NFL Which Team Will Win the Super Bowl?

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

haha... dream on. Ravens wont get an interception off Manning.

That's a big call there buddy. He threw 3 against Chiefs. For him not to throw any the Colts would have to win fairly comfortably. Which I dont expect to happen. A tighter contest would surely mean an INT or two.

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

That's a big call there buddy. He threw 3 against Chiefs. For him not to throw any the Colts would have to win fairly comfortably. Which I dont expect to happen. A tighter contest would surely mean an INT or two.

Well he has only had 12 interceptions all year... 3 of those came last week... in only two other games has he had multiple interceptions.

He has gone 9 games out of 17 without an interception

Probability lies with him not getting intercepted. The Baltimore D beats up on teams like Cleveland, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Oakland... turnover proned Atlanta, Denver (plummer)...

Indy are not those teams and are much more efficient on offensive side of ball.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

Well he has only had 12 interceptions all year... 3 of those came last week... in only two other games has he had multiple interceptions.

He has gone 9 games out of 17 without an interception

Probability lies with him not getting intercepted. The Baltimore D beats up on teams like Cleveland, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Oakland... turnover proned Atlanta, Denver (plummer)...

Indy are not those teams and are much more efficient on offensive side of ball.

That's all fair. But show me his Playoff stats. I can't remember them off-hand, but I know it's not so good. The TD-INT figure.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

Actually here you go...

Manning Career Post-Season stats

vs

Manning Career Regular Season stats

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

Post-Season:

62% completions, 7.6 yrds/ave, 16 TD, 11 INT, 14 sacks, 87.6 rating,

4-6 W-L record

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

Actually here you go...

Manning Career Post-Season stats

vs

Manning Career Regular Season stats

Um... they arent that bad.

Just for the viewers at home reading...

2003 - 9 TD 4 Ints (3 games)
2004 - 4 TD 2 Ints (2 games)
2005 - 1 TD 0 Ints (1 game)

2006 he has the 1 TD 3 Ints... which is irregular when comparing against this regular season and past post seasons.

McNair last playoff appearance = 2003.... 2 TD 4 Ints... 2002... 3 TD 2 Ints

They play different roles, and McNair is now on a different team. However I would say Manning is due for an explosion of TD's

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

Post-Season:

62% completions, 7.6 yrds/ave, 16 TD, 11 INT, 14 sacks, 87.6 rating,

4-6 W-L record

That record spans 8 years... a lot of crap has gone under the water since then. Got to be realistic about this... experience has value also.

first 3 appearances were losses....1999,2000,2002....

4-3 since... 10 playoff appearances...

QB Rating in 2003 & 2004 over 100!!
2005 over 90!!

QB ratings are dubious but they still hold some value, which is why they are still used. Which proves he has nothing to do with the Colts losing those playoff games.

Indy got this in the bag.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

While Manning is generally great, but so-so in playoffs, this has to be considered specifically for the coming game.

i.e., pain for manning. The most likely outcome, statistically, mathematical odds, etc, is that Peyton's record vs the Ravens record means he most likely will throw several INTs. If he does this, an even higher mathematical odds that Ravens win when this happens to their opposition.

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

While Manning is generally great, but so-so in playoffs, this has to be considered specifically for the coming game.

i.e., pain for manning. The most likely outcome, statistically, mathematical odds, etc, is that Peyton's record vs the Ravens record means he most likely will throw several INTs. If he does this, an even higher mathematical odds that Ravens win when this happens to their opposition.

I think Manning is 9 TD and 4 INT against Ravens. Just off memory

make that 9 and 3...

last 2 meetings vs Ravens = 3 TD ... 0 Int

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

What would be interesting is to break the stats down.

Manning W-L vs Ravens.
Manning TD-INT vs Ravens when Colts win.
Manning TD-INT vs Ravens when Ravens win.
Manning W-L @ Ravens.
Manning TD-INT @ Ravens.

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

What would be interesting is to break the stats down.

Manning W-L vs Ravens.
Manning TD-INT vs Ravens when Colts win.
Manning TD-INT vs Ravens when Ravens win.
Manning W-L @ Ravens.
Manning TD-INT @ Ravens.

best i've got is above.

I've realised we have drifted into wrong thread. haha.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

best i've got is above.

I've realised we have drifted into wrong thread. haha.

Lol, going off-topic is a part of every good thread on Big Footy.
Statistically (haha) 95% of threads do.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

Here you go.

Peyton's stats versus every team

9-3 TD-INT...you were very close.

Note: Not seen in this page, but the longest pass Manning has thrown against Ravens in 2004 and 2005 was 28 yards and 30 yards. This year the Ravens are even better, so there'll be lots of short check-down throws as the Ravens D closes up the long-ball, and if the Ravens can muscle a lead at some point, then Peyton will start having to throw longer to get them back in the game, and therefore, probably will throw a few picks.

 

[dspeed]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

Indy got this in the bag.

haha, big call, we'll see on sunday won't we

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

Maybe someone should set up a new thread ready for me

'Daniel's Brag Thread for when Indianapolis win'

 

[dspeed]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

Maybe someone should set up a new thread ready for me

'Daniel's Brag Thread for when Indianapolis win'

you do realise that if the colts lose this is going to blow up in your face don't you?

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

The Chiefs, ok, but the Ravens would be a major and unlikely victory.

Many tipped an underdog Chiefs who were largely incompetent all year, purely because of the Run D v LJ matchup, but many still confidently predicted Colts/Manning to outgun them. Instead, Manning hobbled past them with 3 INTS, the Colts totally dominating possession 3:1 against a tired D took 3.5 qrts to put them away, only 6-0 and 9-0 to show for it.

Any similar or even improved performance against a status quo Ravens performance will mean a loss to the Colts. You'd need the Ravens to really play badly, or fall behind on the scoreboard by 3 TD's early, AND the Colts especially Manning and the Run-O to play extraordinarily.

Always possible, we ain't counting them out, no one could, but realistically at this point pre-game, it's unlikely. Especially not one INT. I would put money on Manning throwing even at least 1 in a winning cause, let alone 2 or 3 in a losing cause.

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

you do realise that if the colts lose this is going to blow up in your face don't you?

No point sitting on the fence

If it comes out as I expect then maybe I earn a bit of respect.

 

[Woodson]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

Here you go.

Peyton's stats versus every team

9-3 TD-INT...you were very close.

Note: Not seen in this page, but the longest pass Manning has thrown against Ravens in 2004 and 2005 was 28 yards and 30 yards. This year the Ravens are even better, so there'll be lots of short check-down throws as the Ravens D closes up the long-ball, and if the Ravens can muscle a lead at some point, then Peyton will start having to throw longer to get them back in the game, and therefore, probably will throw a few picks.

Hmmm, interesting lowdown there g.g.

btw, this week's game means Peyton Manning has played the most play-off games in NFL history without appearing in a SB. I think he has reached a Conf Chmpship ...once???

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

Hmmm, interesting lowdown there g.g.

btw, this week's game means Peyton Manning has played the most play-off games in NFL history without appearing in a SB. I think he has reached a Conf Chmpship ...once???

Yeah thats right. Damn New England hey.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

Tho the team is less overall compared to last year's version, and they had a far easier road and combatants to reach SB last year than this year, Peyton/Colts are really running out of chances.

Last year was their very best year. They blew it. This year, they'd need to perform outside of themselves for 3 increasingly tougher games in a row. Otherwise they'll never get another chance.

 

[Woodson]

Re: Road to the Superbowl...recap

Otherwise they'll never get another chance.

Funnily enough, I've heard this line for the past few years. As soon as thier D 'becomes alot better' ...the Colts will be a genuine contender at last.

Still getting a lump in my throat each time I think of last years 'immaculate win' ...let's recap...

Big Ben comes out SMOKIN', Steel Curtain shuts Manning down early, the false start that stung INDY results in FG before HT. The BUS rumbles in for a TD (21-3), the reserval INT of Polamalu, Manning fires up, the underated rookie McFadden game saving pass deflection in the endzone, the two Joey Porter sacks, the fumble, the tackle and the miss. GAME OVER.... my second happiest day of 2006.

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

Agree there. This is a far more inferior team to that of last year. They kicked ass on D there for a while last year. They'll be right.

So long as Manning is around the window will be open because they will be able to put points on the board. Similar to any other great QB thats been around.. but yes its the pieces around them that take you to the next step.

Here we go... Steelers again. haha. Thats what I dont get... Colts almost had the Steelers there, and they were the team that went all the way. People make it sound like the Colts just stink in the playoffs, cant score, arent themselves, etc etc. But realistically there is just some bad luck in there.. still you make your own luck I guess... its still luck all the same.

We all know how the game works... 1 turnover, 1 tackle, field position. Its all part of the game but I dont believe it has anything to do with skill and preparation. Those things can overcome such events. But the game is so unpredictable at the best of times.

Thats sport for ya though

 

[Woodson]

Re: Which Team will win the Superbowl?

We all know how the game works... 1 turnover, 1 tackle, field position. Its all part of the game but I dont believe it has anything to do with skill and preparation. Those things can overcome such events. But the game is so unpredictable at the best of times.

Thats sport for ya though

Puts a brand new 'perspective' into the UGLY WIN... being spoilt with moderate success will never grasp the concept of 'the ugly win' to those supporters, like myself, until the losing starts hitting home HARD. That's a fact.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Road to the Superbowl...recap

Funnily enough, I've heard this line for the past few years. As soon as thier D 'becomes alot better' ...the Colts will be a genuine contender at last.

Still getting a lump in my throat each time I think of last years 'immaculate win' ...let's recap...

Big Ben comes out SMOKIN', Steel Curtain shuts Manning down early, the false start that stung INDY results in FG before HT. The BUS rumbles in for a TD (21-3), the reserval INT of Polamalu, Manning fires up, the underated rookie McFadden game saving pass deflection in the endzone, the two Joey Porter sacks, the fumble, the tackle and the miss. GAME OVER.... my second happiest day of 2006.

The thing tho is that last year Indy specifically bolstered their D. Pretty much their whole first half of the season, if not more, Peyton was throwing less, they were running more, and were relying more on their D. Deliberate attempt by Dungy. Manning threw for less only because they tried to become more D-orientated to fix up the excessive reliance on the O which cruelled them the previous playoff years.

They even went 13-0 or whatever. They were THE favorite team if there's ever been one. They were up against a wild card Steelers who really they should've put away. Tragic non-Football matters aside. When on the field it's business. There are 50 guys on the roster, a good portion of them should/would have stepped up regardless.

However, you could ALMOST excuse that 14-2 or 15-1 type season for failing because - a) Minnesotta bombed in the 90's, b) Pittsburgh, having beaten NE and Philly (all 15-1 teams) the year prior, bombed that year.

But you'd think last year, a non-rookie QB, but actually a 5 year verteran passing legend, and this stiffened D, and no 15-1 type teams challenging them, they should have done better.