.com.au/show/footyclassified/episodes/

 

[Purple Jesus]

Exactly. Whilst we are expecting more goals, mainly from our midfielders, we are forgetting that they are busy trying to stop them the other way and also rebound the footy out such as Hill who has played a fair bit down back of late. No doubt they're trying to work on a balance but it makes me want Dawson back to relieve McPharlin et al to provide a bit more rebound. Of course Johnno is the obvious big loss but he is a month away.

THIS^^

 

[Purple Jesus]

Honestly we should finish first, but if we have to play Hawthorn in Melbourne you can stick a fork in us. Not good enough unless we radically change the game plan.

Nope, when we have our prime defenders back, the mids can be more attacking. Game plan is fine, just lacking personnel.

 

[freoextra]

Nope, when we have our prime defenders back, the mids can be more attacking. Game plan is fine, just lacking personnel.

You may be right but we have had an ok run with injuries this year so it really didn't take too many absent players to cause a significant issue!!!

We have to be more versatile than this which is something that Ross was working on. I really think that we are just genuinely out of form at the moment and that's what the coaches get payed the big bucks to fix.

 

[Purple Jesus]

You may be right but we have had an ok run with injuries this year so it really didn't take too many absent players to cause a significant issue!!!

We have to be more versatile than this which is something that Ross was working on. I really think that we are just genuinely out of form at the moment and that's what the coaches get payed the big bucks to fix.

Yeah, only a few injuries but pretty key ones! We have an aging KPD available, had to blood a newbie and ... playing Ibbo as a 3rd tall? Losing Dawson, Silvagni and MJ has killed us in a pretty significant area, fix that bit and the rest all comes back together.

 

[Mr Peabody]

Did anyone watch the panel of Footy Classified discuss Fremantle on Monday? (At the beginning of Episode 16)
http://www.9jumpin.com.au/show/footyclassified/episodes/

Not too painful a wait to watch once you get past the obligatory deodorant advert (rather apt for this normally smelly show).

They cover us from 0:58 to 7:10. They suggest it's time for Ross to get brave with Mat Lloyd championing either changes to structure and/or changes in personnel (i.e why not Crozier and why not give the draftees like Weller a run as the Pies and Eagles are doing with Degoey and Duggan).

And how's the stats with or without Johnson:-



RTB alluded (in the early days of the now acknowledged rut) to how the run out of D50 had been negatively impacted after Johnno's injury. A.Pearce has done really well but does that also highlight RTB's philiposophies and instincts being the limitations of a youngster stepping in - there's only so much a kid playing a handful of games can do and in this case, it has not stopped the rot down back.

It's a bit if a quandary. We're at 12-2 and gunning for Top 2. RTB signalled at the start of the season that if we were 2-10 after the bye, we'd be playing the kids by now so he's standing by his word one could argue in not playing them. But now, even he has publicly acknowledged we're out of form so what's the answer.

How do you continue to drive for Top 2 and position a team that is ready to fly at the business end when you're sitting at 12-2 with a load of players out of form?

I'm going to ponder over that and let my work productivity suffer today while I search for answers.

 

[Jetau]

Games against Carlton, GWS and Melbourne should definitely be wins, even in the current form.

Richmond, St Kilda, North and the derby are all 50-50. Call it two wins there.

And Port away would be tough normally, but they may be out of the finals race. On the other hand, if we've locked away top two then I think it'd be well worth resting about 10 players.

Ideal scenario - Freo and Hawthorn finish 1 and 2, Freo play Sydney in Perth in QF, win, derby in PF, win, Hawthorn in GF, pray!

 

[Alfonz]

Ideal scenario - Freo and Hawthorn finish 1 and 2, Freo play Sydney in Perth in QF, win, derby in PF, win, Hawthorn in GF, pray!

That's not ideal at all. It is a horror. If Hawthorn finish top 2, then we have zero chance. We will not beat them at the MCG.

The primary way we win the flag is if Freo and WC finish top 2, and both take care of business at Subiaco and set up a derby grand final.

 

[beetz]

That's not ideal at all. It is a horror. If Hawthorn finish top 2, then we have zero chance. We will not beat them at the MCG.

The primary way we win the flag is if Freo and WC finish top 2, and both take care of business at Subiaco and set up a derby grand final.

I don't like the idea of a derby Grand Final at all! The repercussions of potentially losing to WC in a GF would be astronomical.

 

[Quokka]

Yep I'm all for a Derby prelim and a Hawks rematch, if you're going to win it you might as well leave no question you were the best.

 

[Mogumber]

Hawks weren't the best when they beat Geelong years ago. We can still win it even if we aren't the best.

 

[PintofPale]

Not too painful a wait to watch once you get past the obligatory deodorant advert (rather apt for this normally smelly show).

They cover us from 0:58 to 7:10. They suggest it's time for Ross to get brave with Mat Lloyd championing either changes to structure and/or changes in personnel (i.e why not Crozier and why not give the draftees like Weller a run as the Pies and Eagles are doing with Degoey and Duggan).

Why not play Crozier? Because when he's played he's averaged 7 touches and less than a goal.

 

[simpsonwillo]

I don't like the idea of a derby Grand Final at all! The repercussions of potentially losing to WC in a GF would be astronomical.

But winning would shut the West Coast supporters up for the rest of our lives,because you can't argue with that.

 

[calaisking]

I don't like the idea of a derby Grand Final at all! The repercussions of potentially losing to WC in a GF would be astronomical.

If it was to happen, all of the WC players will be playing their first GF. They will crumble under pressure like we did two years ago.

I'd take WC over Hawks any day of the week.

 

[calaisking]

Looking at the ladder predictor, if we drop two of our last eight, we will end up second or third.

That will leave us versing either Hawks or WC first round of the finals

 

[Taylor]

If it was to happen, all of the WC players will be playing their first GF. They will crumble under pressure like we did two years ago.

I'd take WC over Hawks any day of the week.

West Coast have played two finals in recent history. One was a near 100 point belting of their opponent.

So West Coast have played one finals intensity game in recent history.
We would get a quarter at them before they settle.

 

[wafti123]

I would definitely agree to the derby grand final if it were on offer. Eliminates the home advantage. If west coast win, take a holiday somewhere or have a self imposed media blackout for a month or so.