Banter Who will be better in 2024? Carlton or Collingwood?

[Pleasedontfail11]

So i am correct, that's concerning and very similar to Geelong last year look at what happened to them.

Geelong had 12 in 2022 and going into 2023 would have had 16 players who would have been 30+ that year, however hey got rid of Selwood, Higgins and Dahlhaus leaving it at 13.
Geelong won a premiership with 12 players aged 30+ and then fell down with 13 players aged 30+. It might have been because 13 is an unlucky number. However im willing to bet that its a bit more complicated than that.

Edit: all of this data was at the start of the season.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Compared to Geelong Collingwood had 6 players aged 30+ at the start of 2023 compared to Geelongs 12 in 2022 and Collingwood will have 9 aged 30+ in 2024 compared to Geelong's 13 in 2023.

 

[Morro]

This is one of the harder calls as a neutral.

Carlton on paper are stacked IMO but which team is the real one, early 2023 or late 2023

Pies winning so many games by a kick but always finding a way, they are potentially only a goal or so a game away from missing the 8 all together.

Blues for me, but I think I can speak for all neutrals when I say, ideally they both cave in.

 

[juss]

I could see it going either way. Collingwood are well-aged, which isn't always a bad thing, but it can also be like any premiership team, you're a bit less dog hungry than other sides who haven't won it and that can be a difference. Carlton you would think are one of those dog hungry sides, and probably have a better age profile for upside than Collingwood do.

It's Collingwood maintaining versus Carlton improving. I think Carlton are more likely to improve, than Collingwood maintaining themselves as the best side in the comp. But I could equally see Collingwood just go around again and make another top 2 finish.

Sitting on the fence until closer to the season.

 

[juss]

Not when you're going for back to back it's not.

Interesting comparison, did any of Hawthorn or Richmond as recent sides that won either B2B or 3 in a row or even Geelong with 3 in that 3 in 5 year period win it with 10+ over 30s?
That would be the best example of whether we've seen it before and the potential likelyhood of it happening, there's a fair bit of data from that above group.

 

[timokane]

Collingwood 1st and carlton 5th in 2024

 

[carlton_99]

Carlton on paper are stacked IMO but which team is the real one, early 2023 or late 2023

For the sake of my health and wellbeing I sincerely hope it is not the early-2023 one

 

[Morro]

For the sake of my health and wellbeing I sincerely hope it is not the early-2023 one

You would think not, but you guys keep finding new ways to fail.

 

[Chief]

Carlton on paper are stacked IMO but which team is the real one, early 2023 or late 2023

I'll give you 80% it's the late season performance we see this year.

Maybe.

 

[Morro]

I'll give you 80% it's the late season performance we see this year.

Maybe.

I agree, but a man can dream

 

[10571z]

Carlton could easily revert back to their poor form now expectation has risen

 

[Robertio]

Carlton could easily revert back to their poor form now expectation has risen

Could easily win the premiership as well.

 

[Red_man2008]

I could see it going either way. Collingwood are well-aged, which isn't always a bad thing, but it can also be like any premiership team, you're a bit less dog hungry than other sides who haven't won it and that can be a difference. Carlton you would think are one of those dog hungry sides, and probably have a better age profile for upside than Collingwood do.

It's Collingwood maintaining versus Carlton improving. I think Carlton are more likely to improve, than Collingwood maintaining themselves as the best side in the comp. But I could equally see Collingwood just go around again and make another top 2 finish.

Sitting on the fence until closer to the season.

In 2023 late Carlton were a 4-5 goal better side than Collingwood. Brisbane were similar vs us or Collingwood while playing at the Gabba. Different story at the G of course. If Carlton improve while Collingwood maintain they’ll blow straight past them. If Carlton just continue on their current path some luck in the draw while finishing top 4 Carlton could win the whole thing. With improvement adding EH and ZW while keeping a fit list Carlton should go past Collingwood. They’re running game plan is very much beatable, they often fall substantially behind in games and rely on running and risk to get back
Into games late in the last quarter. They need a lot of change to this. It comes down to how weak their talls are around the ground except for full back. Without mcstay and if mihocek can’t get a full season in they will fall off a little bit.

Teams like Carlton, GWS, Adelaide and Sydney could easily go past them this year. What have Collingwood gained this off season to keep them on that competitive edge?? Losing mcstay and Adams but gaining Schultz is still on the negative end.

 

[carlton_99]

In 2023 late Carlton were a 4-5 goal better side than Collingwood. Brisbane were similar vs us or Collingwood while playing at the Gabba. Different story at the G of course. If Carlton improve while Collingwood maintain they’ll blow straight past them. If Carlton just continue on their current path some luck in the draw while finishing top 4 Carlton could win the whole thing. With improvement adding EH and ZW while keeping a fit list Carlton should go past Collingwood. They’re running game plan is very much beatable, they often fall substantially behind in games and rely on running and risk to get back
Into games late in the last quarter. They need a lot of change to this. It comes down to how weak their talls are around the ground except for full back. Without mcstay and if mihocek can’t get a full season in they will fall off a little bit.

Teams like Carlton, GWS, Adelaide and Sydney could easily go past them this year. What have Collingwood gained this off season to keep them on that competitive edge?? Losing mcstay and Adams but gaining Schultz is still on the negative end.

Not sure Adams is really the loss some are making it out to be. He was injury prone and imo did not suit the HF role the Pies were playing him in. Think he is purely a contested mid and he is just not getting time there with the current suite of Pies mids. His main contribution was experience and leadership but Pies have heaps of that with the likes of Pendles, Sidebottom etc.

 

[doppleganger]

In 2023 late Carlton were a 4-5 goal better side than Collingwood.

The month when we put the feet up as top2 was locked in?

If Carlton improve while Collingwood maintain they’ll blow straight past them.

Of course, all teams are needing to improve, if you stand still you are going backwards.

If Carlton just continue on their current path some luck in the draw while finishing top 4 Carlton could win the whole thing. With improvement adding EH and ZW while keeping a fit list Carlton should go past Collingwood.

IMHO Harry is the key to Carlton in 2024.

They’re running game plan is very much beatable, they often fall substantially behind in games and rely on running and risk to get back
Into games late in the last quarter.

Interesting take, too influenced by the few barn storming finishes me thinks

In 2023 the Pies best quarter was Q1, we would get the lead and then control the game.

They need a lot of change to this. It comes down to how weak their talls are around the ground except for full back. Without mcstay and if mihocek can’t get a full season in they will fall off a little bit.

Our talls have been viewed as ordinary for a while, especially up forward, but the likes of Mihocek, Murphy, Howe, Cameron and Cox just produce quality output with little fanfare or hype.

Up forward we deliberately have the multitude of smaller marking types to create the swarm and many options.

Losing McStay hurts (but he missed a large part of 2023 anyway) and so yes if any club lost Mihocek, any club losing both their key forwards they would struggle.

Pies probably least impacted of any teams as we dont rely on them as much.

Teams like Carlton, GWS, Adelaide and Sydney could easily go past them this year. What have Collingwood gained this off season to keep them on that competitive edge?? Losing mcstay and Adams but gaining Schultz is still on the negative end.

Negative end of what?

We will upgrade the winning GF team.

It looms as a great season, Carlton will finish top2 IMHO (basing it on Harry McKay having a huge year).

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

 

[Chief]

I think they have a big year ahead of them. Can't be written off in any way.

 

[Arr0w]

Pies should be around the mark, but hard making B2B GFs, let alone winning them

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Teams like Carlton, GWS, Adelaide and Sydney could easily go past them this year. What have Collingwood gained this off season to keep them on that competitive edge?? Losing mcstay and Adams but gaining Schultz is still on the negative end.

Further development of Motlop and Hollands, addition of the other Hollands and the return of Williams could be enough to see Carlton go a step further in 2024.

 

[VinnieB]

Not sure Adams is really the loss some are making it out to be. He was injury prone and imo did not suit the HF role the Pies were playing him in. Think he is purely a contested mid and he is just not getting time there with the current suite of Pies mids. His main contribution was experience and leadership but Pies have heaps of that with the likes of Pendles, Sidebottom etc.

Schulz is a significant upgrade in the position Adams was asked to play.
Not only does he bring defensive pressure, but was their second leading goalkicker the past 2 seasons. In a Freo team that moves the ball slowly, he is going to love being at the Pies.

 

[VinnieB]

Geelong had 12 in 2022 and going into 2023 would have had 16 players who would have been 30+ that year, however hey got rid of Selwood, Higgins and Dahlhaus leaving it at 13.
Geelong won a premiership with 12 players aged 30+ and then fell down with 13 players aged 30+. It might have been because 13 is an unlucky number. However im willing to bet that its a bit more complicated than that.

Edit: all of this data was at the start of the season.

I think Geelong will finish ahead of Carlton this year.
The Blues rode a wave of emotion second half of the season. Now they need to start again. History suggests they are unlikely to maintain it and will disappoint their supporters once more.

 

[carlton_99]

Schulz is a significant upgrade in the position Adams was asked to play.
Not only does he bring defensive pressure, but was their second leading goalkicker the past 2 seasons. In a Freo team that moves the ball slowly, he is going to love being at the Pies.

Schultz is a great get - can be one of the best small forwards in the comp

 

[carlton_99]

Further development of Motlop and Hollands, addition of the other Hollands and the return of Williams could be enough to see Carlton go a step further in 2024.

If Orazio can get on the field can see him having an impact. Takes the pressure off the likes of Motlop, Durdin and Owies who are still relatively inexperienced

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

If Orazio can get on the field can see him having an impact. Takes the pressure off the likes of Motlop, Durdin and Owies who are still relatively inexperienced

Yeah, I was going to add him, but wasn’t sure how he was tracking.

 

[Robertio]

I think Geelong will finish ahead of Carlton this year.
The Blues rode a wave of emotion second half of the season. Now they need to start again. History suggests they are unlikely to maintain it and will disappoint their supporters once more.

Every team is starting again, lets see how your tip goes.