Who Misses Out on the 8?

[fairdinkum]

Here are the contenders imo. Bold = guaranteed to make finals.

West Coast
Sydney
Carlton
Adelaide
Essendon
St. Kilda
North Melbourne
Geelong
Fremantle
Collingwood
Hawthorn
---------------
Richmond

My 2c.

*Fremantle will take time to adapt to Lyon's gameplan and are 50/50 to do so in time to make the eight this year.
*North Melbourne's best is good enough to beat the contenders but they rarely play it for more than 1.5 quarters per match. Still too inconsistent from quarter to quarter and match to match. Will be lucky to play finals.
*Adelaide are pretenders and I don't think they will make finals, but if they do, they have the fixture to thank for it.
*St. Kilda are not playing finals this year.
*Richmond will not recover from early tough draw.

Will make it:
West Coast, Sydney, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn

Might make it:
Freo, North, Adel

Forget about it:
St. Kilda, Richmond

 

[syl]

For example, his ladder would be the most lopsided in AFL history with the bottom 8 sides sharing in 48 wins altogether.

So his ladder is ****ing shite.

 

[Andrew Mc]

In example, his ladder would be the most lopsided in AFL history with the bottom 8 sides sharing in 48 wins altogether.

So his ladder is ****ing shite.

Not that unrealistic - the bottom 8 sides at this point have won 8 games between them (with 3 of those wins being matches between the bottom 8). Combine that with the bottom 8 winning 52 matches between them in 2011 and a new team which will be lucky to win a game or 2, and it is very possible.

 

[syl]

Not that unrealistic - the bottom 8 sides at this point have won 8 games between them (with 3 of those wins being matches between the bottom 8). Combine that with the bottom 8 winning 52 matches between them in 2011 and a new team which will be lucky to win a game or 2, and it is very possible.

Last year 11.5 wins was enough, now people suggest 14 wins this year?

It's ridiculous. You can't just use 5 weeks of stats and base a season on it.

The same people making all these stupidly shortsighted threads are the ones frothing over Essendon making the top 4 last year after 5-6 weeks. Morons.

That ladder is a joke, all he's done is ordered the teams out by what he thinks is right and then given them the win when they play a team of lower stature (in his mind) - then voila!

In that crap ladder we're discussing, they probably have Richmond winning 8 games (all against lower sides as per EVERYTHING IT IS BASED ON) - But I can guarantee you that Richmond will upset some sides above them and conversely, lose some to the teams below.

Anyone who thinks 14 wins to make the finals doesn't understand the AFL season and its ups and downs.

 

[Andrew Mc]

You came out and said 48 games won for the bottom 8 was unrealistic. I disagree, it's quite possible considering the bottom 8 won just 52 last year (that's not just based on 5 games, that's fact) and we have a new team that will struggle to win any games (unlikely they'll win 3, which is what GC managed last year).

 

[THRILLHO]

Man, that would be an epic final series...

How early do you think I'd have to lineup for a seat for the North vs. Fremantle game?

 

[Shadow Hunter]

Richmond could sneak in but they need to win their next three and gain confidence and momentum, will be a tough fight for all those teams from fifth to 12th.

 

[Plugger35]

My 2c.

*Fremantle will take time to adapt to Lyon's gameplan and are 50/50 to do so in time to make the eight this year.
*North Melbourne's best is good enough to beat the contenders but they rarely play it for more than 1.5 quarters per match. Still too inconsistent from quarter to quarter and match to match. Will be lucky to play finals.
*Adelaide are pretenders and I don't think they will make finals, but if they do, they have the fixture to thank for it.
*St. Kilda are not playing finals this year.
*Richmond will not recover from early tough draw.

Will make it:
West Coast, Sydney, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn

Might make it:
Freo, North, Adel

Forget about it:
St. Kilda, Richmond

Not sure how you can say Freo, North and Adelaide might make it and St Kilda won't. I still think we are better than all three of those teams, yes I know we lost to Freo but we should have won that game, and we beat both North and Adelaide comfortably last time we played them.

Not going to be easy though, dropping both the Port and Freo games could be costly as they were two games we should have won and we don't have the benefit of playing GC and GWS twice like Adelaide and North do.

We will find out more about our top 8 chances over the next 4 weeks when we play Hawthorn, Carlton, West Coast and Sydney. If we can win at least a couple of those games we will be right in the mix for top 8 but if we lose all 4 games it will be very difficult to make top 8.

 

[syl]

Richmond could sneak in but they need to win their next three and gain confidence and momentum, will be a tough fight for all those teams from fifth to 12th.

Against Port, Sydney and Essendon?

 

[Baldur]

Given the lopsided nature of the fixture this year. It is far too soon to tell how teams are really going.

As for the Saints. The next four weeks will tell the tale. We lose all four & we are done. Win half & it’s another story.

I have watched all our games & I cannot tell where we are at present. But the Essendon’s failure to turn up in the NAB game cost us in week one, we looked underdone. We wasted our chances in front of goal in the last qtr vrs Fremantle.

Our losses have been small & some of our wins big. Our percentage is the same as Carltons.

This year looks to be one where the difference between the top teams & the middle teams has lessened. I expect there will be a big log jam from about 4th to 12th & final eight will not be decided until the last week.

 

[KillaKanga]

North and Adelaide have been gifted 2 extra wins so should put them right in contention - whereas Adelaide IMO wouldn't normally be considered

Adelaide and North play 4 out of 4 possible games against GWS & GC

Brisbane, Demons, Saints and Sydney play 3

The Rest 2

This also doesn't take into account teams who play Brisbane and Melbourne, Port or Richmond who also seem like 'easy' wins for top 8 contenders.

I would also think the gimps who draft the draw would have in the back of their minds that they shafted North royally with there draw. The obvious stand out as the shocker for the year!

 

[eth-dog]

I have this for the final 8:

West Coast
Hawthorn
Sydney
Carlton
Essendon
Collingwood
Geelong
Richmond (Still think they're a big chance)
------------------------------------------------
North Melbourne
Fremantle
St. Kilda
Adelaide

 

[Ed_Gein]

West Coast
Sydney
Carlton
Adelaide
Essendon
St. Kilda
Geelong
Fremantle
Collingwood
Hawthorn

forget the rest.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Essendon have started well but are far from montys. If our injury trends continue then our second half could be very poor and we might tumble down the ladder.

Plus, form wise, we’ll have a better idea of the real improvement once we’ve played a few games we’re “supposed” to win. Traditionally we drop quite a few of these.

 

[Plugger35]

Adelaide and North play 4 out of 4 possible games against GWS & GC

Brisbane, Demons, Saints and Sydney play 3

The Rest 2

This also doesn't take into account teams who play Brisbane and Melbourne, Port or Richmond who also seem like 'easy' wins for top 8 contenders.

I would also think the gimps who draft the draw would have in the back of their minds that they shafted North royally with there draw. The obvious stand out as the shocker for the year!

I wouldn't say Richmond are easy wins for top 8 contenders, they were competitive against Carlton and Collingwood and took West Coast to the wire.

Port have also been very competitive in all their games and Melbourne were tough opposition for us last week and was no easy win, certainly not the walkovers that playing GC or GWS are at present.

Playing both GC and GWS twice is still a significant advantage for Adelaide and North.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Last year 11.5 wins was enough, now people suggest 14 wins this year?

It's ridiculous. You can't just use 5 weeks of stats and base a season on it.

14 is ridiculous, 13 however is not.

There's 44 more premiership points in the melting pot - as well as a statistically superior finals series (i.e 8/18 rather than 8/16)

As such - the balance of probabilities suggests 12.5wins + for finals going forward

 

[syl]

14 is ridiculous, 13 however is not.

There's 44 more premiership points in the melting pot - as well as a statistically superior finals series (i.e 8/18 rather than 8/16)

As such - the balance of probabilities suggests 12.5wins + for finals going forward

Yes, my issue is with flogs saying 14 to make it. 13 and you're IN!!!

 

[jusjoshin]

How early do you think I'd have to lineup for a seat for the North vs. Fremantle game?

We'd pack out Patterson's Curse, but I don't think you'd have trouble getting a seat at the G, or Eddy's Hat.

 

[TheNextBigThing]

After this week North have the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide away and Brisbane Lions, we must win all 3 of these if we want to play finals, can be 6-3 after 9 assuming we lose this week and could set up our season nicely.

 

[KillaKanga]

I wouldn't say Richmond are easy wins for top 8 contenders, they were competitive against Carlton and Collingwood and took West Coast to the wire.

Port have also been very competitive in all their games and Melbourne were tough opposition for us last week and was no easy win, certainly not the walkovers that playing GC or GWS are at present.

Playing both GC and GWS twice is still a significant advantage for Adelaide and North.

I actually don't think Rich, Melb or Port are gimmes. Esp for North.

Significant??? You play Gold Coast twice in the 1st 11 games? We get 1 extra game than you do? That is significant????

Then the Saints get a significant advantage over 10 other teams looking for finals?

Before people come a trollin' Of course playing GWS & GC twice each is an advantage. The fixture in NOT even!!! If we get to play them twice each next year it would be ludicrous!!!

 

[daffo]

We had Port Adelaide x2, Melbourne x2, Gold Coast x1 last year
We have Port Adelaide x1, Melbourne x1, Gold Coast x2, GWS x2.

That is 5 in 2011, 6 in 2012, the +1 accounts for the extra team. People need to stop making bullshit excuses.

All that proves is that you should of made finals last year.

 

[Slattery_20]

But the Essendon’s failure to turn up in the NAB game cost us in week one, we looked underdone. We wasted our chances in front of goal in the last qtr vrs Fremantle.

Us missing a game cost you over four weeks later?? Wow you guys are sensitive to any little upset!

 

[Whatname]

In my opinion these are the games Freo can just about bank

6 - Gold Coast (A)
7 - Port (H)
10 - Adel (H)
15 - W.B. (H)
16 - Melb (ES)
17 - GWS (H)
21 - Rich (H)
23 - Melb (H)

+ the 3 wins we already have which gives us 11 wins.

Our finals destiny will depend on the results of the two derbies, Essendon at home and two trips to AAMI stadium. Personally I think we could take a Derby and beat Essendon at home. Can we beat Port at AAMI not so sure with their improved form and I would say we are very unlikely to beat Adelaide at AAMI. All up I have us at around 12 to 13 wins.

FWIW I think 12 wins will get you in the eight, 13-14 will get you 5 - 6 and 15 wins top 4.

 

[Quokka]

Blaming fixtures will still be a cop out imo, Freo don't play either GWS or GC twice.

Our doubles are Melbourne, Richmond, Adelaide and West Coast so no real complaints. I'd put us about 70/30 to make finals, we'd have to improve a lot on the last few weeks but it's easy to see where it can come from. Still early in the season but it's great to see it so close in the top 10 or 11.

 

[Coolangatta]

Have no idea about the order, but I can't see the top 8 being anything other than Carlton, Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood, West Coast, Sydney, Essendon and North Melbourne/Adelaide. More likely North.

I don't know why so many people think the Dockers will make the 8. For that to happen, one of Essendon or North will have to miss the 8 and I don't see that happening.