Scandal Victorian AFL dominance leads to investigation?

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OnlyPowerForever

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Mar 22, 2021
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The AFL has launched an investigation into the recent failure of non-Victorian clubs to win a grand final.

It has been fourteen years since an AFL investigation into a six-year Victorian-based club drought was launched, with the ensuing years resulting in 12 premierships shared amongst five Victorian clubs. This trend is likely to continue with Victorian clubs filling the top 3 positions on the 2021 AFL ladder currently.

Only Sydney (2012) and West Coast (2018) have won flags over this time, with non-Victorian clubs also making the Grand Final on 6 other occasions.

Departing AFL football operations manager Steven Hocking told ABC TV's Offsiders program the League wanted to know why.

"We are a little bit concerned in the recent decade and a half the Victorian clubs have definitely had a greater success," he said.

"We're interested to look at the structure between the Victorian clubs and Victorian competition underneath the AFL to see if there's any structural advantages related to that.

"In recent years we've clearly seen non-Victorian clubs as a whole under-perform in comparison with the Victorian clubs.

"And it may be a cyclical issue but what we're looking at is are there any structural issues that might explain that, or perhaps the end result of the work we do is that there aren't."


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If you've read this far, then you'll understand that this is a parody of an ABC article from May 2007.
The Prediction tag is predicting that such an investigation would never happen.

Edit: Vic team vs non-Vic team GF's over this 14 year period (higher placed H&A team in bold)

2019 Rich d GWS
2018 WC d Coll
2017 Rich d Adel
2016 WB d Syd
2015 Haw d WC
2014 Haw d Syd
2013 Haw d Frem
2012 Syd d Haw
2007 Geel d PA
 
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RUNVS

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I know this is a pisstake but interstate clubs have won 40% of grand finals over the past 20 years.

Guess what percentage interstate clubs make up of all teams in the AFL? That's right. 40%.
Have only won 1 Grand Final in 8 years though and Victorians clubs were not doing that badly before the AFL launched an investigation.
 

OnlyPowerForever

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I know this is a pisstake but interstate clubs have won 40% of grand finals over the past 20 years.

Guess what percentage interstate clubs make up of all teams in the AFL? That's right. 40%.
It is deliberately raising an issue in a different way, but the premise is true.

Using your rationale, what was the percentage of Victorian clubs premierships over the 20 years to 2007 when the AFL felt the need to investigate?

FWIW, I think it is cyclical, however I don’t think the AFL’s actions indicate they believe it was, or is.
 

RUNVS

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It is deliberately raising an issue in a different way, but the premise is true.

Using your rationale, what was the percentage of Victorian clubs premierships over the 20 years to 2007 when the AFL felt the need to investigate?

FWIW, I think it is cyclical, however I don’t think the AFL’s actions indicate they believe it was, or is.
There were only 6 years in a row where a Victorian side had not won the flag which wasn't that many.
 

Teen Wolf

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If that's a parody, where's the punchline? I guess there's something funny about a person stewing in anger over a trivial matter for 14 years, at least.

Nobody at AFL House wants a situation where Richmond win 3 from 4 while the Suns finish in the bottom-third of the ladder every year. The difference is this time it's not very hard to figure out the reason for such a discrepancy. Ironically it has partly come about from the AFL's desire to expand the game in non-heartland areas.
 

juss

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I know this is a pisstake but interstate clubs have won 40% of grand finals over the past 20 years.

Guess what percentage interstate clubs make up of all teams in the AFL? That's right. 40%.
Correct.

The simplest way to tell if there is any glaring issues is to look at the break down of % per team, and then account for variance.

So all things being equal, 60% of the time the Premier should be a Victorian club, to allow for variance, periods of high success or failure, call it 55-65% would be acceptable. Anything lower or higher in the long term would probably suggest something worth investigating.

Worth noting that before GC and GWS came in, VIC Premiers should have accounted for 62.5% of Premiers, maybe give or take 5%.
 

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powerrrrrrrrrrrr

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I think a huge part of the recent dominance by Victorian Premiers (largely Hawks and Richmond) has developed due to the timing that GC and GWS came into the comp before these eras and compromised multiple drafts.

When other interstate teams would have been rebuilding and getting top access to the drafts, they were pushed down the pecking order of these two teams.

This is in stark contrast to these two powerhouse clubs who 15 years ago hit the drafts and stocked up on multiple high picks which formed the base of their premiership dominance.

Not only did lacking access to the top talent reduce sides chances to rebuild in a normal fashion, it aided the top sides in staying up the top who had already developed their elite talent and were playing sides that didn’t get that opportunity.

Then on top of that, free agency came into the competition. Of course players who had played in bottom teams all their careers then wanted to go to these top teams which again aided their ongoing cycle of dominance.

Taking nothing away from these teams that have won, they made the most of the timings.

But if those compromised drafts didn’t exist, I don’t believe we would have seen this ongoing cycle of dominance by 2 teams over this period and that is a huge reason for the Victorian dominance.

2011 is a perfect example of this.
Port, Adelaide, Brisbane and Freo made up 4 of the bottom 6 teams (excluding the suns). However with GWS taking a lot of the top talent that draft all those clubs were heavily disadvantaged. A few years later, port lost 2 prelims, Freo loose a GF. Adelaide loose a GF and recently lions loose a prelim.

With 1 or 2 of those top end talents from that draft, would these interstate teams have gone an extra step or two and won? Very possibly and then we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
 
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Shane Heard

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One solution put forward at the time was a handicap system given to non Victorian clubs during Melbourne ground played games along with abandoning coin tosses and allowing interstate sides to choose an end of their favour.

3 goal handicap in for every visiting team.

This suggestion was flatly rejected by all Victorian clubs on the grounds of insanity.
 

MF

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Has to be because the Grand Final is played in Victoria

I mean Victorian teams struggled last year when they were away from Vic all year, oh wait........
You do realise there's over 100 years of data that strongly suggests the home team has an advantage over the away team right?
 

estibador

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Just stage the entire competition interstate for a year (say for example, in Queensland) and see how it goes.
How about we aim for a sample size greater than one?

Lets make a rule that any time it's a Vic vs non-Vic GF the non-Vic club gets to host the game.

I bet we'd start to see a distinct trend emerge over time.
 

HaroLad

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How about we aim for a sample size greater than one?

Lets make a rule that any time it's a Vic vs non-Vic GF the non-Vic club gets to host the game.

I bet we'd start to see a distinct trend emerge over time.
Non-Vics seething. It's our competition, and you're only in it because we invited you.

You had your chance to prove 'Vic Bias' in finals last year and you blew it. You couldn't even get one team into the Grand Final.

The Grand Final will be at the G for the next 50 years (and even longer) and it's never going to change.
 

OnlyPowerForever

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Non-Vics seething. It's our competition, and you're only in it because we invited you.

You had your chance to prove 'Vic Bias' in finals last year and you blew it. You couldn't even get one team into the Grand Final.

The Grand Final will be at the G for the next 50 years (and even longer) and it's never going to change.
Do you, as a Geelong supporter, support your club and coach commenting every year about hosting a home final? If you do, you may notice the irony in your statement.
 

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