Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 2

[Gethelred]

This is a sensitive area for some. With that in mind, I'm going to remind a few posters a few things:

• personal attacks are against forum rules. From this point, any attacks that are directed at another poster will be treated with a warning, then infractions and threadbans if it continues.
• the spread of misinformation is also against the rules. This is taken very seriously by moderation, and you will be asked to support your opinion from time to time. If you cannot satisfy this, you will be provided an opportunity to retract your post; if you do not, you will receive an infraction and a threadban on that basis.

This is a forum for adults, and I'd appreciate you all treating each other appropriately.

 

[Visions]

Speculation that Ukraine has used Russian manned oil rigs in the Black sea (and maybe Snake Island) as target practice for newly delivered HiMARS.

 

[Jello_B]

Does the world go MAD if Russia tactically nukes Lithuania? Not sure Russia has much choice as an attack mechanism, can’t see them sending their 1960s tanks.

 

[Visions]

Does the world go MAD if Russia tactically nukes Lithuania? Not sure Russia has much choice as an attack mechanism, can’t see them sending their 1960s tanks.

They have already sent their 60’s tanks to Ukraine so probably would have to send WWII era tanks to Lithuania.

Whether it’s nukes or other military equipment, any attack on Lithuania would need to be met with a military response by NATO. Otherwise the whole premise of NATO ceases to exist and Russia would then know they have free reign to attack any country they like in Europe.

 

[Saint]

They have already sent their 60’s tanks to Ukraine so probably would have to send WWII era tanks to Lithuania.

Whether it’s nukes or other military equipment, any attack on Lithuania would need to be met with a military response by NATO. Otherwise the whole premise of NATO ceases to exist and Russia would then know they have free reign to attack any country they like in Europe.

It's wrong to say it would mean WW3, because as long as NATO reassures China that they're not going to occupy Russia at the end, it's just Russia v the World. That Special Operation would be "Special" in the same sense as the "Special" Olympics.

Russia would surrender within a month if they rolled tanks into Lithuania. Don't forget how badly supply chains through Belarus went for their attack on Kyiv. The same would need to happen through Belarus and while that was happening. A counter-attack from NATO could come through Latvia, Estonia, Georgia, Ukraine. There's no way Russia could defend that front while still committing to offensives.

Even the most boot-licking of generals wouldn't say it's even a remote possibility to invade Lithuania via Belarus and also defend the motherland.

 

[Jello_B]

It's wrong to say it would mean WW3, because as long as NATO reassures China that they're not going to occupy Russia at the end, it's just Russia v the World. That Special Operation would be "Special" in the same sense as the "Special" Olympics.

Russia would surrender within a month if they rolled tanks into Lithuania. Don't forget how badly supply chains through Belarus went for their attack on Kyiv. The same would need to happen through Belarus and while that was happening. A counter-attack from NATO could come through Latvia, Estonia, Georgia, Ukraine. There's no way Russia could defend that front while still committing to offensives.

Even the most boot-licking of generals wouldn't say it's even a remote possibility to invade Lithuania via Belarus and also defend the motherland.

Exactly, I can’t see them invading Lithuania. Would they nuke it though on the basis of self defence for Kaliningrad, not so sure about that. Russia seem pretty wedged here, and they’ve opened their mouth now.

 

[Saint]

Exactly, I can’t see them invading Lithuania. Would they nuke it though on the basis of self defence for Kaliningrad, not so sure about that. Russia seem pretty wedged here, and they’ve opened their mouth now.

Nuking it on the basis of self defence would draw the same response as invasion. If they're dropping ICBMs on everyone who is perceived to upset them, then they can never be trusted again and would need to be fully neutralised (i.e. Putin removed, military disabled).

 

[Kwality]

They have already sent their 60’s tanks to Ukraine so probably would have to send WWII era tanks to Lithuania.

Whether it’s nukes or other military equipment, any attack on Lithuania would need to be met with a military response by NATO. Otherwise the whole premise of NATO ceases to exist and Russia would then know they have free reign to attack any country they like in Europe.

NATO who?

The Yanks arent going to war & the Europeans are impotent.

 

[Jello_B]

Nuking it on the basis of self defence would draw the same response as invasion. If they're dropping ICBMs on everyone who is perceived to upset them, then they can never be trusted again and would need to be fully neutralised (i.e. Putin removed, military disabled).

So MAD then. What else can Russia do here? They’ve shown they won’t allow any threats to the lands of Russia.

 

[Jello_B]

NATO who?

The Yanks arent going to war & the Europeans are impotent.

I’m not sure if the US would launch a full scale war with Russia over a few supply lines through Lithuania.

 

[Saint]

So MAD then. What else can Russia do here? They’ve shown they won’t allow any threats to the lands of Russia.

If Russia attacked Lithuania, I'd expect a conventional attack on Russia, probably via Ukrainian territory at first.

I don't think either Russia or NATO would choose to go nuclear, even tactical.

 

[Jello_B]

If Russia attacked Lithuania, I'd expect a conventional attack on Russia, probably via Ukrainian territory at first.

I don't think either Russia or NATO would choose to go nuclear, even tactical.

A conventional attack on Russia by the US and allied Europe (I’m not sure Europe would join but theoretically let’s assume they do) would see Russia dismantled. Russia wouldn’t respond with a nuclear launch?

 

[Saint]

A conventional attack on Russia by the US and allied Europe (I’m not sure Europe would join but theoretically let’s assume they do) would see Russia dismantled. Russia wouldn’t respond with a nuclear launch?

What would be the end game or the strategic benefit of any first nuclear strike? A strike of any sort on Lithuania won't suddenly see them surrender. And attacking the infrastructure would slow supplies, not speed them up.

Destroy a few cities or bases around the world? Wouldn't protect them, in fact it would make them less safe. If it's Russia v NATO, there's no MAD, just RAD and some damage to parts of the rest of the world. But it would never get that far because nobody would ever launch the first one.

 

[Jello_B]

What would be the end game or the strategic benefit of any first nuclear strike? A strike of any sort on Lithuania won't suddenly see them surrender. And attacking the infrastructure would slow supplies, not speed them up.

Destroy a few cities or bases around the world? Wouldn't protect them, in fact it would make them less safe. If it's Russia v NATO, there's no MAD, just RAD and some damage to parts of the rest of the world. But it would never get that far because nobody would ever launch the first one.

Let’s assume Russia does something to protect its supplies to Kaliningrad as that’s the situation I’m simulating.
It can’t invade, it could keep posturing. Or it could launch a tactical nuke (or other large explosive) at key points as a demonstration of intent.
It could arm the transport lines and fight through (similar to India and China hitting each other with sticks on their border dispute).
What other options does Russia have? Do nothing.

 

[Jello_B]

Let’s assume Russia does something to protect its supplies to Kaliningrad as that’s the situation I’m simulating.
It can’t invade, it could keep posturing. Or it could launch a tactical nuke (or other large explosive) at key points as a demonstration of intent.
It could arm the transport lines and fight through (similar to India and China hitting each other with sticks on their border dispute).
What other options does Russia have? Do nothing.

They could also use alternative forms of transportation.

 

[Jbudds]

Does the world go MAD if Russia tactically nukes Lithuania? Not sure Russia has much choice as an attack mechanism, can’t see them sending their 1960s tanks.

I don't know a lot about "tactical nukes", but my understanding they are more powerful than what was dropped on Japan. I would say it would be a pretty big deal if they did.

 

[Saint]

They could also use alternative forms of transportation.

Yep, it's 1,000km by ship compared to 700 by rail/road.

They're not exactly starving them out.

What on earth would they strike to "demonstrate intent"? A signal box? If they attack a military installation, that's a declaration of war, no matter what they call it. And Kaliningrad is 100km from Lithuania while Lithuania is 400km from the rest of Russia.

None of this makes any sense. Russia will cry and moan for some sort of sympathy, receive none and continue the self-victimisation.

 

[Jbudds]

Lots of people going to Ukraine these days...

 

[Jello_B]

Lots of people going to Ukraine these days...

Tropic Thunder 2?

 

[wannabejack]

Russian journalist's Nobel Peace Prize medal auctioned for record $148.6 million to help Ukrainian children

The gold Nobel Peace Prize medal auctioned off by Russian journalist Dmitry Muratov to raise money for Ukrainian child refugees sells for $US103.5 million, shattering the old record for such a sale.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Jello_B]

Russian journalist's Nobel Peace Prize medal auctioned for record $148.6 million to help Ukrainian children

The gold Nobel Peace Prize medal auctioned off by Russian journalist Dmitry Muratov to raise money for Ukrainian child refugees sells for $US103.5 million, shattering the old record for such a sale.

www.abc.net.au

Pretty cool. I wonder if they thought of doing a go fund me type schitck and putting the medal in a museum. Imagine the worldwide support and what the price could have reached

 

[Frank Grimes]

I don't know a lot about "tactical nukes", but my understanding they are more powerful than what was dropped on Japan. I would say it would be a pretty big deal if they did.

Going from vague memory the smallest tactical nuke is about half as powerful as the ones dropped on Japan. There are varying degrees of tactical nukes power/destruction depending on the situation.

The largest nuke ever detonate in a test was the Tzar Bomba that absolutely dwarfs the nukes dropped on Japan which is scary.

I think Russia will be reluctant to use tactical nukes in nearby countries. Not only because of international pressure and possible escalation, but also because the winds could blow radiation back into Russia borders.

 

[madmug]

Does the world go MAD if Russia tactically nukes Lithuania? Not sure Russia has much choice as an attack mechanism, can’t see them sending their 1960s tanks.

RF going berserk over Lithuania enforcing EU rules over transfer of goods to Kaliningrad.

Meanwhile the RF wont allow safe passage of Ukraine grain to Africa.

Go figure the twisted logic.

 

[Jello_B]

RF going berserk over Lithuania enforcing EU rules over transfer of goods to Kaliningrad.

Meanwhile the RF wont allow safe passage of Ukraine grain to Africa.

Go figure the twisted logic.

Pretty simple logic really. One is supplying to their own country and the other is exporting. You’ve got to understand the lunacy of the guy and then everything actually fits neatly.

 

[Power Raid]

Does the world go MAD if Russia tactically nukes Lithuania? Not sure Russia has much choice as an attack mechanism, can’t see them sending their 1960s tanks.

yes and so be it

one has to draw a line and the use of nuclear weapons by anyone, should be met with it..........even if it results in "the final solution"

 

[adogsfan5]

Lots of people going to Ukraine these days...

Why would anyone go there now? I don’t get it..? Isn’t it dangerous?